Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[Davo-27]

I don't like that our tackling dropped off recently, but I have loved the footy we are playing since round 7, we're in every game except against Sydney who are favourites for the premiership this year...

Also just wanted to say, don't defend a lead 30 minutes out like we did against Port for crying out loud, we put too much pressure on our guys and they nearly won it under terrible circumstances, but don't do it ever again thanks.

I want to see an improvement to tackling (pressure and the benefits of tackling/pressure on opponents like turnovers and confusion which leads to offensive opportunities) after the bye to think we have a chance at finals.

 

[cryptor]

I don't like that our tackling dropped off recently, but I have loved the footy we are playing since round 7, we're in every game except against Sydney who are favourites for the premiership this year...

Also just wanted to say, don't defend a lead 30 minutes out like we did against Port for crying out loud, we put too much pressure on our guys and they nearly won it under terrible circumstances, but don't do it ever again thanks.

Tackle numbers probably dropped off because we started winning the ball at stoppages more.

Also the tighter HTB interpretation means players are having to dispose of the ball quicker rather than ride a tackle and take a stoppage. Our constant pressure means these rushed disposals eventually don't hit a target and then we're killing the comp in groundball gets.

 

[Roddy]

I dislike bye week very much.

And has it come at a bad time for us, ie when we had great momentum going?

I'm sure the players are appreciating it however...

 

[Simon Crawshay]

I dislike bye week very much.

And has it come at a bad time for us, ie when we had great momentum going?

I'm sure the players are appreciating it however...

It's come at a bad time but it's necessary.

Without a bye it would catch up to the players sooner or later, it's important they get that week off to recover. It's a long season.

 

[Cyril says]

It's come at a bad time but it's necessary.

Without a bye it would catch up to the players sooner or later, it's important they get that week off to recover. It's a long season.

Don’t agree with this take. It would be the same for everyone - no byes would be awesome.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

I don't like that our tackling dropped off recently, but I have loved the footy we are playing since round 7, we're in every game except against Sydney who are favourites for the premiership this year...

Also just wanted to say, don't defend a lead 30 minutes out like we did against Port for crying out loud, we put too much pressure on our guys and they nearly won it under terrible circumstances, but don't do it ever again thanks.

I want to see an improvement to tackling (pressure and the benefits of tackling/pressure on opponents like turnovers and confusion which leads to offensive opportunities) after the bye to think we have a chance at finals.

our pressure on oppo teams is the best it's been in years. our defensive structures are rated top 4~ in the comp since round 7. i think your analysis is over-relying on raw tackle numbers because what you've written in brackets is a key to our recent success

 

[Sixpence]

Don’t agree with this take. It would be the same for everyone - no byes would be awesome.

For the fans, yes, but they probably exist at the request of the AFLPA.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

A magnificent day at AO that was. We couldn't miss a set shot all day. And Jai gave my daughter a footy, which started an obsession (both footy and Jai)

Don’t blame her, Jai

 

[peetoo]

Tackle numbers probably dropped off because we started winning the ball at stoppages more.

Also the tighter HTB interpretation means players are having to dispose of the ball quicker rather than ride a tackle and take a stoppage. Our constant pressure means these rushed disposals eventually don't hit a target and then we're killing the comp in groundball gets.

It’s still not clear which clubs are winners and losers from the changed interpretation

 

[cryptor]

It’s still not clear which clubs are winners and losers from the changed interpretation

I feel like we're winners, but it might just be because we're winning

 

[Hawkers Hero]

I'm in the one week at a time camp and what will be will be.

No easy games on the lead in if we are even a little bit off with our pressure and mindset.....even the roos have seemingly found something and given Clarkos love of a late season win will be right up for beating us R24 if it will keep us out of finals.

 

[tommyk72]

Lewis is our best tall forward, when he’s fit he’ll come into the side, just like when Day was fit, or when Sicily is fit.

You play your best players when they are fit. It’s that simple.

But it’s not the same. Neither of those players played at BHH. Lewis already has. The point isn’t that he isn’t one of our best players, it’s that his pathway back into the team will be different to these guys and it’s not ‘straight back in’. This is compounded by the fact our forward line is functioning so well together.

My preference is at least one more game at BHH - preferably a full match - and then he comes in for Gunston with Chol dropping to second forward. It will be interesting to see how this affects our synergy, as the forwards are playing so well as a group.

 

[tommyk72]

Tackle numbers probably dropped off because we started winning the ball at stoppages more.

Also the tighter HTB interpretation means players are having to dispose of the ball quicker rather than ride a tackle and take a stoppage. Our constant pressure means these rushed disposals eventually don't hit a target and then we're killing the comp in groundball gets.

Good point. Are tackle numbers down across the lead since the new interpretation? Not sure where to find that stat.

 

[KermitJagger]

Interestingly positive stat for us. It reads as negative but shows an area where we could get instant improvement after the bye.

We have 6 of the 50 worst kicks for goal this season by Kick Rating. No surprises really, Hardwick the only one in there that shocks me a little but the rest very much inaccurate purely on the eye test this season.

 

[hawkinoz]

But it’s not the same. Neither of those players played at BHH. Lewis already has. The point isn’t that he isn’t one of our best players, it’s that his pathway back into the team will be different to these guys and it’s not ‘straight back in’. This is compounded by the fact our forward line is functioning so well together.

My preference is at least one more game at BHH - preferably a full match - and then he comes in for Gunston with Chol dropping to second forward. It will be interesting to see how this affects our synergy, as the forwards are playing so well as a group.

This was Mitch Lewis write up from BH coach which say Mitch wanted to play full game but was not allowed to based on Sam's direction. He is fit

Mitch Lewis (One goal, eight disposals, four marks, four score involvements)​

“It was a great return from Mitch Lewis. We were rapt to have him back out there. He's a premiership player at Box Hill and he really values the program. Mitch, CJ (Changkuoth Jiath) and Dylan Moore are the three players who really talk up the Box Hill program for helping start their careers and they're all premiership players in the program. Mitch was great and his leadership was exceptional. He really brought into our program and I didn’t expect anything else from him. It was just really nice for him to hit the scoreboard and to hit bodies again, there was no expectation. He was really disappointed he could only play a half because he was feeling really good but to his credit, he stayed on the bench and helped coach our young forwards after half-time. It’s great for our supporters to hear that he got through the game really positively and hopefully now, he can really bounce after the bye and we can see some really consistent footy.”

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

But it’s not the same. Neither of those players played at BHH. Lewis already has. The point isn’t that he isn’t one of our best players, it’s that his pathway back into the team will be different to these guys and it’s not ‘straight back in’. This is compounded by the fact our forward line is functioning so well together.

My preference is at least one more game at BHH - preferably a full match - and then he comes in for Gunston with Chol dropping to second forward. It will be interesting to see how this affects our synergy, as the forwards are playing so well as a group.

None of those players have played BHH because they were made to get fit and once they were deemed so they came straight in.

Lewis hasn’t had the same mini preseason that Day had, because of how they’ve had to manage his knee. They’ve then given him game time to get back up to speed.

Once he ticks the boxes of being fit enough to complete a match he’ll be in the side because he’s our best forward.

 

[peetoo]

Interestingly positive stat for us. It reads as negative but shows an area where we could get instant improvement after the bye.

We have 6 of the 50 worst kicks for goal this season by Kick Rating. No surprises really, Hardwick the only one in there that shocks me a little but the rest very much inaccurate purely on the eye test this season.

View attachment 2025815

Surely no one kicks better than ‘expected goals’?

 

[KermitJagger]

Surely no one kicks better than ‘expected goals’?

Quite a few actually, just none from the Hawks in the top 50. I assume Chol is somewhere just outside of it.

Surprisingly there are a number of players who have been more unexpectedly accurate than Watson has been inaccurate.

This is why I see it as a sign of possible improvement.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Interestingly positive stat for us. It reads as negative but shows an area where we could get instant improvement after the bye.

We have 6 of the 50 worst kicks for goal this season by Kick Rating. No surprises really, Hardwick the only one in there that shocks me a little but the rest very much inaccurate purely on the eye test this season.

View attachment 2025815

You say 6 of the 50 worst kicks....I say you only need to look at the top 5 - Watson, Dear and Ginnivan are all represented in the Top 5 worst shots for goal in the AFL.

They have combined for 28 goals so far, and should have been 41, even with 'average' kicking. A goal a game just from those three players through poor goal-kicking.

Even if they only kicked the ones they should, we beat Pies and Power - and are now sitting at 9-5, equal 2nd on the ladder.

 

[mustang]

You say 6 of the 50 worst kicks....I say you only need to look at the top 5 - Watson, Dear and Ginnivan are all represented in the Top 5 worst shots for goal in the AFL.

They have combined for 28 goals so far, and should have been 41, even with 'average' kicking. A goal a game just from those three players through poor goal-kicking.

Even if they only kicked the ones they should, we beat Pies and Power - and are now sitting at 9-5, equal 2nd on the ladder.

Hopefully this is something they work on over summer, as our 3peat side didn’t miss many and I feel Sam will want his team to not waste a chance also.

If McKay can improve his run up over summer we can also.

 

[Philhawk]

Consider this my “death riding the teams above us list”

Time to stick a fork in Geelong. They’re done.

 

[HawthornHawk]

Interestingly positive stat for us. It reads as negative but shows an area where we could get instant improvement after the bye.

We have 6 of the 50 worst kicks for goal this season by Kick Rating. No surprises really, Hardwick the only one in there that shocks me a little but the rest very much inaccurate purely on the eye test this season.

The one that has surprised me is Ginnivan, felt like he could kick them from anywhere at the Pies

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Don't understand the talk about 13 wins with poor percentage will see us miss. The percentage accumulates every win you get. 5 goal wins in all our wins will see it up around 110 by the end of the year as long as we don't lose by alot when we lose. If you miss out on finals with that percentage you would be incredibly unlucky. I can see the teams with high percentages coming back to the field a bit once things start to tighten up.

 

[KermitJagger]

Don't understand the talk about 13 wins with poor percentage will see us miss. The percentage accumulates every win you get. 5 goal wins in all our wins will see it up around 110 by the end of the year as long as we don't lose by alot when we lose. If you miss out on finals with that percentage you would be incredibly unlucky. I can see the teams with high percentages coming back to the field a bit once things start to tighten up.

This is also true of every other team in contention for finals, however. Being behind others in percentage does complicate it. Additionally, the season doesn't really tighten up much at the end of the year - quite often it's the opposite and the final rounds see blow outs as clubs out of contention tend to give up.

 

[Hawk Hawkins]

Hold your beer all. After three pints and going on the ladder predictor, not only do we make finals, we win the granny by 14 goals.