Games Won Beaten Ladder 2024

[SpiritOfCarlton]

Now that all team are back on parity in terms of games played, good time to look at the Games Won Beaten Ladder.

Pretty simple concept. If you win a game each week you get the traditional ladder points of the team you beat added to your score.

What this shows basically is which teams have beaten other teams who have previously won plenty of games. In other words beating the toughest on a regular basis.

and here it is (Sydney and Carlton clear one and two, Brisbane doing very well, Geelong doing poorly):

SY	190​
CA	178​
BL	119​
CW	112​
WB	102​
FR	98​
HW	96​
GW	84​
ES	71​
GC	70​
PA	68​
ME	56​
AD	55​
SK	44​
GE	40​
WC	40​
RI	30​
NM	12​

 

[MC Bad Genius]

Now that all team are back on parity in terms of games played, good time to look at the Games Won Beaten Ladder.

Pretty simple concept. If you win a game each week you get the traditional ladder points of the team you beat added to your score.

What this shows basically is which teams have beaten other teams who have previously won plenty of games. In other words beating the toughest on a regular basis.

and here it is (Sydney and Carlton clear one and two, Brisbane doing very well, Geelong doing poorly):

SY	190​
CA	178​
BL	119​
CW	112​
WB	102​
FR	98​
HW	96​
GW	84​
ES	71​
GC	70​
PA	68​
ME	56​
AD	55​
SK	44​
GE	40​
WC	40​
RI	30​
NM	12​

I like it. How does this track for past years and premierships?

 

[kaiserchief13]

Yeah that ladder looks about right to rank the teams right now. Geelong and Essendon been given gifted draws so far

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

I like it. How does this track for past years and premierships?

Wish I could tell you, I'd like to see it as well.

If anyone out there has done this? Would love to see it.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Now that all team are back on parity in terms of games played, good time to look at the Games Won Beaten Ladder.

Pretty simple concept. If you win a game each week you get the traditional ladder points of the team you beat added to your score.

What this shows basically is which teams have beaten other teams who have previously won plenty of games. In other words beating the toughest on a regular basis.

and here it is (Sydney and Carlton clear one and two, Brisbane doing very well, Geelong doing poorly):

SY	190​
CA	178​
BL	119​
CW	112​
WB	102​
FR	98​
HW	96​
GW	84​
ES	71​
GC	70​
PA	68​
ME	56​
AD	55​
SK	44​
GE	40​
WC	40​
RI	30​
NM	12​

I feel like this is a "lol Essendon" post and... i'm here for it.

 

[Stumpy Pete]

Now that all team are back on parity in terms of games played, good time to look at the Games Won Beaten Ladder.

Pretty simple concept. If you win a game each week you get the traditional ladder points of the team you beat added to your score.

What this shows basically is which teams have beaten other teams who have previously won plenty of games. In other words beating the toughest on a regular basis.

and here it is (Sydney and Carlton clear one and two, Brisbane doing very well, Geelong doing poorly):

SY	190​
CA	178​
BL	119​
CW	112​
WB	102​
FR	98​
HW	96​
GW	84​
ES	71​
GC	70​
PA	68​
ME	56​
AD	55​
SK	44​
GE	40​
WC	40​
RI	30​
NM	12​

Given the vagaries of the AFL fixture this is a great approach to gauging where teams are at. My one suggestion is that you do the analysis a second time with ladder you have just created being the one that is used to determine the points you get for defeating a team.

Regards

S. Pete

 

[Stumpy Pete]

Now that all team are back on parity in terms of games played, good time to look at the Games Won Beaten Ladder.

Pretty simple concept. If you win a game each week you get the traditional ladder points of the team you beat added to your score.

What this shows basically is which teams have beaten other teams who have previously won plenty of games. In other words beating the toughest on a regular basis.

and here it is (Sydney and Carlton clear one and two, Brisbane doing very well, Geelong doing poorly):

SY	190​
CA	178​
BL	119​
CW	112​
WB	102​
FR	98​
HW	96​
GW	84​
ES	71​
GC	70​
PA	68​
ME	56​
AD	55​
SK	44​
GE	40​
WC	40​
RI	30​
NM	12​

One methodological question.

How have you handled draws?

Regards

S. Pete

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

One methodological question.

How have you handled draws?

Regards

S. Pete

I gave each team half of the other teams traditional ladder points.

 

[SC_Power]

From 2009

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/alternative-afl-ladder-evening-out-the-draw.602893/

 

[H00t]

This favours teams who have had a good run of form recently and disadvantages teams that started well but have dropped off.

Would be interesting to compare it to a ladder of all teams beaten but with their wins as of now instead of at the time of playing.

I do wonder if only using the preceding 3-4 games would give a better idea of form.

For instance beating Melbourne at the start of the year is much more impressive than beating the current Melbourne team.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

This favours teams who have had a good run of form recently and disadvantages teams that started well but have dropped off.

Would be interesting to compare it to a ladder of all teams beaten but with their wins as of now instead of at the time of playing.

I do wonder if only using the preceding 3-4 games would give a better idea of form.

For instance beating Melbourne at the start of the year is much more impressive than beating the current Melbourne team.

I'd argue that may help it give an accurate read on things. Geelong and Melbourne started the season fairly well but imo in unconvincing fashion due to soft draws and a few lucky results. They've since been found out despite their ladder position not being a great reflection on their prospects. WBD, Brisbane and Hawks look far better off going into the back half of the season.

Overall, I quite like it. Good stuff OP.

 

[Thrawn]

Now that all team are back on parity in terms of games played, good time to look at the Games Won Beaten Ladder.

Pretty simple concept. If you win a game each week you get the traditional ladder points of the team you beat added to your score.

What this shows basically is which teams have beaten other teams who have previously won plenty of games. In other words beating the toughest on a regular basis.

and here it is (Sydney and Carlton clear one and two, Brisbane doing very well, Geelong doing poorly):

SY	190​
CA	178​
BL	119​
CW	112​
WB	102​
FR	98​
HW	96​
GW	84​
ES	71​
GC	70​
PA	68​
ME	56​
AD	55​
SK	44​
GE	40​
WC	40​
RI	30​
NM	12​

Probably the most accurate form ladder right now.

 

[PizzaPie]

I gave each team half of the other teams traditional ladder points.

Looks like you gave them half of the other team's ladder points including the 2 points for the draw (I only checked for the pies, where that is the case, and assumed the same logic applied for the others).

Basically you've split 6 points total for the draw between the two teams. Meaning a draw is worth 50% of a win + 1 point:
Win: [100% * opposition points start of round] + [4 points for win]
Draw: [50% * opposition points start of round] + [2 points for draw] + [50% * oppositions 2 points for draw]

Taking the COLL vs. FRE draw in RD10 for example, if Collingwood won they'd have gotten Freo's start of round 24 points + 4 points for the win = 28. If Freo won, they'd get Coll's start of round 26 points + 4 points = 30 points.

If a draw is worth half a win, that would be 12+2 for Coll, 13+2 for Freo, 29 total points awarded for the round. The total points distributed for a draw = mid point of the min/max points if either team had won, and it works out the same applying the same to any start of round points.
However, with the extra point each the total awarded points for the round = 31 points total, which +3/+1 of the min/max range of total points awarded if pies or freo had won.

As your ladder stands currently, if you take away those extra 'draw' points, only one position changes (ESS 9th <-> GC 10th flips, with GC moving to 9th ahead of ESS by %).

 

[PizzaPie]

Besides the 1 point premium for draws vs. traditional draws being worth 50% of a win, there are some significant flaws related to the pool of points being awarded increasing each round, and the impact of split bye rounds.

Theoretically and plausibly enough as an illustrative example of how flawed the back ended win rewards are, a team that won its first game and consistently won every 2nd game thereafter against opponents with a league average W/L ratio (50%) could finish with less points than a team that goes 0-17 then wins its last 6 games against 2x average (50% W/L) teams and 4x top 4 teams that were either out of form at the wrong end of the year or resting players in dead rubber games in prep for finals (6 wins total).

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

Would love to see improved versions of this ladder. It is very much a work in progress, and no claims are made that it is anything other than an experiment.

Interesting discussion regarding weightings through the season.

Carlton was actually disadvantaged by playing and beating Brisbane in opening round (0 points) with this type of ladder.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Another metric to show Geelong are done.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I feel like this is a "lol Essendon" post and... i'm here for it.

It’s a pretty shit one if so. It shows Essendon as 9th of 18. Not good, not shit. Precisely average. Who would argue they are anything but?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

It’s a pretty shit one if so. It shows Essendon as 9th of 18. Not good, not shit. Precisely average. Who would argue they are anything but?

There's still half a season to go where you'll continue to fall down this ladder by not beating any top 10 sides.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Would like to see points lost as well in order to adjust for biases around the fixture.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

There's still half a season to go where you'll continue to fall down this ladder by not beating any top 10 sides.

“If your team loses they’ll be shit”

Epic burn

 

[FlowersByIrene]

“If your team loses they’ll be shit”

Epic burn

"Your team will lose because they are shit"

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

It’s a pretty shit one if so. It shows Essendon as 9th of 18. Not good, not shit. Precisely average. Who would argue they are anything but?

That's just perfect. Feels 100% the Brad Scott comfort zone.

 

[Zephyr Effekt]

So in this alternate universe Essendon have;

Wins against 5th 7th & 8th
Losses against 1st & 2nd
Draw against 4th
Haven’t played 3rd & 6th

Sweet.

 

[Billy ray]

Yeh thats good all
How about one just showing the ladder for home games