Hedging against a possible Saints loss.

[Armwarmer]

Okay so we're in a Grand Final. If we lose, I am going to absolutely shattered. With the disappointment of 1997 and the recent failures since 2004, I think I will actually get clinically depressed. I wish I could pay money to guarantee that we win, but unfortunately, you can't buy premierships.

So I've decided (like I did in the game against the dogs) to put money on our opposition. By putting a few hundred or so dollars on Geelong, at least if we lose, I'll be able to drink away my sorrows.

So this thread is for people to discuss the idea of betting on the opposition side to offset the pain of a loss, and also odds and stuff so we can find the best price possible for a Geelong win.

Sports bet has Geelong at 1.7 which seems like pretty shit odds imo. I would have hoped to be able to get 1.8 or 1.9 for them.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

I dont think Im gonna have any money left after paying for my ticket.

But will probably chuck $50 on the Cats to offset that loss if the worst occurs.

 

[underthestars]

now this must be about the saddest thread i've ever read.

 

[Plugger35]

Not for me.

It's all or nothing on a Saints win for me. I could never bring myself to tip or bet against the Saints. No amount of money would make me feel any better about losing anyway.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

now this must be about the saddest thread i've ever read.

As if. I'm sure many supporters chuck a few quid on the oppsite team on GF day. You win, you dont give a shit that you lost money. And if you lose, at least there's a tiny consolation.

Not that I'd want the Saints to lose even if I chucked every cent I have on the Cats.

 

[Kildonan]

I understand the principle here. To allay the disappointment of a loss, you bet on the the opponent - that way if you win the monetary loss is nothing by comparison, and if we lose the monetary gain is a bonus that lets you see a positive despite the loss. However the odds are way too skinny on Geelong to make it work effectively. You simply have to risk too much money to get a return that is big enough to do the trick.

I say save your money. If we lose then buy lots of your drug of choice (presumably alcohol) and go on a bender proportional to your pain. Just do it with someone responsible enough to stop you doing anything too stupid.

But why all this talk of - "if we lose" ? This is a time of celebrating actually making it into the Grand Final. Many of us will actually see it live. I know that I will remember this day for the rest of my life.

We're not all buying these Grand Final tickets thinking we'll lose, nor are we certain we'll win, we just want to be there if it turns out to be our day. I know how I would feel if it turned out we won the premiership and I had an opportunity to be there and didn't take it up.

If we lose I will be devastated, but I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.

 

[Rimmer]

The prize is priceless, making some money on betting on the opposition will only make a more miserable story to tell your grand children in years to come, and it will take away from some of the elation if you do win.

It is either the ultimate elation or a devastating disappointment you will carry with you for the rest of your lives.

Either way, Live the moment, believe in your team, wear your heart on your sleeve so you experience this to the full whatever happens.

Good luck

 

[Armwarmer]

now this must be about the saddest thread i've ever read.

why? hedging is extremely common in financial markets when huge equity is involved. for me, a stkilda premiership = huge equity.

I understand the principle here. To allay the disappointment of a loss, you bet on the the opponent - that way if you win the monetary loss is nothing by comparison, and if we lose the monetary gain is a bonus that lets you see a positive despite the loss. However the odds are way too skinny on Geelong to make it work effectively. You simply have to risk too much money to get a return that is big enough to do the trick.

I say save your money. If we lose then buy lots of your drug of choice (presumably alcohol) and go on a bender proportional to your pain. Just do it with someone responsible enough to stop you doing anything too stupid.

But why all this talk of - "if we lose" ? This is a time of celebrating actually making it into the Grand Final. Many of us will actually see it live. I know that I will remember this day for the rest of my life.

We're not all buying these Grand Final tickets thinking we'll lose, nor are we certain we'll win, we just want to be there if it turns out to be our day. I know how I would feel if it turned out we won the premiership and I had an opportunity to be there and didn't take it up.

If we lose I will be devastated, but I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.

good post Kildonan

I agree that $1.70 are a crappy price for Geelong. If I outlayed $500, I'd only be winning $350 in addition to my outlay. Maybe I put $1000?

I just can't bear to think what will happen if we lose. And it IS a possibility. I mean, yeah, I shouldn't be thinking about it, and I yeah, I should be relishing grand final week and all it entails, since it doesn't come often.

BUT, I think a hedging bet is kind of prudent... because I just think a loss would seriously have me wallowing in depression for weeks. Whereas, if we lose but I get hand in my ticket at the TAB and get $700 in profit, I might be able to shrug it off a little easier.

I don't know to be honest.

 

[Armwarmer]

The prize is priceless, making some money on betting on the opposition will only make a more miserable story to tell your grand children in years to come, and it will take away from some of the elation if you do win.

It is either the ultimate elation or a devastating disappointment you will carry with you for the rest of your lives.

Either way, Live the moment, believe in your team, wear your heart on your sleeve so you experience this to the full whatever happens.

Good luck

Good post. But to be honest, I don't think it will take away from the elation at all. Like, 0%. I might laugh at myself for betting against us, but there's no way I'd be anything but 100% stoked.

 

[ace_man]

ill be betting on a saints double i rekon ROO + SAINTS FLAG

confidance boys we are the best team all year we beat them earlier in the year and we will again

we will win the flag then ill have extra money to get smashed with ahaha

 

[AFaiL]

This is probabyl a good time to remind everyone to take it easy. If we happent to lose, you need to take care of yourself. If we win, do the same Just watch otu for bitter cats

Bugger putting money on the cats, no amount of money will ease the pain

POSITIVE THOUGHTS everyone

FQF

 

[The Punter]

I'm putting $500 on Geelong, and here's why: it's what I'm prepared to pay to see St Kilda win a premiership. No negativity attached - it's just the price I'm prepared to pay.

"What are you prepared to do?"

 

[numchuks]

Lol. great thread.

 

[vinum coupe]

I had an interest bet of $500 on the cats last year.
Didn't make me feel any worse about the loss.

Now winning the game and winning the bet is great as it was in 07.

Backing the hawks last year would not have made me feel any better.

But I have to say, the odds for StKilda look great

 

[krusden]

If we lose i will be gutted.

all the booze in the world will not help

having money on a cats win would not help.

 

[Armwarmer]

Geelong are $4.25 to win by 1-19 points, and $4.25 to win by 20-39 points.

I'm thinking of putting $300 on them to win from 1-19, and $200 to win from 20-39.

So if they win by 1-19, i collect 775 in profit, if they win by 20-39 I get 350.

I figure I'd rather skew my money towards a close victory for two reasons:

a) I think it's very likely it will be a close game.

b) if we get pounded, I'll have time before the siren to resign myself to the loss and won't feel as bad as I would if we went down by 1 point in a thriller.

 

[emblurr]

I recon it's a good idea

 

[The Punter]

I want to state unequivocally - my bet is not a mood contingency. I'll feel terrible if Geelong win.

It's my personal sacrifice to St Kilda's quest for a premiership.

And I made the bet at lunch time.

 

[Asitshouldbeplay]

Surely winning a few hundred dollar would not take away the pain of reaching the GF and losing. Put your cash on your side and have confidence in your teams ability to win on the big stage after their 22-2 record so far this year.

 

[Armwarmer]

I don't see the point of betting on my own side, when a grand final would a huge prize in itself.

Why would I care about winning a paltry few hundred when my side won its second premiership? Whereas, if the Saints lost, a few hundred bucks might make me feel SLIGHTLY better in that I'd be able to go on a little shopping spree.

 

[okeydoke7]

I hope the bloody players aren't heding for a possible saints loss!

 

[stats]

Most disappointing thread i have ever seen on a sports forum

If one of your son's were playing for the Sainters in the AFL GF would any of you have the balls to back against him and then tell him to his face what you were upto

This is your team the one that you support and follow through the good years and the dark years so when they rise to the pinnacle of who shall be the champions show some support not this crap about betting on the other side.

NOTHING is going to take away the gutted feeling of losing (1971 + 1997) believe me but then again nothing beats the absolute high you get from winning a GF and it will never go away ala 1966 (wasnt at the ground but listened to ever minute of it on the radio!)...its priceless.

As others have said, just keep your money for festivities during + after its all over and take in all that hype that your team has made possible for you to enjoy.

Carn the sainters this is OUR YEAR BOYS

 

[goodoldcats]

The only positive out of a st kilda win for me is seeing flake missing out on a medal and King getting one. especially after the way geelong treated a former captain

 

[John Bonney]

Surely the posts on this thread are purely academic?
Incidentally ,families of players aren't allowed to gamble on their games are they?

 

[just a line monkey]

Betting on Geelong if your a saints supporter: ****ing piss poor.

St.kilda Premiershpriceless