Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 3

[cats_09]

Here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

Cheers to Lore for their hard work in setting this up, and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft - and please practice patience grasshoppers if it's not updated in the immediate aftermath of completed trade





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Draft and Trade Period Key Dates​

Oct 17 to Nov 8: Pick swap window
Nov 1 to Nov 8: Delisted free agency period
Nov 20-21: Telstra AFL Draft
Nov 22: Telstra Pre-Season Draft and Rookie Draft

 

[moond0g]

They only did that because Port are stupid morons (as evidenced by trading a r1 to get sav last year and multiple picks including a r2 for soldo). I wouldn't bank on that every year.

They didn’t trade a first rounder for Esava though.

 

[Warhorse]

How is everyone so sure it's a good draft? 2024?

1. In a weak draft, prospects look like good prospects every second week, beating poor players.

2. In an average draft the best stand out and are easy to find.

3. In a strong deep draft with many good prospects the best don't stand out. Being good one week and beaten by a good opponent next week.

In fact, 1 and 3 look a bit similar.

It's a deep draft and some good players will be found late. Very even first round. I thought the 1st round was good but seeing the way teams have traded first round picks for some average players I'm beginning to believe it might be an average draft

 

[Max Rooke]

Ideally yes but no team in the mid teens will take our FR1 given the supposed depth/strength of this draft. Teams with only 1 R1 pick this year would be very unlikely to want to trade out of it. They know we’ll likely be contending again with the acquisition of Bailey Smith and the natural improvement in our under 23s.

If Richmond’s 18 drops to 21ish on the night after bids then I’d say we’d be eyeing that pick.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

He's not that far off. Because clubs won't back us to slide (I think we will but they won't on history) the absolute Max we would get for our fr1 is 15/16 from gws (even that's optimistic). More likely 18 20 or 23 (rich) or 19 or 22 (syd). But if we trade back in live we are trading for a specific player (as we did with holmes) not a pick number so it doesn't matter so much.

23 is probably about 5-6 picks off where I’d project us at best. very risky punt. You would really want to get it right and be confident with the early second rounder being superior to who would be around your first in 2025

 

[Footy Smarts]

The number we trade a future first for is irrelevant. All that matters is the player we're targeting and whether we rate them higher than our future first.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

It's a deep draft and some good players will be found late. Very even first round. I thought the 1st round was good but seeing the way teams have traded first round picks for some average players I'm beginning to believe it might be an average draft

Quantity doesn’t equal quality is the way to look at it.

this draft is supposed to be good due to its depth.

But does having a first round of mostly B graders mean it’s a “strong draft?” Compared to a draft where the first round has some A graders and then a couple of misses??

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

What a double edged sword. Only four players in the league are worth that - Darcy, Reid, Cadman and Daicos.

Is Cadman actually worth two firsts ?

 

[Footy Smarts]

What a double edged sword. Only four players in the league are worth that - Darcy, Reid, Cadman and Daicos.

I would give up 2 late firsts for a whole bunch more than that.

 

[Turbocat]

23 for our future first?? No way Jose.

Mid teens more likely

Id think it just depends of it right player is there ..like with MaxH…. 23 is still R1. If he is the right player then id not put it past them for a pick in the 20’s

 

[Turbocat]

The number we trade a future first for is irrelevant. All that matters is the player we're targeting and whether we rate them higher than our future first.

Exactly…. The concept of worth in trades for pick numbers is rubbery as it depends on the quality of the draft and who is available….

Id not put it past us that if the the right player is not there then we wait for the next group ..perhaps we trade our Fr2 ...

 

[Turbocat]

What a double edged sword. Only four players in the league are worth that - Darcy, Reid, Cadman and Daicos.

I think we are about to see the inflationary affect of adding an extra year of futures being available…. Id imagine if that rule had been in then several trades in the last couple of years might have JHF for example …North would have wanted that for sure..

Be interesting what clubs ask for if someone like Rainer or LDU are traded for.

 

[iameviljez]

Is Cadman actually worth two firsts ?

Name a better u21 tall forward whose name isn't Darcy.

 

[Kitcat]

It does not take long to contend- look at Hawthorn- WCE could contend in 2026. Contend = finish top 8?

That is not the point I am making. To make it easier for you, just assume for the sake of my question that WC finish near the bottom again. Of course, if they finish near or in the 8, it is a different situation, one that is irrelevant to my question.

 

[Kitcat]

They might not think he will want to leave.

We are treating it as almost a fair accompli; I am not so sure.

I am not treating it as such. That is why I set the question with WC believing themselves that he didn't want to stay, based on conversations with him and observation of him etc. If Reid wants to stay, then obviously WC are unlikely to want to trade him, and my question doesn't arise.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The number we trade a future first for is irrelevant. All that matters is the player we're targeting and whether we rate them higher than our future first.

I totally agree but it is a big risk if you end up giving up a future top 5 or 10 pick which we have seen clubs like Collingwood botch before.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

What a double edged sword. Only four players in the league are worth that - Darcy, Reid, Cadman and Daicos.

Expectation inflation will destroy clubs

 

[Gunf]

Expectation inflation will destroy clubs

Agreed the moment future trading opens up teams will start paying 2 firsts instead of 1 or 3 instead of 2 etc

 

[FishGutz]

I just think it's naive to expect he gets that far when st kilda have his brother (and need mids) and Richmond have so many picks they can risk and need a player of that type. And he's also a Jason Taylor type player. And I wouldn't discount freo as they take vic metro players.

Where I do believe you is I can see us rating him and if he's there at gws pick I can see us offering a future 1st (again no way would I risk it with an ageing list but I can see the club would) for 15 (and gws might sell) but I think he's gone well before then (and no way can we sell into the top 10).

Maybe you’ll be right but I think the issue with Saints is they’re looking for impact immediately. It’s a tough sell to their fans to constantly be rebuilding and Hotton will need nurturing next year. Full rehab and no preseason.. will be a good watch where he goes. Because in terms of talent he’s a freak.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[The rabbi]

Is anyone prepared to speculate on how we will fill the available spots on the list with picks 45, 57, 75?

 

[Hamingja]

It's a deep draft and some good players will be found late. Very even first round. I thought the 1st round was good but seeing the way teams have traded first round picks for some average players I'm beginning to believe it might be an average draft

Flicking through the profiles there seems to be an absolute boat load of ~180cm mids. Probably working on 5 Lachie Fogarty's to a Lachie Neale.

 

[Turbocat]

If West Coast believe Reid will want to leave at the end of his 3 years, wouldn’t they be better off trading him next year when still under contract as they would get more and they would be able to draft/trade players a year earlier?
If they were contending, it would be different but they are nowhere near it.

With a player like Reid …I cant see one getting too much of a discount based on him being OOC. He will want to go to a club higher on the ladder … and one will not be able to use the threat of the draft with him … as any club would draft him. He would still go P1 in this years draft. The price for him will be scorching and if its us WC will be after an absolute obvious win.

 

[Hamingja]

Is anyone prepared to speculate on how we will fill the available spots on the list with picks 45, 57, 75?

View attachment 2148179

Trade a future pick - may not necessarily be R1, might be R2 or R3 if someone is still on the board they like and another club wants to tap out
State league player
Underexposed private school kid that has only taken up footy recently because they represented Australia in polo cross
Random falcon that wasn't expected to get drafted

 

[Turbocat]

Woodcock is best mates with Baz.

Wouldn't surprise me if Smith puts in a good word.

Is Woodcock a bit like Stengle ..

 

[Turbocat]

I just think it's naive to expect he gets that far when st kilda have his brother (and need mids) and Richmond have so many picks they can risk and need a player of that type. And he's also a Jason Taylor type player. And I wouldn't discount freo as they take vic metro players.

Where I do believe you is I can see us rating him and if he's there at gws pick I can see us offering a future 1st (again no way would I risk it with an ageing list but I can see the club would) for 15 (and gws might sell) but I think he's gone well before then (and no way can we sell into the top 10).

What the story with his brother..is he uncontracted at StK?

 

[Turbocat]

Trade a future pick - may not necessarily be R1, might be R2 or R3 if someone is still on the board they like and another club wants to tap out
State league player
Underexposed private school kid that has only taken up footy recently because they represented Australia in polo cross
Random falcon that wasn't expected to get drafted

Seems very likely