Analysis Geelong Cats are preliminary finals chokers: Some hard truthes.

[Vdubs]

Maybe. Or maybe they simply are best fit for that position at that given time? I never agreed with Murda in defence, Blitz on a wing Kolo on a wing although he's shown a little bit there. Harry has also shown plenty up forward. With Mack and Domsy gone Harry goes back and hopefully Buzza gets some continuity up forward.

If we can get our 2 smalls in Mcarthy and Gregson cranking and the **** can keep his hammies from twanging we might be able to build a formidable pressure forward line. If we get stringer and Ablett it will be very dynamic and dangerous.

I do worry about the backline though. Kolo should go back and we play **** ona wing/fwd flank for his run and pressure acts pushing into the forward line. Hopefully Gardner is ready to take the big step into Domsys shoes, he's got big boots to fill so hopefully the kid is ready to step up.

Surely Gardner would have been tried at least once this year if he is the Domsy replacement?
I think with our limited window of 2 years max (predicting Joel, Harry, Hawkins will have been cooked by then), we will need to recruit a short term ready made KB, OR, play Blicavs there indefinitely.
Rory Thompson, Lachie Hansen are examples.
The Mackie role will be harder to cover- a unique blend of some height, great use of the ball, and attack from defence with a penchant for goals. Also a very smart player who organised a lot of our defence.
I hope Thurlow is on our radar as a player to develop, but if not, nobody stands out as a viable cover.
Kolo will be good in defence, but a bit limited. Perhaps his brother...?
Watching both teams dismantle us these finals, it was pressure that beat us, that old issue that has beaten us over the past 2 seasons, eg Pies, Swans in 16. Pies 17.
CS et al will have their plans. Now a long interesting off-season.

 

[Vdubs]

Feel free to watch Thompsons one game this year, he was a dumpster fire. Definitely one year too long.

As for the Crows midfield in general I don't think it's any deeper than ours

Danger v Sloane
Selwoods v Crouches
Menegola v Greenwood (who was one of Adelaides only poor performers in the prelim, but I digress)

They may have us on the outside but there's no gulf in depth. Honestly the idea of disparity is vastly overstated - its extremely rare to have a difference of more than one player in any position across two teams. Just a question of getting enough good high quality so nobody has to play at a level above their capabilities and getting the guys below to successfully execute. We were like the Giants, getting the first right but not the second.

Their other Rory's?
They lost their exciting AA attacking HBF in Smith, but didn't miss a beat.
They lost their high flying and dangerous marking McGovern, but again, others stepped up.
I think the disparity is that under extreme pressure, teams KNOW we will wilt, our possessions drop off in quality, we look hesitant and slow, and it is a familiar pattern. I think that comes down to ability and quality. We are lacking. Looking only at our team week in week out, we appear to be ok, but these past 2 years, minus Danger and we would have hardly made the 8. Perhaps say the same about Tigers/Martin.
How many games was Danger directly responsible for us getting a narrow victory? Similarly, to a lesser extent, Joel. I don't think that is said about Crows.
As soon as extreme pressure is applied, Menegola, even Duncan, and even Dangerwood are seen to cough up the ball. How do we train for that to be remedied?

 

[Landgraft]

Their other Rory's?
They lost their exciting AA attacking HBF in Smith, but didn't miss a beat.
They lost their high flying and dangerous marking McGovern, but again, others stepped up.
I think the disparity is that under extreme pressure, teams KNOW we will wilt, our possessions drop off in quality, we look hesitant and slow, and it is a familiar pattern. I think that comes down to ability and quality. We are lacking. Looking only at our team week in week out, we appear to be ok, but these past 2 years, minus Danger and we would have hardly made the 8. Perhaps say the same about Tigers/Martin.
How many games was Danger directly responsible for us getting a narrow victory? Similarly, to a lesser extent, Joel. I don't think that is said about Crows.
As soon as extreme pressure is applied, Menegola, even Duncan, and even Dangerwood are seen to cough up the ball. How do we train for that to be remedied?

Atkins and his 1 contested possession isn't really relevant to discussing midfielders, he's purely an outside player. Brodie Smith is a good-average player but not much more and McGovern while a loss wouldn't have changed much against us either way, may be more significant against Richmond who use a very different structure. You remove the top mid and everyone else has to play up a peg - credit to Adelaide as they have managed to cover that happening to them. Not many teams would - and it will transform any team that gets to release all mids down a peg as well. Dusty to Norf would have surprised many doubters, but we'll never get to see.

And tbh I think the pressure element is overstated. When you make unforced errors, as I saw many of our turnovers to be, it comes from somewhere other than the oppositions defensive effort. We aren't a cohesive unit, which stems from many sources. But our coaching staff aren't willing to settle on a plan and back it in no matter what - in this way Scott is the opposite of a guy like Longmire who places too much faith in one system. But I don't think you'll develop instinctive footy when the plan changes so often. Would we have been as successful in H&A with one, continuous system? Hard to say. Probably not.

 

[Vdubs]

Atkins and his 1 contested possession isn't really relevant to discussing midfielders, he's purely an outside player. Brodie Smith is a good-average player but not much more and McGovern while a loss wouldn't have changed much against us either way, may be more significant against Richmond who use a very different structure. You remove the top mid and everyone else has to play up a peg - credit to Adelaide as they have managed to cover that happening to them. Not many teams would - and it will transform any team that gets to release all mids down a peg as well. Dusty to Norf would have surprised many doubters, but we'll never get to see.

And tbh I think the pressure element is overstated. When you make unforced errors, as I saw many of our turnovers to be, it comes from somewhere other than the oppositions defensive effort. We aren't a cohesive unit, which stems from many sources. But our coaching staff aren't willing to settle on a plan and back it in no matter what - in this way Scott is the opposite of a guy like Longmire who places too much faith in one system. But I don't think you'll develop instinctive footy when the plan changes so often. Would we have been as successful in H&A with one, continuous system? Hard to say. Probably not.

Respect your posts a lot, but the (perceived) pressure that Tigers, then Crows delivered from early on in both games, and then right through, was critical in our unfolding, imho. We never had time to measure our possessions, and when guns like Dangerwood are coughing up the ball so frequently, it is contagious.

 

[Landgraft]

Respect your posts a lot, but the (perceived) pressure that Tigers, then Crows delivered from early on in both games, and then right through, was critical in our unfolding, imho. We never had time to measure our possessions, and when guns like Dangerwood are coughing up the ball so frequently, it is contagious.

Fair enough. I don't agree, but it is what it is. The Tiges put on more pressure then the Crows, that much is for certain. It still shouldn't be enough to cause the disintegration that it did, but the why is the real mystery.

A professional AFL player should be able to operate primarily on muscle memory so I'm not sure measuring possessions should define too much. When you take a mark then handball it into an opponent I'm not sure their pressure forced you into that, either.

 

[cynical]

Maybe. Or maybe they simply are best fit for that position at that given time? I never agreed with Murda in defence, Blitz on a wing Kolo on a wing although he's shown a little bit there. Harry has also shown plenty up forward. With Mack and Domsy gone Harry goes back and hopefully Buzza gets some continuity up forward.

If we can get our 2 smalls in Mcarthy and Gregson cranking and the **** can keep his hammies from twanging we might be able to build a formidable pressure forward line. If we get stringer and Ablett it will be very dynamic and dangerous.

I do worry about the backline though. Kolo should go back and we play **** ona wing/fwd flank for his run and pressure acts pushing into the forward line. Hopefully Gardner is ready to take the big step into Domsys shoes, he's got big boots to fill so hopefully the kid is ready to step up.

The reason you get Blicavs/Kolo on the wings is because he simply wont drop them.

The problem with Chris Scott is he looks at Blicavs/Kolo and compares them to guys on the fringe maybe Lang/Thurlow and sees Blicavs and Kolo as bigger bodies and more hardened AFL players so in the short term they will do better.

The thing is those guys arent wingers and they dont have the speed, decision making or outside class.

You cant just pick the best 22 players each week you need to fulfill structures and team balance, some guys who arent really ready will get a bit of a free ride because they fulfill a role others dont (eg varcoe in his early days).

Someone like Buzza should be played as 2nd tall/makeshift ruck because he has attributes we need (Stanley and Blicavs are currently better players but they have hit their cap).

Thurlow and Lang should be getting games even if their form isnt great because they are outside players that we lack.

 

[nananana catman]

I reckon both Richmond and Adelaide showed up our lack of pace, a lot of our smaller players have been out injured this year so I guess that will help next year, but we sure could use a quick forward pocket.

We wouldn't have said that when we beat them though....

 

[cynical]

Feel free to watch Thompsons one game this year, he was a dumpster fire. Definitely one year too long.

As for the Crows midfield in general I don't think it's any deeper than ours

Danger v Sloane
Selwoods v Crouches
Menegola v Greenwood (who was one of Adelaides only poor performers in the prelim, but I digress)

They may have us on the outside but there's no gulf in depth. Honestly the idea of disparity is vastly overstated - its extremely rare to have a difference of more than one player in any position across two teams. Just a question of getting enough good high quality so nobody has to play at a level above their capabilities and getting the guys below to successfully execute. We were like the Giants, getting the first right but not the second.

Sloane and the Crouches have better disposal.

I'd say the Crows have a much better defence with better outside run (ours is limited to shutting down talls).
Their midfield has much better outside players (our inside mids are much better)
They kill us in the ruck.
Forward line is no comparison they are way ahead.

They are quite a bit better than us, the reason we normally dominated them is because their inside midfield brigade was too weak to compete.

 

[Spearman]

And tbh I think the pressure element is overstated. When you make unforced errors, as I saw many of our turnovers to be, it comes from somewhere other than the oppositions defensive effort. We aren't a cohesive unit, which stems from many sources. But our coaching staff aren't willing to settle on a plan and back it in no matter what - in this way Scott is the opposite of a guy like Longmire who places too much faith in one system. But I don't think you'll develop instinctive footy when the plan changes so often. Would we have been as successful in H&A with one, continuous system? Hard to say. Probably not.

Coaching staff need to train the house down this offseason.

First, figure out a game plan that suits the pieces we have on the board. Can't play chess with checkers tiles. Take advantage of PD's omnipresence but don't rely on it.
Second, devise drills that build basic skills and confidence between the players and between lines. Synergy between midfield and forwards. Forwards having synergy amongst themselves. Instinctive skills under pressure.
Third, work with leadership group and challenge(or threaten) underachievers aggressively. Toughest aspect of their job, but they have to motivate some of these guys more. Example; find out what deep down got up Murdoch butt and pass it out to some of the others in need.

 

[Landgraft]

Sloane and the Crouches have better disposal.

I'd say the Crows have a much better defence with better outside run (ours is limited to shutting down talls).
Their midfield has much better outside players (our inside mids are much better)
They kill us in the ruck.
Forward line is no comparison they are way ahead.

They are quite a bit better than us, the reason we normally dominated them is because their inside midfield brigade was too weak to compete.

I would largely agree here. I don't see the gulf as being too wide in any areas, and I do think we have some advantages over them as well. Forward line is the most glaring and imo the most in need of attention.

Interestingly their two wins over us featured an utterly out of the box performance by an unlikely hero - Douglas in R18, Cameron in the prelim. Just a coincidence, but when a guy like that has a starring performance it makes everything look a bit better.

 

[Johnny Cattery]

Sam Newman. He's an old, outdated nutso dinosaur. Don't fancy eade either. Brad Johnson
/ Carey good idea.
No need to throw the baby out with the bathwater-a couple more players, a couple of tweaks-we'll get closer.

Very hard on dinosaurs ...

 

[Ricketz]

Is scotty overcomplicating things you reckon?

Injuries say hi

 

[Ricketz]

reading some of the autospy threads in our close games that we "squeaked over the line" and its interesting to see who got it right in regards to how our season finished up. we had the usual premierships are not won in "insert month" tripe but we also had the this style of play will not win as a premiership and in the end they were right.

Whoop de do, you had a 94.5% chance of randomly picking that conclusion out of a hat. You guys are goooooood!

 

[Goggin Our Best]

I think there is an over reation to Friday nights loss against the Crows- in relation to the title thread

2013 - was no choke - great game - against a top class( premier ) opponent

Last year was dissappointing - tho the inside 50 count was plus 25-30 Geelongs - but that hopeless Geel forward line didnt convert

As for Friday Nights loss to the Crows - maybe i was one of the few who watched the Crows in their last Showdown game - about 8 weeks ago - and they did to Port ( even worse ) what they did to Geel - and Port were in pretty good form at the time . The game was over very quickly - ive never seen Ryder beaten as badly - Boak Ebert Wingard - Robbie Gray - none of them got a kick - honestly it was like men versus boys - it was a total annihilation

Maybe ( for Friday nights loss ) enough credit isnt being given to Adelaide - bear in mind the Cats flogged Syd the week before - i havent forgotten about that game - it actually happened

With the free agency - AFL is becoming like the NRL - things can change very quickly from year to year - clubs that look like they are written off can surprise etc

Overall i think its a pretty good year for the Cats - beat Hawthorn by 86 points - beat Collingwood - great win against the Swans in a final

Im not despondent at all - there will be a loser next Sat who will be alot more despondent than me

 

[Johnny Cattery]

Some of the posts here show the pain of losing.

I was at the game, and have watched some of it on replay. Some of the extreme criticisms are way off. For a start, anyone who really thinks we finished 'level' with Adelaide is kidding themselves about what the Crows did to prepare for finals. They didn't need to win their last two games - by then, they were frying bigger fish with selection and training.

In the game itself, there's a massive magnifying effect caused by the scoring system: a tiny instant in which mistake gets made becomes six points. And when it's six points that you could have got, there only have to be 3 or 4 mistakes and the game is gone.

So, at the risk of feeling disloyal to players who killed themselves: Adelaide's first two goals came from very basic mistakes from Harry Taylor - a dropped mark, and kicking into the player. Bang, turnover; bang bang, goal. Would Harry would have made those mistakes if he had been playing in defence all year? Hard to say - but if you say that, you have to say also that we might not have beaten Sydney if we hadn't had the flexibility to cover Tom Lonergan's late withdrawal.

Getting worries about our bottom six and our bottom ten and over-reliance on Danger and system and the fact that X or Y hasn't become an 'a-grader' or that our coaches should be moved on or flogged in the market square or replaced by Sam Newman don't reflect what happened in the prelim final. IT's fast, it's a matter of millimetres, and the result reflected the fact that we played the best team in the comp, on their home ground, when we'd played the week before. At some stages, we looked tired. They looked like a team that had been on the Gold Coast when we'd been smashing ourselves against Sydney.

Causes of the skill errors we made that cost goals? Some speculation: does the sheer intensity of Joel Selwood and Chris Scott mean some players are too wound up when they take the field?

At times in the really hot contests, and the Adelaide pressure was phenomenal, it looked like players were trying to do something prearranged, rather than do what they had to to get the ball on their terms. Do players become scared of making a mistake or afraid to do something not in the plan?

Was the weight of the retirement of Mackie and Lonergan too great for them and their mates in defence - we just didn't look as settled and organised as we usually do, although kudos to Adelaide for not allowing that.

Maybe the Cats read BigFooty and worry about what Cynical will say?

I agree with those posters who ask whether the emphasis on versatility has gone too far: some guys who could be outstanding in specific jobs don't reach that status because they can't do a range of things well (Menegola, Blicavs, Kolo, Cam Guthrie, Thurlow). But in fact the player who can be elite in two different roles is very, very rare; being elite in one should be enough.

I'm not convinced we need massive changes of personnel among players or coaches, although I'm more relaxed about Menzel leaving than I would have thought possible a year ago; but I really, really hope Motlop stays, and stays in a way that lets him sort out injury and any other issues he might have. He tried his guts out, and was clearly in our best two or three, even though he was heckled and jeered by (Cats) supporters regardless of what he did.

 

[Vdubs]

I think there is an over reation to Friday nights loss against the Crows- in relation to the title thread

2013 - was no choke - great game - against a top class( premier ) opponent

Last year was dissappointing - tho the inside 50 count was plus 25-30 Geelongs - but that hopeless Geel forward line didnt convert

As for Friday Nights loss to the Crows - maybe i was one of the few who watched the Crows in their last Showdown game - about 8 weeks ago - and they did to Port ( even worse ) what they did to Geel - and Port were in pretty good form at the time . The game was over very quickly - ive never seen Ryder beaten as badly - Boak Ebert Wingard - Robbie Gray - none of them got a kick - honestly it was like men versus boys - it was a total annihilation

Maybe ( for Friday nights loss ) enough credit isnt being given to Adelaide - bear in mind the Cats flogged Syd the week before - i havent forgotten about that game - it actually happened

With the free agency - AFL is becoming like the NRL - things can change very quickly from year to year - clubs that look like they are written off can surprise etc

Overall i think its a pretty good year for the Cats - beat Hawthorn by 86 points - beat Collingwood - great win against the Swans in a final

Im not despondent at all - there will be a loser next Sat who will be alot more despondent than me

Love your posts.
I agree with all your points.
And no way were we favourites.
The Swans game did happen- some of us were a bit sucked in by that one, as it was clear during and after they were spent. Having to play multiple elimination finals from rd 7 onwards took its toll finally, and we were there to make the most of it.
I also think we had a very good season overall, considering the intro of 9 debutantes and the injuries to our smalls, and to Dangerwood, & Blicavs.
I was a bit stunned on Fri pm in Adelaide- witnessing it live is pretty hard, on top of our previous 2 topsy-turvy efforts- and a lot poorer! But certainly not despondent either- reality checks will be significant for our growth and development this off-season.

 

[Partridge]

The reason you get Blicavs/Kolo on the wings is because he simply wont drop them.

The problem with Chris Scott is he looks at Blicavs/Kolo and compares them to guys on the fringe maybe Lang/Thurlow and sees Blicavs and Kolo as bigger bodies and more hardened AFL players so in the short term they will do better.

I thought against Sydney, although it was less pressure than Friday night, Lang showed more in one game why he is a natural midfielder and Blicavs and Kolodjashnij aren't.

 

[Vdubs]

We wouldn't have said that when we beat them though....

because our skinny ground negates that pace

 

[Vdubs]

I would largely agree here. I don't see the gulf as being too wide in any areas, and I do think we have some advantages over them as well. Forward line is the most glaring and imo the most in need of attention.

Interestingly their two wins over us featured an utterly out of the box performance by an unlikely hero - Douglas in R18, Cameron in the prelim. Just a coincidence, but when a guy like that has a starring performance it makes everything look a bit better.

And Sloane played a blinder, as well as eliminating Blic from the game

 

[Rubberducky]

Love your posts.
I agree with all your points.
And no way were we favourites.
The Swans game did happen- some of us were a bit sucked in by that one, as it was clear during and after they were spent. Having to play multiple elimination finals from rd 7 onwards took its toll finally, and we were there to make the most of it.
I also think we had a very good season overall, considering the intro of 9 debutantes and the injuries to our smalls, and to Dangerwood, & Blicavs.
I was a bit stunned on Fri pm in Adelaide- witnessing it live is pretty hard, on top of our previous 2 topsy-turvy efforts. But certainly not despondent either- reality checks will be significant for our growth and development this off-season.

Agree with you both.

We had huge injuries and never really had any chance to build momentum in the group.

I do believe there needs to be some reality check type conversations with those that simply couldn't handle the perceived finals pressure. I do also think there are some issues above the shoulders in the group highlighted by our inability to deliver against bottom 8 teams. But this isn't something to over react too, just like another prelim finals loss isn't. We put ourselves in a position to steal a flag but couldn't pull it off.

Impressed with the year and our ability to perform when we could have folded. Will go into 2018 believing we're favorites for the flag until form proves me otherwise. Love the team, love the coaching staff. Would rather people accuse us of choking than not be playing at this end of the year.

 

[Vdubs]

Agree with you both.

We had huge injuries and never really had any chance to build momentum in the group.

I do believe there needs to be some reality check type conversations with those that simply couldn't handle the perceived finals pressure. I do also think there are some issues above the shoulders in the group highlighted by our inability to deliver against bottom 8 teams. But this isn't something to over react too, just like another prelim finals loss isn't. We put ourselves in a position to steal a flag but couldn't pull it off.

Impressed with the year and our ability to perform when we could have folded. Will go into 2018 believing we're favorites for the flag until form proves me otherwise. Love the team, love the coaching staff. Would rather people accuse us of choking than not be playing at this end of the year.

I think we win too many games in h & a by whatever mechanism, as I honestly don't think we are that good. If this is overachieving, I'm not sure. Maybe I am guilty of comparing to our former 07-11 teams. I guess, compared to other teams now, we may actually be ok. But I have not felt since 2013 that we have EVER underachieved. I'm thinking GWS will again start flag favourites next year

 

[Hoffy95]

We're not Prelim chokers. Premierships are extremely difficult to win and we've played to the ability of our list (if not beyond) by getting as far as we have. Adelaide are clearly a superior side to us and will prove it against Richmond as well. They are ruthless, they punish every mistake. They have stars across every line even if many aren't household names.

The real hard truth is that we haven't been the best side in the comp since 2011, in-fact, we've arguably out-performed based on our ladder positions. We've done well to be up near the top for as long as we have even if it brings little comfort. We've been spoilt and have expectations that probably don't align with reality.

Our best footy could win a flag, but the best sides can string 3-4 great games of footy together and that's why we can still beat some of the best but not repeat the effort over 3-4 finals which is what is required. We can look the best but never for long enough and that's what we've done for a few years now.

 

[Nickoo]

I don't think we are chokers. The main thing that is emerging is our game plan seems to get boiled when we are confronted with a team who just do everything to push it fwd at extreme pace. Those first two goals were from errors but the speed and swarming of adel fri, syd this last year, haw with mitchels first goal, tigers QF, melb, coll, north saints just overwhelms us and we can't stem the tide with resultant turnovers. So high pressure is all you require against us to set the tone. We only overcome crap sides, north, melb coll once the stage was set. Its not a matter of slow starting its an inability to man up and confront it I feel. If we don't change that then we are gonski 3.0 next year regardless of who comes in.


Go Cats!!!!!

 

[Tommy the Cat]

Crows were a better team than us this season, simples

Some of the conspiracy theorists here are quiet amusing

 

[Sticksman]

Crows were a better team than us this season, simples

Some of the conspiracy theorists here are quiet amusing

On their own paddock yes; elsewhere different story