eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Essendon had a tough game against the GWS Giants, getting beaten inside for the second week in a row, albeit without the inside strength of Watson, Hocking and Howlett. Clinical defensively, but need improvement offensively against Hawthorn.
Hawthorn: Defeated Bulldogs in an uninspiring fashion, kicking 2 goals 7 more than the bottom 4 side, although missing some key players in Lance Franklin and Sam Mitchell. Need a better performance against another top 4 side.
Previous encounters: Essendon 2-3 Hawthorn
Past 5 matches
Essendon: 5 W, 0 L
Hawthorn: 4 W, 1 L
sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.95
Hawthorn: $1.36
Line <$1.92>: (will update later)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Hawthorn
B: Fletcher - Carlisle - Baguley
F: Hale - Roughead - Bruest
HB: Hurley - Hooker - Hibberd
HF: Gunston - Franklin - Simpkin
C: Stanton - Hocking - Heppell
C: I Smith - Mitchell - Sewell
HF: Zaharakis - Crameri - Melksham
HB: Burgoyne - Stratton - Duryea
F: Bellchambers - Gumbleton - Winderlich
B: Lake - Gibson - Guerra
R: Ryder - Myers - Goddard
R: Bailey - Hodge - Shiels
I: Dell'Olio - Dempsey - Colyer
I: Whitecross - Puopolo - Rioli
S: Kommer
S: Hill
Hawthorn forward line vs Essendon defence
Wow, this is a big match-up. Hawthorn have the best forward line in the AFL, with 4 genuine targets in Hale, Gunston, Roughead and Franklin, but it's not immobile either with all of them bar Hale good on the ground. Luke Bruest is also a good target, and is the best crumber at Hawthorn. Then Simpkin, Whitecross, Rioli and Puopolo also rotate through there. Scary forward line. On the other hand Essendon have a strong defence with Fletcher, Carlisle and Hooker playing well back there consistently, and Hurley the same when he plays there. This is the battle that could decide the game
midfield battle (rucks included)
Another exciting battle, each midfield has got the inside power in Sewell, Shiels, Hodge, Whitecross, Mitchell and Roughead against Hocking, Stanton, Heppell, Myers, Goddard, Melksham and Zaharakis. The outside pace is pretty even with Hill and Rioli against Colyer, Dempsey and Zaharakis, and the gut running of Stanton and Isaac Smith balance out. The difference in the ruck is really the only seperating power, with Ryder and Bellchambers having a disappointing week against Giles and Brogan and will want to hit back well against one of the weaker ruck divisions in the AFL
Essendon forward line vs Hawthorn defence
Interesting duel. Essendon's biggest weakness is their forward functionality, but Hawthorn can be wek defensively when isolated, so Essendon will want to isolate Stratton with his match-up, getting Lake and Gibson around the 50 metre mark. Winderlich against Duryea will also be crucial, Winderlich will be able to isolate him as well. Dell'Olio will want to back up his good game against a better opposition
X-Factor player
Jake Melksham has gone from strength to strength this season, repaying the faith in him. He's been shutting down players, and making them work the other way, kicking goals for the bombers consistently. It will be interesting to see if he gets another run-with role against a Mitchell or Hodge or if he's used more offensively again.
Key stats for each side
Essendon:
Two gun sides. Two massive rivals. 1st vs 2nd. Watson not playing may be too hard for the dons, Hawthorn by 3 points
Essendon: Essendon had a tough game against the GWS Giants, getting beaten inside for the second week in a row, albeit without the inside strength of Watson, Hocking and Howlett. Clinical defensively, but need improvement offensively against Hawthorn.
Hawthorn: Defeated Bulldogs in an uninspiring fashion, kicking 2 goals 7 more than the bottom 4 side, although missing some key players in Lance Franklin and Sam Mitchell. Need a better performance against another top 4 side.
Previous encounters: Essendon 2-3 Hawthorn
Past 5 matches
Essendon: 5 W, 0 L
Hawthorn: 4 W, 1 L
sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.95
Hawthorn: $1.36
Line <$1.92>: (will update later)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Hawthorn
B: Fletcher - Carlisle - Baguley
F: Hale - Roughead - Bruest
HB: Hurley - Hooker - Hibberd
HF: Gunston - Franklin - Simpkin
C: Stanton - Hocking - Heppell
C: I Smith - Mitchell - Sewell
HF: Zaharakis - Crameri - Melksham
HB: Burgoyne - Stratton - Duryea
F: Bellchambers - Gumbleton - Winderlich
B: Lake - Gibson - Guerra
R: Ryder - Myers - Goddard
R: Bailey - Hodge - Shiels
I: Dell'Olio - Dempsey - Colyer
I: Whitecross - Puopolo - Rioli
S: Kommer
S: Hill
Hawthorn forward line vs Essendon defence
Wow, this is a big match-up. Hawthorn have the best forward line in the AFL, with 4 genuine targets in Hale, Gunston, Roughead and Franklin, but it's not immobile either with all of them bar Hale good on the ground. Luke Bruest is also a good target, and is the best crumber at Hawthorn. Then Simpkin, Whitecross, Rioli and Puopolo also rotate through there. Scary forward line. On the other hand Essendon have a strong defence with Fletcher, Carlisle and Hooker playing well back there consistently, and Hurley the same when he plays there. This is the battle that could decide the game
midfield battle (rucks included)
Another exciting battle, each midfield has got the inside power in Sewell, Shiels, Hodge, Whitecross, Mitchell and Roughead against Hocking, Stanton, Heppell, Myers, Goddard, Melksham and Zaharakis. The outside pace is pretty even with Hill and Rioli against Colyer, Dempsey and Zaharakis, and the gut running of Stanton and Isaac Smith balance out. The difference in the ruck is really the only seperating power, with Ryder and Bellchambers having a disappointing week against Giles and Brogan and will want to hit back well against one of the weaker ruck divisions in the AFL
Essendon forward line vs Hawthorn defence
Interesting duel. Essendon's biggest weakness is their forward functionality, but Hawthorn can be wek defensively when isolated, so Essendon will want to isolate Stratton with his match-up, getting Lake and Gibson around the 50 metre mark. Winderlich against Duryea will also be crucial, Winderlich will be able to isolate him as well. Dell'Olio will want to back up his good game against a better opposition
X-Factor player
Jake Melksham has gone from strength to strength this season, repaying the faith in him. He's been shutting down players, and making them work the other way, kicking goals for the bombers consistently. It will be interesting to see if he gets another run-with role against a Mitchell or Hodge or if he's used more offensively again.
Key stats for each side
Essendon:
- Marks I50. Essendon need to fix this area, for the amount of inside 50's they have they don't get enough marks
- Midfield pressure. Hawthorn have fantastic skills and have a fantastic forward line so they need to make sure there's no cheap football for the Hawks
- Disposal Efficiency. Can't turn it over, because Essendon are one of the best sides when scoring from turnovers.
- Clearances. Can't let Essendon's outside class of Zaharakis and Goddard dominate you, and the only way to do that is win the pill
Two gun sides. Two massive rivals. 1st vs 2nd. Watson not playing may be too hard for the dons, Hawthorn by 3 points
Possible match ups:
Players In BOLD are possible inclusions for both sides.
B: Michael Hibberd, Jake Carlisle, Dustin Fletcher
F: Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead, David Hale
HB: Courtney Dempsey Cale Hooker, Mark Baguley
HF: Jack Gunston, Lance Franklin, Cyril Rioli
C: Jake Melksham, Brent Stanton, Dyson Heppell
C: Shane Savage, Sam Mitchell, Isaac Smith
HF: David Myers, Michael Hurley, Jason Winderlich
HB: Luke Hodge, Josh Gibson, Brendan Whitecross
F: Stewart Crameri, Tom Bellchambers, Cory Dell'Olio
B: Ben Stratton, Brian Lake, Taylor Duryea
R: Patrick Ryder, Brendan Goddard, David Zahrakis
R: Max Bailey, Jordan Lewis, Brad Sewell
INT: Travis Colyer, Leroy Jetta, Nick O'Brien, Heath Hocking
INT: Bradley Hill, Jonathan Simpkin, Paul Puopolo, Will Langford
Match Preview:
This weeks match between Essendon and Hawthorn will see the two best performing sides of 2013 battle it out under the roof at Etihad on a Friday Night. Top spot on the ladder is on the line for both sides who are looking to consolidate their spots in the top four as we edge closer to this years finals series.
This year the Bombers have been outstanding winning 13 games and displaying some quality football that's been great to watch. The Essendon defense has been rock solid this year conceding only 81 points per game which is ranked #4 in the league that's largely due to the improvement of Hooker, Carlisle and Hibberd. The Essendon ruck division led by Ryder and Bellchambers is now the second best ruck combo in the league behind Cox and Natanui. The ability of Ryder and Bellchambers to win the ruck battle as well as become another target up forward for Essendon makes them an incredibly difficult match-up for the opposition to contain. The emergence of Bellchambers this year has been significant for Essendon as they now have a ruckman who can dominate at the center bounces and up forward with his big strong marking presence. The ruck dual will be crucial on Friday Night and no doubt this is one key area that Essendon have a significant advantage in and they will try and exploit the Hawks rucks going the other way.
The Hawks forward line has functioned very well without Lance Franklin. Big man Jarryd Roughead is having his best year at the Club kicking 50 goals for the season so far, which he now has achieved for the fourth time in his career. The match up of Hooker versus Franklin could be a decisive factor in the outcome of the game. He will need some support from Fletcher and Carlisle. If there's one area the Hawks have an advantage it's the front half of the ground. Expect mature aged player Mark Baguley to get first crack at Hawk small forward Cyril Rioli.
The midfield battle will be very interesting indeed. No Jobe Watson will hurt Essendon as he is clearly their best clearance player and he is one player who has been dominant during the past encounters between the two Clubs. On paper the midfield of both teams are fairly evenly matched. But as we know games are not won on paper. The return of Winderlich, Zaharakis and Hocking strengthens the Essendon line-up as well as it gives them more goal kicking options. We might see Hocking on Sam Mitchell at some stage with the Hawk in pretty good form averaging close to 29 disposals per game this season. One of the key players for the Hawks is Sam Mitchell and stopping his influence will be crucial to Essendon chances on Friday Night. For Essendon Brendan Goddard looms large and could be a nightmare match-up for the Hawks given his size and strength as a midfielder which makes it hard for the opposition to find the right match up for him given his versatility as well. Tough Hawk on baller Jordan Lewis could be the man given the job of trying to curb the influence of Goddard.
It's shaping as a ripping contest in front of a sellout Crowd at Docklands. Good luck here's to a great game looking forward to Friday Night.
Tip: Hawthorn by 10 points.
