Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[dermott]

Bring back Jeff if we miss

/jk

Too old, too slow. Not to mention too divisive.

 

[Sixpence]

Can? Yes.

Will? Day.

I'm expecting big things from Can Yes this year!

 

[bigmaxi]

It's the offseason, there's lots to ponder.

Can Hawthorn make the jump and contend for finals in 2024?

If you can't be optimistic about your side in the off-season you're likely following an absolutely trash side, so I'm going to present the case for, in part.
I know others will present the case against, likely highlighting that we need to go passed others, that development and improvement isn't always linear, what if injuries etc.

But let's focus on what we know and what went right in 2023.

Remember when we “gutted the midfield” and "will struggle to win 3 games"? Well what actually happened was that we went from the worst clearance side in the comp to amongst the best in the course of half a season with the new group.
By the end of 2023 this new Hawthorn midfield, the youngest in the comp, averaged more Centre Clearances per game than every side in the comp, bar the top 4 finishing Power and Lions sides.

Now while we took a good third of the season to take advantage of the new midfields performances at the clearances(no doubt hindered by the loss of Lewis over that time, Gunston heading North and McEvoy retiring), according to Rob McCartney on Hawks Insiders from Round 10, Hawthorn were 9th in the comp for Quarters won. During that period Hawthorn played 9 games against the eventual finalists, knocked off the Dogs and lost to the Tigers in the final moments of the game.
We did all this with what could often be described as a makeshift or clumsy forward line, and will head into 2024 with 3 additions via trade, of which all are capable of at least 20 goals each(some might suggest that Chol and Ginnivan are more than capable of double that).

In the Fig.1 overview below you can see that despite our slow start the year these young Hawks defeated their fair share of top 8 sides, and lost as many close ones as sides that were tipped to play finals.
It's not beyond the realms that Hawthorn could've had 10 wins on the board by the end of 2023, and what makes for a strong argument that we have a good chance of rising is that we enter 2024 without trying to facilitate so much change in the most important part of the ground.

Fig.1
View attachment 1854047
(D) = draw


Remember also when “the youngsters will struggle to run out the season”? The stats below in fig.2 show that the youngsters and the side as a whole continued to push hard even against much more seasoned sides, and as I posted in the preseason thread the system with which we played with over that period is a more than fair chance to become the baseline of what our accepted output should be in 2024.
Does that mean we sit 1st in numerous CD rankings in 2024? No.
Does that mean we win the flag? No.
Does it mean we win enough games to make finals? Not necessarily.

But it does mean that while our midfield and forward half took at least 7-8 rounds to come out of the fog(and return of Lewis), we should be far more competitive from the very first bounce in 2024, and we should be more than capable of winning the majority of games against sides in the bottom 6, of which we do have quite a few, considering our 16th placed finish in 2023.

fig.2
View attachment 1854043

In short, we could have quite easily had 10 wins in 2023, despite the rebuilding of the midfield and having Fergus Greene as our key forward for a third of the year, and with that in mind for 2024 I'd be amazed if the internal benchmark for a successful season is anything less than 10 wins with so much growth to come across the list and the additions to our forward half...certainly after my quick look at the draw I think that 10 wins is entirely achievable and that puts us right in the frame to be challenging for finals should we sneak a couple of unexpected wins early in the year.


What say you?

Well articulated SYL, I’m with Sammy and the boys. They want to play finals, I want them to play finals, we all want them to play finals. Then finals it is

 

[HawthornHawk]

I think next year might be too soon for us. A lot will depend on how well our new recruits settle and whether they can have an impact. I want us to show some semblance of a plan for what our team defence will look like long term as I feel this has been lacking since Sam took over.

I'm pretty disappointed we've started our pre-season without having our coaching panel sorted. It was settled pretty late last year too from memory. We have a really tough start to the year and might not get our first win until round 6.

 

[Dewnior]

It's the offseason, there's lots to ponder.

Can Hawthorn make the jump and contend for finals in 2024?

If you can't be optimistic about your side in the off-season you're likely following an absolutely trash side, so I'm going to present the case for, in part.
I know others will present the case against, likely highlighting that we need to go passed others, that development and improvement isn't always linear, what if injuries etc.

But let's focus on what we know and what went right in 2023.

Remember when we “gutted the midfield” and "will struggle to win 3 games"? Well what actually happened was that we went from the worst clearance side in the comp to amongst the best in the course of half a season with the new group.
By the end of 2023 this new Hawthorn midfield, the youngest in the comp, averaged more Centre Clearances per game than every side in the comp, bar the top 4 finishing Power and Lions sides.

Now while we took a good third of the season to take advantage of the new midfields performances at the clearances(no doubt hindered by the loss of Lewis over that time, Gunston heading North and McEvoy retiring), according to Rob McCartney on Hawks Insiders from Round 10, Hawthorn were 9th in the comp for Quarters won. During that period Hawthorn played 9 games against the eventual finalists, knocked off the Dogs and lost to the Tigers in the final moments of the game.
We did all this with what could often be described as a makeshift or clumsy forward line, and will head into 2024 with 3 additions via trade, of which all are capable of at least 20 goals each(some might suggest that Chol and Ginnivan are more than capable of double that).

In the Fig.1 overview below you can see that despite our slow start the year these young Hawks defeated their fair share of top 8 sides, and lost as many close ones as sides that were tipped to play finals.
It's not beyond the realms that Hawthorn could've had 10 wins on the board by the end of 2023, and what makes for a strong argument that we have a good chance of rising is that we enter 2024 without trying to facilitate so much change in the most important part of the ground.

Fig.1
View attachment 1854047
(D) = draw


Remember also when “the youngsters will struggle to run out the season”? The stats below in fig.2 show that the youngsters and the side as a whole continued to push hard even against much more seasoned sides, and as I posted in the preseason thread the system with which we played with over that period is a more than fair chance to become the baseline of what our accepted output should be in 2024.
Does that mean we sit 1st in numerous CD rankings in 2024? No.
Does that mean we win the flag? No.
Does it mean we win enough games to make finals? Not necessarily.

But it does mean that while our midfield and forward half took at least 7-8 rounds to come out of the fog(and return of Lewis), we should be far more competitive from the very first bounce in 2024, and we should be more than capable of winning the majority of games against sides in the bottom 6, of which we do have quite a few, considering our 16th placed finish in 2023.

fig.2
View attachment 1854043

In short, we could have quite easily had 10 wins in 2023, despite the rebuilding of the midfield and having Fergus Greene as our key forward for a third of the year, and with that in mind for 2024 I'd be amazed if the internal benchmark for a successful season is anything less than 10 wins with so much growth to come across the list and the additions to our forward half...certainly after my quick look at the draw I think that 10 wins is entirely achievable and that puts us right in the frame to be challenging for finals should we sneak a couple of unexpected wins early in the year.


What say you?

TL;DR















But absolutely yes we can

 

[Sixpence]

We have a really tough start to the year and might not get our first win until round 6.

Or we might get it Round 1.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

As others have said, next year might be a year too soon. Yes, our best was clearly good enough. But our worst was absolutely putrid - think games against Geelong, Port, Sydney.

As pointed out in the OP, the difference between Hawthorn at the start of year and the end is night and day.

Those Champion Data stats show this quite clearly.

 

[Roddy]

Not overly fussed to be honest. If we do, that's a big, fat-arsed bonus. if not, I just want to see another year of development and improvement. We won 7 games this year, if we win 9-10 next year, I'll be relatively happy.

Push for finals in '25, flag in '27-'28.

 

[HawthornHawk]

Or we might get it Round 1.

True!

I thought we'd win that game last year though and we got absolutely annihilated

 

[grumbleguts]

All the people saying "no" need to read the thread title again more carefully.

 

[grumbleguts]

I'm expecting big things from Can Yes this year!

Yes. Can Yes West is a hell of a player. But my car was making a terrible noise the other day so I took it to a mechanic. He took out the Can Yes West CD and it's been fine ever since.

 

[cs61]

Lots of improvement: Weddle, MacKenzie, CMac, Ward, Ramsden, Mitchell.

Still improving: Day, Newcombe, Reeves, Blanck, Jiath, Meek, Nash.

At or entering their Peak: Sicily, Impey, Amon, Worpel, Hardwick, Lewis, Moore, Morrison.

Veterans: Breust, Gunston, Wingard, Frost.

Ins to help us improve:

Chol - A solid target with X Factor for high ball.

Ginnivan - Jumps in front of a lot of our small forwards, perfect age for our list, will go well with Moore and CMac (and hopefully Watson…)

D’Ambrossio - Depth at first, but when he plays, he is bringing a weapon and not being carried which is important.

Gunston - Makes us better in short term, and that experience is intangible for others.

Our young list profile is set up for massive collective evolution, even before our off season additions, and even before knowing our draft haul. The amount of young players of quality developing in the engine room with upside will make us a very hard midfield and running team to play against, with our second pre season under Burge. With the extra focus on forward line this off season, which is already improved before the draft, I would say we are only a key back off confidently saying we are a competitor in this competition.

Definitely a finals chance, if luck goes our way. The fixture hasnt been one of things to go our way, but if we make it it will be on merit.

 

[grumbleguts]

Lots of improvement: Weddle, MacKenzie, CMac, Ward, Ramsden, Mitchell.

Still improving: Day, Newcombe, Reeves, Blanck, Jiath, Meek, Nash.

At or entering their Peak: Sicily, Impey, Amon, Worpel, Hardwick, Lewis, Moore, Morrison.

Veterans: Breust, Gunston, Wingard, Frost.

Ins to help us improve:

Chol - A solid target with X Factor for high ball.

Ginnivan - Jumps in front of a lot of our small forwards, perfect age for our list, will go well with Moore and CMac (and hopefully Watson…)

D’Ambrossio - Depth at first, but when he plays, he is bringing a weapon and not being carried which is important.

Gunston - Makes us better in short term, and that experience is intangible for others.

Our young list profile is set up for massive collective evolution, even before our off season additions, and even before knowing our draft haul. The amount of young players of quality developing in the engine room with upside will make us a very hard midfield and running team to play against, with our second pre season under Burge. With the extra focus on forward line this off season, which is already improved before the draft, I would say we are only a key back off confidently saying we are a competitor in this competition.

Definitely a finals chance, if luck goes our way. The fixture hasnt been one of things to go our way, but if we make it it will be on merit.

I think of the big improvements, MacKenzie will leap from where he is. Every time he played at Box Hill, there was a "this guy is too good for this level" feeling.

 

[SSSSSS]

As pointed out in the OP, the difference between Hawthorn at the start of year and the end is night and day.

Those Champion Data stats show this quite clearly.

We're notoriously slow starters though.

Even during our 3peat era we seemed to work into the season a lot better than most teams.

 

[Brucie Buffer]

I’m just hoping we can continue with our end of season form, unlike other years where it has meant nothing at the start of a new season.
Injuries will make or break our year.
A lot of our midfield dominance was at the hands of Big Ned, if he can take another step forward and give us some more around the ground that will be huge for the whole progress of our team.
A year too early I think, but a fit and firing CJ on the wing, a few more young ones step up like Day and Newc did, and a new look forward line. I’m bloody excited regardless.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

We're notoriously slow starters though.

Even during our 3peat era we seemed to work into the season a lot better than most teams.

Please please please, don’t reference years from almost 10 years ago like they mean anything to this group.

This is an entirely new group and new coach.

 

[KermitJagger]

We had 7 wins this year, and 3 losses by less than a goal. Those weren't losses where we made it look closer than it was, either - they were games where we probably should have won. Particularly that Richmond game where we have up a 6 goal lead.

Even if we modestly tighten up the difference between our best and worst, which you would assume we will through experience alone given we ran out with 14 players on less than 50 games of experience at times last year, we definitely have a shot of making finals.

Saying that we can't seems cynical to the extreme.

 

[Nugett]

No.

Cause according to all opposition posters in the main threads. Ie who has the better Youf… are Hawthorn tanking. We have the crapiest youf, and we suck badly at tanking but still should be penalised by not having any draft picks until the year 4067 according to Damo the Purple Messiah, and he is always right…

Sarcasm included in this post

 

[Yardie]

We had 7 wins this year, and 3 losses by less than a goal. Those weren't losses where we made it look closer than it was, either - they were games where we probably should have won. Particularly that Richmond game where we have up a 6 goal lead.

Even if we modestly tighten up the difference between our best and worst, which you would assume we will through experience alone given we ran out with 14 players on less than 50 games of experience at times last year, we definitely have a shot of making finals.

Saying that we can't seems cynical to the extreme.

I'm surprised that people are categorically "no" rather than "maybe".

 

[Nugett]

If things go well, yes we could, reality is I think we are in the 14-6 ladder bracket

 

[Sixpence]

Please please please, don’t reference years from almost 10 years ago like they mean anything to this group.

This is an entirely new group and new coach.

Some things inexplicably traverse across different playing groups. Our three-peat years, the last few Clarko years, our Sam years have all been similar, start slow finish strong.

Lots of other examples in footy.

Close games against Geelong
Collingwood choke in GFs
Essendon being March Premiers only to crash and burn later
Etc

 

[KermitJagger]

I'm surprised that people are categorically "no" rather than "maybe".

Me too. Odds are we won't make finals, but it's not to say we can't. I reckon there's genuinely only one club who really couldn't make finals next year and that's West Coast - I wouldn't even be willing to say that North are in the definitely not category after all the gifts they've been given.

 

[DogDaySonny]

Our biggest challenge is that when we start consistently presenting as a finals worthy team, then other teams will prepare against us better. Our young players will be specifically scouted and planned for. And while we took some mighty scalps, I think that teams were looking past us and we were good enough to catch them out. They are unlikely to make that mistake again this year.

So I reckon we can make finals, but it will take another very steep learning curve to overcome schemes specifically designed to tear us apart. Our boys had trouble adjusting gameplay on the fly in response to opposition moves, particularly against teams with a seasoned championship list like the Cats and Richmond. Developing that capability is a whole ‘nother step in maturity.

I do think this is true: our finals fate won’t be decided until the last two rounds. We’ll be right on the cusp and the last two rounds will tell the tale of the year.

 

[SSSSSS]

Please please please, don’t reference years from almost 10 years ago like they mean anything to this group.

This is an entirely new group and new coach.

We were pretty slow starters this year too. I'm putting that down to having Fergus as our key forward for the first 8 weeks though.

The only season I actually remember us jumping out of the block was last year when we came out swinging before stalling in the middle of the year. We also finished rather strong.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Pre and Post Bye breakdown.

R1 - R13
Wins - 4
Losses - 9

Points for - 74.2
Points against - 94.5

Wins - Roos, Eagles, Saints, Lions (2/4 Finals sides) *
Losses - Bombers, Swans, Cats, GWS, Crows, WBD, Freo, Melb, Port (4/9 Finals sides) **

* including one smashing of WCE
** including copping six hidings against Essendon, Swans, Cats, Freo, Melb, Port

R14 Bye

R15 - R24
Wins - 3
Losses - 7

Points for - 72.2
Points against - 87.3

Wins - North, Pies, WBD (1/3 Finals sides)
Losses - Suns, Blues, GWS, Tigers, Saints, Dees, Freo (4/7 Finals sides) *

* including copping two hidings against Suns and Blues