Is this where Collingwood falls away?

[Corn Cobbers]

You'd have to be a complete imbecile to think that finishing 2nd is the same as finishing 1st

Who thinks that?

2nd is very painful

 

[Robertio]

I guess it's all still yet to be proven, unless you call a 13.5 win, 5th placed season a roaring success?

Since the two win 2018 season our wins have improved every year, if we don't crack it this year we still have another four years at least with this group.

 

[Worm4]

Since the two win 2018 season our wins have improved every year, if we don't crack it this year we still have another four years at least with this group.

Since our last premiership , its been 27 years of failure .
Collingwood 25 years of failure as well. I would like to win another before these clowns just to shut them up for a while

 

[Robertio]

Since our last premiership , its been 27 years of failure .
Collingwood 25 years of failure as well. I would like to win another before these clowns just to shut them up for a while

Not going to shut these two up with one flag, we better win three at least.

 

[Worm4]

Not going to shut these two up with one flag, we better win three at least.

Don't think 3 would be enough either. They might win 3 minor premierships in the same time

 

[Lockyer24]

Brisbane have beaten us fair and square twice, and Carlton did once out of two games

The only two teams to have “found us out” with tactical coaching was Melbourne QB and Adelaide not long after IMO

 

[Corn Cobbers]

3646 days since they won a final but they think they're on the cusp of a flag lol

 

[beerbandit]

If miss this chance as July Premiers, it’s gone. Outright favourites with bookies, supporters and media in July has pumped you up.

To win a real premiership, you need to win this next match.

Being 1st on the ladder means zero now. 1st now = 4th.

You’re playing on Melbourne’s home ground.

You’re form over the past 6 weeks has been bottom 8 standard.

Key players missing, may not come back in time.

It’s all on the line for a match against Melbourne who’s form has been getting better, not worse.

Your game is in 6 days.

NNNNNNervy WWWobblers

You seem to be doing a lot of worrying about Collingwood for some reason.

I’d be putting more time into worrying about your own mob getting past week 1 of the finals.

 

[Worm4]

10199 days since we reached number 16 and the pies still can't catch us

 

[Corn Cobbers]

You seem to be doing a lot of worrying about Collingwood for some reason.

I’d be putting more time into worrying about your own mob getting past week 1 of the finals.

Unity is cracking. They know they're cooked, so they're looking for other targets

 

[HairyO]

Not going to shut these two up with one flag, we better win three at least.

Agreed. 3-peat or GTFO.

 

[beerbandit]

10199 days since we reached number 16 and the pies still can't catch us

Is that how long since your last flag?

Oh my!!

 

[Worm4]

Is that how long since your last flag?

Oh my!!

Yet , collingwood are still behind ? Again....

 

[Worm4]

Is that how long since your last flag?

Oh my!!

Collingwood 4349 days

 

[Catsnlakers]

Yeah it is genuinely tricky to find examples of someone limping towards finals but still winning anyway.

West Coast in 2018 for their last 8 games went 6-2, so you can say that the 3-2 example is slightly misleading. The North loss was weird admittedly (but back then North were seriously good in Hobart), but the Melbourne game was a close one with Melbourne having more to play for. For the most part their form had largely remained the same throughout the season. In contrast I think Richmond arguably peaked too early that year, three of their last four H&A games they won by under 2 goals (the other game against the Suns who had won one game after Round 5 that year).

2016 the Dogs arguably were limping towards finals that year (went 3-3 from their last six games) and lost to a side that went 4-18 in the last round, but that flag win was so unlikely I don't think it means much going forward.

The other two examples where you could argue that a side that was struggling pre-finals but still won the Premiership was 2012 and 2009. In 2012 Sydney went 1-3 in their last four H&A fixtures, but two of those three losses were close ones against fellow Top 4 teams (Hawthorn and Collingwood), and the other one against Geelong in Geelong. Even when Sydney were flying those games would've been 50/50 or so, so I don't think it's that comparable to the Pies form slump.

2009 might be the one that gives Collingwood optimitism, though. After going 13 in a row Geelong went 5-4 for the rest of the season, but three of those five wins were by less than a goal. The other two wins came against Melbourne and Fremantle at home....they were legitimately playing kind of bad prior to finals but turned out fine. That's probably the only recent example of a side doing the whole "train ultra hard, mix a few things around and cop a few losses late in the season" thing and it actually working.

This is a very good comparison, because in the post match press conferences after that 2009 GF both Bomber Thompson & Ross Lyon spoke of the last few matches being “dead rubbers” & waiting for finals, these losses for the Pies are purely mental, they’ll be a different team come Thursday. Doesn’t guarantee them a win, because in finals anything can happen, but it explains the drop off no doubt.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Is that how long since your last flag?

Oh my!!

Yep "Gangsta's Paradise" was the number 1 hit when the Blues last saluted

 

[Fadge]

Collingwood 4349 days

So just a fraction longer than Carlton's most recent finals appearance?

 

[CCurnow3votes]

It's exactly the same position we've been in about ten times this century, I've lost count

Business as usual

Blues on the other hand... once in a blue moon finals appearance, even rarer run of form, it's now or never for the Blueshakers

Haha hardly - we’re just starting obviously.

There’s a chance this year - clearly would be one out of the box.

The Wobblers on the other hand - the window is closing, hope you don’t miss out

 

[CCurnow3votes]

You seem to be doing a lot of worrying about Collingwood for some reason.

I’d be putting more time into worrying about your own mob getting past week 1 of the finals.

No more worrying than is coming back our way - from the same crew responding to me, as chance would have it.

It’s the point of banter threads like this, don’t you know.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Haha hardly - we’re just starting obviously.

There’s a chance this year - clearly would be one out of the box.

The Wobblers on the other hand - the window is closing, hope you don’t miss out

I see you guys like Fitzroy in 1986, on a rare roll before flaming out in the finals, never to be seen in September again

 

[CCurnow3votes]

I see you guys like Fitzroy in 1986, on a rare roll before flaming out in the finals, never to be seen in September again

Obscure but OK..

We are more like Carlton in 1986 - a year away from our next premiership.

 

[demondavey]

They’re about to play Melbourne in a final. This is where they do the opposite of fall away.

With all the talk about Collingwood not being up to it etc, I full expect the opposite. Collingwood will beat Melbourne by 40-50 points. From there, the GF is locked.

 

[demondavey]

I'm loving how arrogant and cocky they are considering their form against the other sides in the top 4. It's grouse

Form against sides come finals is irrelevant.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

They’re about to play Melbourne in a final. This is where they do the opposite of fall away.

With all the talk about Collingwood not being up to it etc, I full expect the opposite. Collingwood will beat Melbourne by 40-50 points. From there, the GF is locked.

Are you just basing that on last year?

Melbourne are generally pretty good in finals imo, haven't done the numbers though

 

[demondavey]

Are you just basing that on last year?

Melbourne are generally pretty good in finals imo, haven't done the numbers though

Collingwood’s inclusions are big. You have a seriously potent forward line. Our forward structure is flaky, particularly now without Melksham. Fritsch is / was injured. If Fritsch is not 100% then we are going down the Tom McDonald route and expecting big things from Neal-Bullen and Pickett. It doesn’t inspire confidence.

I just think Collingwood is far too well rounded. Our backline will weather the storm for a while but we will be outnumbered against a very good opposition. Our only hope is some remarkable lift from two forwards other than Fritsch to kick 3-4 accompanied with an absolutely dominant midfield display. We are talking Gawn heroics and Petracca magic.

Collingwood will win this easily.