Prediction How many games will the AFC win in 2025?

[Doctor B]

By my count, only Swans and Collingwood are yet to be beaten by Matthew Nicks as coach.

(He did win 7 games against Collingwood as a player, however...)

Played Collingwood 7 times for 0 wins.
Sydney 6 times for 0 wins.
Lions 7 times for 1 win.
Essendon 6 times for 1 win.
Geelong 6 times for 1 win.
Melbourne 6 times for 1 win.
Freo 5 times for 1 win.
Richmond 5 times for 1 win.

His best season was 2023, 11 wins 12 losses.

We need to make the 8, 13 wins at an absolute minimum.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Played Collingwood 7 times for 0 wins.
Sydney 6 times for 0 wins.
Lions 7 times for 1 win.
Essendon 6 times for 1 win.
Geelong 6 times for 1 win.
Melbourne 6 times for 1 win.
Freo 5 times for 1 win.
Richmond 5 times for 1 win.

His best season was 2023, 11 wins 12 losses.

We need to make the 8, 13 wins at an absolute minimum.

He's a bit unlucky to have 8 bogey teams

 

[Hinkstuff]

11.5 wins finishing 9th but with a much higher % than 8th

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

We should win most of our home games, Collingwood and the away showdown the most obvious hard ones for me, and nicks is vulnerable to the hawks game style.

There’s a few games where should/could win on paper that I have not counted, 13 should be the minimum.

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	50/50
3	30/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	W
6	19/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	W
7	25/04/25	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	L
10	17/05/25	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	50/50
13	6/06/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	W
14	13/06/25	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	50/50
22	8/08/25	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	50/50
24	22/08/25	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	13

 

[footy4ever]

Surely we win a Collingwood game next year

This. Absolutely.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Rather than allocating matches as win/loss or 50/50, I find it more accurate to rate the probability of winning each game.

For example, Crows v Power 0.5, Crows v North at home 0.9, Crows v Freo in Perth 0.3.

Using this system I have used on 13.2 wins. This is slightly above our Sportsbet odds that predicts that we will finish 10th.

 

[kirky]

Rather than allocating matches as win/loss or 50/50, I find it more accurate to rate the probability of winning each game.

For example, Crows v Power 0.5, Crows v North at home 0.9, Crows v Freo in Perth 0.3.

Using this system I have used on 13.2 wins. This is slightly above our Sportsbet odds that predicts that we will finish 10th.

Nicks can’t survive if we finish 10th with say 11 wins it means we are two seasons later and yet in the same position as 2023.

That is not going to be acceptable at all in his 6th season.

Who is in our first round team is going to say a lot imo.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Surely we win a Collingwood game next year

Another <6 point loss.

 

[GreyCrow]

Who is in our first round team is going to say a lot imo.

Have to agree

You would think given fitness that all 3 of Peatling , ANB and Cummins would be first up

Prioritising Curtin would be next

Thats 4 ''new'' faces from Round 1 last year

If not then yes he should be marched out game 1

 

[kirky]

Have to agree

You would think given fitness that all 3 of Peatling , ANB and Cummins would be first up

Prioritising Curtin would be next

Thats 4 ''new'' faces from Round 1 last year

If not then yes he should be marched out game 1

I have no doubt those will be in, the bigger issue is who they replace.

That is the bigger question.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Nicks can’t survive if we finish 10th with say 11 wins it means we are two seasons later and yet in the same position as 2023.

That is not going to be acceptable at all in his 6th season.

Who is in our first round team is going to say a lot imo.

I understand your logic but imho
Bottom six = Nicks gone
Top six = Nicks stays
Middle six = not sure.
It will be depend on injuries, how we finish the season yada, yada, yada.

 

[PCORF]

Another <6 point loss.

Always has seem to have been the script.

Save for McLeod's crazy boundary goal in 2005.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

They need to make the right selection calls in the midfield and half back.

If we’re playing Laird HB and we don’t settle on a midfield rotation then I expect we won’t play finals

 

[GROTTO]

Have to agree

You would think given fitness that all 3 of Peatling , ANB and Cummins would be first up

Prioritising Curtin would be next

Thats 4 ''new'' faces from Round 1 last year

If not then yes he should be marched out game 1

Good post, Im glad you raised the new faces comment about our R1 team in 2025 compared to 2024.

Its actually looking much better as IIRC we were also missing Tex, TT and Curtin.

Peatling, ANB, Cummings, Draper are all big improvements to that R1 team.

7 starting 18 players on the ground, dramatically makes a huge difference.

 

[Golumless]

The 2 wins by 2 points last season were games we should have lost with the team still finishing 15th with 6 wins.

The counter argument is you should also win every game under 2 goals as by that point, a team deserves both results.

That was eight wins left on the table by my count.

2-8 is really a "deservedly finished bottom 4" record.

 

[PCORF]

Why I picked us to win 11 games.

There is two ways, depends on how the ball bounces, depends on everything. But I think we will win and lose most of our games as expected.

We have surprised everyone in the past (examples 1993, 1997, 2012, 2015) and disappointed everyone too (examples 1994, 1996, 2013, 2024).

2025 Adelaide will be middle of the road. Win the close ones and we're a chance at finals. Lose them and we have no chance. There are many other factors, personal fitness, injuries, and so much more.