Opinion Is the 2015 Collingwood list better than the 2014 Collingwood list?

[DinoSoar]

I share the same view as most : 2015 will be a small step backwards but will lead to a huge leap forward in 2016.

Looking forward to 2015 season and seeing what our young list will start to be capable of and bringing more consistency in performance and output. Exciting times ahead!

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

I'm not sure if our list is better going into next year than it was going into 2014, but I think one thing that's definitely being underrated is that we were already a young and inexperienced side last year, and while we've lost some experience and bright in more kids, we have also gained another year's worth of experience into last year's kids.

I would expect the following kids to give us more in 2015 than they were capable of in 2014:

Brodie Grundy
Jarrod Witts
Jack Frost
Taylor Adams
Marley Williams
Ben Kennedy
Tim Broomhead
Paul Seedsman

I think all of those guys will be better just because they have improved as players.

Then there's the guys who may have improved as players, but we also didn't get to see last year because of injuries, in:

Alex Fasolo
Patrick Karnezis
Adam Oxley
Nathan Freeman
Matthew Scharenberg
Jonathon Marsh

Then there's the older guys, who probably aren't improving as players, but can improve our on-field performance just by being out there and healthy:

Ben Reid
Dane Swan
Jamie Elliott
Nathan Brown
Josh Thomas

By my reckoning, including Greenwood and Varcoe who've come in from other lists through the trade period, we only have about half a dozen guys who don't have a solid reason to believe that they're capable of a signficant improvement in their output going into next season. Of course, that's not a guarantee of improvement, but it means that a lot remains to be seen in terms of how much of that potential to improve is going to come to fruition.

I wouldn't be surprised if, with less games lost to injury, we were far closer to our "thereabouts for the 8" status of 2014 than people think.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Impossible to tell but improvement from 2nd 3rd and 4th year players will take us a long way. The key to our future is Elliot Grundy Witts Frost Scharenburg Freeman Thomas Fasolo Adams Langdon Kennedy Broomhead Williams Sinclair etc. They wont all make it but thats a pretty deep batting list of young players with some serious upside (many taken early in the draft) in my opinion, without including Karnesiz Crisp Gault De Goey Moore Armstrong Oxley Marsh. Varcoe will add some depth experience and skill while Greenwood will be a hard body we need straight away after some losses to senior players.

I'm pretty excited.

 

[Krueger]

Ball, Beams, Maxwell were all past their best. I'm excited for this new group

I know your trying to be positive but how stupid do you think people are? Beams was a gun and nowhere near his prime let alone past his best.

 

[SchuPie]

With the big bodies, I think Beams going is clearly a factor but I think it goes further than that. Ball has gone, that leaves us a big body short also. And after 2014 I'm not sure there is as much confidence in JT to be a weekly contributor as there was the year before.

I think the club saw what many others saw: too many little men and too much crap disposal to win a flag.

Varcoe is a better ball user than H, and most of our new players are big and can kick.

Answering the OP, the midfield will look drastically different to what we've seen for a few years and how long that takes to settle will have a big say on how the season goes. Long term I think this squad is better equipped for the long term but it's also raw in areas which may see some pain before gain at stages of the year.

Yet at the AGM when asked about small players the response was along the lines of, "...our average height is actually..." - using stats to mask a concern.
From this it's obvious that the club isn't going to be straight with members when it's clear that '14 draft recruiting policies demonstrate that they were just as concerned as members. That's fine, don't tip your hand, but we need to realise that in attending these functions we won't always receive the answers we want or that the Club will acknowledge.

 

[ace andy]

Yet at the AGM when asked about small players the response was along the lines of, "...our average height is actually..." - using stats to mask a concern.
From this it's obvious that the club isn't going to be straight with members when it's clear that '14 draft recruiting policies demonstrate that they were just as concerned as members. That's fine, don't tip your hand, but we need to realise that in attending these functions we won't always receive the answers we want or that the Club will acknowledge.

People should know by now that everyone in the afl lies all the time to the public. From the AFL headquarters to coaches to players. This has obviously developed because when we actually here the truth the media and fans get all flustered and angry. Thats why I basically don't listen to interviews anymore as they never tell you anything.

 

[didaksrightfoot]

Yet at the AGM when asked about small players the response was along the lines of, "...our average height is actually..." - using stats to mask a concern.
From this it's obvious that the club isn't going to be straight with members when it's clear that '14 draft recruiting policies demonstrate that they were just as concerned as members. That's fine, don't tip your hand, but we need to realise that in attending these functions we won't always receive the answers we want or that the Club will acknowledge.

I see your point - but surely the idea that the club won't be completely transparent should be an obvious truth... it is a big competitive business, and anything they say to the members becomes public for all 17 clubs - they aren't gonna give away their full concerns/plans (or in this case - what turned out to be our draft strategy).

I think what we can do - is take inferences from what they "say", but really judge them more on the decisions they make.
The decisions to draft all tall mids is a pretty clearly sign that they are also concerned about our height.
The decisions to change our club doctor (I think), but keep Davoran - shows that they want to address our injury problems, but don't think Davoran is the problem.
Bucks' (and the selection panel's) decisions to (IMO) play guys who are more suited to a defensive, contested-footy, style of game, shows a bit of what they are "trying" to do- it's just been far from succesful over the last couple of years.
And it's really only on the results of their decisions that we will be able to judge them... so far it hasn't been pretty, but hopefully we see the upside of all of this in the next 2-3 years.

 

[SchuPie]

I see your point - but surely the idea that the club won't be completely transparent should be an obvious truth... it is a big competitive business, and anything they say to the members becomes public for all 17 clubs - they aren't gonna give away their full concerns/plans (or in this case - what turned out to be our draft strategy).

I think what we can do - is take inferences from what they "say", but really judge them more on the decisions they make.
The decisions to draft all tall mids is a pretty clearly sign that they are also concerned about our height.
The decisions to change our club doctor (I think), but keep Davoran - shows that they want to address our injury problems, but don't think Davoran is the problem.
Bucks' (and the selection panel's) decisions to (IMO) play guys who are more suited to a defensive, contested-footy, style of game, shows a bit of what they are "trying" to do- it's just been far from succesful over the last couple of years.
And it's really only on the results of their decisions that we will be able to judge them... so far it hasn't been pretty, but hopefully we see the upside of all of this in the next 2-3 years.

Agree

 

[rustyg70]

[QUOTE="Vinnie Vegas, post: 36340566, member: 14141"
I wouldn't be surprised if, with less games lost to injury, we were far closer to our "thereabouts for the 8" status of 2014 than people think.[/QUOTE]

I love how every one is writing us off this year, but forget that we were only 1 win and percentage away from finishing in the top 8.

 

[well left]

I think VV is right and you also see it when you look at games played when you consider most people believe you need 50-100 games under your belt before you start to hit your peak:

Over 100 games: 9 (Swan, Cloke, Pendlebury, Varcoe, Young, Toovey, Sidebottom, Goldsack and Blair)
50-100 games: 7 (Reid, Brown, White, Greenwood, Macaffer, Fasolo and Elliott)

My best 22 for Round 1 would probably only have 12 of those 16, which means we have 10 players under 50 games to get experience into.

The next bracket includes Witts, Grundy, Adams, Williams, Langdon, Seedman, Kennedy & Karnezis - any of these guys entrench themselves in the best 22 and they move past or close to 50 games by the end of the year. These are the guys, along with Fasolo and Elliott, that we can look to for improvement to their game and our list in 2015.

You then also throw in Broomhead with 8 games and potential game time to De Goey, Freeman, Moore, Scharenberg, Maynard and Marsh and there seems more scope for improvement within the list than in previous years.

Makes the trade in of Greenwood and Varcoe important, even though I wasn't a fan of getting Varcoe, when you look at the number we have over that 50 game mark. It's probably why we will see Young and Blair get games also but I would like to see them improve or be overtaken by the youngsters.

 

[PTpie]

Holy crap! Steele Sidebottom will only be 24 next season with 127 games played already. WTF? That is insane. I love this guy and am still stunned by how good he is at such a young age and how well he performs when it really counts. He may end up being a 300 gamer if injuries don't cut him down.

As mentioned above the whole experience thing is probably the only real knock on the list for 2015. The talent is there, they just don't have that little bit extra that comes from "been there, done that" yet.

 

[Dynamics]

Yet at the AGM when asked about small players the response was along the lines of, "...our average height is actually..." - using stats to mask a concern.
From this it's obvious that the club isn't going to be straight with members when it's clear that '14 draft recruiting policies demonstrate that they were just as concerned as members. That's fine, don't tip your hand, but we need to realise that in attending these functions we won't always receive the answers we want or that the Club will acknowledge.

To be blunt I didn't really pay attention to what was said at the meeting as I expected such things to be glossed over.

 

[Sloth]

I know your trying to be positive but how stupid do you think people are? Beams was a gun and nowhere near his prime let alone past his best.

Yeah? I think he's been going downhill since he pulled out of the 2011 grand final

 

[jmac70]

Holy crap! Steele Sidebottom will only be 24 next season with 127 games played already. WTF? That is insane. I love this guy and am still stunned by how good he is at such a young age and how well he performs when it really counts. He may end up being a 300 gamer if injuries don't cut him down.

As mentioned above the whole experience thing is probably the only real knock on the list for 2015. The talent is there, they just don't have that little bit extra that comes from "been there, done that" yet.

Steele will reach the elite category next season.

 

[mike123]

I'm not really worried about that. Fringe/young players always look better in great teams. Just remember that blair, dawes and fasolo were considered to be better players during 2011.

Maybe the hawks youngsters really are that good but I really doubt they are going to replace all their current stars.

Having said that most of collingwoods young players that we are banking on haven't proved much either. I think crystal balling a few years down the track is always a waste of time. Things change so much so quickly.

Yes but they are first round draft picks which are more likely to turn out into stars.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Yeah? I think he's been going downhill since he pulled out of the 2011 grand final

All Australian 2012

 

[Hardas]

All Australian 2012

Gee, he must've been good before that!

 

[mike123]

Yeah? I think he's been going downhill since he pulled out of the 2011 grand final

Well he had his break out season the year after so I don't know what you mean by downhill.

 

[Sloth]

All Australian 2012

meh

 

[mike123]

I think the 2014 list it sealf was better but with the injuriew we had the output was lowered (which has also lowered some expectations for the 2015 season.)

When key players get back and our 2015 season will be better than 2014 even thought the list itself is substantially worse.

 

[gutsroy]

2015 list is better in my opinion because, apart from Beams and maybe Lumumba, the experienced players we lost such as Ball, Lynch and Maxwell were at the end of their careers, the Irish lads didn't really have much impact in 2014 etc., whereas Broomhead, Kennedy, our young rucks, Freeman, Greenwood and Crisp should maintain output or improve, and if we have less injuries,Reid, Brown, Karnezis etc. can all help us improve. We'll have the inconsistency of youth and might tread water on the ladder, but there's more to look forward to. That end up being very long winded, sorry.

 

[doppleganger]

2015

 

[Lefthanded]

Now that the drafts and trade periods are all over, I think the relevant question is;

"Is the 2015 Collingwood list better then the 2014 Collingwood list?"

The loss of Beams, Maxwell and Ball obviously hurts the best 22 straight out, but with natural improvement from the youngsters we've drafted in the previous 3-4 seasons, and the inclusion of Varcoe and Greenwood to the best 22 straight away, it's a close run thing I reckon.

Lots of interesting views on this and ultimately depends on subjective evaluations of what best means. 2014 a good but underperformed list (mainly injury related) so in the only objective measure (ladder position) I hope the 2015 boys come up trumps. In addition to your comments on Greenwood & Varcoe I think the biggest advantage 2015 can have over 2014 is if Reid & Brown stay on the park and no key players are out for significant periods.

Some key indicators as I see them:
1. Who can step up to help fill the leadership void left by Maxy & Ball?
2. Have the club got fitness / injury issues sorted enough that they will have a fair chance?
3. Will most of the 19-52 game talented players (Elliott, Fas, Adams, Keeffe, Seeds, Williams, JT, Witts, Frost, Grundy, PK, BK, Langdon) show improvement?
4. Who of the less experienced talents (Broom, Ox, Freeman, Marsh & our recruits) can impact pretty much straight away?