Speculation Harley Reid [OOC 2026]

[Rich01]

This sounds similar to JHF.

The longer he waits, the more likely it is he is to request a trade home.

The first six months of McQualters time at West Coast will be telling on whether Harley is keen to stick around.

If he hasn’t signed an extension by the mid season break, I’d be thinking he’s gone.

West Coast would extract maximum collateral from him at the end of 25 rather than waiting until he’s OOC in 26.

If they get Warner and a little more for him that’s not a horrendous outcome if he doesn’t want to be there.

 

[bzparkes]

This sounds similar to JHF.

The longer he waits, the more likely it is he is to request a trade home.

The first six months of McQualters time at West Coast will be telling on whether Harley is keen to stick around.

If he hasn’t signed an extension by the mid season break, I’d be thinking he’s gone.

West Coast would extract maximum collateral from him at the end of 25 rather than waiting until he’s OOC in 26.

If they get Warner and a little more for him that’s not a horrendous outcome if he doesn’t want to be there.

Unlike JHF, Reid has a 3 year contract, not a 2 year one and whilst our coach was also moved on in Reid's first, like JHF's, WCE don't appear to have all the off-field issues North had at the time.

He also hasn't had club greats shitting on his training standards.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

How is it dumb when rebuilding to get a 20yr old former no1 pick who’s on an elite trajectory and is a sure thing not to be a bust. That’s the exact type of player north/richmond/whoever have been tanking for.

We know Essendon have 2 FRPs this year and 2 2nds thanks to some smart trading. So that’s basically 3FRP from 1 draft (after trading) with no long term repercussions.

Thats a decent package. All things considered.

….

If it happens or doesn’t I’m ambivalent. Essendon has a fair way to go in establishing itself as a competent club before I’ll think we are a destination team.

But purely on the “is it a smart trade” scale. I fail to see how it wouldn’t be

Essendons u23 list is one of the worst in the AFL. It needs fixing before you worry about Harley. I think you wont see that or do that but its still the truth. 2019-2022 draft period was a disaster for the club. 5 1st round picks and Nik Cox is the best one of the lot is not good

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

This sounds similar to JHF.

The longer he waits, the more likely it is he is to request a trade home.

The first six months of McQualters time at West Coast will be telling on whether Harley is keen to stick around.

If he hasn’t signed an extension by the mid season break, I’d be thinking he’s gone.

West Coast would extract maximum collateral from him at the end of 25 rather than waiting until he’s OOC in 26.

If they get Warner and a little more for him that’s not a horrendous outcome if he doesn’t want to be there.

Zero chance he does it mid season. It will be end of season situation. If his manager signs him up mid year then he has absolutely no idea

 

[Obeanie1]

This sounds similar to JHF.

The longer he waits, the more likely it is he is to request a trade home.

The first six months of McQualters time at West Coast will be telling on whether Harley is keen to stick around.

If he hasn’t signed an extension by the mid season break, I’d be thinking he’s gone.

West Coast would extract maximum collateral from him at the end of 25 rather than waiting until he’s OOC in 26.

If they get Warner and a little more for him that’s not a horrendous outcome if he doesn’t want to be there.

Are West Coast a minnow club who has failed to reach any levels of success for decades?

Is Harley acting like JFH not doing the rehab and recovery (remember Ice Bath Gate) and being publicly shamed by teammates and the club in the media?

No. Nothing like that has occurred to date. Not even close.

So really its not anything like the JFH melodrama that played out. More likely its what you want to happen.

 

[random260]

The rumour doing the rounds right now is he's refusing to sign even a one year extension.

If he doesn't extend by the end of next season he's gone at the end of 2026 imo.

Didn't you swear he was going to do a Chris Judd?

Yes I'm specifically calling out people who said hes going to do a Judd.

My stance has been he signs and acknowledges he an Eagles for life or he's going at end of 2025

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The rumour doing the rounds right now is he's refusing to sign even a one year extension.

If he doesn't extend by the end of next season he's gone at the end of 2026 imo.

I would have thought so but I still don't think wce will trade him until his contract is up (and rightly so).

 

[amazingjoshy]

My stance has been he signs and acknowledges he an Eagles for life or he's going at end of 2025

He either gets traded at end of the year 2026 or he is Eagles for life.

No he will leave even if we improve. I said he is 100% leaving because of family and girlfriend.

I'm still not clear on your stance tbh

 

[Pistol Night]

I'm still not clear on your stance tbh

Hes got a similar stance to Oscar Pistorius there

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

I would have thought so but I still don't think wce will trade him until his contract is up (and rightly so).

The whole 2025 thing doesnt make too much sense the more I think about it. If we want Warner I dont see the point in collecting a shit ton of assets at the same time we want to do that trade. Best to limit what we have to offer less by simply offering up what we have as opposed to collecting more so Sydney can ask for more.

It will also let Eagles spend 2026 finding another player to be that player + picks to do the trade. We could try and do a Daniel Curtin + 4 1st rounders (2 from AFL and 2 from Essendon) style of deal

 

[sydney_gws]

Zero chance he does it mid season. It will be end of season situation. If his manager signs him up mid year then he has absolutely no idea

Couldn't he agree to sign a 2 year deal for 2027,2028 for say $3.2 million, but if he wants to be traded eagles let him go at end of 2026.
That way if he has serious concussion issues, he would guaranteed that 2027 2028 money.

 

[bzparkes]

Couldn't he agree to sign a 2 year deal for 2027,2028 for say $3.2 million, but if he wants to be traded eagles let him go at end of 2026.
That way if he has serious concussion issues, he would guaranteed that 2027 2028 money.

In that case, just sign a 10 year deal. Players are moving clubs with years left on their contracts anyway, these days.

 

[jdstorm]

Essendons u23 list is one of the worst in the AFL. It needs fixing before you worry about Harley. I think you wont see that or do that but its still the truth. 2019-2022 draft period was a disaster for the club. 5 1st round picks and Nik Cox is the best one of the lot is not good

The list has a bunch of issues no doubt but saying Nick Cox is the best of the bunch just frankly isn’t true.

By production it’s two (three) SSP picks in Nick Martin, Sam Durham and Hawthorns Mass Dambrosio (who we gave away for nothing)

Nick Bryan and Harry Jones (2019 talls) are also starting to look like best 22 afl standard players which helps with depth.

Replacement level players are generally availiable if you have a good recruiting team/development staff. (So a huge issue at Essendon but not something investing high picks will necessarily fix). It’s hard to get elite guys and even harder to get sure thing elite guys at 20-21 years old.

Fair value for Harley Reid is 2x top3 picks and anything Essendon gave up would be less then that.

Most top teams have 6 elite guys, and if you have 2-3 you can start to backfill via free agency/trade. So with Essendon if you give up next years draft for Reid you have Reid/Caddy/Kako from the past 3/4 drafts as potentially elite talents.

Add Martin and that’s 4 younger star level players moving forward for a decade or more all of whom are goal threats.

I get the point of avoiding consolidation trades when there’s minimal depth. However I think that provides more opportunities to find diamonds in the rough via opportunities to SSP types

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The list has a bunch of issues no doubt but saying Nick Cox is the best of the bunch just frankly isn’t true.

By production it’s two (three) SSP picks in Nick Martin, Sam Durham and Hawthorns Mass Dambrosio (who we gave away for nothing)

Nick Bryan and Harry Jones (2019 talls) are also starting to look like best 22 afl standard players which helps with depth.

Replacement level players are generally availiable if you have a good recruiting team/development staff. (So a huge issue at Essendon but not something investing high picks will necessarily fix). It’s hard to get elite guys and even harder to get sure thing elite guys at 20-21 years old.

Fair value for Harley Reid is 2x top3 picks and anything Essendon gave up would be less then that.

Most top teams have 6 elite guys, and if you have 2-3 you can start to backfill via free agency/trade. So with Essendon if you give up next years draft for Reid you have Reid/Caddy/Kako from the past 3/4 drafts as potentially elite talents.

Add Martin and that’s 4 younger star level players moving forward for a decade or more all of whom are goal threats.

I get the point of avoiding consolidation trades when there’s minimal depth. However I think that provides more opportunities to find diamonds in the rough via opportunities to SSP types

Those guys are older then 23.. I was cheeky about it

After producing above expectations we are not taking or getting a deal less then what we got pre draft. Don’t be daft

 

[jdstorm]

Those guys are older then 23.. I was cheeky about it

After producing above expectations we are not taking or getting a deal less then what we got pre draft. Don’t be daft

Fair enough. Got me there .

When it comes to that period I’m pretty hopeful/bullish about Tsatas. He’s been a ball magnet at VFL level just hasn’t had a clear run with health/the body to play inside at AFL level and doesn’t have the foot skills to play any position other then inside mid.

In terms of a deal. I think if he leaves WC you’d get a massive haul with multiple picks. I just think in terms of the certain outcome you will get a package with more uncertainty of success (multiple picks) and given average outcomes those picks will be worth slightly less then Harley.

However hit on 2 of them and you’re well in front.

I think there was also talk of Chad Warner going to you guys as part of any Reid trade

 

[bzparkes]

Fair enough. Got me there .

When it comes to that period I’m pretty hopeful/bullish about Tsatas. He’s been a ball magnet at VFL level just hasn’t had a clear run with health/the body to play inside at AFL level and doesn’t have the foot skills to play any position other then inside mid.

In terms of a deal. I think if he leaves WC you’d get a massive haul with multiple picks. I just think in terms of the certain outcome you will get a package with more uncertainty of success (multiple picks) and given average outcomes those picks will be worth slightly less then Harley.

However hit on 2 of them and you’re well in front.

I think there was also talk of Chad Warner going to you guys as part of any Reid trade

A Warner trade would have nothing to do with Reid.

 

[jdstorm]

A Warner trade would have nothing to do with Reid.

Sydney is going to want a lot for him.

A 3 team framework where it’s
WCE get Warner + ??? + picks
Swans get picks
Team 3 gets Reid

It seems a good framework of both Reid/warner want out

 

[Barrybran]

A Warner trade would have nothing to do with Reid.

Should work in our favour actually

 

[Barrybran]

Sydney is going to want a lot for him.

A 3 team framework where it’s
WCE get Warner + ??? + picks
Swans get picks
Team 3 gets Reid

It seems a good framework of both Reid/warner want out

If we were to trade Reid out there wouldn't be any point trading Warner in

 

[Wild Bill]

Because due to Dodo's incompetence, your list has a great many holes.

Throwing away a bunch of top picks for one player is inadvisable with the current state of Essendon's list

But how does a good club afford his 1.8 million salary? The only teams that could afford him are those with big salary caps due to having a crap list.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The whole 2025 thing doesnt make too much sense the more I think about it. If we want Warner I dont see the point in collecting a shit ton of assets at the same time we want to do that trade. Best to limit what we have to offer less by simply offering up what we have as opposed to collecting more so Sydney can ask for more.

It will also let Eagles spend 2026 finding another player to be that player + picks to do the trade. We could try and do a Daniel Curtin + 4 1st rounders (2 from AFL and 2 from Essendon) style of deal

I agree with that and I think part of why they will let it run until 2026 is because of Warner.

 

[Pistol Night]

But how does a good club afford his 1.8 million salary? The only teams that could afford him are those with big salary caps due to having a crap list.

Geelong 400k through the books. Nice property portfolio and a small Cotton On ambassador role comprising 60% of his income

 

[Pure_Ownage]

But how does a good club afford his 1.8 million salary? The only teams that could afford him are those with big salary caps due to having a crap list.

With the cap going up I think a fair few teams could afford it particularly if they are prepared to shed some depth players. For example I think Geelong with all our retirements could afford close to do that-but culturally I don't see us being willing to offer that much even though technically we can and I think some vic clubs will be the same.

 

[bzparkes]

Sydney is going to want a lot for him.

A 3 team framework where it’s
WCE get Warner + ??? + picks
Swans get picks
Team 3 gets Reid

It seems a good framework of both Reid/warner want out

We already have the capital to get Warner without Reid.

 

[bzparkes]

But how does a good club afford his 1.8 million salary? The only teams that could afford him are those with big salary caps due to having a crap list.

And those clubs will stay crap due to the trade capital needed to pull him from WCE.

I mean, if he wants to go and they want to put themselves out of the top end of the next 2 drafts, be my guest.

Trading in top end talent when you've already got too many list holes as it is is stupidity. A club should just wait for free agency in that case, as trading out a ton of capital for a player like Reid when you're already miles off it would be a terrible mistake.