Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Free Agency Period​

The AFL introduced free agency at the end of the 2012 season, giving players another vehicle where they can transfer from one club to another. Free agency is a common form of player movement in major football and sporting codes around the world.

Free Agency Opens: Friday October 4 at 9.00am
Free Agency Closes: Friday October 11 at 5.00pm

Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period​

Trade Period Opens: Monday October 7 at 9.00am
Trade Period Closes: Wednesday October 16 at 7.30pm

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Nobody ever thought a team would pay a top 10 pick for a player to play somewhere else.

$600k isn't that crazy.

Collingwood paid $300k of Treloar's salary starting in 2021. The equivalent today would be closer to $500k with the salary cap jump. And Oliver's contract is much worse than Treloar's.

Collingwood paid 1.5 million eg 300pa for 5yrs.
If we only pay Clayton 700k melb are paying 600pa x 6 yrs 3.6mil which is an extra 2mil.

If they are going to pay that they may as well keep him I don't see it happening.
1.5 is realistic but much more gets iffy.

 

[Mangy Carl]

A fit and happy Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

is EXACTLY what Geelong needs.

He is the type of midfielder we have been missing for a while, a pure clearance player with amazing vision and creative hands.

Imagine Oliver releasing the over the shoulder, lookaway handball to a running Danger, Smith, Holmes or Bruhn steaming forward out of the middle.

Only question is, how do we trade in both Smith and Oliver?

 

[Lana]

I think there's no question we could afford his salary. But I think the question is more, do we think we're getting maximum value out of using ~$8mil of cap space in that way? Assuming he's on 1.3 x 6years, but that figure has also been quoted as high as $10mill total and as low as $6mil.

Even if our out of pocket would be closer to $5.5mil (900k x 6y) if we get Melbourne to chip in, we could still potentially get a very good, but lower risk option, with that money next year.

If you have cap space it can be difficult to justify filling it, the market just isn't that fluid. North had that warchest for a few years and went from Martin to Gaff to Polec. St Kilda have one now, tried Stengle, tried Leek Aleer failed, looks like they're getting Macrae.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Only question is, how do we trade in both Smith and Oliver?

Smith will be our first round this year.

Oliver is complicated. Given his six-year contract, Melb could end negotiations anytime and tell Oliver, "Too bad you're staying." However, if Melb wants to offload his contract from their salary cap, they can't expect to get what he may be worth in picks. They'll have to be prepared for a second-round pick, IMO. Some have said we could give them a FR1. But I suspect this one won't get any results until the last day.

 

[Turbocat]

Melbourne aren't going to pay 600k a year for him to play somewhere else though that won't happen. 300 maybe. So unless the contract can be altered with afl approval I'm not sure how it gets done. But he clearly wants to come.

One would suspect that some sort of discussion along those likes would have been held with Hocking cause I agree … not only 600 but a 600 that is adjusted and aligned to TPP.

….. We run the club this way ..so that all that are here can have enough talent around them that they can strive to be as successful as possible … so we rate you but we would need to talk about your contract. If thats not tonyour liking ..then fine… we wish you all the best. However if you are will to move forward within a Geelong paradigm we would love to bring you in ..and let you play alongside Danger, Jez ..

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Oliver (as is being reported) 100% now wants to move to Geelong. His manager has informed the club and also informed Melbourne of their clients wishes to seek a trade.

And Geelong think they can get a deal done on "favourable" terms. This no doubt includes Melbourne paying a reasonable portion of Oliver's remaining contract. I think $700-$800k pa is around the level Geelong are prepared to carry moving forward, and that's well and truly something the club can carry within the cap.

More information will come to light in the next few days but I think Cal Twomey is on the money ........."this is now a problem of Melbourne's doing". We are fast approaching the stage of "no turning back" for Melbourne and I think the player will get his wishes.

That amount is acceptable, I think.

Brodie Grundy’s, seven year contract, signed at Collingwood in 2020 – was worth $900,000 a season. Of that figure, it is understood that Melbourne last year + now Sydney only needed to contribute $600,000 annually, with the Magpies picking up the rest of the tab for the life of the deal. Demons received pick 46 in the 2023 Draft, alongside a future second-round selection in return.

How will Oliver’s trade compare?

 

[foxdog50]

If the contract is 9mil I can't see us paying more than 5.5-6 Max so that's still 3 mil to sort out and I can't see Melbourne paying that much. 1.5 I reckon they will do but not 3.
So he still has to take a paycut or something creative needs to be done with the afl to let him alter the deal.

And this is the question? If we pay a 1st round pick, does that mean we Melbourne will pay 200-400 g a season?
If we cop up only a 2nd round pick does that mean we will pay all of his salary? It's such a unknown

 

[#6 Thorp #7 Selwood LOL]

Starting to get worried we will only be able to offer Harley $1.8m a year. Guess we can always rework Bont and Butters' contracts when the time comes to fit him in on $2m.

All good guys just realised we'll have Lachie Neale coming off the books in 2027 so will be no dramas.

 

[moond0g]

If you have cap space it can be difficult to justify filling it, the market just isn't that fluid. North had that warchest for a few years and went from Martin to Gaff to Polec. St Kilda have one now, tried Stengle, tried Leek Aleer failed, looks like they're getting Macrae.

Yeah that's a fair point. It's certainly not as simple as saying let's spend the money or Butters or Brayshaw next year instead, because who knows if we can get them here. There's an element of having to capitalise when an opportunity presents itself, as it looks like it has here. But we also have a much better record of attracting talent that North and St Kilda. So while I don't think anyone could guarantee any particular player over the next few years, I think we'd have an ok chance of attracting someone that fits that bill.

 

[Commando]

At the end of the day as crazy as it sounds Melbourne may very well be prepared to pay up to 600k a year to offload him

Otherwise they are paying 1.3 mil to keep him

 

[Tony Barber]

What utter nonsense. What examples are there of this compared with what we’ve paid over the years for Cameron, Dangerfield, Tuohy, Henderson etc.

I think his use of the word 'hard' was wrong.
But there's no way that we're easy to deal with. In pretty much every trade we've had over the last decade no one has really been upset here.

So I'd suggest that we do refuse to be bent over.
The Cameron deal....... maybe we were. But we obviously wanted him no matter what.

 

[Grimoz]

Settle down. You're trying to get offended by nothing. He was absolutely fine and came across as very respectful and thankful to the club.

All he said was that when he thought he might be close they went another way by moving guys like Stewart and Holmes into midfield. Which is obviously true. He didn't even imply he thought he was unlucky and didn't sound at all bitter about it.

Not offended at all, wish him luck, the fact is he was nowhere near it and anyone who watched VFL would know that, anyway sorry if i hurt your feelings wasnt my intentions

 

[bombersboy]

After enough exposure where a player was drafted becomes irrelevant, that draft pick is probably the only thing giving him market value. I felt that he wasn't a typical top 10 pick, I think he lacks a few attributes that are almost pre-requisites to being a star. If allowed I think his likely trajectory could be similar as Parfitt, in that he becomes a serviceable but otherwise undamaging midfielder.

Dominate is a strong word but Imo Clohesy's VFL form was better then Clarks. But the bias of not squandering a top 10 pick would in a line ball call give the advantage of getting AFL game time to one over the other. I fell that in a blind test it would be hard to pick them apart. But in a trade situation that bias works in our favour. Clohesy isn't worth anything at the trade table.

Some people may have been saying the same thing about Joel Selwood 2 years in. He is far more direct than Parfitt and far more inclined to take the first option.

 

[Grimoz]

Lets be honest Melbourne arent going to make him stay, they have burnt that bridge now, otherwise they risk him being unhappy for the next 6 years or worse hurting himself, they wont want that, the place is already a dumpster fire they need this to douse some of those flames especially those started by Petracca

 

[#6 Thorp #7 Selwood LOL]

Some people may have been saying the same thing about Joel Selwood 2 years in.

I have no dog in this fight but they absolutely were not saying that.

 

[iameviljez]

A fit and happy Clayton Oliver is EXACTLY what Geelong needs.

They are two massive, massive, massive caveats.

 

[cats_09]

cats_09 reaching for the ban hammer

Maybe I need to get a new guernsey and not put a number on the back of it, because since wearing the #10 starting in 2017, games played by the respective Geelong player is 47 of a possible 192

 

[bombersboy]

What I've been told about SDK by a person with a Carlton connection.

- He will only leave to go to Carlton and nobody else.
- has been sold the centre half back permanent position dream

• won't ask for a trade as he has seen what happened with Kelly and Ratagolea
• won't sign a contract extension
• family weren't impressed that he was made to play injured this year
• Geelong wants pick 11 and FR1 from Carlton who won't do that deal.
• Carlton want to include players in the trade, Pittonet, Young and Kennedy were offered
• Carlton also trying to offload Cerra to Melbourne so that may help in the Oliver chase.

I think TDK played injured at Carlton probably more times than SDK. If a player does not want to play because they think they are to badly injured then I do not think a club will make them plus Geelong's policy for a few years has been to be conservative and play the long game and make sure players are right for finals rather than taking chances.

 

[bombersboy]

I'm not sure if your source is correct or not but I know that Geelong was chasing a defender a month or 2 back. I was also told (from a different source) they had interest in Joshua Draper from Fremantle and were prepared to make a big offer.

I thought it was strange we were asking about him but it could tie in with what's happening behind the scenes with SDK.

Could also be they have other plans for SDK or don't believe COS will make it.

 

[cats_09]

I've heard them say 3 million many times in the media.

It's a $3 million increase in TPP over the course of the CBA, which is what the media is reporting

The following isn't my words, it's taken from an article discussing the TPP CBA increase, listing but increase for each season through to 2027 - this isn't guess work, it's literally what the salary cap will be next year

The total player payments will jump from $15,022,778 in 2023 to $15,788,222 this year, before rising to $17.76m in 2025, $18.29m in 2026 and $18.44m in 2027.

 

[My Tilly]

Christ I really hope this doesn't happen.

If he doesn't stop being an unfit, unprofessional dickhead, then we have paid a big price for him - and will have him stuck on the books for a very long time.

This isn't like Jack Steven where we gave up an unused pick and could cut him short by six months.

Likewise, I'm worried.

If it did backfire, there's a few years of unwanted attention surrounding the club during the development years of our younger brigade.

Then again, maybe a new environment is what Oliver needs. Geelong is just a different life compared to the city and surrounding suburbs of Melbourne.

 

[fpm84]

Add David Schwartz to the list of ex-Demons who think Oliver will leave: https://www.3aw.com.au/devastating-...eculation-surrounding-clayton-olivers-future/

 

[supahoops]

Reidy just extended. He ain't coming

First names please, I’m driving

 

[4quarter_cat]

Same reason if Lukosius chose the Crows I'd call up Darcy Fogarty for a chat next year

Lucindale(where fog is from) is definitely closer to Adelaide. CEEBs putting it in Google Maps but at a guess I'd say the equation flips and Lucindale is about 45 minutes closer to AO than KP.

 

[Willo_]

I know where a good country lad could get a farm. There is good precedent.

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