News Jackson Hately requests trade to Adelaide

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2017 with Fog and Moose isn't a bad one, even 2018 with Sholl and Hamill is good, and I've not given up on Jones and Ned like the others, 2019 looks good too.

2016 is the only disaster really
Good that he's nailing picks in the 30s 40s and 50s, but our track record in the first round where our picks are this year is abysmal. No other way round it.
 
Kelly can't possibly fu** up this poker hand can he? He holds the winning hand because GWS know the PSD is not a bluff....of course he would need to follow through though.

It's going to make some people uncomfortable if we go down that path. I think a lot of people have been used to us being 'the good guys' come trade time. 'A fair deal will be done' etc etc.

I'd be happy with a 4th rd to keep keep the peace, even though that's still a long way off his worth, and it would claw back a small portion of the embarrassment we've suffered with the Crouch situation. Just remember we lost Phil Davis to them, so it's not as if we're on an even keel.

If we went the PSD route, well..... wouldn't that be shocking, yet pleasantly surprising?

An emotion barely bestowed upon Crows fans...
 

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BACCS "Well, he went at pick 14 in the superdraft and he has had two years development. Pick 9 seems about right in a compromised draft." :p
Yes, exactly my thoughts, how did you know?! I’ve consistently said there is no need to give a pick above 40 for Hately and I would be very surprised if we do, as unlike the Crouch deal we hold all the cards here with the PSD. I’m not sure this deal will happen quickly though with the Cameron deal the GWS priority.
 
How do you know the PSD is not a bluff?

Were the Crows, we don't have the balls to go to the PSD.. it's 90% a bluff.
Because Hately is out of contract and if he's satisfied with the contract we've put in front of him (he obviously is) and he is prepared to walk to the PSD we can take him just like Carlton did with Martin, in fact it's even easier because unlike Carlton we hold pick 1 in the PSD so no risk of another team slipping in and matching our offer.

GWS basically have to accept what we offer or get zilch.
 
Good that he's nailing picks in the 30s 40s and 50s, but our track record in the first round where our picks are this year is abysmal. No other way round it.
With exception to Galucci, that’s way too early to call on the likes of Fog, Jones, Ned, McAsey etc, despite what impatient supporters on this board may tell you.
 
It's going to make some people uncomfortable if we go down that path. I think a lot of people have been used to us being 'the good guys' come trade time. 'A fair deal will be done' etc etc.

I'd be happy with a 4th rd to keep keep the peace, even though that's still a long way off his worth, and it would claw back a small portion of the embarrassment we've suffered with the Crouch situation. Just remember we lost Phil Davis to them, so it's not as if we're on an even keel.

If we went the PSD route, well..... wouldn't that be shocking, yet pleasantly surprising?

An emotion barely bestowed upon Crows fans...
GWS basically have to take whatever we offer, do I think we'll go the PSD...No but it has to be pretty much a pick we're not going to use now.

Really we lost Davis to the AFL....we did agree to the terms of the expansion teams, Sheedy outsmarted everyone who thought he'd go for experience not youth.
 
ditto

i’m not having a go at Binuk, but the way some people go on about him...

****

There's a strong inclination by many to deify AFC staff. Kelly was the second coming a week ago, couldn't be questioned at all. How long has Binuk been around? I can't see the marked improvement between what we've let go and what we've brought in. His data is meant to correct human bias in valuing players. Sounds like Greenwood's dig, stats more important than influence. How do you value the unrewarded running to get more numbers at the ball more often like Richmond. 5 players swarm the contest and 2 get a stat for winning and clearing it. But that winning occurs much less without the other 3.

I agree there's value, but people holding up Binuk as some kind of secret weapon guru that keeps us ahead of the game seems quite fanciful. And his response to Rendell's erroneous reporting showed he's very defensive and thin skinned.
 
How do you know the PSD is not a bluff?

Were the Crows, we don't have the balls to go to the PSD.. it's 90% a bluff.

If we've got other targets we don't want to have already deployed our onky trump card though. If it is going to be used we still need to keep it alive in the minds of our enemies.
 
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Because Hately is out of contract and if he's satisfied with the contract we've put in front of him (he obviously is) and he is prepared to walk to the PSD we can take him just like Carlton did with Martin, in fact it's even easier because unlike Carlton we hold pick 1 in the PSD so no risk of another team slipping in and matching our offer.

GWS basically have to accept what we offer or get zilch.

But why are you sure we'll even consider the PSD an option.

What about how we've acted makes you think we've got that ruthless willingness to do so?
 

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There's a strong inclination by many to deify AFC staff. Kelly was the second coming a week ago, couldn't be questioned at all. How long has Binuk been around? I can't see the marked improvement between what we've let go and what we've brought in. His data is meant to correct human bias in valuing players. Sounds like Greenwood's dig, stats more important than influence. How do you value the unrewarded running to get more numbers at the ball more often like Richmond. 5 players swarm the contest and 2 get a stat for winning and clearing it. But that winning occurs much less without the other 3.

I agree there's value, but people holding up Binuk as some kind of secret weapon guru that keeps us ahead of the game seems quite fanciful. And his response to Rendell's erroneous reporting showed he's very defensive and thin skinned.

Also other clubs are investing in the data analytics in this regard a lot more than we are, which makes this even less of a 'secret weapon'

willing to bet their guys are better qualified as well.

Binuk is another example of Crows going with the cheap option.
 
Yes, exactly my thoughts, how did you know?! I’ve consistently said there is no need to give a pick above 40 for Hately and I would be very surprised if we do, as unlike the Crouch deal we hold all the cards here with the PSD. I’m not sure this deal will happen quickly though with the Cameron deal the GWS priority.
How will the Cameron deal impact our Hately deal exactly, we've committed to him 100%, looks a straight forward transaction between the GWS and us.
 
It seems to me that Binuk is there to assess value of pick trades mostly. Dry data stuff, not talent assessment. I am not against his type of analysis at all, but I do worry that we have traded down while he’s been on the team, and I think you don’t win flags without absolutely top end match winners which you are mostly likely to get at very high picks.
 
2017 with Fog and Moose isn't a bad one, even 2018 with Sholl and Hamill is good, and I've not given up on Jones and Ned like the others, 2019 looks good too.

2016 is the only disaster really
Gallucci is a bad one (suggested that Pyke picked not Ogilvie), and the rest were 3rd round picks or later. Himmelberg at 55 is looking a great pick at this point. the only players after our second pick (Polholke) who have 'made it' are (exc FS, etc):
46 - Mitch Hannan
49 - Lewis Young
53 - Jack Graham
56 - Ed Philips
58 - MDB (mature age)
63 - Dylan Clarke
66 - Luke Ryan
73 - Nick Larkey
76 - Mitch Lewis

Hardly the who's who! It was a poor draft after the first 2 rounds, and we only had one pick, which we missed, so to get 1 out of 4 is above average.
 
It seems to me that Binuk is there to assess value of pick trades mostly. Dry data stuff, not talent assessment. I am not against his type of analysis at all, but I do worry that we have traded down while he’s been on the team, and I think you don’t win flags without absolutely top end match winners which you are mostly likely to get at very high picks.

Not according to Binuk, he's all over the lot.

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We can't take both at pick 1 in the PSD
Of course we can't but Hately is an easy peasy transaction...and relatively low cost re salary cap....Cameron is pie in the sky stuff. Next to zero chance he's coming our way IMO unless we're going to offer up top end players which seems to be the sticking point at this stage or take on board his mammoth contract via the PSD..
 
Gallucci is a bad one (suggested that Pyke picked not Ogilvie), and the rest were 3rd round picks or later. Himmelberg at 55 is looking a great pick at this point. the only players after our second pick (Polholke) who have 'made it' are (exc FS, etc):
46 - Mitch Hannan
49 - Lewis Young
53 - Jack Graham
56 - Ed Philips
58 - MDB (mature age)
63 - Dylan Clarke
66 - Luke Ryan
73 - Nick Larkey
76 - Mitch Lewis

Hardly the who's who! It was a poor draft after the first 2 rounds, and we only had one pick, which we missed, so to get 1 out of 4 is above average.

I'd be hesitant to call 1 out of 4 above average even in a bad draft.

It probably ends up being a break-even for 2016, in that we stuffed the easy pick up (a bit unfortunate really) but nailed the jackpot later on, should Himmelberg continue on, and there really isn't a reason he wouldn't considering the very large tank and contested marking skills. Though if he becomes a top 10 KPF in the league, then above average is a good call.

People do have a habit of overvaluing first round picks with a draft, the end result is all that matters when rating it as a body work. That said, first round picks are the easy path to a good draft so there is some justification with being worried about later picks. After all, eventually the luck with later picks has to run out.
 

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News Jackson Hately requests trade to Adelaide

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