Rumour GFC 2019 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists.

[Live in hope]

This isn’t 100% accurate. Houli was recruited prior to this game plan. Caddy was opportunistic. Prestia is not quicker than any other mid in any other team off the first 10 meters.

I’d say it’s more about coaching and training a game style. It looks supernatural, but it’s just tactics based on percentages.

Bang it forward at all costs, whether handball or tap, even when tackled. The rest of the surrounding teammates also move forward.

The forwards run towards goal and then turn around and run at the ball carrier. They take the mark that’s speared at them or it goes past them for a small to run onto.

Sometimes it will be intercepted by the opposition and they will look to capitalise on this turnover. But if the Tigers mids are charging forwards at them, then they have less time to pick a target and they just bang it forward.

Meanwhile the Richmond backs move forward as well so that when the ball is kicked forward by the opposition, it’s cut off. Pretty simple. It just requires commitment.

The way to beat it is to win the contest and knock it back past the swarm of Richmond players and take possession leaving them behind the ball. You often see Stewart run at the ball when it’s being swarmed with chaos ball so that he can tap it back through their line of attack. Even Bews was trying to do this. Just attack the ball and bodyline it.

Adding to this, by using the boundary with clean and sharp kicks, you can isolate their players contest by contest or create a stoppage which your contest winning players can win cleanly and burst away from. If it’s turned over near the boundary, your backs and mids are in a better position to defend the swarm.

Kick-mark play is also effective. Just play that Hawthorn style game from 2013-2015.

You need contest winners and great ball users to take territory, as well as set up a wall of defence.

That’s why missing Duncan and Hawkins killed us in that game.

Not sure I agree on Prestia’s pace (looks pretty quick to me) but agree on their game style. I also agree on the tactics used to counter and beat it, but with the caveat that the kick/mark method is extremely fragile against effective, sustained, fanatical swarming. Just look at how extremely good kick/mark teams in GFs in Adelaide (against Bulldogs) and Eagles (against Tigers) were smashed by fanatical swarmers. Sure, Magpies did beat Tigers with kick/mark in prelim last year but only after an absolute stinker choke by Richmond in the first half. In 2013-2015 Hawks did have a wonderfully effective kick/mark game backed up by a wall like zone but they played a 1 dimensional Freo team and Swans who relied massively on Buddy and little else to beat the zone.

We are set up for kick/mark but I am extremely pessimistic that this style can beat a rampaging, swarming team with good firepower, even if we had the foot skills across the team, which we don’t- by a long way.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

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I think it does. You can't apply the skin until you have the skeleton and heart and lungs in place to my mind.

If you look at our past couple of years it looks fairly concurrent. We've added players but drafted pretty well. Guys like Sav, Henry, MOC, Clark, Constable drafted at the youth end and looking like they could be heart and lungs players. Guys like Kelly and Stewart added in the mid-age range. Ablett, Dahlhaus, Rohan added from other clubs.

Not being able to do both simultaneously sounds like an excuse given by clubs who have messed one of them up

 

[year of the cat]

I look at the past three player movement periods for us and see a good balance. 16 ND selections, 3 trades, 1 FA and 6 rookies. So an average of roughly 5 ND, 1 trade, 1 in 3 FA and 2 rookies.

Kelly's departure will give us a strong draft hand this year but other than that I think we will see more of the same balanced approach.

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The ones that stand out from that are clearly the Tuohy and Ablett trades. Not critical of either as it’s very easy with the wisdom of hindsight. Though thought we could have got better deals with both at the time.

But moving forward, I wouldn’t want to see those types of trades done for a few years at least. Reserve any trades to lower picks if we do trade unless it’s for a kid under 22.

 

[year of the cat]

[
If you look at our past couple of years it looks fairly concurrent. We've added players but drafted pretty well. Guys like Sav, Henry, MOC, Clark, Constable drafted at the youth end and looking like they could be heart and lungs players. Guys like Kelly and Stewart added in the mid-age range. Ablett, Dahlhaus, Rohan added from other clubs.

Not being able to do both simultaneously sounds like an excuse given by clubs who have messed one of them up

See I’d argue we haven’t got anywhere near that skeleton for our next flag assault. We need at least another 2-3 elite mids, an elite KPF and a top line KPD. We have some limbs (to continue the analogy) in place but need way more.

 

[BigCat1]

By that you are effectively acknowledging that late picks are of no value being used in the draft. Better off being used for trade purposes. I'm not sure I subscribe to that. If you look at the Tigers they have been very successful of late with their late/rookie picks.

But the core of the team is A graders. Rance, Martin, Riewoldt, Lynch, Cotchin, Prestia all 1st Rounders.

Geelong are similar in that it is 1000% percent easier to find role players when you slot them around superstars. Where are our next superstars if we don’t have early picks or FS/academy access. Slot some of those players into Carl etc and you get a vastly different result.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The ones that stand out from that are clearly the Tuohy and Ablett trades. Not critical of either as it’s very easy with the wisdom of hindsight. Though thought we could have got better deals with both at the time.

But moving forward, I wouldn’t want to see those types of trades done for a few years at least. Reserve any trades to lower picks if we do trade unless it’s for a kid under 22.

We barely gave anything away for either Tuohy or Ablett

 

[cynical]

Hmm. Don’t understand why it can’t be concurrent.

I'd have thought you'd do a graph of age profiles

i'll break it down, lets pretend you start off with 5 good 18 year olds and lets assume they are all good players at 28 (after that age they become average)

you can either add 2 good 18 year olds each year, or 1 good 18 year old and 2 good 25 year olds,

what is the most optimum way to get the most good players on your list at 1 time?

if you start with 5 and add 2 kids each year you'll end up with a maximum of 25 good players by year 10 (5 kids + 2 kids a year for 10 years)
if you go with the mature agers you end up with a max of 23 good players by year 10 (5 kids +10 kids + 8 mature , the mature agers max at 8)
if you go with kids for 6 years and then mature players then you get 29 good players by year 10(5 + 12(6*2) +8matures + 4 kids)

what happens is the mature agers continually need to be replaced after 4 years so you are capping the amount of talent you can have at 1 time

in the example we are stuck on 23 and cant get higher (which the premierships sides achieve even if for only a couple of years)

we'll be replacing 2015 top ups with 2019 top ups, 2016 top ups with 2020 top ups

 

[year of the cat]

But the core of the team is A graders. Rance, Martin, Riewoldt, Lynch, Cotchin, Prestia all 1st Rounders.

Geelong are similar in that it is 1000% percent easier to find role players when you slot them around superstars. Where are our next superstars if we don’t have early picks or FS/academy access. Slot some of those players into Carl etc and you get a vastly different result.

They are but they also have a very solid group of late pick/rookies as well.

We will need though to find that elite core that they have been able to. And that will in all likelihood require some high picks to achieve.

 

[catempire]

I'd have thought you'd do a graph of age profiles

i'll break it down, lets pretend you start off with 5 good 18 year olds and lets assume they are all good players at 28 (after that age they become average)

you can either add 2 good 18 year olds each year, or 1 good 18 year old and 2 good 25 year olds,

what is the most optimum way to get the most good players on your list at 1 time?

if you start with 5 and add 2 kids each year you'll end up with a maximum of 25 good players by year 10 (5 kids + 2 kids a year for 10 years)
if you go with the mature agers you end up with a max of 23 good players by year 10 (5 kids +10 kids + 8 mature , the mature agers max at 8)
if you go with kids for 6 years and then mature players then you get 29 good players by year 10(5 + 12(6*2) +8matures + 4 kids)

what happens is the mature agers continually need to be replaced after 4 years so you are capping the amount of talent you can have at 1 time

in the example we are stuck on 23 and cant get higher (which the premierships sides achieve even if for only a couple of years)

we'll be replacing 2015 top ups with 2019 top ups, 2016 top ups with 2020 top ups

You’ve tipped Geelong to miss the 8 for the past seven years. Your opinion on judging list talent is invalid.

 

[year of the cat]

We barely gave anything away for either Tuohy or Ablett

Tuohy ended up being not much but was a risk at the time with that pick swap. Pick 19 is a decent pick for an over 30. As I say, not critical of it but just don’t want those types of trades done for a few years now.

 

[foxdog50]

The umpiring consistency is beyond a joke
The game needs simple rules that are clear cut enforced 100/ of the time
Kicking in danger is back in vogue, protected zone is gone

I'm definitely not sticking up for umpires here but , the rule changes every bloody year doesn't help. They need to go back 20 years ago when there were the same rules they have had for years. But they keep trying to do rule changes every year. There not many games in the world of sport would have as many rules in a game of sport....
But this is another subject.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

See I’d argue we haven’t got anywhere near that skeleton for our next flag assault. We need at least another 2-3 elite mids, an elite KPF and a top line KPD. We have some limbs (to continue the analogy) in place but need way more.

Maybe, I'd argue we gave a better skeleton than most of the clubs we've previously been competing for premierships with. I think everything just comes down to opportunity. Another Dangerfield comes knocking we won't say no, and if they don't we draft.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Tuohy ended up being not much but was a risk at the time with that pick swap. Pick 19 is a decent pick for an over 30. As I say, not critical of it but just don’t want those types of trades done for a few years now.

You absolutely cannot argue that the Ablett trade has hampered any future rebuild given the pick we got back was used to select Kelly and we're about to turn him into a strong draft position.

 

[cynical]

You’ve tipped Geelong to miss the 8 for the past seven years. Your opinion on judging list talent is invalid.

we both know that isn't true

as expected instead of trying to understand something you prefer to dismiss it and stick with your own wrong assumptions

 

[year of the cat]

You absolutely cannot argue that the Ablett trade has hampered any future rebuild given the pick we got back was used to select Kelly and we're about to turn him into a strong draft position.

Did I say that?

 

[Leeds17]

I've been impressed over the last 2-3 years with the 2nd year development of a lot of our players, Sav, Miers, Henry, Narkle, O'Connor, Buzza (I thought he looked below VFL standard first year, border line AFL standard 2nd) so I'm excited to see what Jarvis, Kennerley, Tarca, Brownless, Krueger, Schlensog look like in 5-6 months time & which ones take the leap.

What Clarke did this season off no pre-season & really only taking footy seriously for the last 24 months was amazing he really could be anything.

 

[Mahlepi]

we need some some free wins - richmond picked up 2 player types we are desperate for for free

 

[catman2006]

we need some some free wins - richmond picked up 2 player types we are desperate for for free

We did with Kelly, we just need Constable Nakia and Fogarty to cement places in best 22

 

[catempire]

we both know that isn't true

True.

You tipped us to make it in 2015 when we missed.

 

[STPer18]

I prefer draft first then filling gaps with trades as well - case in point the Henderson trade. Nothing against him, but at the time the pickup made sense with a lot of our defenders to retire over the next 2-3 years, Rivers, Enright, Makie and Lonergan. Fast forward to 2019 though and it's not Henderson who has replaced those blokes but youngsters like Kolo, Henry and O'Connor, not to mention 2x AA Tom Stewart and Blicavs. No one would have foresaw that, but sometimes you don't know what you've got until you let the kids handle the responsibility.

Basically if we had our time over again I can't see us trading a future 1st for Henderson when we had higher quality players developing on, or soon to be added to the list. Hit draft hard--->Build foundations of team--->Recruit for holes. My opinion.

 

[STPer18]

^^^^^
Also maybe even Hamling who couldn't get a game then went on to be a Premiership full back. Back them in.

 

[thecatattack]

2017 Pick 19 which was an irregularly high compo pick for Motlop (became Will Powell)
2018 round 2 pick (idk wtf this became)

for

Gary Ablett Jr
2017 Pick 24 (became Tim Kelly and we'll get/got a good return from him)
2018 round 4 pick (idk wtf this became)

Doesn't seem as bad as people think.

 

[thecatattack]

Also, we gave up Smedts, a round 1 pick and like pick 63 for Tuohy and a 2nd round pick.

Tuohy was 28 and has been best 22 for us until he got hurt this year.

Again, not a bad trade at all.

 

[Turbocat]

I think it does. You can't apply the skin until you have the skeleton and heart and lungs in place to my mind.

Hmm. Don’t understand why it can’t be concurrent.

Unless you are building a list from scratch GWS/GC style then you have a list in place to work with. You assess what changes are needed to that list and you execute accordingly.

But even if you make the assessment that the list is say 4-5 years off being a contender (which isn’t Geelong’s situation by the way), you can still draft stacks of talent at the same time as bringing in ready made players so long as you are not trading out high picks for them.

Interesting discussion ...

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Did I say that?

Were you not implying that we gave away pick 19 in isolation for Ablett and that this was a bad decision? You pointed it out as on be that stood out