Unofficial Preview Elimination Final Discussion
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KissKiss
Norm Smith Medallist
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They are some big ins for the Blues but can't remember many teams going well with that many changes at once. Balance is so often thrown out or guys aren't fully fit.
I am slightly scared how we ate being set up as the clear favourite. Too many loses from that position to make me comfortable
I am slightly scared how we ate being set up as the clear favourite. Too many loses from that position to make me comfortable
mpal6
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Dalions
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I think atleast 4 of their ins have only missed a couple of games so I think the idea of them not being match fit is a bit of a stretch. They are probably going back to a team similar to when they played Collingwood in Round 21or 22.
Similar to Starcevich really.
- Aug 22, 2019
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Curnow kicked 4 goals against us in opening round, hope we capitalize on him being out.
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Section 5
Norm Smith Medallist
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Joyce emergency just a precaution for Payne
Fort back as emergency taking over from Smith. Experience i suppose in case Hippy is a late out.
Sharp covers a few spots.
Fort back as emergency taking over from Smith. Experience i suppose in case Hippy is a late out.
Sharp covers a few spots.
Section 5
Norm Smith Medallist
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Both teams injured players returning.
Docherty: played OR then missed the rest of H & A season
McGovern: Missed - R 24
McKay: Missed - R 20,23,24
Williams: Missed - R 19,20,21,24
De Koning: Missed - R 22,23,24
Cerra: Missed - R 22,23,24
Starcevich: missed R 24. Did not play VFL last week
Payne: Missed - R 18,19,20,21,22,23,24. Played VFL last week.
Docherty: played OR then missed the rest of H & A season
McGovern: Missed - R 24
McKay: Missed - R 20,23,24
Williams: Missed - R 19,20,21,24
De Koning: Missed - R 22,23,24
Cerra: Missed - R 22,23,24
Starcevich: missed R 24. Did not play VFL last week
Payne: Missed - R 18,19,20,21,22,23,24. Played VFL last week.
DevRoboGun
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I think Curnow is a massive out for them - the only way they could really get on top of us is dominating the forward line. Think we win this by 30+ now - and i'm not usually confident
maggotman
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Hi guys,
I have a very good ticket more or less on the wing if someone wants it. I can't on-sell it but it looks like I can transfer/gift it into someone else's name. Seat location is:
Section 204 ROW E SEAT 3**
Selling at cost
As a Vic member I couldn't afford the flights and accommodation
PM me and we'll go from there.
Don't stress if I don't get back to you immediately as I'm super busy, but I will get back to you before Saturday.
Go Lions
I have a very good ticket more or less on the wing if someone wants it. I can't on-sell it but it looks like I can transfer/gift it into someone else's name. Seat location is:
Section 204 ROW E SEAT 3**
Selling at cost
As a Vic member I couldn't afford the flights and accommodation
PM me and we'll go from there.
Don't stress if I don't get back to you immediately as I'm super busy, but I will get back to you before Saturday.
Go Lions
- May 3, 2015
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I think no Curnow is massive for us. Payne will struggle on McKay but if we can get Andrews or Lester intercepting we can hopefully keep him quiet. Really need the fired up Lester from when Doedee was about to replace him.
A lot of good matchups all over the ground. I think both teams will have solid plans for shutting down the opponents weapons. Will just come down to consistent intensity over the 4 quarters
A lot of good matchups all over the ground. I think both teams will have solid plans for shutting down the opponents weapons. Will just come down to consistent intensity over the 4 quarters
RoyBoy17
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I have no idea how this will pan out. Just been one of those seasons. Very even top 8. Midfield battle will be huge.
As we saw from last night doesn’t matter who is in or out. A consistent team performance across the board is what counts. Can’t rely on 2-3 players.
As we saw from last night doesn’t matter who is in or out. A consistent team performance across the board is what counts. Can’t rely on 2-3 players.
KissKiss
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I thought Andrews would normally take McKay as he often gets the taller guy - although that could be TDK I guess
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Payne to the best forward. Andrews to the next best.
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Slight edit, but totally agree.
After how badly Harris played trying to 'shut down' Hogan against GWS, I never want to see him do a pure stopper role again if we can avoid it. Get him up the ground, intercepting the ball and turning it back into good looks for us on turnover.
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Yeah he's definitely not a stopper and until Doedee replaces Lester he's our best bet as an interceptor
Dalions
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You would imagine McKay will likely get up the ground a bit and TDK coming back after quite a bit of time out may spend a fair bit of time at Full Forward.
So probably Payne will stay on TDK if that the case and Harris will man up on McKay when forward but if he gets up the ground probably drop off and play an intercept role.
Nunez
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Have a feeling Ashcroft is in for a BIG finals series.
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21 pages of all very interesting chat about matchups and various ins and outs and contingencies and whatnot.
End of the day the result will be influenced by two things and two things only:
On average across the season we lose 0.08 points per shot at goal, compared to expected score. This ranks us 14th in the comp for accuracy. For comparison, the Dogs are 18th, losing 0.19 points per shot. At the top end is Sydney, gaining 0.38 points per shot.
Our set shots tho are worse, where we lose 0.12 (15th) points per shot. The Dogs are 18th here also, losing 0.24 points per shot, while Adelaide are out in front, gaining 0.45 points per set shot.
In general play we are not so bad, only losing 0.04 points per shot (11th). The two WA teams are last here, losing 0.18 points per shot, while Geelong and Sydney are top, gaining 0.45 points per shot.
So across the course of the season we have been relatively close to average, but of course there have been games where we have absolutely shot the lights out, so the law of averages dictates there have been games, like the last 3, where we have been largely awful.
It's a real 50/50 proposition then as to how our kicking for goal will stand up tomorrow night. Yes, the early shots are important to set the tone, but even that won't be the be all and end all. Against the Giants we were actually 3-2 after 15 minutes, against Collingwood we were 9-6 after 10 minutes of the 3rd quarter, and against Essendon we were 7-7 closing in on half time.
So from those points in those games, we kicked 5-14, 2-6 and 4-14 respectively. Truly awful conversion after not unreasonable starts, and gives good reason for concern with respect to our ability to run out games to the extent we should.
Those with rose-coloured glasses will point to our comeback wins against Melbourne and Sydney. While full of merit, that Melbourne team conceded 5 goals to North in the final quarter the previous week while being held scoreless themselves, while Sydney in that match had barely a fit bench from late in the 2nd quarter. So arguably those two results had more to do with our opposition than our own performance.
The realists among us point to the full season body of work, which paints a pretty clear and alarming picture, particularly when matched up with our opposition:
It is possible that the week off should do us good in this regard. But we can look at Melbourne from 2022, a team which had similar issues closing out games that season, and went out in straight sets. Against Sydney they led by 12 points 10 minutes into the 3rd quarter, before conceding 8 goals to 2 from that point on, and of course they lost to us the following week, having led by 28 points late in the 2nd quarter.
History indicates then that the week off does little to change this quarter-by-quarter profile.
So, it comes down to goal kicking accuracy, and our ability to keep the foot down, and whether that's physical fitness, mental aptitude, or something in between, doesn't really matter.
Ultimately, if can't manage either of these, we can expect a quite maddening game which for the most part we control, but can't capitalise on our opportunities, before likely sh!tt!ing the bed in time on of the last quarter to lose by under a goal, and prompting another celebration of Cardiac Carlton from the VFL meeja. Sound familiar?
If we can nail just one of them, either one, doesn't matter which, we probably win by anything up to 4 goals.
If we're able to nail both, which is actually not an unreasonable expectation for professional footballers, we win comfortably, and a fair few of us will be bullishly doing a roaring trade on the Jetstar and Virgin websites in the late hours of Saturday night.
These are the only "what ifs" that matter. Simples.
End of the day the result will be influenced by two things and two things only:
- ACCURACY, particularly from set shots (this is the main one)
- Ability to run out 4 quarters
On average across the season we lose 0.08 points per shot at goal, compared to expected score. This ranks us 14th in the comp for accuracy. For comparison, the Dogs are 18th, losing 0.19 points per shot. At the top end is Sydney, gaining 0.38 points per shot.
Our set shots tho are worse, where we lose 0.12 (15th) points per shot. The Dogs are 18th here also, losing 0.24 points per shot, while Adelaide are out in front, gaining 0.45 points per set shot.
In general play we are not so bad, only losing 0.04 points per shot (11th). The two WA teams are last here, losing 0.18 points per shot, while Geelong and Sydney are top, gaining 0.45 points per shot.
So across the course of the season we have been relatively close to average, but of course there have been games where we have absolutely shot the lights out, so the law of averages dictates there have been games, like the last 3, where we have been largely awful.
It's a real 50/50 proposition then as to how our kicking for goal will stand up tomorrow night. Yes, the early shots are important to set the tone, but even that won't be the be all and end all. Against the Giants we were actually 3-2 after 15 minutes, against Collingwood we were 9-6 after 10 minutes of the 3rd quarter, and against Essendon we were 7-7 closing in on half time.
So from those points in those games, we kicked 5-14, 2-6 and 4-14 respectively. Truly awful conversion after not unreasonable starts, and gives good reason for concern with respect to our ability to run out games to the extent we should.
Those with rose-coloured glasses will point to our comeback wins against Melbourne and Sydney. While full of merit, that Melbourne team conceded 5 goals to North in the final quarter the previous week while being held scoreless themselves, while Sydney in that match had barely a fit bench from late in the 2nd quarter. So arguably those two results had more to do with our opposition than our own performance.
The realists among us point to the full season body of work, which paints a pretty clear and alarming picture, particularly when matched up with our opposition:
It is possible that the week off should do us good in this regard. But we can look at Melbourne from 2022, a team which had similar issues closing out games that season, and went out in straight sets. Against Sydney they led by 12 points 10 minutes into the 3rd quarter, before conceding 8 goals to 2 from that point on, and of course they lost to us the following week, having led by 28 points late in the 2nd quarter.
History indicates then that the week off does little to change this quarter-by-quarter profile.
So, it comes down to goal kicking accuracy, and our ability to keep the foot down, and whether that's physical fitness, mental aptitude, or something in between, doesn't really matter.
Ultimately, if can't manage either of these, we can expect a quite maddening game which for the most part we control, but can't capitalise on our opportunities, before likely sh!tt!ing the bed in time on of the last quarter to lose by under a goal, and prompting another celebration of Cardiac Carlton from the VFL meeja. Sound familiar?
If we can nail just one of them, either one, doesn't matter which, we probably win by anything up to 4 goals.
If we're able to nail both, which is actually not an unreasonable expectation for professional footballers, we win comfortably, and a fair few of us will be bullishly doing a roaring trade on the Jetstar and Virgin websites in the late hours of Saturday night.
These are the only "what ifs" that matter. Simples.
Section 5
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 26, 2018
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- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
These are the only "what ifs" that matter. Simples.
Toffee Lion
BigFooty Rising Star
Primed isn't he, started a little slow but has built some solid form heading into finals and strikes me as a no fear kinda kid.
Cannot wait for next year to see #8 and #10 running around.
Nunez
Premium Platinum
He is absolutely the kind who stands up during big games.
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