Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Free Agency Period​

The AFL introduced free agency at the end of the 2012 season, giving players another vehicle where they can transfer from one club to another. Free agency is a common form of player movement in major football and sporting codes around the world.

Free Agency Opens: Friday October 4 at 9.00am
Free Agency Closes: Friday October 11 at 5.00pm

Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period​

Trade Period Opens: Monday October 7 at 9.00am
Trade Period Closes: Wednesday October 16 at 7.30pm

 

[Pure_Ownage]

This draft has depth. Happy to take more this year

I don't think the draft is super at the top end (last year was way better there) but for depth through the back end I agree there will be some decent role players. In particular we might be able to find a small defender that we need and maybe a ruck.

 

[catman2006]

I don't think the draft is super at the top end (last year was way better there) but for depth through the back end I agree there will be some decent role players. In particular we might be able to find a small defender that we need and maybe a ruck.

trick is how do we get more late picks this year other than trading future picks.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

This is a good call.

Assuming Smith gets over to us, I'm pretty comfortable with where our list is going into next year already. If C Guthrie can get his body right, even better, and if he does I think the couple of years he's had off could even extend his footballing life a little. He might be playing more like a 31yo than a 33yo.

There was a lot of talk about our midfield being a weakness this year, however Champion Data made the point that when Danger came back in we became the #1 team for scoring from stoppage in the AFL. That doesn't sound like midfield weakness to me. Add in Smith and potentially a fit Guthrie, plus another preseason into Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, Knevitt, Clohesy and others, and I think we're in very solid shape.

The fact that we were good when Danger came back in raises the most important issue for me though. He likely only has two seasons left, at most, and he won't play either season in full. So we need to be planning NOW for post-Danger.

We need a big, powerful, contested ball beast. Think Danger, Fyfe, Cripps, LDU, Tom Green. That will be our biggest hole very soon, when we can no longer rely on Danger to fill it.

The problem is that as solid as our midfield lineup looks, there is no obvious replacement for him. He was the best power mid in the game a few years ago, and right now is still formidable for the 12-15 games we can get him on the park. But I don't see any of our other mids being the type to fill that role for us - they're either small scrappers (Atkins, Clark, Clohesy) or runners (Holmes, Smith, Guthrie).

I suspect this was the reason we drafted George Stevens last year, because he looks to be that type, but by all accounts he hardly set the world on fire in the VFL so his future must be questionable. Bruhn often tries to play like a bull, but he's just not big enough to pull it off consistently IMO. Holmes is building impressive strength in his core, but again I don't see him playing the bull role - he's a metres gained type of player. Knevitt has height, but doesn't have the bulk or core strength.

So whatever draft capital we end up with this year, that type of player would be my priority.

I like big George as a person. He seems like a natural leader. Good kick too. I think he'll be too slow for senior footy though

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Start with the prelim team. Nobody from that team is leaving by the sounds of it.

Then you've got Smith, SDK, Guthrie and O'Connor as proven AFL level players. Possibly Jack Martin if he comes too.

On top of that Clark, Clohesy, Conway, O'Sullivan and Knevitt all played this year and will be a year older next year.

So that's 27-28 with AFL finals experience and 5 developing kids with AFL experience. That's more experience than we started this year with and doesn't look like a team crying out for more depth.

Yes and no.
I do think that our depth at the bottom 6 of our 22-or the players ranked say 16-25 on our list is pretty good compared to some other teams and the port game showed that with how terrible their bottom 6 was compared to ours. But our top end talent isn't as good as some teams and it's a real question mark as to whether the players coming through will be at that level or just decent role players. There's some like sdk who to me is an A grader who has had a down year, Henry and Dempsey who I think will be very very good that I'm confident in. But a lot of the others are question marks.

The other issue we have is list balance.
So for eg we have an oversupply of small and medium forwards. But we lack kpf coming through and we lack top end mids. This is why it shows so much when danger isn't there. Now we are probably hoping Smith will fill that hole but a) he's been down in form since 2021 and b) we probably need 3 or 4 mids like that not 1.
We also lack small defenders (which is the only reason to keep bews) and we have issues with key backs and in the ruck (unless you are much more confident on Conway's fitness than most people).

So while the list is good it's not necessarily a balanced list-which is not unexpected when a lot of older elite players go-but we are going to have to hit the FA market hard in the next 2 years and draft well to fill some of those gaps.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

trick is how do we get more late picks this year other than trading future picks.

It probably won't matter bc our 5th 6th 7th rounders will come in once everyone else passes and we can use them in the 60s at the end (remember this is how we got Lawson and Wiltshire at the back end last year). But I agree it would be nice to have more picks.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Lol. Settle down.

We're trying to get Martin and the Irish guy. We've offered Bews, Stanley and Duncan contracts for next season. That's not a future event that's happening right now.

If we thought really wanted to go large in this draft we wouldn't be doing all those things.

Maybe we end up taking more picks because Duncan retires or Martin rejects us but clearly that's not the current aim.

Bews has more to do with our non small back options and Stanley has more to do with Conway being injured again than anything to do with how many picks we want (ie if it wasn't Stanley you'd need to bring in another ruck anyway so it wouldn't create a list spot).
Duncan is an interesting one if he goes on.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If we get injuries to any of Cameron, Neale or Ollie Henry who plays forward - Jack Henry or maybe SDK? We have a lot more coverage down back with SDK, Blicavs, Jack Henry, Kolo, Stewart, Zach Guthrie, Humphries, Bews plus COS developing. Easy to make a case for 1 or 2 of these moving to another role.

With Rohan retiring there is no coverage for the medium marking forward role. It is Ollie Henry or bust.

I would say O'Sullivan plays back (if ready) and Jack Henry goes forward unless we go for a smaller setup and maximise our quality smalls.

 

[year of the cat]

Yes and no.
I do think that our depth at the bottom 6 of our 22-or the players ranked say 16-25 on our list is pretty good compared to some other teams and the port game showed that with how terrible their bottom 6 was compared to ours. But our top end talent isn't as good as some teams and it's a real question mark as to whether the players coming through will be at that level or just decent role players. There's some like sdk who to me is an A grader who has had a down year, Henry and Dempsey who I think will be very very good that I'm confident in. But a lot of the others are question marks.

The other issue we have is list balance.
So for eg we have an oversupply of small and medium forwards. But we lack kpf coming through and we lack top end mids. This is why it shows so much when danger isn't there. Now we are probably hoping Smith will fill that hole but a) he's been down in form since 2021 and b) we probably need 3 or 4 mids like that not 1.
We also lack small defenders (which is the only reason to keep bews) and we have issues with key backs and in the ruck (unless you are much more confident on Conway's fitness than most people).

So while the list is good it's not necessarily a balanced list-which is not unexpected when a lot of older elite players go-but we are going to have to hit the FA market hard in the next 2 years and draft well to fill some of those gaps.

At the end of the day it’s pretty simple. We need to find another couple of elite midfielders.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

At the end of the day it’s pretty simple. We need to find another couple of elite midfielders.

No doubt-i mean we need a small defender and I think we will need a ruck too but history says you can get them cheapish on the trade market.
In terms of what will be pricey (in draft or trade) we really need a couple of elite mids and cadman. Getting them will be the hard part.

 

[year of the cat]

No doubt-i mean we need a small defender and I think we will need a ruck too but history says you can get them cheapish on the trade market.
In terms of what will be pricey (in draft or trade) we really need a couple of elite mids and cadman. Getting them will be the hard part.

We do but they are comparatively easy to find. Bringing another Selwood and Dangerfield into our list will be the task.

 

[longtimecat]

I would like to see Patrick HUGHES, given a rookie spot. I think his body strength and his game style could transfer to AFL if he was given a year or two in the system.

 

[Catsace]

If we delisted Foster, and Tomahawk is retired. Makes me think we will go for O Lord.

I still think he is a flash in the pan type and won't make it, but I suppose we will need ready made depth or a young kid and will only have dud late draft picks... So I suppose it's probably best on offer atm with our trade/draft capital.

We need more Ollies, and is he not a grandson or distant relative of one of the Lord twins of the 60's? He belongs to Geelong....although I feel he's a bit Ollie Henry-esque.

 

[supahoops]

At the end of the day it’s pretty simple. We need to find another couple of elite midfielders.

This in a nutshell. Smith will help. Holmes should be. Miers, Dempsey and Humphries should all look to become genuine mids as they have the tools to step up to that.

 

[year of the cat]

This in a nutshell. Smith will help. Holmes should be. Miers, Dempsey and Humphries should all look to become genuine mids as they have the tools to step up to that.

Need a couple more than those names I reckon. Dont think Bruhn will be an A grader but useful nevertheless. Clark maybe. Maybe not.

I think it’s likely they aren’t in our club atm. Will require some elite talent ID and development or otherwise some nifty trade work.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Duncan is an interesting one if he goes on.

Duncan is done.
Lucky to play a few games this year IMO.
Lost his pace and inturn lost his time with ball in hand inturn his disposal/decision making was poor at times.
He'll get his 2 or 3 games??... His 300 and then cya later alligator.
The club has done the right thing here.
Allows us to upgrade someone when he retires mid season or add a pick in the midseason draft.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Need a couple more than those names I reckon. Dont think Bruhn will be an A grader but useful nevertheless. Clark maybe. Maybe not.

I think it’s likely they aren’t in our club atm. Will require some elite talent ID and development or otherwise some nifty trade work.

We need three of them IMO. Two isn't enough, and four is too many.

There's just not enough actual on-ball time available for it to work with four elite mids, when it's highly likely that none of them run both ways, or apply defensive pressure around stoppages or in transition.

It throws your structure and system out of whack, and there's always the likely possibility that salary cap issues, and/or players leaving for more opportunity/money eventuates.

On the contrary, two isn't enough. Unless you've got a generational type like Martin, it's probably the difference between being a prelim side and a premiership side.

We expect Holmes is one, and we hope Smith is the other.

Brayshaw, Butters, or LDU would round that trio out perfectly IMO.

Leaves Bruhn, Clark, & potentially Bowes to do more of the grunt and defensive work, and leaves Dempsey to do his thing on the outside withing the pressure of needing to become an inside mid immediately.

The Swans & Port would be a good model for us.

Warner, Gulden, & Heeney, with the defensive grunt work from Rowbottom.

Rozee, Butters, & Horne-Francis, with the defensive grunt work from Drew.

Holmes/Smith could be our Warner/Gulden, or Rozee/Butters, but we need to find our Heeney/JHF to round it out, and the easiest way for us to do that is through a trade.

Drew/Rowbottom types are easier to find, and you could argue Bruhn & Clark are already capable of those roles it they have elite talent ahead of them.

If we're not going to be able to draft them, then we just have to be going hard at LDU, Brayshaw, Callaghan, or Butters.

Do that on top of Smith, and we're just about there.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

No, Hinkley29 is correct. No such thing as a free hit.

Lawson Humphries is Exhibit A here, and Ollie Dempsey is Exhibit B. We basically bought ourselves two nothing picks at the end of the draft, and used them on two smokies in Wiltshire and Humphries. One of them has clearly worked out thus far.

Then there's the question of spots in the 22. If Martin had been here and fit at the start of this year, I have no doubt that Ollie Dempsey wouldn't have gotten the same opportunities, nor Mannagh to be honest.

List places and AFL games are limited commodities, you can't give one without taking something away.

I still say mine is bigger!

 

[year of the cat]

We need three of them IMO. Two isn't enough, and four is too many.

There's just not enough actual on-ball time available for it to work with four elite mids, when it's highly likely that none of them run both ways, or apply defensive pressure around stoppages or in transition.

It throws your structure and system out of whack, and there's always the likely possibility that salary cap issues, and/or players leaving for more opportunity/money eventuates.

On the contrary, two isn't enough. Unless you've got a generational type like Martin, it's probably the difference between being a prelim side and a premiership side.

We expect Holmes is one, and we hope Smith is the other.

Brayshaw, Butters, or LDU would round that trio out perfectly IMO.

Leaves Bruhn, Clark, & potentially Bowes to do more of the grunt and defensive work, and leaves Dempsey to do his thing on the outside withing the pressure of needing to become an inside mid immediately.

The Swans & Port would be a good model for us.

Warner, Gulden, & Heeney, with the defensive grunt work from Rowbottom.

Rozee, Butters, & Horne-Francis, with the defensive grunt work from Drew.

Holmes/Smith could be our Warner/Gulden, or Rozee/Butters, but we need to find our Heeney/JHF to round it out, and the easiest way for us to do that is through a trade.

Drew/Rowbottom types are easier to find, and you could argue Bruhn & Clark are already capable of those roles it they have elite talent ahead of them.

If we're not going to be able to draft them, then we just have to be going hard at LDU, Brayshaw, Callaghan, or Butters.

Do that on top of Smith, and we're just about there.

Fair call. We are all assuming of course that Smith gets back to being an A grader. Hopefully that’s true. Coming off an ACL, I don’t think we should have lofty expectations for ‘25.

If he does, AND Danger remains healthy AND Holmes’ game continues to develop we could be very good next year. All other things being equal.

But looking forward there will need to be at least one other A grade mid sourced one way or another.

 

[Max Rooke]

The big reason why George Stevens didn't set the VFL on fire is most likely he didn't play in his prefer position in the midfield.. Lets wait and see how he plays when he gets his chance playing there.

Probably why they delisted Hardie. Once they decided he wasn’t going to make the AFL team then him racking up 30+ possessions in the VFL is potentially counter productive to development of Stevens, Clark etc who need more experience winning the ball cleanly out of stoppages.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Fair call. We are all assuming of course that Smith gets back to being an A grader. Hopefully that’s true. Coming off an ACL, I don’t think we should have lofty expectations for ‘25.

If he does, AND Danger remains healthy AND Holmes’ game continues to develop we could be very good next year. All other things being equal.

But looking forward there will need to be at least one other A grade mid sourced one way or another.

Agree, my premise is more talking about 2026 onwards.

- Smith has had a year under his belt to get his bearings back.

- We've brought in one of Butters, Callaghan, LDU, or Brayshaw.

- Conway, Bruhn, Holmes, & Dempsey are another couple of years older.

Just as an example, if we're lining up in round one 2026 with something like this, then we could be in for something special.

C: Dempsey - Smith - Holmes
FO: Conway - Butters - Bruhn

Bench/second rotation: Clark, Bowes, Mullin.

Providing players keep developing how we expect, and Smith keeps his trajectory pre-knee, that's plenty IMO.

In that scenario, we're not expecting anything ridiculous out of Bruhn or Clark, and can just let them develop at a steady rate.

At best, they're 4th/5th on the rotation, and can shine with three elite midfielders ahead of them in the Joel Corey, Willem Drew, James Rowbottom mold.

Just feels like the way forward for mine, particularly if we're finally lucky enough to get someone like LDU/Brayshaw as a genuine free agent.

We need a balance. People love the idea of four elite midfielders on paper, but the execution rarely (if ever) lives up to the fantasy.

Three, with a balance of defensive players in the side is the perfect mix.

 

[cats_09]

Good to see Bulldogs fans still in denial

They aren't happy with a Herald Sun article from today and have decided, "**** Bailey", the club shouldn't even bother with a trade and just walk him to the PSD where he can play for the Eagles or Richmond, especially as whatever pick Geelong offers won't be worth accepting

They seriously don't get that he nominate for the ND and not the PSD. Plus, if the club took that approach and decided to not even entertain a trade, both the AFL & AFLPA would step in to ensure that Smith isn't left in limbo due to his original club cracking the sads

 

[Cursed Cat]

This is a good call.

Assuming Smith gets over to us, I'm pretty comfortable with where our list is going into next year already. If C Guthrie can get his body right, even better, and if he does I think the couple of years he's had off could even extend his footballing life a little. He might be playing more like a 31yo than a 33yo.

There was a lot of talk about our midfield being a weakness this year, however Champion Data made the point that when Danger came back in we became the #1 team for scoring from stoppage in the AFL. That doesn't sound like midfield weakness to me. Add in Smith and potentially a fit Guthrie, plus another preseason into Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, Knevitt, Clohesy and others, and I think we're in very solid shape.

The fact that we were good when Danger came back in raises the most important issue for me though. He likely only has two seasons left, at most, and he won't play either season in full. So we need to be planning NOW for post-Danger.

We need a big, powerful, contested ball beast. Think Danger, Fyfe, Cripps, LDU, Tom Green. That will be our biggest hole very soon, when we can no longer rely on Danger to fill it.

The problem is that as solid as our midfield lineup looks, there is no obvious replacement for him. He was the best power mid in the game a few years ago, and right now is still formidable for the 12-15 games we can get him on the park. But I don't see any of our other mids being the type to fill that role for us - they're either small scrappers (Atkins, Clark, Clohesy) or runners (Holmes, Smith, Guthrie).

I suspect this was the reason we drafted George Stevens last year, because he looks to be that type, but by all accounts he hardly set the world on fire in the VFL so his future must be questionable. Bruhn often tries to play like a bull, but he's just not big enough to pull it off consistently IMO. Holmes is building impressive strength in his core, but again I don't see him playing the bull role - he's a metres gained type of player. Knevitt has height, but doesn't have the bulk or core strength.

So whatever draft capital we end up with this year, that type of player would be my priority.

Unless we can pull the proverbial rabbit out of a hat, then I reckon Jake Stringer is the closest possible ''beast'' type list addition for the 2025 season.
He'll turn 31 as the 2025 season starts. He managed 23 games this year.
I know the rap.
But if managed well both on and off the field then he's capable of making an impact at any club.
He's just as likely to go completely missing though, of course.
I'd probably have more confidence in Stringer having some sort of an impact for the club than Jack Martin, who has done sfa.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Good to see Bulldogs fans still in denial

They aren't happy with a Herald Sun article from today and have decided, "**** Bailey", the club shouldn't even bother with a trade and just walk him to the PSD where he can play for the Eagles or Richmond, especially as whatever pick Geelong offers won't be worth accepting

They seriously don't get that he nominate for the ND and not the PSD. Plus, if the club took that approach and decided to not even entertain a trade, both the AFL & AFLPA would step in to ensure that Smith isn't left in limbo due to his original club cracking the sads

I think it's the "Outgrown the club" line that's really making them lose their shit.

Reading their board a bit, they've got a colossal chip on their shoulder as it is, and stuff like that's only going to fuel it.

Bailey could have meant something completely different, but that wording was always going to be like pouring petrol on the fire with the inferiority complex they've already got.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I think it's the "Outgrown the club" line that's really making them lose their shit.

Reading their board a bit, they've got a colossal chip on their shoulder as it is, and stuff like that's only going to fuel it.

Bailey could have meant something completely different, but that wording was always going to be like pouring petrol on the fire with the inferiority complex they've already got.

I have never met a bulldogs fan irl that acts this way. It's psychotic

 

[GeelongFTW]

Fair call. We are all assuming of course that Smith gets back to being an A grader. Hopefully that’s true. Coming off an ACL, I don’t think we should have lofty expectations for ‘25.

If he does, AND Danger remains healthy AND Holmes’ game continues to develop we could be very good next year. All other things being equal.

But looking forward there will need to be at least one other A grade mid sourced one way or another.

conway + bruhn to elevate ala holmes this year