Geelong- the dark horse?

[Strapping Young Lad]

Interesting. It is not only about Geelong, you know, there are actually two teams involved. What would happen, do you think, if Adelaide played with the effort they showed against West Coast? Or even if they played with the same effort as in round 7?

You mean the Eagles that got done by Sydney at home the week before and scraped in against North a week earlier. Adelaide's form is overstated. And the Eagles are in a slump.

Actually, I forgot the Crows got done by North too. I know you can only beat who you play, but the Crows have been handed a very nice draw with 3 free hits in the first 16 rounds(GWSx2 & GC), and are not a Top 2 team.

 

[Username_lost]

Sharp as a bowling ball this one.

Surely a bowling ball isn't the sharpest thing you can think of.

 

[Terex8]

Eagles have won 3 of their last 7 games. 1 was by a point against North, 14 points against Carlton at Subiaco and Gold Coast there too, also lost to Brisbane in that patch. Not in great form.

 

[ok.crows]

You mean the Eagles that got done by Sydney at home the week before and scraped in against North a week earlier. Adelaide's form is overstated. And the Eagles are in a slump.

Actually, I forgot the Crows got done by North too. I know you can only beat who you play, but the Crows have been handed a very nice draw with 3 free hits in the first 16 rounds(GWSx2 & GC), and are not a Top 2 team.

I said that it is not only about Geelong. That does not mean that it is not about Geelong. Adelaide have lost only three games all year, whereas Geelong have lost 6, including a ten goal loss to Adelaide.

However you try to disparage Adelaide's form only means that you disparage Geelong's even further.

Also, I think you need to find out what "over-rated" actually means. Adelaide are equal top, and have lost only three games, which is as few or fewer than anybody. This performance has put Adelaide into the top 2. Since you (and others) are trying to sell them short and dismiss their form, doing so is actually known as under-rating Adelaide. You are trying to say they are not performing as well as they actually are.

 

[Terex8]

Adelaid are equal top, and have lost only three games, which is as few or fewer than anybody.

You're only above both Collingwood and Hawthorn on the ladder owing to having played 3 games against GWS and GC. Hawthorn/Collingwood have only played 1 game against these 2 sides.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I said that it is not only about Geelong. That does not mean that it is not about Geelong. Adelaide have lost only three games all year, whereas Geelong have lost 6, including a ten goal loss to Adelaide.

However you try to disparage Adelaide's form only means that you disparage Geelong's even further.

Also, I think you need to find out what "over-rated" actually means. Adelaide are equal top, and have lost only three games, which is as few or fewer than anybody. This performance has put Adelaide into the top 2. Since you (and others) are trying to sell them short and dismiss their form, doing so is actually known as under-rating Adelaide. You are trying to say they are not performing as well as they actually are.

You're missing the point.

Let's say you'd only played one of GWS & GC by now, you'd be sitting about 7th.


Like I said, you can only beat who is in front of you, but the 3 wins against GWS and GC have you sitting in the Top 2, nothing else.

 

[ok.crows]

You're only above both Collingwood and Hawthorn on the ladder owing to having played 3 games against GWS and GC. Hawthorn/Collingwood have only played 1 game against these 2 sides.

If Adelaide did not play a second game against GWS, they would have had to play someone else. Chances are running at about 12/3 (4 to 1) in favour of Adelaide winning against that someone else.

 

[ok.crows]

You're missing the point.

Let's say you'd only played one of GWS & GC by now, you'd be sitting about 7th.

Actually, not so. Not at all. On the "No double up game ladder" Adelaide are 3rd, not 7th.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/no-double-up-game-ladder.962214/page-2#post-24958091

 

[SuperCats9]

I don't like saying we're a ten goal better side. You can say that against the absolute worst of the worst - GC, GWS, Melbourne and Dogs - but anyone else, especailly a side with the experience and hate against Hawthorn that they have, can rise up on the day and stun a side much higher on the ladder.

Cats won't win the flag though .

I know we won't, we'll probably struggle to make the 8, i actually fully expect the Hawks to win the 2012 premiership, they are the best side at the moment, i just hope we beat you guys yet again in round 19.

I've seen 3 flags and i'm only 19, i'm very happy.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Actually, not so. Not at all. On the "No double up game ladder" Adelaide are 3rd, not 7th.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/no-double-up-game-ladder.962214/page-2#post-24958091

You're still missing the point.

Show me the "no GWS or GC" ladder.

 

[ok.crows]

You're still missing the point.

Show me the "no GWS or GC" ladder.

I'm not missing the point at all. Other teams have also played GWS and GCS once. The "No double up game ladder" only counts the first such game, for all clubs. Perfectly fair and balanced. As I said, Adelaide are third. BTW, if the "No double up game ladder" had only counted the second of double up games, Adelaide would probably be second. Adelaide have improved considerably as the season has progressed, they are playing far better now than they were in round 3.

Someone else did a "Top 8 vs Top 8 games only" ladder. On that ladder, Adelaide are also third.

It turns out that it is you who is missing the point. You are seriously under-rating Adelaide, apparently by at least 4 ladder positions, and you hadn't realised it.

 

[ozgamer]

This knee-jerk thread of the HUN kind would never have been born if only the Bombers had won. Watch the Hawks get rolled this Friday nite and see a thread called Essendon - the new dark horse? get started

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'm not missing the point at all. Other teams have also played GWS and GCS once. The "No double up game ladder" only counts the first such game, for all clubs. Perfectly fair and balanced. As I said, Adelaide are third. BTW, if the "No double up game ladder" had only counted the second of double up games, Adelaide would probably be second. Adelaide have improved considerably as the season has progressed, they are playing far better now than they were in round 3.

Someone else did a "Top 8 vs Top 8 games only" ladder. On that ladder, Adelaide are also third.

It turns out that it is you who is missing the point. You are seriously under-rating Adelaide, apparently by at least 4 ladder positions, and you hadn't realised it.

Well it's simple really. I see the Crows scrape in over the Saints, get done by North and then boost their percentage with 3 games against the two new franchises...so yes, I don't rate your year as Top 2 material.

Anyway, it's my opinion Geelong should take the chocolates on the weekend.

 

[ok.crows]

Well it's simple really. I see the Crows scrape in over the Saints, get done by North and then boost their percentage with 3 games against the two new franchises...so yes, I don't rate your year as Top 2 material.

Anyway, it's my opinion Geelong should take the chocolates on the weekend.

Yet you ignore even worse losses by Geelong, and twice as many of them.

You are of course perfectly entitled to your opinion, just as I am perfectly entitled to point out (for the sake of other readers) the illogic and bias in that opinion.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yet you ignore even worse losses by Geelong, and twice as many of them.

Geelongs "average losing margin" is 20 pts.
Adelaides is 38pts, yet you somehow think Geelong's losses have been worse than your Crows.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Geelongs "average losing margin" is 20 pts.
Adelaides is 38pts, yet you somehow think Geelong's losses have been worse than your Crows.

unfortunately Cats have lost more frequently.

despite this I think we will get up against the Crows.

but the flag this year ?
would be shocked.

 

[skilts]

Geelong's loss of Ottens is underrated as a factor in their decline. Scott is rebuilding, as he should.

 

[ok.crows]

Geelongs "average losing margin" is 20 pts.
Adelaides is 38pts, yet you somehow think Geelong's losses have been worse than your Crows.

Adelaide have had only two bad games, and lost only three in total. Geelong have doubled that, with one of their bad losses against Adelaide, as it happens.

That makes Geelong's losses approximately twice as bad as the Crows.

 

[Selective Retention]

Geelong's loss of Ottens is underrated as a factor in their decline. Scott is rebuilding, as he should.

Ottens is a loss no doubt and irreplacable at the sharp end of the season but he missed an awful lot of games over the years without the same effect as now.

Reality is that guys like Scarlett, Corey, Chapman, Wojcinski, Pods have all dropped off 10% on top of retirements of Ottens, Ling etc.

It's an impossible task to replace that and it has been made harder when the players in the age bracket to stand up have missed significant chunks of the season injured or otherwise sidelined.

Hawkins, Duncan and West are part of that bracket and have stepped up relatively well this year.

Dawson Simpson missed the entire pre season and was rushed back with 2 games of VFL footy into him, while Christensen missed chunks of the pre season with a hand injury and has had his season interrupted by niggles as well. Varcoe, Menzel, Vardy, Cowan haven't played a game this year due to injury. Then Stringer who had come in and had shown a bit went and did something stupid.

So instead of these guys that are ready to break out playing as the last few selected in the side, it's Smedts, Murdoch, McCarthy etc as first or second year players that aren't ready to have the same impact as the 3rd or 4th year guys or players that have had the 50+ games into them like Hawkins and Varcoe who have the ability to raise their game again.

We might not have had the high profile injuries of some other clubs but we got hit right in the area that had the most potential to improve the side both this year, and with games under their belts, into the future.

 

[skilts]

Ottens is a loss no doubt and irreplacable at the sharp end of the season but he missed an awful lot of games over the years without the same effect as now.

Reality is that guys like Scarlett, Corey, Chapman, Wojcinski, Pods have all dropped off 10% on top of retirements of Ottens, Ling etc.

It's an impossible task to replace that and it has been made harder when the players in the age bracket to stand up have missed significant chunks of the season injured or otherwise sidelined.

Hawkins, Duncan and West are part of that bracket and have stepped up relatively well this year.

Dawson Simpson missed the entire pre season and was rushed back with 2 games of VFL footy into him, while Christensen missed chunks of the pre season with a hand injury and has had his season interrupted by niggles as well. Varcoe, Menzel, Vardy, Cowan haven't played a game this year due to injury. Then Stringer who had come in and had shown a bit went and did something stupid.

So instead of these guys that are ready to break out playing as the last few selected in the side, it's Smedts, Murdoch, McCarthy etc as first or second year players that aren't ready to have the same impact as the 3rd or 4th year guys or players that have had the 50+ games into them like Hawkins and Varcoe who have the ability to raise their game again.

We might not have had the high profile injuries of some other clubs but we got hit right in the area that had the most potential to improve the side both this year, and with games under their belts, into the future.

Thanks for your considered reply. It was more than my post deserved. I still think your man Scott is the one to take your club to the next stage. He has a hard act to follow, given what Thompson was able to achieve, in similar circumstances, ten or twelve years ago. I'm most impressed with the culture at your club, given the support they gave Thompson when the daggers were out. The greengrocer should have a stand named after him, if he hasn't already.

 

[Claude Balls]

If Adelaide did not play a second game against GWS, they would have had to play someone else. Chances are running at about 12/3 (4 to 1) in favour of Adelaide winning against that someone else.

No, it would be 9/3, or 3 to 1. If we are treating those wins as gimmes, only fair to take them out of the equation when creating odds.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Adelaide have had only two bad games, and lost only three in total. Geelong have doubled that, with one of their bad losses against Adelaide, as it happens.

That makes Geelong's losses approximately twice as bad as the Crows.

Apart from the fact that your losses have been by bigger margins, and 3 of Geelongs losses have been by 12pts and under. But yeah, somehow that translates to "twice as bad" as Adelaide's average losing margin of 38pts.

 

[QuietB]

I know we won't, we'll probably struggle to make the 8, i actually fully expect the Hawks to win the 2012 premiership, they are the best side at the moment, i just hope we beat you guys yet again in round 19.

I've seen 3 flags and i'm only 19, i'm very happy.

Meh. I'd seen 7 by the time I was 19

Hard to pin Geelong at the moment. Lets not forget that they were pretty average about this time last year. As a Hawks fan hopefully they start dropping a few more games and we dont have to deal with them in September. Having said that I think the Hawks might arive with their own pact next week.

 

[MinerBoy]

As a Hawks fan hopefully they start dropping a few more games and we dont have to deal with them in September.

F*** I hope so.

Having said that I think the Hawks might arive with their own pact next week.

F*** I hope so.

 

[DTRAIN87]

Meh. I'd seen 7 by the time I was 19

Hard to pin Geelong at the moment. Lets not forget that they were pretty average about this time last year. As a Hawks fan hopefully they start dropping a few more games and we dont have to deal with them in September. Having said that I think the Hawks might arive with their own pact next week.

Average? They had won 16 and lost 2 by this time last year.