Israel loses the War

[Moo]

Why do you support a terrorist movement? Do you actually want them to succeed? Who are you arguing for?

Red legs it is not football - I am not supporting anyone.

I am just stating who were the winners/losers in the conflict IMHO.

Part of the problem on this board and in the world is everyone is coming from the issues from an angle rather than honsetly looking at the situation. I am arguing for people and the right to live your lives peacefully. At the moment neither Israel killing civillians, destroying infrastructure and a massively over the top response - nor Hezbollah who fire rockets indiscriminantly into civillian areas meet my criteria as anything I would support. Of course both have God on their side - even though both break said instructions from their particular God.

Israel need to stop living in the apst and understand to fight terrorism - you must fight the cause of terrorism ....the conditions created in occupioed land, oppression of neighbours and using your military superiority to punish will get them no where. Hezbollah - with their anti-semitism and terrorist tactics of killing inncoent people are the flip side to an evil 2 sided coin.

As corny as it sounds I'm on the side of innocent people and peace. Pity I didnt have a few more friends on this board and the planet.

 

[GuruJane]

How do you think the 2 foes are going to go in the next election?

Elections not due in either country for four years.

Re Israel - only possibility of election is if govt collapses. The odds are against this, imo, as long as Olmert and Peretz (Kadima/Labour) maintain strong stance that Resolutions 1559 and 1701 have to be implemented.

In particular focus will now switch to stopping Syria and Iran re-arming Hezbollah. The US will back Israel strongly on this diplomatically and otherwise.

You'll find the issue is kept to the public forefront, imo.

Olmert has been smashed politically (plus he cant slip inot military fatigues like his predecessors) and I think Hezbollah may be close to a stunning increase in representation.

Short term maybe. Long term - will depend on above.

Electons in Lebanon not due for years. In meantime Hezzie more than has handsfull rehousing the Shiites.

150 high rises, I hear.

Israel expect to win and win decisively in these battles (when was the last battle where they didnt achieve their objectives?)

This is true. But if why did Israel only use 2000 - 3000 troops on ground for initial two weeks? Over confidence? Maybe. Or maybe the goals were more limited than the politicians rhetoric suggested.

In politics: its what the politicians do, not what they say that counts.

 

[GuruJane]

No - I think they pretty much exist to antagonise a war so they can at least Die martys. INviting judgement day on themselves. It is almost as if the glorious death is the perfect end game. I'm not suggesting they have had any sort of miliatary superiority.

Agree. Hezbollah is going to get more and more frustrated with the diminution of their power.

But in the end it'll all depend on what Syria and Iran do.

As for your last line - true - but would have been nice for it not to have been bombed to pieces 1st.

For sure.

You seem to think I'm on their side - I'm just saying that war and conflict do seem to be the desired agenda of Extremist Islamic Militias.

US/Israel will be focussed on keeping Hezbollah cornered and keeping UN pressure on Syria and Iran.

Interesting times.

 

[just maybe]

Jane is like the Iraqi Information Minister for Israel.

Everything is good for Israel, everything is bad for Hezbollah.

Funny that most of the world doesn't think that.

 

[Qsaint]

The French just announced the troop numbers







200



Hostilities will recommence shortly

 

[Lindenow Cat]

Lestat is like the Iraqi Information Minister for Hezbollah.

Everything is good for Hezbollah, everything is bad for Israel.

Funny that most of the world doesn't think that.

Guess a lot's got to do with perspective.

 

[Qsaint]

Unlikely, with Arab money flooding in.



.

Guru's right more likely 5 to 10 years to rebuild

 

[OB1]

Bugger, I had a slab with me mate on Israel. He even gave me 20 rockets in.
I missed the last quarter so what was the final score?

Some people here are seriously disturbed trying to claim a sort of victory out of this conflict. I'm sure the families of the dead on both sides don't feel they've won anything. Pointless & seemingly endless annimosity between Israel & the region hasn't changed at all. The only victory is a lasting peace & neither side has achieved that. Israel didn't get its soldiers back or destroy Hezbollah & at the same time Hezbollah didn't destroy Israel, regain any of the occupied land & failed to prevent the IDF from smashing cities & incurring troops well within Lebanon's borders. Pointless conflict with nothing gained but more death leading to more tension (if that was even possible).

 

[GuruJane]

The French just announced the troop numbers







200



Hostilities will recommence shortly

I expect the French are negotiating the terms of what they'll be expected to do.

No way are they going in there if any chance Hez will start attacking them like they did in 80s.

And they won't want to be responsible for policing the border with Syria, either!

And they wan't want to be held responsible if it all breaks down.

Poor Frogs - but they're the ones who told W to go the UN route.

 

[GuruJane]

Guru's right more likely 5 to 10 years to rebuild

150 high rises divided by 60 months: 2.5 per month.

Then there are the 7000 dwellings in southern Lebanon.

 

[Qsaint]

150 high rises divided by 60 months: 2.5 per month.

Then there are the 7000 dwellings in southern Lebanon.

Whilst villages maybe able to cobble together materials to fix very basic dwellings.

High rises, roads and bridges take engineers, steel, concrete and heavy machinery.


Even in Australia we have trouble rebuilding Innisfail. Machinery is usually 100% in use, steel manufacture by Bluescope and smorgons is limited by capacity which is normally running very close to 100%


Money is not the problem its capacity

 

[GuruJane]

Money is not the problem its capacity

Yep.

Dahiya suburb, now demolished, was Hez pride and joy - a sort of an armed Vatican. Nobody could go in there without Hez permission. It took them more than 20 years to build it. All gone.

I remarked early on about the astonishing absence of civilian casualties given the destruction in Dahiya. They must have all got out in the first 24 hours of the war, guessing what would be coming.

Maybe Hez can put up temporary tents?

 

[FIGJAM]

So what was their objective?

To weaken Hezbollah. Yeah that really worked.

Hezbollah are stronger then ever, with more support then they could ever have dreamed of before the war.

Even the Lebenese Christians are now supporting Hezbollah.

Moral support is irrelevant to the Israel government.

If Hezbollah, or even Lebanon propper, decides to mess with Israel again, then they can expect another hiding.

As such, they will think twice about what they perceived initially as trivial guerilla warfare. There's nothing trivial about taking two individuals who have done nothing wrong (although I'm sure you subscribe to the "captured in Southern Lebanon" conspiracy theory).

At the end of the day, they are both losers. That's the fact of the matter. Lebanon moreso than Israel, but then if they choose to silently support combat groups obviously operating from within their neighbourhood, then that negative Karma generated by Hebollah extends to Lebanon, and they copped their share. That's a product of the Great Law.

What I can't understand is that before the ceasefire, Lebanon and Hebollah were complaining about the retalliation to the kidnapping being over the top, which I'd actually agree with, but then choose to say that they "won" after begging the opposition for mercy. FFS, you can't have it both ways!

 

[GuruJane]

Really?

Seems that many in Israel don't agree with you Jane.

"Unease is gowing about the new crop of Israeli leaders who took the country into a war that many believe they did not win."

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/leaders-blamed-for-war-failings/2006/08/16/1155407888630.html

The debate in Israel will be wholly about why they didn't use full force and how quickly will they upgrade their tank force to state of art armour.

 

[Moo]

What I can't understand is that before the ceasefire, Lebanon and Hebollah were complaining about the retalliation to the kidnapping being over the top, which I'd actually agree with, but then choose to say that they "won" after begging the opposition for mercy. FFS, you can't have it both ways!

They were always going to claim victory - just the way it is.

BTW Hezbollah asked for a CF, the Govt were the ones calling for mercy?

 

[FIGJAM]

BTW Hezbollah asked for a CF, the Govt were the ones calling for mercy?

I played a game of mercy the other day and asked for a "cease mercy", so I didn't actually lose!

 

[Audemars Piguet]

For those who think Hezzbolla won

Check the body count, nice try but you are wrong.

Lets hope Isreal learn from almost being challenged.

 

[chiangmaipie]

The debate in Israel will be wholly about why they didn't use full force and how quickly will they upgrade their tank force to state of art armour.

Won't that be a costly exercise? Who is going to pay for new tanks?

 

[Qsaint]

Won't that be a costly exercise? Who is going to pay for new tanks?

The newer tanks have a unique system where the armour is reasonably small removable sheets, maybe these sheets only have to be replaced

 

[medusala]

Won't that be a costly exercise? Who is going to pay for new tanks?

You dont get two guesses.

 

[GuruJane]

, maybe these sheets only have to be replaced

I believe that is the case.

The other thing they'll do is train up the reserves for tough guerilla fighting.

 

[Moo]

For those who think Hezzbolla won

Check the body count, nice try but you are wrong.

Lets hope Isreal learn from almost being challenged.

This battle was never about a straight body count.

 

[Qsaint]

I believe that is the case.

The other thing they'll do is train up the reserves for tough guerilla fighting.

There was an article that interviewed about 5 Seargent Majors, orders got changed, villages to be advanced on got changed half way through an advance. It was chaotic. IDF would be better to move away from US Command Control and move towards the British Battalion objectives system

 

[Audemars Piguet]

This battle was never about a straight body count.

Neither Israel or Hezzbolla reached their desired goal, so in that regard the outcome was a stalemate.

However, the body count confirms Israel suffered far, far less than its enemy.

How can one say Israel lost when its enemy had 10 times as many casualties?

To suggest Hezzbolla won is laughable.

 

[Moo]

Neither Israel or Hezzbolla reached their desired goal, so in that regard the outcome was a stalemate.

However, the body count confirms Israel suffered far, far less than its enemy.

How can one say Israel lost when its enemy had 10 times as many casualties?

To suggest Hezzbolla won is laughable.

10x's are you counting civillians living in Lebanon and not connected with Hezbollah?