Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[hawkman]

Still need to MASSIVELY shellack WC to rise with %

Or Geelong would do

 

[threesixpio]

Or Geelong would do

 

[Davo-27]

We are only -86 or -87(I forget and can't check atm) in percentage, 100 point win soon? I was hoping we would've done Richmond by more, but we took the foot off the accelerator

 

[threesixpio]

We are only -86 or -87(I forget and can't check atm) in percentage, 100 point win soon? I was hoping we would've done Richmond by more, but we took the foot off the accelerator

Ditto

 

[Philhawk]

Damn, would have loved North to have done us a favor and pip the Dees there.

 

[hawkman]

Melbourne, Geelong and Port are teams we should be able jump. The loser of the Freo and GC game as well. Need to find one more

 

[Liverbird]

We can finish 3rd.

Apart from Swans and Blues, others are very even.

Believe Hawkers believe... the players and coach do !!!

 

[theiaofseed]

Percentage wont be the reason we miss. If we win 6 of the last 9 our percentage will be fine.

 

[KermitJagger]

View attachment 2027419

Percentage wont be the reason we miss. If we win 6 of the last 9 our percentage will be fine.

Unfortunately these guys are also in front of us and in mostly good form.

 

[mustang]

Unfortunately these guys are also in front of us and in mostly good form.

View attachment 2027436

They all play Sydney and we don’t so it be could a loss to them, if Sydney keep playing the same way.

 

[Bugs1977]

This is the run home for the teams I think we have a mathematical chance in passing. I didn't include the * because after today I think they'll be sitting on 38 points in 3rd spot but if they somehow the bed then they'd still be mathematically possible to chase down too their poor percentage. IMO Cats, Port and Freo* are all the teams that can now be dislodged from the 8.

*I expect Freo to be sitting in 5th and the Dees back to 9th by the close of the round.

GWS	Cats	Port	Dees	Lions	Freo	Dogs	Suns	Hawks
					Suns (H)		Freo (A)
Crows (A)	Scum (A)	Saints (A)	Lions (A)	Dees (H)	Swans (A)	North (A)	Pies (H)	Eagles (A)
Blues (H)	Hawks (H)	Dogs (H)	Eagles (H)	Crows (H)	Tigers (H)	Port (A)	North (A)	Cats (A)
Tigers (A)	Pies (A)	Suns (A)	Scum (H)	Eagles (A)	Hawks (A)	Blues (H)	Port (H)	Freo (H)
Suns (H)	Dogs (A)	Tigers (H)	Freo (A)	Swans (H)	Dees (H)	Cats (A)	Giants (A)	Pies (H)
Dees (A)	North (A)	Blues (A)	Giants (H)	Suns (A)	Eagles (H)	Swans (A)	Lions (H)	Crows (A)
Hawks (H)	Crows (H)	Swans (H)	Dogs (A)	Saints (A)	Scum (A)	Dees (H)	Eagles (A)	Giants (A)
Lions (A)	Freo (A)	Dees (A)	Port (H)	Giants (H)	Cats (H)	Crows (A)	Scum (A)	Blues (A)
Freo (H)	Saints (A)	Crows (H)	Suns (A)	Pies (A)	Giants (A)	North (H)	Dees (H)	Tigers (H)
Dogs (A)	Eagles (H)	Freo (A)	Pies (H)	Scum (H)	Port (H)	Giants (H)	Tigers (A)	North (H)

 

[earthworms]

after we destroyed richmond in front of 90,000 i'm confident that we will walk over west coast. we're past the days of losing to sub standard teams.

 

[peetoo]

Here’s 2023 after 14 games each and the final ladder. 3 in 3 out of the eight, but two of the three in were sitting 14th and 15th. Both made prelims

From the bottom,
carlton who’d beaten noone of note for 20 rounds went WWWWWWWWL - TO GWS previous was 2W7L
GWS went WWWWWLLWW PREVIOUS 3W6L
Sydney went DLWWWWWWL PREVIOUS 3W6L
Richmond went LWWWLLLW PREVIOUS 5W4L
Freo went LLLLWLWLW PREVIOUS 5W4L
GC WENT LLWLWLLLL PREVIOUS 6W3L
GEEL WENT DWWLLWLLL PREVIOUS 5W4L
ADEL WENT WLLLWWLLW PREVIOUS 4W5L
WB WENT WLLWLWLLW PREVIOUS 6W3L
ESS WENT LWLLLWWLL PREVIOUS 4W5L
StK WENT WLLWWLWWL PREVIOUS 4W5L

FOR THE RECORD HAWKS FINISHED 3W6L IN The last 9 ROUNDS 2023

Of the 11 teams above, only carlton GWS Sydney went better than our anticipated target of 6W3L. And none had 7W2L in the previous 9. Only 2 of the 11 had 6W in the previous 9 games
Of the other 8, only StK went better than 4

 

[Bugs1977]

Here’s 2023 after 14 games each and the final ladder

View attachment 2027687View attachment 2027688

So Swans got in last season with 12.5 wins yeah? If that's the case then you'd hope that 13 wins does the job but with as many as 9 teams separated by 1 win (half a win in some cases) then there's every chance that percentage will be the deciding factor.

 

[cryptor]

Just keep winning and the rest will sort itself out.

 

[grumbleguts]

One game at a time absolutely. Then shift ure gaze to the next just win the next one and repeat

That sounds like StKildaspeak. We take it one flag at a time.

 

[Billyc]

This is the run home for the teams I think we have a mathematical chance in passing. I didn't include the * because after today I think they'll be sitting on 38 points in 3rd spot but if they somehow the bed then they'd still be mathematically possible to chase down too their poor percentage. IMO Cats, Port and Freo* are all the teams that can now be dislodged from the 8.

*I expect Freo to be sitting in 5th and the Dees back to 9th by the close of the round.


View attachment 2027643

GWS	Cats	Port	Dees	Lions	Freo	Dogs	Suns	Hawks
					Suns (H)		Freo (A)
Crows (A)	Scum (A)	Saints (A)	Lions (A)	Dees (H)	Swans (A)	North (A)	Pies (H)	Eagles (A)
Blues (H)	Hawks (H)	Dogs (H)	Eagles (H)	Crows (H)	Tigers (H)	Port (A)	North (A)	Cats (A)
Tigers (A)	Pies (A)	Suns (A)	Scum (H)	Eagles (A)	Hawks (A)	Blues (H)	Port (H)	Freo (H)
Suns (H)	Dogs (A)	Tigers (H)	Freo (A)	Swans (H)	Dees (H)	Cats (A)	Giants (A)	Pies (H)
Dees (A)	North (A)	Blues (A)	Giants (H)	Suns (A)	Eagles (H)	Swans (A)	Lions (H)	Crows (A)
Hawks (H)	Crows (H)	Swans (H)	Dogs (A)	Saints (A)	Scum (A)	Dees (H)	Eagles (A)	Giants (A)
Lions (A)	Freo (A)	Dees (A)	Port (H)	Giants (H)	Cats (H)	Crows (A)	Scum (A)	Blues (A)
Freo (H)	Saints (A)	Crows (H)	Suns (A)	Pies (A)	Giants (A)	North (H)	Dees (H)	Tigers (H)
Dogs (A)	Eagles (H)	Freo (A)	Pies (H)	Scum (H)	Port (H)	Giants (H)	Tigers (A)	North (H)

We are the only ones with all 4 bottom sides. It really is in our own hands. Beat the bottom 4 sides and more than half of the games against other sides in the same boat and we make it. With Geelong, Port and Melbourne in free fall, there’s at least 3 spots up for grabs. I reckon Brisbane will take one of those spots.

 

[Mitch75]

This year it's very close between 3rd and 13th... Apart from Sydney and Carlton, everyone else currently in the 8 can potentially fall out. In the end, between 1 and 3 teams on 13 wins (or for those with 2 draws, 52 pts) will miss out.

 

[Bugs1977]

We are the only ones with all 4 bottom sides. It really is in our own hands. Beat the bottom 4 sides and more than half of the games against other sides in the same boat and we make it. With Geelong, Port and Melbourne in free fall, there’s at least 3 spots up for grabs. I reckon Brisbane will take one of those spots.

I don't have Melbourne in the top 8 by the end of the round with Freo pushing them out with a victory over the Suns today. Suns haven't won an away game in over 12 months.

 

[kazzooka]

That and the last quarter of the Port game. Felt like Mitchell didn't trust his players enough to play the same way

Hopefully those issues should be gone with how we have gone the last 4 weeks

I feel differently about the Port game. To me you can never have it all your way against sides like port, just so happened that their turn was late in the game.

If not for some monumental brain fades in the last minute, we win by 11 points. Few things we should improve is that like what Clarkson said about the North v Collingwood game. When a team is chasing down a big lead they need to be really risky and aggressive, that means half backs just streaming forward, going through the corridor etc... We should be able to take advantage of this and hurt them the other way. 1 or 2 intercepts of their reckless attack and we can go forward and kick a sealer.

 

[Hawk Hawkins]

I love this time of year. Suddenly about half of Big Footy turns into stats wizards.

Three more weeks until it flips to religion as only divine intervention can help.

Followed by anger, and finally optimism at the new season. Enjoy the emotional rollercoaster all.

 

[mustang]

Would be good for Queenslanders if GC and Brisbane finish in 5th and 6th and we finish 7th or 8th and our final is in Queensland.

 

[hawkman]

Would be good for Queenslanders if GC and Brisbane finish in 5th and 6th and we finish 7th or 8th and our final is in Queensland.

As long as we play Brisbane

 

[Sixpence]

If we win our next 3 games, we should be in the top 8.

 

[Bedi]

Now the dust has settled in terms of byes, the fact we're only one game out of the 8 (and 2 games from top 4) is nothing short of a miracle. We're a legitimate chance of not just making it but doing some damage.