Prediction How many games will the AFC win in 2025?

How many games will the AFC win in 2025?


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Given its preseason, I thought as an exercise I would go ahead and try and predict which games in the H&A season we may win.

Interestingly I arrived at 13W for 2025 which included 4 losses at AO, the line given by the bookies is 12.5W. While 13W was enough to make the 8 in 2024, it should be noted that the Pies ended up with same premiership counts as 8th place, ie 12W and 2D but missed out on percentage.

Under Nicks in 2024 we lost 7 "home" games, 4 in 2023, 7 in 2022 and 2021 and 8 in 2020.

AFC 2025 Fixture

RoundDateLocationHome TeamAway TeamResult
1
16/03/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsSt KildaW
2
22/03/25​
MCGEssendonAdelaide CrowsW
3
30/03/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsNorth MelbourneW
4
5/04/25​
People First StadiumGold Coast SUNSAdelaide CrowsL
5
10/04/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGeelong CatsL
6
19/04/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGWS GIANTSW
7
25/04/25​
Optus StadiumFremantleAdelaide CrowsL
8
3/05/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsCarltonW
9
10/05/25​
Adelaide OvalPort AdelaideAdelaide CrowsW
10
17/05/25​
MCGCollingwoodAdelaide CrowsL
11
25/05/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsWest Coast EaglesW
12
31/05/25​
SCGSydney SwansAdelaide CrowsL
13
6/06/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsBrisbane LionsL
14
13/06/25​
UTAS StadiumHawthornAdelaide CrowsL
16
28/06/25​
MCGRichmondAdelaide CrowsW
17
4/07/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsMelbourneW
18
11/07/25​
Mars StadiumWestern BulldogsAdelaide CrowsL
19
18/07/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGold Coast SUNSW
20
25/07/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsPort AdelaideW
21
1/08/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsHawthornL
22
8/08/25​
Optus StadiumWest Coast EaglesAdelaide CrowsW
23
15/08/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsCollingwoodL
24
22/08/25​
Marvel StadiumNorth MelbourneAdelaide CrowsW
TOTAL SEASON WINS13
 

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With this year still fresh in my mind I pessimistically have us going 2-7 before finishing 10-13.

Most of the first 7 that I have as losses are definitely winnable but just the kind of games we drop, so if we somehow jag 3 or 4 of those you're looking at 13-14 wins. Realistically I think 11-12 wins.
 
Last edited:
With this year still fresh in my mind I pessimistically have us going 2-7 before finishing 10-13.

Most of the first 7 that I have as losses are definitely winnable but just the kind of games we drop, so if we somehow jag 3 or 4 of those you're looking at 13-14 wins. Realistically I think 11-12 wins.
Im choosing to be optimistic with our recruits. If we fail its because our youth hasnt developed like it needs to, which would be catastrophic for the entire rebuild - think Thilthorpe, Rachele, Soligo, Michalanney, Worrell, Murray, Keane, Curtin, Rankine - these players should all start to produce now.
 
Given its preseason, I thought as an exercise I would go ahead and try and predict which games in the H&A season we may win.

Interestingly I arrived at 13W for 2025 which included 4 losses at AO, the line given by the bookies is 12.5W. While 13W was enough to make the 8 in 2024, it should be noted that the Pies ended up with same premiership counts as 8th place, ie 12W and 2D but missed out on percentage.

Under Nicks in 2024 we lost 7 "home" games, 4 in 2023, 7 in 2022 and 2021 and 8 in 2020.

AFC 2025 Fixture

RoundDateLocationHome TeamAway TeamResult
1
16/03/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsSt KildaW
2
22/03/25​
MCGEssendonAdelaide CrowsW
3
30/03/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsNorth MelbourneW
4
5/04/25​
People First StadiumGold Coast SUNSAdelaide CrowsL
5
10/04/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGeelong CatsL
6
19/04/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGWS GIANTSW
7
25/04/25​
Optus StadiumFremantleAdelaide CrowsL
8
3/05/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsCarltonW
9
10/05/25​
Adelaide OvalPort AdelaideAdelaide CrowsW
10
17/05/25​
MCGCollingwoodAdelaide CrowsL
11
25/05/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsWest Coast EaglesW
12
31/05/25​
SCGSydney SwansAdelaide CrowsL
13
6/06/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsBrisbane LionsL
14
13/06/25​
UTAS StadiumHawthornAdelaide CrowsL
16
28/06/25​
MCGRichmondAdelaide CrowsW
17
4/07/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsMelbourneW
18
11/07/25​
Mars StadiumWestern BulldogsAdelaide CrowsL
19
18/07/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGold Coast SUNSW
20
25/07/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsPort AdelaideW
21
1/08/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsHawthornL
22
8/08/25​
Optus StadiumWest Coast EaglesAdelaide CrowsW
23
15/08/25​
Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsCollingwoodL
24
22/08/25​
Marvel StadiumNorth MelbourneAdelaide CrowsW
TOTAL SEASON WINS13
Thats pretty reasonable. We have a good draw. How do we get Mars stadium. :sick: I agree with that. I just see a nicks factor may reduce it sadly.
 
I’ll stick with my 16 or everyone out
If we don't win a final, Nicks can go.

But we need a decent board turnover too... more than just 1 change, regardless as a refresh.
 

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14-9 record... so long as ROB not missing for significant number of games.

If we don't get off to a strong start, my prediction will be miles off!
Injuries, suspensions and playing teams at the right time, will go a long way to determining our Final 8 chances.

Any game or games in particular you think Ive got it wrong in terms of "pencil" in a win or loss?
 
Much like last year I think we'll know early if we are going to be any good or not.

Last year I flagged Round 1 vs GC as the litmus test that would tell us instantly how our season was.

Next season I think both Round 2 vs Essendon and Round 4 vs Gold Coast will tell us where we're at.

Honestly our first 6 games are all winnable if we're good enough so I tend to think that if we go into the Freo game with anything less than 4-2 record, then we'll most probably be missing the finals.

I put us down for 12 wins, despite having an easier draw this year I suspect that we'll lose some 50/50 games that we should have won and will miss the 8.
 
Injuries, suspensions and playing teams at the right time, will go a long way to determining our Final 8 chances.

Any game or games in particular you think Ive got it wrong in terms of "pencil" in a win or loss?
Had the same as you, but winning against Hawks at home.
 
14 Wins

Good draw helps us get off strong winning our first six games. Then we win 3 of the next six to go 9 and 3 heading into Round 13. Thyen we have a tough run and lose six in a row. bringing the tally to 9 wins and 8 losses. Then head back to Adelaide oval for 3 weeks plus a trip to perth for four wins on the trot. Before losing to Collingwood at home in round 23. A nice flogging of North Melbourne at Marvel in the final round to give us 14 wins and 5th spot and a home final.





Round
DateLocationHome TeamAway TeamResult
116/03/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsSt KildaW
222/03/25MCGEssendonAdelaide CrowsW
330/03/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsNorth MelbourneW
45/04/25People First StadiumGold Coast SUNSAdelaide CrowsW
510/04/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGeelong CatsW
619/04/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGWS GIANTSW
725/04/25Optus StadiumFremantleAdelaide CrowsL
83/05/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsCarltonW
910/05/25Adelaide OvalPort AdelaideAdelaide CrowsW
1017/05/25MCGCollingwoodAdelaide CrowsL
1125/05/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsWest Coast EaglesW
1231/05/25SCGSydney SwansAdelaide CrowsL
136/06/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsBrisbane LionsL
1413/06/25UTAS StadiumHawthornAdelaide CrowsL
1628/06/25MCGRichmondAdelaide CrowsL
174/07/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsMelbourneL
1811/07/25Mars StadiumWestern BulldogsAdelaide CrowsL
1918/07/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGold Coast SUNSW
2025/07/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsPort AdelaideW
211/08/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsHawthornW
228/08/25Optus StadiumWest Coast EaglesAdelaide CrowsW
2315/08/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsCollingwoodL
2422/08/25Marvel StadiumNorth MelbourneAdelaide CrowsW
 
14 Wins

Good draw helps us get off strong winning our first six games. Then we win 3 of the next six to go 9 and 3 heading into Round 13. Thyen we have a tough run and lose six in a row. bringing the tally to 9 wins and 8 losses. Then head back to Adelaide oval for 3 weeks plus a trip to perth for four wins on the trot. Before losing to Collingwood at home in round 23. A nice flogging of North Melbourne at Marvel in the final round to give us 14 wins and 5th spot and a home final.





Round
DateLocationHome TeamAway TeamResult
116/03/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsSt KildaW
222/03/25MCGEssendonAdelaide CrowsW
330/03/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsNorth MelbourneW
45/04/25People First StadiumGold Coast SUNSAdelaide CrowsW
510/04/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGeelong CatsW
619/04/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGWS GIANTSW
725/04/25Optus StadiumFremantleAdelaide CrowsL
83/05/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsCarltonW
910/05/25Adelaide OvalPort AdelaideAdelaide CrowsW
1017/05/25MCGCollingwoodAdelaide CrowsL
1125/05/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsWest Coast EaglesW
1231/05/25SCGSydney SwansAdelaide CrowsL
136/06/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsBrisbane LionsL
1413/06/25UTAS StadiumHawthornAdelaide CrowsL
1628/06/25MCGRichmondAdelaide CrowsL
174/07/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsMelbourneL
1811/07/25Mars StadiumWestern BulldogsAdelaide CrowsL
1918/07/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsGold Coast SUNSW
2025/07/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsPort AdelaideW
211/08/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsHawthornW
228/08/25Optus StadiumWest Coast EaglesAdelaide CrowsW
2315/08/25Adelaide OvalAdelaide CrowsCollingwoodL
2422/08/25Marvel StadiumNorth MelbourneAdelaide CrowsW
Thats some roller coaster of a season
 

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Prediction How many games will the AFC win in 2025?

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