BlakeyNoFlakey
Brownlow Medallist
Get your thinking caps on. How will the Cats go this year?
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Preview How do you see the Cats 2024 Finals going?
- Thread starter BlakeyNoFlakey
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- Oct 14, 2012
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Head says.
Win one… lose 2
Heart says.
Win 3.
Gut feel.
Straight sets.
Win one… lose 2
Heart says.
Win 3.
Gut feel.
Straight sets.
- Jan 25, 2008
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Week 1 - 3-4 goal loss
Week 2 - 2-3 goal win (after going into the game as underdogs)
Week 3 - close first half and then lose by 6 goals (when we run out of gas)
Week 2 - 2-3 goal win (after going into the game as underdogs)
Week 3 - close first half and then lose by 6 goals (when we run out of gas)
I'll admit to being significantly influenced by the debacle we witnessed on Saturday night in the formulation of these numbers. Nevertheless, here's my assessment...
Win QF, lose PF: 10%
Lose QF, win SF, lose PF: 50%
Straight sets: 40%
And before anyone asks, yes, I really do believe that it is nigh on impossible that we reach the big dance from here. Given the players available for selection right now, our midfield is bottom six quality. And you simply don't make it all the way to the GF with a group like that in the engine room.
Win QF, lose PF: 10%
Lose QF, win SF, lose PF: 50%
Straight sets: 40%
And before anyone asks, yes, I really do believe that it is nigh on impossible that we reach the big dance from here. Given the players available for selection right now, our midfield is bottom six quality. And you simply don't make it all the way to the GF with a group like that in the engine room.
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
Depends entirely on week 1- IF we win, we could make a GF again. If we lose, I think straight sets.
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
The week’s rest will help no end, players like Danger, Duncan, Tuohy, Rohan, Stanley, JC., and the young blokes like DeK, Humphries, OH, Dempsey, Holmes….,THIS is the year to pinch a win against the odds. If we get smashed, I think straight sets this year.
- Jan 25, 2008
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I agree that the rest will help us significantly this year.
But one thing I have learnt over the years is to not read too much into the week 1 result and the impact on week 2.
Nearly every year, pundits fall in love with the teams that win in week 1 from the bottom half of the finals and predict straight sets exits for the teams that lost in week 1 in the upper half of the bracket. But it rarely plays out that way. The higher ranked loser has a very good record in week 2.
- Feb 12, 2017
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Flag!
Chinacats
Premium Platinum
- Sep 20, 2014
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Depend who we play….. but if we lose week 1 then play Brisbane in a semi I’ll be with Whateley…. That Brisbane are better than Geelong.
catempire
Premium Platinum
0-6, 0-6
Im quietly optimistic - the planets have to align of course , but Geel have got some chance for another Premiership
Youve got to look at the opposition , Bulldogs recently lost by a combined 100 pts at the Ade oval to the v2 SA clubs , Syd had a deplorable patch of form , worst in history of a no 1 club , Pt Ade arent good enough , currently got Evans Sav and Narkle playing for them , Carlton if they make it have got stacks of injurys , and Bris dead set choked on the weekend against Coll
Geel have got a small window of opportunity here , the key is Dangerfield , if he has a sensational Sept , conversely if he isnt playing , Geel then are a trillion to 1 , they have absolutely no hope
Youve got to look at the opposition , Bulldogs recently lost by a combined 100 pts at the Ade oval to the v2 SA clubs , Syd had a deplorable patch of form , worst in history of a no 1 club , Pt Ade arent good enough , currently got Evans Sav and Narkle playing for them , Carlton if they make it have got stacks of injurys , and Bris dead set choked on the weekend against Coll
Geel have got a small window of opportunity here , the key is Dangerfield , if he has a sensational Sept , conversely if he isnt playing , Geel then are a trillion to 1 , they have absolutely no hope
Overall you're right, although from 2016 onwards it's become much more common to see straight sets exits. Hawthorn (twice), Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Melbourne (twice) off the top of my head. Almost one a year on average. Geelong, with an excellent semi final record, helped steady the ship. Take Geelong out and that semi final record for top teams has actually been pretty dodgy since they introduced the pre finals bye.
I was optimistic before Saturday night.
But that diabolical embarrassment of a second half has me thinking we won’t be winning any finals this year unfortunately.
But that diabolical embarrassment of a second half has me thinking we won’t be winning any finals this year unfortunately.
Wot you said
Since we have to play the other likely finalists, I'd say we could go all the way and it wouldn't surprise. Nothing would surprise me this season. Two weeks ago someone on here was saying Brisbane were deservedly the favorites. Now look at 'em. Rabble. 
Sydney, from invincible to easy-beats. Carlton - goneski. Port??? GWS, average.
Bulldogs and the Hawks are the latest. Watch them fall apart (most likely) over the next week or two.
Sydney, from invincible to easy-beats. Carlton - goneski. Port??? GWS, average.
Bulldogs and the Hawks are the latest. Watch them fall apart (most likely) over the next week or two.
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
True that, but this year, we have shown brittleness after tough games. Our oldies are so near the end, and our youngies are not quite up to the standard required to be premiers imho, if their older teammates are not firing.
Klink
Team Captain
I agree.
- Sep 26, 2017
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We tend to win the first finals going by stats…it’ll be the prem that will be lost sadly unless we come up against a side that’s in terrible finals form …something like Brisbane at the MCG
But in quietly confident of the first week
But in quietly confident of the first week
Klink
Team Captain
It would be huge if we win in Sydney or Adelaide week one..
It would set us up perfectly with an MCG prelim.
- Aug 18, 2018
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Last edited:
- Aug 18, 2018
- 30,093
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I'll amend to "relatively quickly"
