Expectations and predictions for 2018
- Thread starter MrDanggazz
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Imo reverting back to our old high pressure game plan is pretty important too....
- May 7, 2015
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I'm back after a footy talk hiatus over the christmas/new year period mainly due to moving house but I'm pumped for the new season. My main expectation is that people will continually rag on Matera, however my prediction is for him to play a vital role in bringing back our pressure footy, and also him kicking 35 goals for the year. Happy to be wrong on his contribution, but I'm very excited to see him play in purple.
Also predicting a break out year for AP now he's back and fit. The vics will recognise his talent and start talking him up IMO.
Fyfe for chaz #2 and to take back his crown now he's back at full strength.
Fully expect us(fans) to make Optus stadium a fortress and for the boys to adapt quicker than people think to the new dimensions. Expecting 10-12 wins. CARN FREOOOOOO!
Also predicting a break out year for AP now he's back and fit. The vics will recognise his talent and start talking him up IMO.
Fyfe for chaz #2 and to take back his crown now he's back at full strength.
Fully expect us(fans) to make Optus stadium a fortress and for the boys to adapt quicker than people think to the new dimensions. Expecting 10-12 wins. CARN FREOOOOOO!
- Apr 16, 2014
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My thoughts on the 13 games we have at Optus Stadium.
Have us with 6 likely wins, if I split the 50/50 games that puts us to 9 wins. To make finals we need to win another 3-4 away games (Collingwood, Carlton...??) Feel like Rnd 1 would be a good chance to jump an under done Port.
- Wins
Dogs
Gold Coast
Eagles
North
Lions
Carlton
- 50/50's (can make an argument for a win or loss).
Essendon
Saints
Port
Eagles (A)
Collingwood
Hawks
- Losses
Crows
I think we'll end on 10 wins and sit around 10th -12th spot on the ladder. We'll be in the hunt for the top 8 at some point but won't quite make it. We'll lose a game we shouldn't and win a game we shouldn't.
Have us with 6 likely wins, if I split the 50/50 games that puts us to 9 wins. To make finals we need to win another 3-4 away games (Collingwood, Carlton...??) Feel like Rnd 1 would be a good chance to jump an under done Port.
- Wins
Dogs
Gold Coast
Eagles
North
Lions
Carlton
- 50/50's (can make an argument for a win or loss).
Essendon
Saints
Port
Eagles (A)
Collingwood
Hawks
- Losses
Crows
I think we'll end on 10 wins and sit around 10th -12th spot on the ladder. We'll be in the hunt for the top 8 at some point but won't quite make it. We'll lose a game we shouldn't and win a game we shouldn't.
You've pretty much nailed it.
We're vying to be the trickiest team to predict in 2018.
So in home games you are predicting 9 wins (6 wins +3 of the 50-50), and only one away win?
I can't accept quite a few of your 50-50's. Do you rate Hawthorn, Collingwood, Saints and Essendon? I wouldn't chalk them up as likely wins, but hope we are a bit better than 50-50 at this stage, but yeah from that group of games 3 wins would be acceptable. It would just be disappointing to lose to any of those teams at the moment.
- Apr 16, 2014
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The 50-50 catergory I could come up with reasons why we could and should win everyone of them... but we also lost to each of those sides last year.
While I think we should win around 9 home games I also think we'll probably lose a game or two we shouldn't.
Hopefully we have a few unexpected wins to balance it out.
Monument Hills
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- Dec 12, 2017
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We aren't going to suck as much as the past two years.
I'm going with the 8, 10, 12 formula.
8 wins is the minimum standard.
10 wins is a reasonable goal.
12 wins would be a very good achievement.
I'll be happy to watch the young whippersnappers come in and progress game by game, Tabs really clunking marks and shooting straight ( is 35 to 40 goals a good goal ? ), our backline gelling and then producing consistent rebound, the forward line keeping their feet !!! and getting more through the big sticks, plus Fyfe, Sandi, Neale & Mundy doing what they do best.
Neale >>>>>> Tom Mitchell.
8 wins is the minimum standard.
10 wins is a reasonable goal.
12 wins would be a very good achievement.
I'll be happy to watch the young whippersnappers come in and progress game by game, Tabs really clunking marks and shooting straight ( is 35 to 40 goals a good goal ? ), our backline gelling and then producing consistent rebound, the forward line keeping their feet !!! and getting more through the big sticks, plus Fyfe, Sandi, Neale & Mundy doing what they do best.
Neale >>>>>> Tom Mitchell.
- May 3, 2007
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I could see Freo average 70 points a game or 10.10.70 and concede 96 points a game or 14.12.96. That means an even spread of goals again. That's exactly 220 goals for 22 games. If Freo manage to average 10 goals a game for 3rd season in a row, this is how I see the goals broken down....
6.5 goals a game that equals 143 goals over 22 games. Heres how I think it would end up...
Walters: 34 goals
McCarthy: 30 goals
Matera: 30 goals
Tabs: 26 goals
Kersten: 23 goals
3.5 goals a game equals 77 goals over 22 games.
Fyfe: 15 goals
Neale: 15 goals
Langdon: 14 goals.
So 44 from those 3. Might get an even spread and have 4 blokes kick 44 between them and kick 10 each.
As for the last 33
Brad Hill: 8 goals
Stephen Hill: 8 goals
Mundy: 6 goals
Blakely: 5 goals
Cox: 3 goals
Logue: 3 goals
Its an interesting spread, Its not exactly the best forward line set up. Then again, we aint relying on one bloke to kick 50 plus goals. The only current bloke I can see kick 40 or more is Walters. Possibly Cam McCarthy too. some rookie mids could kick goals as well. As I said, I am Hoping we have a potential 30 goal a season ruck forward in Luke Strnadica, Michael Apeness or Scott Jones stepping up.
Saying that... If we are averaging 70 points a game, I don't mind seeing a big gap of seeing our best and worst. Expect to have crap games where freo kick 5-8 goals and lose. I also expect freo to grind out some wins kicking 12-15 goals in a game too. I can see Freo have a crap away game and kick 6.10.46 one week then 14.10.94 the next week in a home game.
We are going to get 6-10 wins. More likely 7-8 wins.
Wally Walpamur
Norm Smith Medallist
- Sep 23, 2016
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After some thinking, I think we'll struggle for the first half of the season. I've just realised, even just looking at our round 1 side, we will probably have Brayshaw, Banfield, A Pearce, Matera and Wilson pretty much playing their first game. That's ~25% of the team. Throw in the likes of Cerra, Logue and Darcy to make their way into the side at some point this season, who are first and second year players, it's going to take a while for these guys to build their on field chemistry and get used to the game plan.
I won't be surprised if we're another 8 win side again this season.
I won't be surprised if we're another 8 win side again this season.
Round 7 v Richmond at the MCG. I predict a tough game where we take a convincing lead early and are in control, only for Richmond to claw their way back and take the lead with only a couple of minutes left.
Centre clearance, a set play and the ball is booted into the forward line and marked about 45m out by none other than David Mundy. He lines up, the siren goes and he kicks the sealer after the season.
This might seem like an outrageous prediction, but I swear this is exactly how it happened on the last two occasions I saw us play Richmond at the MCG. Definately a pattern forming
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Centre clearance, a set play and the ball is booted into the forward line and marked about 45m out by none other than David Mundy. He lines up, the siren goes and he kicks the sealer after the season.
This might seem like an outrageous prediction, but I swear this is exactly how it happened on the last two occasions I saw us play Richmond at the MCG. Definately a pattern forming
On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
These are the 15 players I expect to play most weeks baring any injuries Fyfe,Neale Sanderlands,Hill brothers,Walters,Bennell,Wilson,Mundy,Hamling,A Pearce,Ryan,Blakely,Brayshaw,Cerra.These others are the ones I would be looking at selection ahead of other experienced players Darcy,Logue Banfield,Tucker,Crowden,Hughes,Dixon,Tabs,Cox,North,Langdon,Grey,McCarthyNyhuis,Matera,Meeks,Apeness,Switkowski,Jones My thoughts are get as many games into the new comers as possible.I believe we will finish in the top 8
Tom_Thumb
Club Legend
- Feb 1, 2016
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Don't count your chickens before they hatch boys, you have some very good youth coming through and probably second only to Melbourne but kids always bring inconsistency and turn overs. If you can keep this bunch together big things to come but there will be some rough times, my mob will kill it one week and get killed the next...not expecting much.
There, that's better.
Tom_Thumb
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- Feb 1, 2016
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People thinking we are going to get smashed into wooden spoon are just wishing it. The reality is we have a couple of down years before coming back up and challenging...you can take that to the bank.
- Jul 2, 2013
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I'm quite amazed that betting sites are offering $1.95 for 9 wins or more for Freo in 2018 (you know the disclaimer ... bet responsibly).
As I have posted elsewhere, when Sandilands has played (full games >70% TOG) in Freo's last two very poor seasons (2016 & 2017), we have won 7 of those 12 games.
That is, injuries have played a major factor in Freo's previous two poor seasons.
If (touch wood) Freo can get through 2018 with very few injuries to our most important players, then I believe Freo will out perform most peoples predictions. It is the modern way to not allow injuries to be used as an excuse for a team's performance, but in reality, it has a major impact (eg. Sydney early in 2017).
It was only two seasons ago in 2015 Freo won 17 of their 22 home and away games.
So what has changed so dramatically since then?
I believe Freo tried a change of Game plan to be more attacking, with the hope that it may improve Freo that extra 1 or 2% to win them a premiership.
The problem was, it didn't work and Freo got some major injuries to major players. All of a sudden Freo were a good 5% off what they were in 2015 and the losses came. Then came the realisation that finals were unlikely and it was an appropriate time to rebuild and blood youth. That makes a team even less likely to win in the short term.
People don't seem to respect the difference that a few percent from your best can make. I often remind myself of how well Freo have gone in successful seasons when they chose to rest the better players before finals ... they got spanked (ie. R23 in '13 & '15).
Below is a list of Freo's major contributors from 2015 (out of the top 23 players who played 14 or more games) that are no longer with us;
Barlow, Ibbo, Suban, Pavlich, Mayne, de Boer, McPharlin, Duffield, Clarke
In 2018, they may be (depending on fitness and form) replaced by;
Ryan, A.Pearce, Blakely, B.Hill, McCarthy, Wilson, Hamling, Kersten, Brayshaw ... that's pretty darn good.
Also in 2015, there were the following fringe players who played 5 or more games;
Mzungu, Crozier, Griffin, Dawson
In 2018 we have the likes of;
Matera, Langdon, Darcy, Hughes, Logue, Cox, Banfield, H.Bennell, Cerra, Grey (my apologies to those I have missed ... like Crowden ... one of my personal favourite prospects).
Now, I accept other teams have also improved since 2015, but I really like the looks of our list for 2018. I personally think it has better depth and quality than it did in 2015. So in summary (for me), just like most seasons, injuries* are going to be a major determining factor on whether Freo make the finals or not.
(*and I've got to say it, umpiring ... if Freo start performing well in 2018, you just watch the umpiring suddenly go South on us ... if history is anything to go by).
As I have posted elsewhere, when Sandilands has played (full games >70% TOG) in Freo's last two very poor seasons (2016 & 2017), we have won 7 of those 12 games.
That is, injuries have played a major factor in Freo's previous two poor seasons.
If (touch wood) Freo can get through 2018 with very few injuries to our most important players, then I believe Freo will out perform most peoples predictions. It is the modern way to not allow injuries to be used as an excuse for a team's performance, but in reality, it has a major impact (eg. Sydney early in 2017).
It was only two seasons ago in 2015 Freo won 17 of their 22 home and away games.
So what has changed so dramatically since then?
I believe Freo tried a change of Game plan to be more attacking, with the hope that it may improve Freo that extra 1 or 2% to win them a premiership.
The problem was, it didn't work and Freo got some major injuries to major players. All of a sudden Freo were a good 5% off what they were in 2015 and the losses came. Then came the realisation that finals were unlikely and it was an appropriate time to rebuild and blood youth. That makes a team even less likely to win in the short term.
People don't seem to respect the difference that a few percent from your best can make. I often remind myself of how well Freo have gone in successful seasons when they chose to rest the better players before finals ... they got spanked (ie. R23 in '13 & '15).
Below is a list of Freo's major contributors from 2015 (out of the top 23 players who played 14 or more games) that are no longer with us;
Barlow, Ibbo, Suban, Pavlich, Mayne, de Boer, McPharlin, Duffield, Clarke
In 2018, they may be (depending on fitness and form) replaced by;
Ryan, A.Pearce, Blakely, B.Hill, McCarthy, Wilson, Hamling, Kersten, Brayshaw ... that's pretty darn good.
Also in 2015, there were the following fringe players who played 5 or more games;
Mzungu, Crozier, Griffin, Dawson
In 2018 we have the likes of;
Matera, Langdon, Darcy, Hughes, Logue, Cox, Banfield, H.Bennell, Cerra, Grey (my apologies to those I have missed ... like Crowden ... one of my personal favourite prospects).
Now, I accept other teams have also improved since 2015, but I really like the looks of our list for 2018. I personally think it has better depth and quality than it did in 2015. So in summary (for me), just like most seasons, injuries* are going to be a major determining factor on whether Freo make the finals or not.
(*and I've got to say it, umpiring ... if Freo start performing well in 2018, you just watch the umpiring suddenly go South on us ... if history is anything to go by).
- Jun 11, 2016
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- Thread starter
- #272
Hey ladies and gentlemen !
Recently read the article done by the journalists at Afl.com which had a lay out like the one below with all their predictions for the season, so I figured let’s get a crystal ball going on here.
Premier:
Runner-up:
Wooden spoon:
Moving up:
Set to fall:
Brownlow Medal:
Coleman Medal:
NAB AFL Rising Star:
Recruit of the year:
Surprise All Australian:
Pass the tissues:
Ps: I accidentally posted this here, I have one on the main board too.
Recently read the article done by the journalists at Afl.com which had a lay out like the one below with all their predictions for the season, so I figured let’s get a crystal ball going on here.
Premier:
Runner-up:
Wooden spoon:
Moving up:
Set to fall:
Brownlow Medal:
Coleman Medal:
NAB AFL Rising Star:
Recruit of the year:
Surprise All Australian:
Pass the tissues:
Ps: I accidentally posted this here, I have one on the main board too.
Last edited:
Premier:Geelong
Runner-up:Richmond
Wooden spoon: Collingwood
Moving up: Hawthorn (12th to 5/6th)
Set to fall: WCE (8th to 13/14th)
Brownlow Medal:Fyfe
Coleman Medal:Franklin
NAB AFL Rising Star:Brayshaw
Recruit of the year:Watts
Surprise All Australian:Adam Kennedy
Don't really care about the other media-related fields.
Runner-up:Richmond
Wooden spoon: Collingwood
Moving up: Hawthorn (12th to 5/6th)
Set to fall: WCE (8th to 13/14th)
Brownlow Medal:Fyfe
Coleman Medal:Franklin
NAB AFL Rising Star:Brayshaw
Recruit of the year:Watts
Surprise All Australian:Adam Kennedy
Don't really care about the other media-related fields.
Pretty sure there’s an entire thread on something similar.
Have to answer one of these though!
Pass the tissues:
#ourdarlingballantyne
So you have a bye every second week? Because the only time you will “kill it” is in an intra-club.
