General AFL Discussion #8 - Carlton Supporters ONLY !!!

[Tanks_Alot]

In my Baileys they finish 2 games out of the 8 but if they lose to Richmond in Rd22 then 3 games out and Richmond 2 games out with Saints between them on the ladder and Adelaide ahead of them in 9th a game behind Nth in 8th, so it doesnt much matter. I cant remember if I tipped them to beat Saints but I do tip Swans to beat them I do remember that. Swans even without Goodes are a better team than them. Saints not so much, but they do have a better spread of talent than Essendon albeit it is ageing talent and is now hot and cold. One week Milne is an 6 goal small the next is missing completely. Same with Roo, but this is a team that still has Lenny Hayes, Brendon Goddard, Montagna, Del Santo, Fisher (although just injured), and Kozi, who I dont rate so highly but is still dangerous on his day, even Sam Gilbert can be dangerous. There problem is they now have a poor bottom 6 and a lot of journeymen players in their mid 6 and it is now rare they all show up on the same day. But if they do, they blow sides like Essendon away.

But what is your point. You still dont seem to have one.

It doesnt matter dude, they wont make it. You dont have them making it either. SO WHAT IS YOUR POINT. You say it is because you have Nth and Adel having default wins against the expansion sides, but if Nth and Adel win and SO do Ess that round so what, its no gain. You must have Essendon losing the requisite number of games to miss out, no matter who Adel and Nth get to play. Its flawed logic. I have Essendon not winning enough games to make the 8, so do you, so remind me again what is your point.

My point is that you should show Essendon some respect because you have shown absolutely no respect to a team that thumped us. Just about every 50/50 game they have you've tipped them to lose, and you've tipped them to lose to the Saints (according to your previous posts) and the Swans who will be without Adam Goodes. Now let me remind you of something, Essendon have beaten St kilda the last 4 times they've played. Saints haven't gotten better since then if anything they're worse. The Bombers also have a very good record against the Swans and without a star player like Goodes the odds are well and truely in their favour to win that one as well.

The ONLY reason they miss out on the 8 in my ladder predictor is because I picked Nth to beat them. That is a 50/50 game and Essendon could very easily win that one to take them into the 8 ahead of Freo (I think I messed up and put Freo ahead of Adelaide, when I had the Crows above them).

What if they beat us again? Did you ever stop and think about that? It shouldn't have happened in round 4 and it shouldn't the next time we play but if we put in another piss poor effort against them we'll certainly lose to them again. That would boost their chances even further.

And to say that using the draw to determine who finishes higher than who is flawed logic is absolute horse shit. The draw plays a VERY big part in determining not only the top 4, but also the top 8. Adelaide not only get GC and GWS twice but they also get Port Adelaide twice as well. That's 6 wins! Half required to make the 8 just like that. Then you factor in the fact that they play Melbourne and Brisbane and have already beaten the Bulldogs. There's 9 almost automatic wins. Then there's home games at AAMI that will give them a distinct advantage against other middle of the table teams. Now tell me how that is flawed logic when Essendon do not play the same teams the same amount of times to get those 9 wins?

To say that there is no way they're going to make the 8 is just plain disrespectful to a quality side. I hate Essendon more than anyone on this site but at least I'm able to look past that and be objective when I assess their chances.

 

[parrot]

Essendon a rubbishy little side, who got the jump on us in the last game with some trademark ugly sniper tactics i.e. "if you can't beat your opponents, injure them" strategy. Even then we almost rolled them in the last 1/4. Talent-wise we're miles ahead. It's not even close. This is why I'm enjoying the hype the media-cheerleaders are giving them right now. It's going to make the next thrashing we hand out to them even sweeter.

 

[parrot]

Their new mascot apparently.

 

[Wickzki]

Here's my effort at the Bailey's Ladder Predictor;

1. Carlton 19-3 140.3 76
2. West Coast 18-4 135.0 72
3. Hawthorn 17-5 124.9 68
4. Collingwood 16-6 118.5 64
5. Sydney 16-6 116.0 64
6. Adelaide 16-6 114.2 64
7. Essendon 15-7 116.2 60
8. Geelong 14-8 125.1 56

9. North Melb 14-8 112.0 56
10. St. Kilda 10-12 106.5 40
11. Fremantle 10-12 102.5 40
12. Richmond 8-14 93.9 32
13. Bulldogs 5-17 78.3 20
14. Brisbane 5-17 74.6 20
15. GWS 5-17 64.0 20
16. Port Ade. 4-18 81.0 16
17. Gold Coast 4-18 72.9 16
18. Melbourne 2-20 67.4 8

Too many wins for GWS but it's how I see it shaping up.

 

[40yearBLUE]

My point is that you should show Essendon some respect because you have shown absolutely no respect ........

To say that there is no way they're going to make the 8 is just plain disrespectful to a quality side. I hate Essendon more than anyone on this site but at least I'm able to look past that and be objective when I assess their chances.

What absolute horseshit wrapped in a layer of bullshit just to bamboozle.

You say show them some respect because they are a quality side? You have them tenth in your predictions. SO 10th is now a quality side?

And why do you have them 10th? Because other teams have a better draw? Thats your logic? Other teams have a better draw which means a quality side, (just not good enough quality to win the required number of games to make the 8 in your view) wont make it as a result. Can you not see just how stupid this argument is.

If Essendon having already won 5 games can win another 10, regardless of who other teams get to play twice they will not only make the 8 they will nudge the top 4. If they win another 6 they may still make the 8, 7 more almost guarantees it, 11 wins is sometimes enough, probably not this year but usually 11 wins sneaks you in, 12 will get you in though.

But you dont have them winning that many otherwise they would make it. So put your horseshit about other teams draws away, its irrelevant. The only relevance in making the 8 for us and every other team is how many games we or they can win. If we win enough games it wont matter how many Adelaide win because they have a better draw our wins will be enough. Same goes for Essendon.

I have Essendon losing 50/50 games because I dont rate them and they have already had some wins in 50/50 games so the law of averages will catch up with them. They were extremely lucky to win against Nth and I definately have Nth winning the return bout. I dont have them beating Sydney, I cant remember if I have them beating the Saints but as I mentioned to you, in my Baileys they finish 2 games out and 3 out if they lose another 50/50 against the Tigers.

Like I have pointed out to you a number of times, this quality team you rave about lost 8 games in a row in the middle of last season. They went from 4th on the ladder to 10th. So excuse me if I tell you I have heard and read all this rubbish about their quality before. Thats the quality I rate them as, 8 losses in a row. Show me the evidence that they are better than that. And dont give me they beat us rubbish. That was an upset win. Its called an upset because it was contrary to form or recognised quality. The only people that dont think it was an upset are deluded Essendon people.

Next time an underdog beats the rated opposition do you honestly think that makes the winner suddenly quality?

 

[Tanks_Alot]

What absolute horseshit wrapped in a layer of bullshit just to bamboozle.

You say show them some respect because they are a quality side? You have them tenth in your predictions. SO 10th is now a quality side?

And why do you have them 10th? Because other teams have a better draw? Thats your logic? Other teams have a better draw which means a quality side, (just not good enough quality to win the required number of games to make the 8 in your view) wont make it as a result. Can you not see just how stupid this argument is.

Everybody else who understands footy will tell you that easier draws means easier wins which means better chance to make finals. Can you not see how stupid your logic is? As I said the Crows have 9 almost automatic wins and a distinct advatage over middle of the table teams because of AAMI stadium. If you don't think that aids their finals chances you're an idiot. Essendon don't have that luxury, and while they've had a fairly easy draw so far, it is going to be much tougher in the second half of the season and certainly MUCH tougher than Adelaide's.

If Essendon having already won 5 games can win another 10, regardless of who other teams get to play twice they will not only make the 8 they will nudge the top 4. If they win another 6 they may still make the 8, 7 more almost guarantees it, 11 wins is sometimes enough, probably not this year but usually 11 wins sneaks you in, 12 will get you in though.

But you dont have them winning that many otherwise they would make it. So put your horseshit about other teams draws away, its irrelevant. The only relevance in making the 8 for us and every other team is how many games we or they can win. If we win enough games it wont matter how many Adelaide win because they have a better draw our wins will be enough. Same goes for Essendon.

If you actually bother to read the post, I said they ONLY missed the 8 because I tipped them to lose to Nth, but that is a 50/50 game and if they win it they're in by knocking Freo out. So I do have them winning that many and other team's draws are relevant you twat.

If there's a team that has to play Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast twice and you compare that draw to Adelaide's it is MUCH HARDER to win the required amount of games. To say that it is irrelevant only highlights your lack of football knowledge.

I suppose you know more than the clubs who whinge about draws every year I guess they're doing that for fun, because you know, the draws are irrelevant

I have Essendon losing 50/50 games because I dont rate them and they have already had some wins in 50/50 games so the law of averages will catch up with them. They were extremely lucky to win against Nth and I definately have Nth winning the return bout. I dont have them beating Sydney, I cant remember if I have them beating the Saints but as I mentioned to you, in my Baileys they finish 2 games out and 3 out if they lose another 50/50 against the Tigers.

Like I have pointed out to you a number of times, this quality team you rave about lost 8 games in a row in the middle of last season. They went from 4th on the ladder to 10th. Thats the quality I rate them as. Show me the evidence that they are better than that. And dont give me they beat us rubbish. That was an upset win. Its called an upset because it was contrary to form or recognised quality. The only people that dont think it was an upset are deluded Essendon people.

Next time an underdog beats the rated opposition do you honestly think that makes the winner suddenly quality?

Lol I said they're a quality side, not an elite quality side. Shit teams can't cause upsets against highly rated teams. So far they caused the upset against us and have a good chance at doing it against the Eagles and the Cats later on in the year.

And I didn't base that on the fact that they beat us, I based it on the fact that they made finals last year even though they had a bad couple of months and they are capable of beating most of the top end teams.

 

[40yearBLUE]

Oh sorry I didnt understand your rating system. Let me see if I have it right now

Quality quality elite elite team (Us)

Quality elite elite teams (WC, Hawks, Cats, Pies)

Quality elite teams (sydney)

Elite teams (Freo, Adelaide)

Quality teams (Nth, Essendon depending on who wins the return bout later in the year)

Average side (Saints)

Average average side (Tigers, Bulldogs)

Rubbish sides (Brisbane,)

Rubish rubbish sides (Port, Melbourne)

Unbelievably rubbish rubbish sides (GWS, Suns)

That how it works now?

 

[Malifice]

Anyone notice that every shifight on these boards involves 40yb.

 

[Tanks_Alot]

Oh sorry I didnt understand your rating system. Let me see if I have it right now

Quality quality elite elite team (Us)

Quality elite elite teams (WC, Hawks, Cats, Pies)

Quality elite teams (sydney)

Elite teams (Freo, Adelaide)

Quality teams (Nth, Essendon depending on who wins the return bout later in the year)

Average side (Saints)

Average average side (Tigers, Bulldogs)

Rubbish sides (Brisbane,)

Rubish rubbish sides (Port, Melbourne)

Unbelievably rubbish rubbish sides (GWS, Suns)

That how it works now?

Nope, wrong as usual.

It would be Elite quality (Carl, WCE, Haw, Geel, Coll)
quality (Sydney, Ess, Adel, North, Fre )
average (Bris, Dogs, Saints, Tigers)
shit (GWS, GC, Melb, Port)

 

[ESKIE]

Of course injuries could occur and could significantly affect their results, but could the same not be said for every other side in the competition?

If we lost Jamison, Judd or Murphy for the season, would we not suffer as a result?

What about Geelong with Selwood, Bartel and Stevie J?

Collingwood with Cloke, Swan and Pendlebury? One could easily argue it's already happening to the Pies who have suffered a number of serious injuries.

Hawthorn with Franklin, Rioli and Mitchell?

Take any key player out of any side, no matter if they're 1st or 18th, and they'll likely struggle to cover for them fully.

That the Eagles have managed to continue winning despite a number of key players is a marvel, and probably testament to just how sound their structures are. I have no doubt that at some stage the loss of key personnel will affect them significantly but when that will be, we just don't know. One more injury and you'd think they may just struggle to show the competition what they've got, which is a shame.

To discount Essendon's chances of progressing based on a hypothetical injury or three doesn't sit right with me at all. That's not a situation that Essendon may face exclusively.

Essendon have a pretty significant injury list at the moment and their performances don't seem to be suffering too much as a result, either.

No I wasn't suggesting that injuries were exclusive to essendon, just something that needed to be considered, and yes with all teams, not just them, i certainly wasn't suggesting that.
Agree that they have managed very well thus far with their injury list and have surprised, they are playing well and look an very even side, and credit where its due. I felt they would make the 8 at season start and stil do

 

[40yearBLUE]

Nope, wrong as usual.

It would be Elite quality (Carl, WCE, Haw, Geel, Coll)
quality (Sydney, Ess, Adel, North, Fre )
average (Bris, Dogs, Saints, Tigers)
shit (GWS, GC, Melb, Port)

Well Dumb_Abit, its bordering on bullying now. I guess you really need the emoticons to see when people are messin widja. My Bad.

 

[Cazbah]

I've been a bit slow lately, but what was with all the love for Bootsma the other day?

 

[Tanks_Alot]

Well Dumb_Abit, its bordering on bullying now. I guess you really need the emoticons to see when people are messin widja. My Bad.

What's the matter? Got nothing left? You had to resort to a bullcrap post because you've got nothing left after I've quite clearly highlighted the relevance of the draw and how it will impact Essendon's chances of making the 8.

Funny how something so irrelevant gets brought up every year amongst footy circles by coaches and the media (who involves former players), maybe you should go talk to them, give them some councelling

 

[40yearBLUE]

I've been a bit slow lately, but what was with all the love for Bootsma the other day?

I kinda wondered that myself. Think about his game without the crowd involvement. He comes on in the last when we were finally up and about (and we kept them scoreless) so he wasnt under a great deal of pressure. He did get 7 touches though, so I guess you could argue had he been on for the entire game he might have got 28 which would have been a tremendous début. So its a difficult one to assess.

I doubt he did enough to keep other players out for now. For mine it was a taste, certainly not overawed by it but wont get another game next week you wouldnt think.

 

[40yearBLUE]

What's the matter? Got nothing left? You had to resort to a bullcrap post because you've got nothing left after I've quite clearly highlighted the relevance of the draw and how it will impact Essendon's chances of making the 8.

Funny how something so irrelevant gets brought up every year amongst footy circles by coaches and the media (who involves former players), maybe you should go talk to them, give them some councelling

What I am saying is, if you are going to correct me on terms such as quality quality elite then there isnt much point to me continuing is there?

I have never argued that the draw is fair for all, it clearly is not. But what I do find rather risible is the notion that a side with a 5:1 record being talked in the press about their top 4 credentials can moan about other sides having an easier draw. And they do have a tough draw coming in the second half. Their only easy game is Port but its at their home ground. So there is a possiblity that they could eclipse last years monumental slide with an even greater one.

I dont rate them, I dont respect them, I dont think they are quality. I think that this might be one I bump for you when they inevitably fail as they did last year and finish outside the 8. Because Adelaide got to play some of the bottom teams of course, goes without saying that the reason Essendon will lose so many games is because Adelaide have an easier draw.

 

[Tanks_Alot]

What I am saying is, if you are going to correct me on terms such as quality quality elite then there isnt much point to me continuing is there?

I have never argued that the draw is fair for all, it clearly is not. But what I do find rather risible is the notion that a side with a 5:1 record being talked in the press about their top 4 credentials can moan about other sides having an easier draw. And they do have a tough draw coming in the second half. Their only easy game is Port but its at their home ground. So there is a possiblity that they could eclipse last years monumental slide with an even greater one.

I dont rate them, I dont respect them, I dont think they are quality. I think that this might be one I bump for you when they inevitably fail as they did last year and finish outside the 8. Because Adelaide got to play some of the bottom teams of course, goes without saying that the reason Essendon will lose so many games is because Adelaide have an easier draw.

Not what I was saying at all. I said that Essendon will find it hard to make the 8 because Adelaide will rack up a lot of wins because of their easier draw. The more wins Adelaide have, the more wins essendon will need to overtake them. It's hard to match or better Adelaide's winning rate when you've got to play harder teams and they have 9 gimme's. The Bombers could win 12 games but if the 8th team has won 13 they'll miss out when they normally would get in with 12.

Last year we finished 5th with a fair amount of wins for a 5th place team and in most other years, the amount of wins we had would've got us 4th at the least. But WC only had to play the remaining top 5 teams only once through the whole season.

Don't tell me you think that if WC had to play Geelong at SS instead of having another match against Melb they would be sitting on the same amount of wins. Take one win off WCE last year, puts them on 16 wins compared to our 14.5. Now, we get to play say GC again instead of Collingwood, we would've been sitting on 15.5 wins with the same amount of losses, but probably would've been far more motivated to beat the Saints and could've finished top 4 instead of the Eagles last year.
There's one way of many that a draw can shape the top 4 let alone the 8.

 

[Azul]

I dont rate them, I dont respect them, I dont think they are quality.

Isn't that the point?

How many times in the past few years have Essendon gone in as underdogs and walked away with the 4 points?

 

[thylacine60]

Anyone notice that every shifight on these boards involves 40yb.

Hey, I used to shitfight!























coulda been a contender...

 

[40yearBLUE]

Isn't that the point?

How many times in the past few years have Essendon gone in as underdogs and walked away with the 4 points?

Yep, if you go back to the vent threads after the losses to them over the past few years, these are the ones I am most annoyed about, last year the Essendon draw annoyed me more than the WC loss because we knew WC were a quality (not an elite elite quality quality ) side so losing too them was not a disgrace (although the WB loss was). So we had 1 very poor game against the bombers and a disgraceful loss to WB. So far this year we have the one against the bombers again. I cant think of too many wins last year that were not regulation. In other words we didnt beat any teams we shouldnt have and beat most of the teams we should have, but lost some we shouldnt too to blot that copybook, a sure sign of a not quite mature team.

I just hope that this years loss to them is a one of those cathartic moments that galvanise a team. So far it does not look like it, we have seemed flat ever since. That can all change with a good win against a quality team (quality elite on the new scale). And whilst the Collingwood win was stirring, we would need to follow it up with another against the Cats, or Hawks to cement that improvement as more than just catching a good team with injuries. The Essendon loss the week after took most if not all the gloss off that win and put some doubts back in as to whether we have quite arrived yet. On paper it seems we should get enough wins in (and our draw is not the toughest out there, thats true) to finish in the top 4, but if we lack the mental toughness we could be found out when there is no next week.

I dont think that is the case, but it has to make you wonder after such an insipid display as we put on that day.

 

[HARKER]

Hey, I used to shitfight!

coulda been a contender...

You'll always my champ, Thy.

 

[Dramoth]

One blue chip midfielder short of competing for a premiership.

And about 5 defenders short when Fletcher retires...

Lloyd is just seriously embarrassing himself now and needs to get a grip of something other than his wonka bar...

 

[zeeCFC]

Anyone notice that every shifight on these boards involves 40yb.

How many 40yr olds have you done the no pants dance with is what we all want to know though!

 

[Malifice]

How many 40yr olds have you done the no pants dance with is what we all want to know though!

Actually my first 40 y/o was a few weeks ago. She had very bushy eyebrows.

Like a wizard.

Back OT, Essendon will tire this year me thinks. They built up for power and size in the gym, and not endurance IIRC.

The results have been the physical monstering of a few sides (like us) and a shitload of soft tissue injuries.

Lets see if they can sustain it.

 

[Krooooze]

I am loving the media hype around Ess. Takes the focus off us for the time being.

The funny thing is Lloyd said two weeks ago that they couldn't beat us in rd4, and two weeks later he is now claiming that they are top 4 material and can win a flag. They lost to a seriously undermanned Pies outfit who aren't playing anywhere near the footy they are capable of, and beat up on a young Lions side who are terrible. Didn't we beat them by 100pts at the Gabba 4 or 5 weeks ago?

We all know they won't be winning a flag. They will have to beat possibly 3 of Haw, WCE, Geel, Coll and Carl at the G to taste glory. It simply won't happen. They don't have enough quality on their list to be a serious contender. We have heard this all before about the Bombers.

People are saying they have a big injury list. Aside from Hurley, who would make a huge difference to their team? Myers, McVeigh, Prismall, Hibberd, Winderlich? Please! And Bellchambers has gone past Hille.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Another article has gone onto HUN website regarding Warnock possibly moving onto GWS, Collingwood or someone else.
As much as I know it really is a must to have 3 good rucks at our disposal, I was wondering, if he did go, what do people think he would be worth?
I for one don't want him to leave, but it seems a likely scenario if he doesn't get many games this year he will be gone. Another injury (possibly) right now and the first half of this season for him is already gone.
Thoughts?