Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[threesixpio]

If I’m an opposition poster and we lose to West Coast I’m probably lurking around here with popcorn

But that ain’t going to happen

 

[Mitch75]

I’ve done the ladder predictor several times as well… for weeks now. It’s clear to me that this year there will be 1 or 2 teams with 52 pts (equal to 13 wins) who miss out on the top 8. It’s also possible, though unlikely, that a team will win 14 games and still miss out. We need to win 7 of the last 9, for 14 wins, to be a high chance to make it. If we win 6 of the last 9, we likely don’t make it, unless we absolutely smash a couple of teams and get our percentage up to around 105% by season end. My guess is we will likely just fall short. Needed to beat Essendon in round 1. Having failed there, winning the Port game would’ve made up for it. But alas, we let it slip. Still, it’s been an awesome recovery after round 5. Good times are coming

 

[Dipper]

I have really tried to be measured. The question I’m now asking is can we win the Granny?

If we make finals as has been said with our percentage we'd probably have to win an extra game. Then we'd be either the form side or #2 going into it...it would be on for young and old.

It couldn't not be.

 

[crazywildhorse]

Even before our rich run of form, things weren't anywhere near as bad as indicated. Up until round 7 our losing margins, especially against Sydney, were blown out immensely by inaccuracy on our part and on extraordinary accuracy from the teams we were playing. At some stage I remember reading that we had more goals kicked against us from outside 50 than every other team combined.

We should have a decent amount of confidence going into our remaining games now that we have key players back and are more reliable in general.

RoundNumber	Opposition	Result	Exp Result	Margin	Expected Score Diff	Exp Margin
1​	Ess	L	W	-24​	-37.8​	10.8​
2​	Melb	L	L	-55​	-24.6​	-30.4​
3​	Geel	L	L	-36​	-33.2​	-4.8​
4​	Coll	L	L	-5​	-1.8​	-2.2​
5​	GC	L	L	-53​	-19.7​	-28.3​
6​	NM	W	W	45​	10.5​	35.5​
7​	Syd	L	L	-76​	-49.6​	-25.4​

The only absolute shocker this year was the GC game. There were a few other poor performances, but that one was by far and away the worst.

Sam’s post match interviews are just about the most insightful thing going around in that regard. He is quite transparent about what is possible and where we are at. He’s been more critical of some of the wins than the loses. Again, the GC game was the only time he was really unhappy. Even after the Sydney game, he was more along the lines of, they are just really good, which has since been confirmed.

 

[kazzooka]

So which games are the ‘gimmes’ again?

These ones: WC (away), Richmond and North (Tassie),Geelong (away), Freo (Tassie), Collingwood, Adelaide (away), GWS (away) and Carlton

 

[Bugs1977]

The only absolute shocker this year was the GC game. There were a few other poor performances, but that one was by far and away the worst.

Sam’s post match interviews are just about the most insightful thing going around in that regard. He is quite transparent about what is possible and where we are at. He’s been more critical of some of the wins than the loses. Again, the GC game was the only time he was really unhappy. Even after the Sydney game, he was more along the lines of, they are just really good, which has since been confirmed.

It was the Melbourne game I was most disappointed in. Just didn’t like the way we went about it and thought it was counterproductive.

 

[hawkman]

It was the Melbourne game I was most disappointed in. Just didn’t like the way we went about it and thought it was counterproductive.

That and the last quarter of the Port game. Felt like Mitchell didn't trust his players enough to play the same way

Hopefully those issues should be gone with how we have gone the last 4 weeks

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

I more confident about beating Carlton than some of the others. Other than Saad they lack leg speed across the park. If the game opens up they won’t keep with us! West Coast, Richmond and the Kangas are must wins. Win 3/6 of the remaining games and I reckon we sneak in.

 

[theiaofseed]

I more confident about beating Carlton than some of the others. Other than Saad they lack leg speed across the park. If the game opens up they won’t keep with us! West Coast, Richmond and the Kangas are must wins. Win 3/6 of the remaining games and I reckon we sneak in.

Should win: West Coast, Richmond, North Melbourne
More likely than not: Fremantle, Adelaide
Tough: Geelong, GWS, Carlton, Collingwood

If we can upset Geelong we've just got hold the line against the sides we should beat. 6 more wins gets us in and we start favourites in 5.

 

[TylerDurden]

Should win: West Coast, Richmond, North Melbourne
More likely than not: Fremantle, Adelaide
Tough: Geelong, GWS, Carlton, Collingwood

If we can upset Geelong we've just got hold the line against the sides we should beat. 6 more wins gets us in and we start favourites in 5.

Nailed it. The Cats game is absolutely massive.

 

[threesixpio]

Nailed it. The Cats game is absolutely massive.

Thinking of going down for it. It would be awesome to watch a win down there - and horrible to watch a loss

 

[CHUBBSS]

Thinking of going down for it. It would be awesome to watch a win down there - and horrible to watch a loss

Make sure to burn it down on the way out

 

[threesixpio]

Make sure to burn it down on the way out

 

[Mr Lizard]

Thinking of going down for it. It would be awesome to watch a win down there

if you can get in, do it. will be huge if we win.

last Kardinia Park for me was Salmon tap to Harford snap, goal ftw! good times

 

[peetoo]

We have as many wins against top 8 sides as Geelong, Essendon and Fremantle.

Which means we have to beat Geelong and Fremantle to break even there

 

[Turtles all the way down]

Should win: West Coast, Richmond, North Melbourne
More likely than not: Fremantle, Adelaide
Tough: Geelong, GWS, Carlton, Collingwood

If we can upset Geelong we've just got hold the line against the sides we should beat. 6 more wins gets us in and we start favourites in 5.

We need 7 more wins. 6 wins won't cut it. Our percentage is too bad.

 

[Kanga Commando]

Nailed it. The Cats game is absolutely massive.

Dan Murphy's doesn't sell enough beer to get me through that game.

 

[Liverbird]

We can do it !!!

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Likely wins/games going in as favourite:
West Coast (A/OS) - Fremantle (H/UTAS) - Adelaide (A/AO) - Richmond (H/MCG) - North (H/UTAS)

5.

Even games, 50/50s:
Collingwood (H/MCG) -

1.

Going in as underdog or hard games:
Geelong (A/GMHBA) - Carlton (A/MCG) - GWS (A/MO)

3.

Hawthorn win 13-14 games, dropping Carlton and GWS games, but that GWS game could be Geelong, or Carlton could be an upset or arrival of Hawthorn and dropping the game against Collingwood.

I did a squiggle and the top 8 was -
Sydney
Carlton
GWS
Port
Essendon
Geelong
Collingwood
Hawthorn

FINALS
Sydney V Port Adelaide @ SCG / QF
Carlton V GWS @ MCG / QF
Essendon V Hawthorn @ MCG / EF
Geelong V Collingwood @ MCG / EF

 

[KermitJagger]

FoxFooty Power Rankings don't mean much, but for only having beaten 1 top 8 team we've beaten 3 of the teams above us on this power ranking list.

 

[GinniAndTonic]

If GWS don’t have Taylor against us we go in favourites easily.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

Thinking of going down for it. It would be awesome to watch a win down there - and horrible to watch a loss

I am prepared for the drive home...

 

[eldorado]

We need 7 more wins. 6 wins won't cut it. Our percentage is too bad.

6 could easily cut it, due to 1) teams that have had a draw 2) teams ahead of us playing each other 3) teams ahead of us losing form.

We don't know at this stage.

 

[peetoo]

We need 7 more wins. 6 wins won't cut it. Our percentage is too bad.

Six and a half

 

[TylerDurden]

Depends on how much we smash WC, Tiges and North by.