![](https://images.bigfootymedia.com/icons/mobile-bullets/geelong.png)
BlakeyNoFlakey
Brownlow Medallist
Get your thinking caps on. How will the Cats go this year?
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
LIVE: GWS Giants v Brisbane Lions - 7:30PM Sat
Squiggle tips Lions at 65% chance -- What's your tip? -- Team line-ups »
Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Semi Finals
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
AFLW 2024 - Round 3 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
The week’s rest will help no end, players like Danger, Duncan, Tuohy, Rohan, Stanley, JC., and the young blokes like DeK, Humphries, OH, Dempsey, Holmes….,THIS is the year to pinch a win against the odds. If we get smashed, I think straight sets this year.I'll admit to being significantly influenced by the debacle we witnessed on Saturday night in the formulation of these numbers. Nevertheless, here's my assessment...
Win QF, lose PF: 10%
Lose QF, win SF, lose PF: 50%
Straight sets: 40%
And before anyone asks, yes, I really do believe that it is nigh on impossible that we reach the big dance from here. Given the players available for selection right now, our midfield is bottom six quality. And you simply don't make it all the way to the GF with a group like that in the engine room.
I agree that the rest will help us significantly this year.The week’s rest will help no end, players like Danger, Duncan, Tuohy, Rohan, Stanley, JC., and the young blokes like DeK, Humphries, OH, Dempsey, Holmes….,THIS is the year to pinch a win against the odds. If we get smashed, I think straight sets this year.
Overall you're right, although from 2016 onwards it's become much more common to see straight sets exits. Hawthorn (twice), Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Melbourne (twice) off the top of my head. Almost one a year on average. Geelong, with an excellent semi final record, helped steady the ship. Take Geelong out and that semi final record for top teams has actually been pretty dodgy since they introduced the pre finals bye.I agree that the rest will help us significantly this year.
But one thing I have learnt over the years is to not read too much into the week 1 result and the impact on week 2.
Nearly every year, pundits fall in love with the teams that win in week 1 from the bottom half of the finals and predict straight sets exits for the teams that lost in week 1 in the upper half of the bracket. But it rarely plays out that way. The higher ranked loser has a very good record in week 2.
Wot you saidIm quietly optimistic - the planets have to align of course , but Geel have got some chance for another Premiership
Youve got to look at the opposition , Bulldogs recently lost by a combined 100 pts at the Ade oval to the v2 SA clubs , Syd had a deplorable patch of form , worst in history of a no 1 club , Pt Ade arent good enough , currently got Evans Sav and Narkle playing for them , Carlton if they make it have got stacks of injurys , and Bris dead set choked on the weekend against Coll
Geel have got a small window of opportunity here , the key is Dangerfield , if he has a sensational Sept , conversely if he isnt playing , Geel then are a trillion to 1 , they have absolutely no hope
True that, but this year, we have shown brittleness after tough games. Our oldies are so near the end, and our youngies are not quite up to the standard required to be premiers imho, if their older teammates are not firing.I agree that the rest will help us significantly this year.
But one thing I have learnt over the years is to not read too much into the week 1 result and the impact on week 2.
Nearly every year, pundits fall in love with the teams that win in week 1 from the bottom half of the finals and predict straight sets exits for the teams that lost in week 1 in the upper half of the bracket. But it rarely plays out that way. The higher ranked loser has a very good record in week 2.
I agree.I'll admit to being significantly influenced by the debacle we witnessed on Saturday night in the formulation of these numbers. Nevertheless, here's my assessment...
Win QF, lose PF: 10%
Lose QF, win SF, lose PF: 50%
Straight sets: 40%
And before anyone asks, yes, I really do believe that it is nigh on impossible that we reach the big dance from here. Given the players available for selection right now, our midfield is bottom six quality. And you simply don't make it all the way to the GF with a group like that in the engine room.
It would be huge if we win in Sydney or Adelaide week one..We tend to win the first finals going by stats…it’ll be the prem that will be lost sadly unless we come up against a side that’s in terrible finals form …something like Brisbane at the MCG
But in quietly confident of the first week
Get your thinking caps on. How will the Cats go this year?
The shortest possible time will be 4 hours of viewing spread out over an 8 day period.Quickly
I'll amend to "relatively quickly"The shortest possible time will be 4 hours of viewing spread out over an 8 day period.
That's not quick.
Only an EF loser can go quickly.