Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[Strapping Young Lad]

54 goals from Breust in 2024. Has increased his previous season tally by 7 goals each season for the last few seasons.

Who am I to argue with this sound logic.

 

[KermitJagger]

Once again, really don't understand how a hard no is so popular here. I understand hesitance, I don't necessarily think we will play finals but dismissing it as impossible is extreme.

 

[Sixpence]

Once again, really don't understand how a hard no is so popular here. I understand hesitance, I don't necessarily think we will play finals but dismissing it as impossible is extreme.

Some people get offended by optimism. Don't know why, maybe they're just so jaded they can't bring themselves to dream. Or maybe they're just miserable pricks.

You don't win prizes for being realistic. Live a little. Get excited. Flag or GTFO!

 

[Bee Dee 63]

We need a few things to go right, but we could easily make a quantum leap this year.
I think the biggest improvement will come from the forward line.

I seriously hope that Sam gives Hardwick a chance to play forward.
Perhaps some people may have forgotten, but in his draft year, he was the leading scorer across the TAC Cup series with fifty-six goals from sixteen matches. He finished twenty goals in front of the next most prolific goal kicker. That TAC Cup season included a couple of decent forwards in Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

and Harry Mackay. He kicked bags of 12, 10 and 8 in that season.
He will also add much needed defensive pressure to our forward line.
He'd make a pretty good 'big brother' to look after Nick Watson.

If Hardwick goes forward, (and all are fit), that will give us 8 legitimate forward targets competing for 6 forward positions.
I think Ginnivan is the one most vulnerable, with Gunston being managed, playing some matches and missing others.

It would give us 4 leading targets in Lewis, Watson, Hardwick and Gunston, with the ball coming in fast!
Crumbing threats in Breust and Watson waiting for Chol to bring any high balls to ground.
It has the makings of a seriously good forward line.

I won't say we WILL make finals, but I do think we COULD make finals.

I'm excited.

 

[xmarksthespot]

Once again, really don't understand how a hard no is so popular here. I understand hesitance, I don't necessarily think we will play finals but dismissing it as impossible is extreme.

Absolutely agree. I'm actually a little shocked how restrained people are here. Certainly understand, the whole 'once bitten, twice shy' arguement, especially after the start to 2023, but we've made major strides offseason in addressing the most glaring weakness in the ground, being the forward-line, after making major strides last year with the midfield (formerly our most glaring weakness).

Like the midfield last year, I think it might take half a season for the forward-line to gel, particlarly after so many changes, but I'm optimistic that I50 conversion can be the 'centre clearances' of 2024, that is the stat where we start to see pick up as we start to click into gear.

Each to their own I guess, but I'm cautiously optimistic that if we come into mid-season at around 6-6, we'll come home strong.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Once again, really don't understand how a hard no is so popular here. I understand hesitance, I don't necessarily think we will play finals but dismissing it as impossible is extreme.

You’ll find they’re the same posters who take losses poorly, but also make excuses for the opposition when we win to try to counter any enthusiasm. Odd bods.

 

[Tuck In]

Can we? Yes of course and with a little improvement across the board added to the extra year experience and added firepower it is achievable.

Will we? Not sure tbh. It will take some others not being their best and for us to be so more often than not. That means we can only control a part of our destiny hence the hesitation.

If pushed, I’d say we will be anywhere between7 and 12.

 

[kazzooka]

A lot of people going to early thinking our draw is tough and others have easier ones that's all assuming similar output. Sides playing us or gold coast twice may think they have an easy draw but lose all 4. Richmond and Geelong are about to plummet. Melbourne off field drama could boil over into a horrendous year where they become easybeats.

With all that in mind, I've looked at the fixture and I can't see us losing a game. And correct me if I'm wrong but no undefeated side has ever missed finals. So by that logic I would say yes we can play finals.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

You’ll find they’re the same posters who take losses poorly, but also make excuses for the opposition when we win to try to counter any enthusiasm. Odd bods.

Granted I haven’t said we absolutely can’t make finals - but I’m not a toys out of the cot during losses person and I’ve been one of the more objective people during the darker periods of the past two years because I believed in the rebuild. I’m just being realistic - and I don’t say that in the ‘I’m being pessimistic but dressing it up a bit’ sense.

I think we’ll likely win 8-11 games, most likely on the higher end of that range but I’m allowing for less because we are a young side. I’m basing this off Adelaide’s present rebuild which I think is similar to ours and I feel we are about a year behind them. Last year they just missed out on finals (and were likely cost them due to umpiring error). That’s where I see our 2024 - knocking on the door of the 8 but likely just not being there yet.

This said - if our new forward line can function, if Chol and Lewis can work in tandem well, if Ginnivan hits his 2022 form and beyond and Watson can transition to senior footy without much issue - anything is possible. We are probably still lacking one taller defender to make our defence significantly improved so we are going to need our scoring output to lead any charge to playing finals.

 

[FB19]

Yes we can the league is very close, but I don't think it’s that important for 2024. My hopes are to see continued development in the youth, a few fringe players jump up and surprise and as close to the elimination of non competitive losses as we can. Have to allow for a few bad weeks and a few games where we get blown out in a quarter or half, just hope that’s not against dons or cats. To me 8+ wins with our draw is another good step forward my prediction is 9-10.

 

[peetoo]

Once again, really don't understand how a hard no is so popular here. I understand hesitance, I don't necessarily think we will play finals but dismissing it as impossible is extreme.

Would have been the vibe in 2007 pre season too

 

[wizzard400]

Injuries will play their part, no doubt.
But I actually don't think our depth is too much of an issue, particularly if you put together a 22. You'll likely have guys like Morrison, Frost, Meek, MacKenzie, DGB, Mitchell and maybe even Jiath, Impey and Gunston all playing at Box Hill if you do.

As it stands in 2007 our list was 16th for experience with an average games played of 47.
In 2024 our average games played at Round 1 will be 59.6.

In 2007 our average was 22.7, while in 2024 it will be 23.7.

In 2007 we had Franklin kick 73 goals as a standout.
Rough 40.
Boyle 32.
Dixon 24.
Hodge(23), Lewis(14) and Crawf(10) combined for 47 goals from the middle.

Can we get 55 out of Lewis, 40 out of Chol, 35 from Punky and 40 combined from Wiz and Ginni, and then also get 45 goals from Moore(20), Newcombe(15), Worpel(10)? How many can Croc, Amon and Weddle kick?

I don't think it's beyond the realms of belief that our forward line which is probably the most potent it's been since Rough/Cyril retired can get the job done each week, particularly if our midfield continues its progression at the coalface.

Regardless with Wiz, Chol, Punky and Ginnivan in there we're likely going to be treated to some pretty exciting goals in 2024.

It’s more the backline that I’m concerned about if we’re talking team structure.

There’s a reason why they say percentage is a key indicator of how sustainable your brand of footy is.

It’s all well and good to score plenty of goals, but if you can’t shut out the opposition in the modern game then they’re always in with a chance.

Our issues in key defensive posts are well documented, but let’s take a bit more of a practical, statistical view in the theme of this thread.

James Sicily obviously speaks for himself. Rightfully All-Australian and the stats back it up:
- Of the 19 games he played, he averaged 2.7 defensive 1on1s, losing 15.4%. That is up there in the elite category with your Moores, Mays, Weiterings etc.

But let’s look at our other key defenders.

James Blanck:
- Of the 15 games he played, he averaged 2.5 defensive 1on1s, losing 23.7%.

Sam Frost:
- Of the 18 games he played, he averaged 1.8 defensive 1on1s, losing 27.3%.

We didn’t need stats to say this, but after Sicily, our key defender stocks fall off a cliff.

Our midfield and forward line developments are tracking in the right direction. But I believe that as a team taking the next step, filling the defensive gap in the form of a partner for Sicily is/should be priority. And I believe the club/coaches know this as is evidenced by our pursuits of McKay and Ratugolea.

Again, this is anything new, but some food for thought given this discussion.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It’s more the backline that I’m concerned about if we’re talking team structure.

There’s a reason why they say percentage is a key indicator of how sustainable your brand of footy is.

It’s all well and good to score plenty of goals, but if you can’t shut out the opposition in the modern game then they’re always in with a chance.

Our issues in key defensive posts are well documented, but let’s take a bit more of a practical, statistical view in the theme of this thread.

James Sicily obviously speaks for himself. Rightfully All-Australian and the stats back it up:
- Of the 19 games he played, he averaged 2.7 defensive 1on1s, losing 15.4%. That is up there in the elite category with your Moores, Mays, Weiterings etc.

But let’s look at our other key defenders.

James Blanck:
- Of the 15 games he played, he averaged 2.5 defensive 1on1s, losing 23.7%.

Sam Frost:
- Of the 18 games he played, he averaged 1.8 defensive 1on1s, losing 27.3%.

We didn’t need stats to say this, but after Sicily, our key defender stocks fall off a cliff.

Our midfield and forward line developments are tracking in the right direction. But I believe that as a team taking the next step, filling the defensive gap in the form of a partner for Sicily is/should be priority. And I believe the club/coaches know this as is evidenced by our pursuits of McKay and Ratugolea.

Again, this is anything new, but some food for thought given this discussion.

Sam supposedly liked Ratagolea as a forward but we ended up with Chol instead, and McCartney is on the record as saying McKay was an attempt to transition from Frost who’s 30+.

As I wrote in the Round 1 thread regarding the defense, below.

It’s really not that big of a problem, and I feel like the clubs interest in McKay has completely spooked Hawthorn supporters into feeling like we’ve got some grand issue in the back half with key backs, when we do not.

We wanted McKay to come onto the list as a transition or upgrade from Frost according to McCartney, but we’re also comfortable with our back group. Would we like to improve it? Of course, that can be said for every area of the ground, but it doesn’t mean the defense is a major concern.

Just look at how we handled the talls of the Lions, Dogs, Pies and Saints in the back half of the year and you’ll see that we’ve got an improving system. Most of those sides got the better of us, if at all, from goal kicking mids and smalls.

 

[wizzard400]

Sam supposedly liked Ratagolea as a forward but we ended up with Chol instead, and McCartney is on the record as saying McKay was an attempt to transition from Frost who’s 30+.

As I wrote in the Round 1 thread regarding the defense, below.

It’s a fair point, but I don’t think it doesn’t warrant discussion. I’m not sure I could objectively say it’s ‘improving’ per se. I’d need to see a bit more.

While what you’re saying isn’t wrong, does it mean that we’ve got a premiership winning defence in development? I don’t think you can solely point to beating both grand finalists as proof. You need more data.

 

[BobHawk]

I think we are a sneaky chance but many things need to go right. Midfield is our strength and we will have to wait and see how the forward line performs with all the new personnel but would hope we can kick winning scores. Like most, i am mainly concerned with the backline and the lack of a quality KPD to support Sicily. Would make a huge difference.

Playing Essendon in the opening round is perfect IMO. They are now being talked up as a finals team so we get the chance to make a big statement. A very important match for our team. Coaches and players have the entire 3 months of the preseason to plan and prepare for it.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It’s a fair point, but I don’t think it doesn’t warrant discussion. I’m not sure I could objectively say it’s ‘improving’ per se. I’d need to see a bit more.

While what you’re saying isn’t wrong, does it mean that we’ve got a premiership winning defence in development? I don’t think you can solely point to beating both grand finalists as proof. You need more data.

I don’t think we have the final pieces of the backline, but also don’t think it’s the major issue people have suggested, as shown by those stats.

 

[unitedhawk]

I'm not in the camp that's disappointed with our fixture list. We'll be backing ourselves against any opposition. How many other teams beat both grand-finalists in '23?

We established a solid base in the engine room in 2023 and have addressed our F50 deficiencies in the off-season.

We're aimimg for the summit and Sam has repeatedly said there are no speed limits in terms of how quickly we get there. We can rest assured he'll be sending the team out with the belief that they can win, no matter who we're playing.

Will we make finals in '24? I don't know but there's one thing I know for sure: That's what we'll be aiming for.

Aim high. Always.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

It’s more the backline that I’m concerned about if we’re talking team structure.

There’s a reason why they say percentage is a key indicator of how sustainable your brand of footy is.

It’s all well and good to score plenty of goals, but if you can’t shut out the opposition in the modern game then they’re always in with a chance.

Our issues in key defensive posts are well documented, but let’s take a bit more of a practical, statistical view in the theme of this thread.

James Sicily obviously speaks for himself. Rightfully All-Australian and the stats back it up:
- Of the 19 games he played, he averaged 2.7 defensive 1on1s, losing 15.4%. That is up there in the elite category with your Moores, Mays, Weiterings etc.

But let’s look at our other key defenders.

James Blanck:
- Of the 15 games he played, he averaged 2.5 defensive 1on1s, losing 23.7%.

Sam Frost:
- Of the 18 games he played, he averaged 1.8 defensive 1on1s, losing 27.3%.

We didn’t need stats to say this, but after Sicily, our key defender stocks fall off a cliff.

Our midfield and forward line developments are tracking in the right direction. But I believe that as a team taking the next step, filling the defensive gap in the form of a partner for Sicily is/should be priority. And I believe the club/coaches know this as is evidenced by our pursuits of McKay and Ratugolea.

Again, this is anything new, but some food for thought given this discussion.

Really speaks to the quality of Sicily in that not only is he hands down the best offensive Backman in the leauge but also up with the very best in the defensive side of his game as well.

I reckon you could make a case that James Sicily as a medium/tall backman and Tony Greene as a small/medium forward have been the best two players (on average) in the leauge over the last five years.

Of course it's always midfielders who get the brownlows, etc so they never get the recognition they deserve (at least externally).

 

[SSSSSS]

Really speaks to the quality of Sicily in that not only is he hands down the best offensive Backman in the leauge but also up with the very best in the defensive side of his game as well.

I reckon you could make a case that James Sicily as a medium/tall backman and Tony Greene as a small/medium forward have been the best two players (on average) in the leauge over the last five years.

Of course it's always midfielders who get the brownlows, etc so they never get the recognition they deserve (at least externally).

He's basically the Dennis Rodman of the AFL. The best defensive player and rebounder and a complete nutter, white-line fevered 'bad boy' of the league.

Just keep Sis away from North Korea.

 

[Strebi3]

Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

25

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

believes we are making finals next year. And that’s all that matters to me

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Dylan Moore believes we are making finals next year. And that’s all that matters to me

He broke the curse of the 36 so I guess if anyone knows about ending a bad run it's him!

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Granted I haven’t said we absolutely can’t make finals - but I’m not a toys out of the cot during losses person and I’ve been one of the more objective people during the darker periods of the past two years because I believed in the rebuild. I’m just being realistic - and I don’t say that in the ‘I’m being pessimistic but dressing it up a bit’ sense.

I think we’ll likely win 8-11 games, most likely on the higher end of that range but I’m allowing for less because we are a young side. I’m basing this off Adelaide’s present rebuild which I think is similar to ours and I feel we are about a year behind them. Last year they just missed out on finals (and were likely cost them due to umpiring error). That’s where I see our 2024 - knocking on the door of the 8 but likely just not being there yet.

This said - if our new forward line can function, if Chol and Lewis can work in tandem well, if Ginnivan hits his 2022 form and beyond and Watson can transition to senior footy without much issue - anything is possible. We are probably still lacking one taller defender to make our defence significantly improved so we are going to need our scoring output to lead any charge to playing finals.

I think you're being conservative.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I think you're being conservative.

I admire your confidence and I’d love more than anyone to be wrong - that said I can’t think of many other sides in a hard rebuild that have jumped from a bottom 4 finish to being finalists at this stage of the rebuild. You could argue the Lions did in year 3 of Fagan (15th to 2nd) however the Lions had just added Lachie Neale that year, having added Cameron the year prior and having a stack of young talent from the top end of the draft that they’d finally managed to not have leave. They also had Harris Andrews coming into his prime. I am not sure our list is quite where theirs was at when they made that leap. Add Smith next year and another year of development into our kids and absolutely I think we can talk too 4 if this year goes really well.

At this rate I won’t be disappointed with a season where we have say 10-11 wins and finish with a percentage around the 100 mark. That’s a massive improvement on this year and shows a team heading in the right direction that could add Smith and maybe a positional need FA and start to really contend.

All this said I don’t think people saying we will play finals next season are crazy or silly optimists etc - just a difference of opinion on where this rebuild is presently at is all.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I admire your confidence and I’d love more than anyone to be wrong - that said I can’t think of many other sides in a hard rebuild that have jumped from a bottom 4 finish to being finalists at this stage of the rebuild. You could argue the Lions did in year 3 of Fagan (15th to 2nd) however the Lions had just added Lachie Neale that year, having added Cameron the year prior and having a stack of young talent from the top end of the draft that they’d finally managed to not have leave. They also had Harris Andrews coming into his prime. I am not sure our list is quite where theirs was at when they made that leap. Add Smith next year and another year of development into our kids and absolutely I think we can talk too 4 if this year goes really well.

At this rate I won’t be disappointed with a season where we have say 10-11 wins and finish with a percentage around the 100 mark. That’s a massive improvement on this year and shows a team heading in the right direction that could add Smith and maybe a positional need FA and start to really contend.

All this said I don’t think people saying we will play finals next season are crazy or silly optimists etc - just a difference of opinion on where this rebuild is presently at is all.

no no, forget all that. What I meant was in the face of no actual 2024 results, you're being conservative, not realistic.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

no no, forget all that. What I meant was in the face of no actual 2024 results, you're being conservative, not realistic.

Oh well now we are talking semantics - I guess you're right. Carry on!