Opinion Is father-son access going to heavily dictate the next decade of premiers?

[LukeParkerno1]

It's relevant to highlight that it's not about one pick or player, it's the stacking that has the biggest influence so I think including him as a F/S is appropriate. He's not the showpiece of the point, but he's in the example as he was cheaper than he would have been which is what it's all about. Discounts all add up.

He was worth exactly as he way. The other two were way unders though! Not the only club and they will fix the mess this off season and everyone will be happier.

 

[Juddernaut08]

GAJ and Hawkins as F/S players didn't exactly hurt Geelong's premiership aspirations though.

Nor has Moore and Daicos x 2 hurt Collingwoods, especially given they got Daicos in that draft they'd completely ****ed their list and had to offload Grundy, Treloar and Stephenson for peanuts.

When the key to a successful list by and large is nailing a few drafts in a row, getting guaranteed access to high-end players helps that nicely.

Some clubs have had shocking luck with their F/S talent basically being rubbish, whereas others have had the good fortune to get some quality F/S players in a nice little block of time.

Compare that to say Essendon where we had Jobe Watson and Joe Daniher who were both very good players in their own right, but drafted a decade apart which meant it never really tipped the balance of the list significantly enough.

This is a good point. 1 father son or first rounder academy pick in your best 22 is probably about average.

It's only when all those advantages hit at once with say 2, 3 or 4 good players taken at a discount that it has much of an affect.

It's why Hawkins + Abletts was noticeable, it's why Moore + Daicos boys is noticeable...it's why GC 4 first rounders in one year is noticeable.

When are the proposed changes likely to take effect?

 

[geelong_crazy26]

GAJ and Hawkins as F/S players didn't exactly hurt Geelong's premiership aspirations though.

Nor has Moore and Daicos x 2 hurt Collingwoods, especially given they got Daicos in that draft they'd completely ****ed their list and had to offload Grundy, Treloar and Stephenson for peanuts.

When the key to a successful list by and large is nailing a few drafts in a row, getting guaranteed access to high-end players helps that nicely.

Some clubs have had shocking luck with their F/S talent basically being rubbish, whereas others have had the good fortune to get some quality F/S players in a nice little block of time.

Compare that to say Essendon where we had Jobe Watson and Joe Daniher who were both very good players in their own right, but drafted a decade apart which meant it never really tipped the balance of the list significantly enough.

Geelong drafted ablett as a father son who was rated roughly pick 18-30 range in his draft year, scarlett was rated a third rounder, and Hawkins was rated the no 1 pick.

Out of those 3 only two of them were top players during our flag years in ablett and scarlett.. we still managed to win 11 without ablett even.

We had something like 10-11 AA’s in that side. So to claim we were a dynasty team because of luck with a third and second rounder father son and a key forward in the infancy of his development is just not true

 

[Caligo]

Geelong drafted ablett as a father son who was rated roughly pick 18-30 range in his draft year, scarlett was rated a third rounder, and Hawkins was rated the no 1 pick.

Out of those 3 only two of them were top players during our flag years in ablett and scarlett.. we still managed to win 11 without ablett even.

We had something like 10-11 AA’s in that side. So to claim we were a dynasty team because of luck with a third and second rounder father son and a key forward in the infancy of his development is just not true

This argument has gone round and round many times but Nathan Ablett was the best junior key forward recruiters had seen in years (but had commitment issues) and many had gaj well within R1.

Having a consensus pick 1 for free is pretty huge though, and he is still a critical piece of your best 22.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Slightly off topic but how many father sons both won premiership?

Silvagni, Daicos's.........and?

Heaps actually.
Liam Picken (), Nick Davis () Reece Shaw ()
Hird, Ablett x 2, Jonathan Brown, Heath Shaw, Hawkins, Trav Cloke, Scarlett, Viney, Dustyn Fletcher, Ashley McIntosh, Ben Cousins, Libba, Mitch Morton, Josh Kennedy, Daicos X2, Darcy Moore, Tom Mitchell, Sean Dempster, Brett Ebert, Jed Bews, Lachie Hunter,

 

[geelong_crazy26]

This argument has gone round and round many times but Nathan Ablett was the best junior key forward recruiters had seen in years (but had commitment issues) and many had gaj well within R1.

Having a consensus pick 1 for free is pretty huge though, and he is still a critical piece of your best 22.

Are you quoting mick turner regarding Nathan?? Because he walked away from the TAC cup and played modewarre 4ths with his mates. Was not exactly high end draft worthy when we picked him.

Ablett I heard end first to mid second as he showed flashes of brilliance but was a flanker with low accumulation at the time. Maybe you heard different back then thought but that was my take.

Hawkins clear as daylight no1 pick.. but was not much of an influence till after 2011

 

[Caligo]

Heaps actually.
Liam Picken (), Nick Davis () Reece Shaw ()
Hird, Ablett x 2, Jonathan Brown, Heath Shaw, Hawkins, Trav Cloke, Scarlett, Viney, Dustyn Fletcher, Ashley McIntosh, Ben Cousins, Libba, Mitch Morton, Josh Kennedy, Daicos X2, Darcy Moore, Tom Mitchell, Sean Dempster, Brett Ebert, Jed Bews, Lachie Hunter,

By both he means both the father and the son won a flag. The vast majority of those the fathers didn't win one.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Heaps actually.
Liam Picken (), Nick Davis () Reece Shaw ()
Hird, Ablett x 2, Jonathan Brown, Heath Shaw, Hawkins, Trav Cloke, Scarlett, Viney, Dustyn Fletcher, Ashley McIntosh, Ben Cousins, Libba, Mitch Morton, Josh Kennedy, Daicos X2, Darcy Moore, Tom Mitchell, Sean Dempster, Brett Ebert, Jed Bews, Lachie Hunter,

You forget the name that started it all.

Barassi.

 

[Caligo]

Are you quoting mick turner regarding Nathan?? Because he walked away from the TAC cup and played modewarre 4ths with his mates. Was not exactly high end draft worthy when we picked him.

Ablett I heard end first to mid second as he showed flashes of brilliance but was a flanker with low accumulation at the time. Maybe you heard different back then thought but that was my take.

Hawkins clear as daylight no1 pick.. but was not much of an influence till after 2011

It wasn't just Mick Turner, but that is the famous quote from memory. There was a lot of talk at the time that Nathan was his father reborn. Even up in Sydney we were hearing about his immense talent, and what an astonishing turn of events that he skipped tac.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

By both he means both the father and the son won a flag. The vast majority of those the fathers didn't win one.

That whittles it down to Daicos X2, Shaw X2, Cloke, Silvagni, Kennedy, Ebert, McIntosh, Mitchell

 

[hoianbulldog]

Yep. 4 of em. 83, 86, 88 and 89. Then Josh in 2012.

Different clubs obviously.

Sorry, I was thinking GF Kennedy.

 

[hoianbulldog]

Priority access premiership players in the academy era (2013-)

Father-son (10)
2023: Darcy Moore, Nick Daicos, Josh Daicos, Tom Mitchell (4)
2022: Tom Hawkins, Jed Bews (2)
2021: Jack Viney (1)
2017-2020: N/A
2016: Zaine Cordy, Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore (3)
2013-2015: N/A

Next Generation Academy (1)
2023: Isaac Quaynor (1)
2013-2022: N/A

Northern Academy (0)
2013-2023 N/A

May as well throw the remaining 14 seasons of this century in as well...

Father-son (18)
2012: Josh Kennedy, Rhyce Shaw (2)
2011: Tom Hawkins, Matthew Scarlett (2)
2010: Travis Cloke, Heath Shaw (2)
2009: Gary Ablett Jr, Tom Hawkins, Matthew Scarlett (3)
2008: N/A
2007: Nathan Ablett, Gary Ablett Jr, Matthew Scarlett (3)
2006: Ben Cousins (1)
2005: Nick Davis (1)
2003: Jonathan Brown (1)
2002: Jonathan Brown (1)
2001: Jonathan Brown (1)
2000: Dustin Fletcher (1)

As you can see, it's pretty common for father-son picks to win premierships and has happened 28 times in the last 24 seasons.

Good info the and thanks. They are sons who played in a premiership. I was asking who are the father sons who both played in a premiership.

 

[GC2015]

Whist true to be fair NO ONE even thought Josh Daicos was even National Draft worthy when he went through. The other two sure, but lets not bunch Josh in with those two.

We actually have evidence that suggests the contrary. Josh Daicos was invited to the 2016 national combine (article here) and in order to be invited to the national combine at least five clubs need to have a prospect in their list of 70 prospects that they nominate as players they are interested in drafting and they submit that list to the AFL before the combine. Fair to say Josh Daicos would have appeared on Collingwood's list so at least four other clubs were interested in him as one of their top 70 prospects. It's entirely possible/likely that those clubs were intending on putting a bid on him with a mid to late late fourth round pick in the 60s/70s but Collingwood beat them to the punch by using their natural early fourth round pick (57). Collingwood had no picks left after number 57 so they had to draft Josh Daicos otherwise they would have been forced to use points from their 2017 first round pick to match a bid and they potentially drop in the draft order if that were to happen.

I think it's unfair to say "no one" thought about selecting Josh Daicos in the national draft when we have evidence that at least four clubs were considering it and Collingwood had a great reason to beat those clubs to the punch by drafting him with their last pick so their 2017 first round pick was not affected.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

That whittles it down to Daicos X2, Shaw X2, Cloke, Silvagni, Kennedy, Ebert, McIntosh, Mitchell

You might be stretching it by including Ebert and McIntosh

 

[Scritchyscroony]

You might be stretching it by including Ebert and McIntosh

Not as much as I stretched it with the 2 Shaw boys. Their dad was Ray not Tony.

 

[sports_fan39]

Whats the ruling on F/S ? like if the old man played 100+ games does that team get access in the draft regardless of which league they play in the juniors and thus (if good) just need points to match incase a bid comes in high say in R1 or so?

Like for example Levi Ashcroft looks like a top 3-5 pick, so i assume the Lions are gonna need a bunch of late picks to make up the points needed if someone bids on him in the early part of the draft, is that how it works?

 

[Caligo]

Whats the ruling on F/S ? like if the old man played 100+ games does that team get access in the draft regardless of which league they play in the juniors and thus (if good) just need points to match incase a bid comes in high say in R1 or so?

Like for example Levi Ashcroft looks like a top 3-5 pick, so i assume the Lions are gonna need a bunch of late picks to make up the points needed if someone bids on him in the early part of the draft, is that how it works?

Currently, yes. All that matters is that your dad hit the 100 game mark. You can be playing in a completely different state and it doesn't matter. Hawthorn just got a father son who played SA juniors.

 

[adammania9]

Father son
Home grand final
Free agency
Topping up lists

More than likely another decade of Vic teams dominating.

I forgot that interstate sides are banned from free agency, F/S picks and topping up lists

 

[sports_fan39]

Currently, yes. All that matters is that your dad hit the 100 game mark. You can be playing in a completely different state and it doesn't matter. Hawthorn just got a father son who played SA juniors.

Then if thats the case, does the player have a choice? so Ashcroft can say nah i dont wanna go to the Lions and just go to whoever picks him?

 

[Saab NLAW]

Heaps actually.
Liam Picken (), Nick Davis () Reece Shaw ()
Hird, Ablett x 2, Jonathan Brown, Heath Shaw, Hawkins, Trav Cloke, Scarlett, Viney, Dustyn Fletcher, Ashley McIntosh, Ben Cousins, Libba, Mitch Morton, Josh Kennedy, Daicos X2, Darcy Moore, Tom Mitchell, Sean Dempster, Brett Ebert, Jed Bews, Lachie Hunter,

Todd Viney didn't win a premiership

 

[Caligo]

Then if thats the case, does the player have a choice? so Ashcroft can say nah i dont wanna go to the Lions and just go to whoever picks him?

Ok so say you are a promising young kid whose father played 120 games for Geelong and 100 games for the Swans and since you happen to live on the Gold Coast you have been with their academy for the last 3 years. When draft time comes round, you can nominate to join the draft. At a later point, all three of those clubs (Geelong, Sydney and GC) can nominate you as a potential eligible choice. You as the player can then choose between four options. You can be a f/s draft candidate for either Geelong or Sydney, an academy candidate for GC OR you can just join the open draft like everybody else.

It is your choice which club (but only 1) can have priority access to you, or you can choose for none of them to have priority access (this is rare but has happened. Marc Murphy is an example). Whatever you choose, it is then up to the club to draft you or not.

 

[go_the_dockers]

I forgot that interstate sides are banned from free agency, F/S picks and topping up lists

When 80 percent of father son are from vic teams, even ablind man could see it favours them.

 

[Caligo]

When 80 percent of father son are from vic teams, even ablind man could see it favours them.

Brisbane are doing a good job trying to change those numbers.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Brisbane are doing a good job trying to change those numbers.

In 20 years it might be even, still advantage vics at the moment

 

[Caligo]

In 20 years it might be even, still advantage vics at the moment

Brisbane has more first round f/s (which are honestly the only ones that matter, after r1 the draft is a total crapshoot) than most vic clubs.

Some have never had a 1st round f/s in their history.