Preview Hawks v Cats - ins, outs and general prognostications

[diggydig]

Goo as an EMG is suspect. Smells like a late change is on the agenda.

In support of this theory is the article on Hawks website ("Round 15 team") which states:

"Guerra (back) and Bailey (knee soreness) missed last week’s win over Brisbane but return to bolster the Hawks as they turn to experience for the blockbuster against the Cats."​

​

Be interesting to see who misses if Goo does come in: Whitecross is in Goo's spot on the ground, but is faster though not as good a kick. Simpkin is another obvious option, but we need his run. Duryea is the obvious option, but I this his speed will be critical. If the cats are going to do us, they will have to get big contributions from their small forwards; can't see the big guys doing it for them this time.

 

[Flukey!]

F$&&&& I'm so sick of this Shyte.. Sam Newman and Billy always cockahoot when they play us... It's so embarrassing that we can't beat this mob that we beat with ease in a GF!!!
Come on FFS end this BS once and for all!!!!

Why do you watch that crap?
You know exactly what those two clowns will dish up each week.

 

[macdaddio]

Why do you watch that crap?
You know exactly what those two clowns will dish up each week.

Can't help my self I'm addicted to it... Just can't wait to finish this mob of and see what those two have to say next week!!

 

[Matt Stevic]

Can't help my self I'm addicted to it... Just can't wait to finish this mob of and see what those two have to say next week!!

Mate don't bother with that shit show, my brother (also a Hawk) is hooked for some reason but I can't explain it.

The NRL footy show on the other hand is brilliant

 

[Stratton_Gun]

Geelong team R1 changes.

Out: Rivers, Varcoe, Smedts, West, Chapman, Horlin-Smith

In: Guthrie, Corey, Simpson, Kelly, Stringer

You could probably say our outs are about on par with our ins.

Out comes a decent Melbourne backman, an outside speedster, a young utility, a good second ruckman, a lethal forward and a solid young mid.

In comes a reliable young defender, two hard-bodied and experienced midfielders, a promising number 1 ruck and a quiet but flashy young mid.

Important matchups all over the ground...One of your many in form forwards in Roughead vs Taylor, Thunt vs Mitchell, Hawkins vs Lake, Jesus this will be a hell of a game.

Hawthorn defense vs Geelong forwardline.

With the addition of Lake to an already top tier backline, that could easily be the gap bridged...what would usually be a tiny 2 pt margin between the 2 sides, could favour Hawthorn majorly. At the same time though, Geelong have one of the best goal spreads in the competition, and don't need Hawkins (Lake's certain opponent) to be firing to win. I think this contest really depends on our forward setup. Usually we would be bombing it hopelessly to Hawkins and praying for a mark...last week we completely changed form and left Hawkins to be a decoy while midfielders kicked the majority of our score. If we can lock the ball in our 50 and bring the defensive pressure we did v Freo, I would have Geelong marginally in front. Also Birchall is a big loss, and if we can expose this then all the better for us. But not knowing what the hell to expect, I'm going to have to say the Hawks should win this.

Hawthorn midfield vs Geelong midfield.

Two of the hardest midfields going around. Sewell and Mitchell are coming off blistering form, and it will be interesting to see how Hodge fares against us. Thunt has a big job on Mitchell, and he isn't in his best form coming off of an injury, but he found something close to it last week. I think Mitchell will win that matchup with relative ease, but wouldn't be surprised if he was kept to 21 touches at the same time. Speaking of tagging, Selwood was held by Crowley last week, and hasn't been supporting the midfield load at all as of late. The only stats he has been consistent in all year are clearances and tackles. He's in a pretty bad kink of form, but I think this is the type of game where he will lift. Besides him, we had Christensen with the game of his career (and this will incidentally be his 50th game) with 36 disposals, Duncan with 29 disposals, Kelly and Stokes with 27, Bartel with 24 and Corey with 22. Mackie also spent time in the midfield, gathering 27 touches. Last week was by far the most powerful and dominant I have seen our midfield since 2009, and we didn't have SJ. Can we keep it up? Probably not for long, they all played out of their skins, but I think we can still bring it up to the mighty Hawks brigade. We are thriving in contested possessions and clearances under Dawson Simpson's tapwork, and there is no better team in the competition to use as a measuring stick than the Hawks. I will put the Cats slightly ahead IF they can maintain top defensive pressure for 4 quarters and IF they are not too battered from last week. Also IF Daws can perform for the 4 quarters. Big, big ifs though.

Hawthorn rucks vs Geelong rucks.
I think Geelong may bring in Vardy or West, which will help for support at the bounces. If Bailey plays alongside Ceglar, that'll be huge, but I'd probably have Hawthorn slightly in front regardless. Simpson has been great in the ruck vs Brissy for 3 quarters and Fremantle in a great 4 quarter breakthrough, but he is a bit too inexperienced. In fact this will be his first ever game against a Vic team, just always seems to be brought in against interstate teams. Hale is capable of mauling teams around the ground, and I expect he will do a fair bit of damage to us up forward. Vardy/West if brought in are great marking targets up forward, which could free up Podsiadly who could drag Gibson further down the ground. Simpson is a bit hopeless around the ground, just isn't composed enough to grip the ball properly which is worrying. Not quite used to AFL level yet, but most big men take time. Hawks win this contest by a bit.

Hawthorn forwardline v Geelong backline.
Every player playing in these positions is in white hot form. Hawks have Buddy, Roughead, Breust and Savage who all kicked 3+ goals last week. Gunston is in handy form too and could danger us in a huge way. Not sure if Rioli will play, but if he does, that only adds to our list of worries. Hawks have far and beyond, the best forwardline in the competition. By unmeasurable lengths, you can't even BEGIN to compare them to the next best forwardline. They are unbelievably good. Our defense ON THEIR DAY is the backline equivalent, and for some reason we match up very well on them. I can see Lonergan taking Buddy as always. Lonners has been pretty average for the past 2 years, but always manages to curve Buddy's impact. Taylor will take Roughead as usual and that should be a contest to behold. Guthrie or Jhunt, who both did well on Walters last week, will take Breust and push up the ground. Enright can play on Savage and be quite efficient off half back. Mackie will most likely rotate onto Buddy/Roughead/the resting ruck while Lonergan/Taylor take breathers, and peel off for a stint on the wing. Bartel and Podsiadly will almost certainly move down the ground at some stage, so expect to see them taking a number of defensive marks. Overall this is a very hard contest to judge, but I think I have the Cats backline JUST ahead...IF they bring their best to the table, and nothing short of their best.

My prediction: ___ by 12 pts. I honestly don't know which team to put. I can see both sides playing it tight for 3 and a half quarters and then kicking away late in the last. I'm absolutely psyched for the game.

Now I just need to get tickets.if you can help me get tickets or figure out how to, please don't hesitate to inbox me!

good luck!

You!!
I hope you realize the havoc you have created on the GD Board. There are a few things you need to clear up

Edit: I know you don't mean that good luck

 

[Catgirl]

You!!
I hope you realize the havoc you have created on the GD Board. There are a few things you need to clear up

Edit: I know you don't mean that good luck

I'm lost????

 

[jpzhawk]

A lot has been talked about in regards to us now having Lake to combat the Hawkins influence which is fair enough, and that it will help free up Gibbo a bit in doing so.
I know we don't have birchall and his run from the back half will be missed to a degree but I think we can cover that with Burgoyne and Mitch.
I just wanted to add 2 points that will be a vital difference.

1 - This time around we also have a fully fit and firing Luke Hodge.
2 - Ben Stratton is also playing his best football.

This in combo with Lake and Gibbo is pretty significant.

Having said all that, it's the midfield that is the key.
Our centre clearance work has not been great and last time Selwood smashed us in the 3rd and won the game for them.
Selwood and Bartell.. We must shut them down or keep them quiet. It's vital.

 

[Flamin Joe]

Having said all that, it's the midfield that is the key.
Our centre clearance work has not been great and last time Selwood smashed us in the 3rd and won the game for them.
Selwood and Bartell.. We must shut them down or keep them quiet. It's vital.

To be fair, Geelong haven't exactly been setting the world on fire with clearances either. In fact there was a good article recently talking about how clearances aren't the be all and end all of winning games. Both Hawthorn and Geelong this year have been beaten in clearances in many games but still found a way to win. In clearances we're currently ranked 7th, Geelong 17th.

Statistically it appears we have the edge over Geelong in the middle, but it's what you do with the ball once you have it which counts. Interestingly, Hawthorn and Geelong are ranked number 1 and 2 respectively for marks inside of 50. I think that just goes to prove how big of an in Lake is from the Round 1 side. We really need to be on top of our game down back to have a chance.

A day a bit to go and the nerves are building....

 

[dazbroncos]

To be fair, Geelong haven't exactly been setting the world on fire with clearances either. In fact there was a good article recently talking about how clearances aren't the be all and end all of winning games. Both Hawthorn and Geelong this year have been beaten in clearances in many games but still found a way to win. In clearances we're currently ranked 7th, Geelong 17th.

Statistically it appears we have the edge over Geelong in the middle, but it's what you do with the ball once you have it which counts. Interestingly, Hawthorn and Geelong are ranked number 1 and 2 respectively for marks inside of 50. I think that just goes to prove how big of an in Lake is from the Round 1 side. We really need to be on top of our game down back to have a chance.

A day a bit to go and the nerves are building....

Spot on here, especially with us. Our clearances have been crap partly by circumstance ( no #1 Ruck but now Simpson is filling that void farily well) and partly design (more of an emphasis on getting the ball back after the clearance by forcing a rushed possession from the clearance to create the turnover) which has been going very well.

I think with our first use getting better and maintaining the pressure at the clearances we dont get to force the turnover, we have a strong shot.

Not so worried about Cyril (first game back and he will tire regardless of how much track work he has done) as I am about Roughy, Gunston,Hill, Hodge and Mitchell. Buddy we can cover with a group but its when one of the other lot get off the chain it will go pear shaped.

Still, Cats by the smallest of margins.

Go Catters

 

[macdaddio]

Cats should be very very afraid if we lose tomorrow as they wouldn't want to be playing us in the GF knowing we will be hungry to end the curse and the GF would be the best place to do it!!

 

[Agent Smith]

Cats should be very very afraid if we lose tomorrow as they wouldn't want to be playing us in the GF knowing we will be hungry to end the curse and the GF would be the best place to do it!!

Maybe, but if Carlton somehow got on a roll and surged into a GF against us, would we be nervous? Or supremely confident? State of mind is an amazing thing. I'm sure Cat's players go into games against us with the same confidence that our players bring to Blues games.

If we physically and mentally rip them a new one on Saturday night, I can promise you that swagger they carry will be completely eradicated if/when we then played off in a GF.

 

[macdaddio]

Maybe, but if Carlton somehow got on a roll and surged into a GF against us, would we be nervous? Or supremely confident? State of mind is an amazing thing. I'm sure Cat's players go into games against us with the same confidence that our players bring to Blues games.

If we physically and mentally rip them a new one on Saturday night, I can promise you that swagger they carry will be completely eradicated if/when we then played off in a GF.

I think the difference is that ever since we beat them in that GF no one has given us credit for the win but to say Geelong lost it we didn't win it. So that plus the fact we hadn't beaten them since plus the whole Kennett curse would be enough to drive them.
Blues losing streak againts us is not realy the same as there is no media hype and there wasn't a final or a GF involved in any of the matches.

 

[dazbroncos]

Maybe, but if Carlton somehow got on a roll and surged into a GF against us, would we be nervous? Or supremely confident? State of mind is an amazing thing. I'm sure Cat's players go into games against us with the same confidence that our players bring to Blues games.

If we physically and mentally rip them a new one on Saturday night, I can promise you that swagger they carry will be completely eradicated if/when we then played off in a GF.

If we do lose on Sat and meet again in the GF ( Really long way out so lets acknowledge that for sure) but I would be certain that heading in to the last 1/4 of said GF if we started to come back against you guys there would be demons in your blokes head and belief in ours.... 10 losses like that dont just evapourate from ones mind... just as our belief wont be gone should we drop this one...

GO Catters

 

[JustKickIt]

Can't help my self I'm addicted to it... Just can't wait to finish this mob of and see what those two have to say next week!!

"Hawthorn have only managed to beat Geelong once in the last 11 games, and Geelong were off that night and didnt have player X and Y and Z was playing with a broken leg" ?

"Hawthorn didnt really win..... Geelong lost it"

ETC.....

 

[MinerBoy]

A few people have forgotten that Geelong have just smashed a in form Freo.

Who were missing Barlow and Mundy to add to the injuries they already had. Over rated win. Freo will always struggle while they try to win games with 10 goals - especially against sides like the Hawks and Cats who can pile them on quickly. Add the home ground to the missing Freo players and Geelong had this game in the bag before it started.

 

[Brishawk]

Spot on here, especially with us. Our clearances have been crap partly by circumstance ( no #1 Ruck but now Simpson is filling that void farily well) and partly design (more of an emphasis on getting the ball back after the clearance by forcing a rushed possession from the clearance to create the turnover) which has been going very well.

I think with our first use getting better and maintaining the pressure at the clearances we dont get to force the turnover, we have a strong shot.

Not so worried about Cyril (first game back and he will tire regardless of how much track work he has done) as I am about Roughy, Gunston,Hill, Hodge and Mitchell. Buddy we can cover with a group but its when one of the other lot get off the chain it will go pear shaped.

Still, Cats by the smallest of margins.

Go Catters

Yes, you are not the only club which employs this tactic but it works well for you because even when the opposition gets a clean clearance you still have Taylor to mark the ball. The downside is if a team runs hot out of the centre you can get the Brisbane scenario. It won't happen often but it is always a risk when you concede the ball.

 

[Agent Smith]

If we do lose on Sat and meet again in the GF ( Really long way out so lets acknowledge that for sure) but I would be certain that heading in to the last 1/4 of said GF if we started to come back against you guys there would be demons in your blokes head and belief in ours.... 10 losses like that dont just evapourate from ones mind... just as our belief wont be gone should we drop this one...

GO Catters

Depends on the nature of the loss on Saturday... if it happens.

 

[Ram-Man]

The second match of the year played between the two sides ...

Round 19, 3 Aug 2012 MCG Hawthorn defeated by Geelong .. 116-118
Round 12, 11 Jun 2011 MCG Geelong defeats Hawthorn .. 88-83
Round 15, 10 Jul 2010 MCG Geelong defeats Hawthorn .. 85-83
Round 17, 25 Jul 2009 MCG Geelong defeats Hawthorn .. 99-98

- average winning margin of 2.5 points

 

[MinerBoy]

The second match of the year played between the two sides ...

Round 19, 3 Aug 2012 MCG Hawthorn defeated by Geelong .. 116-118
Round 12, 11 Jun 2011 MCG Geelong defeats Hawthorn .. 88-83
Round 15, 10 Jul 2010 MCG Geelong defeats Hawthorn .. 85-83
Round 17, 25 Jul 2009 MCG Geelong defeats Hawthorn .. 99-98

- average winning margin of 2.5 points

Round 15, 6 Jul 2013 MCG Hawthorn defeats Geelong .. 137-74

Average winning margin now 14.6 points

 

[raff23]

Some of the cats fans haven't seen alot of hawthorn this year clearly, saying their best is better than ours by a margin, we really need to dent these muppet's confidence when they play us so they start to fear playing us like it used to be. Onto the game we need to put some time into Motlop, Stokes and Christensen. Duckwood and Bartel aren't the only ones that can win the game for them. Should definitely put poppy onto Christensen so we at least get 2 ferocious bulls going at eachother. That bloke is a brilliant young player and we need to fight fire with fire here. Sav to run with Stokes as he can go with him around the ground and also beat him in the air (good mark), Sewell to take Duckwood and depending on where Bartel plants himself Hodge will take him. He will prime himself to not allow Bartel to take games away from us like he has constantly in the past, especially in the 2nd half, wherever Jimmy goes Hodgey goes, that simple.

 

[raff23]

Spot on here, especially with us. Our clearances have been crap partly by circumstance ( no #1 Ruck but now Simpson is filling that void farily well) and partly design (more of an emphasis on getting the ball back after the clearance by forcing a rushed possession from the clearance to create the turnover) which has been going very well.

I think with our first use getting better and maintaining the pressure at the clearances we dont get to force the turnover, we have a strong shot.

Not so worried about Cyril (first game back and he will tire regardless of how much track work he has done) as I am about Roughy, Gunston,Hill, Hodge and Mitchell. Buddy we can cover with a group but its when one of the other lot get off the chain it will go pear shaped.

Still, Cats by the smallest of margins.

Go Catters

Depends on whether or not we start him as the sub, or he plays 1 out in the goal square all game, doesn't involve a whole lot of running. You guys should expect something a little different this time, maybe a defensive tag on enright? he is your best match up for Cyril so it would be interesting if Clarko goes that way. I want to see Clarko outsmart the Cats for a change.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Cats should be very very afraid if we lose tomorrow as they wouldn't want to be playing us in the GF knowing we will be hungry to end the curse and the GF would be the best place to do it!!

If we lose tomorrow I expect they'll be less afraid than if we win.

The whole GF thing is a ruse. At the moment, we haven't beaten them in about 5 years and in a number of the games over that time, we've had the better team and been in winning positions.

It's a must win game.

 

[Bobby P]

Worst games of the year to watch always left feeling so shit. Lets hope the boys can get it donethis time, and by a big margin .

 

[xellis]

I think people on here are taking for granted just how important the poo man is for our forward line.......especially when we are coming up against a side that has an extremely talented and creative backline.

I don't fully agree with this. His pressure is amazing no doubt. But he doesn't get much of the ball, he's not kicking goals (only 6 this year) and he often makes terrible decisions under pressure. ie the flying kick out of the air that cost us the geelong game last year.

 

[raff23]

Worst games of the year to watch always left feeling so shit. Lets hope the boys can get it donethis time, and by a big margin .

It's actually a brilliant game to watch but i get your point. Ill be attending a party tomorrow night so wont be going, nor will be able to watch it properly on TV. I will be spewing if we get up and win and im not able to see it in the flesh as it happens. I guess the AFL site and the replay would have to do.