Traded Jake Carlisle [traded w/ #23 and #44 for #5, #24 and Craig Bird]

[fishardansin]

See my post directly below yours. Our offer is so much better than pick 48 (it's actually 41, anyway) it's not even funny.

No club in their right mind that doesn't have an academy would trade you picks 5 and 63 for picks 41, 23 and 25 in this draft- which is being described by some as the worst/most shallow in 10 years, but pretty standard at the top end (which just tells you how much it must drop off later).

If this draft drops off as much as some are suggesting after the top 20 or so, then you would have to offer up something much, much better than pick 41 (along with picks 23 and 25) to get them to be willing to trade you picks 5 and 63.

Even in a standard/average draft I think picks in the 20's only have about a 50% chance of even playing a single game, or something like that and this is meant to be much more shallow than your standard draft, which reduces those odds.

The story is that Essendon will have their third pick upgraded to West Coast's 2nd pick. That ends up being around 35.

Carlisle + 35 for 5 is a very even trade, perhaps slightly in favour of Saints but still not too bad for us.

 

[mattrobbo26]

Obvously you forget about the whole PSD thing. You know that thing where players crap themselves at the 12th hour and decide to taker any reasonable dealrather than going into the chook lottery and possibly end up at Carlton, Brisbane or GC. Especially when they go straight in to a team that has won 3 flags in a row and most likely be contending for a 4th.

Anthony McCnville; "Jake, there is 1 hour until the trade period is over, you can pull tghe trigger and go to Hawks and potentially win a flag, or risk going to cellar dwellers Carlton/Brisbane or interstate to GC."

Jake Carlise; "Anthony, I wouldnt mind winning a flag, lets just sign with the Hawks"

Essendon community; "Damn straight bitch"

Considering that Carlisle was choosing between Carlton and StKilda anyway I don't see what it would matter to him if Carlton were to pick him up in the psd. Carlisle or his management haven't come out and said that they would take Hawthorn as a fall back option that was just bs and speculation by Dildoro.

 

[Sir Skid]

You have a quote from him I assume? Money is the reason he is not going to Hawthorn or Carlton.

It may well be the reason he's coming to the Saints but it's not the reason he's leaving Windy Hill.

 

[RoundCubic]

Obvously you forget about the whole PSD thing. You know that thing where players crap themselves at the 12th hour and decide to taker any reasonable dealrather than going into the chook lottery and possibly end up at Carlton, Brisbane or GC. Especially when they go straight in to a team that has won 3 flags in a row and most likely be contending for a 4th.

Anthony McCnville; "Jake, there is 1 hour until the trade period is over, you can pull tghe trigger and go to Hawks and potentially win a flag, or risk going to cellar dwellers Carlton/Brisbane or interstate to GC."

Jake Carlise; "Anthony, I wouldnt mind winning a flag, lets just sign with the Hawks"

Essendon community; "Damn straight bitch"

Maybe maybe not but then the saints still have pick 5 its not a zero sum game for the Saints
Essendons worst case is nothing for a best 22 player

 

[aussierulesrules]

The story is that Essendon will have their third pick upgraded to West Coast's 2nd pick. That ends up being around 35.

Carlisle + 35 for 5 is a very even trade, perhaps slightly in favour of Saints but still not too bad for us.

Hahahaha, you've got to be joking!

There is plenty of talk that some clubs want to be out of the draft by pick 30, so bad is it from that point on, which means that pick 35 is basically a "junk pick" and it effectively values Carlisle at pick 5, because 35 has so little value.

If he is as committed to getting to us as McConville suggests, then we won't be going all the way from asking for picks 23 and 25 to accepting 35!

 

[Sir Skid]

Do they really? I don't think anyone would be too surprised if this was Essendon's tactic. Most clubs would hold out for the best deal if they had a week to negotiate, they don't owe St Kilda anything. Might as well drive the hardest bargain because Hawthorn is waiting in the wings. Nothing like multiple suitors to improve your leverage.

Great, then by thr same logic you won't mind us getting the best deal for the Saints.

 

[Defacto]

And Essendon don't have to trade Carlilse to St Kilda at all. Round and round it goes.

Carlisle + 23 + 25 for pick 5 is an absurd offer.

Hey im happy if you dont trade him to us. Means we get him for free

 

[bltn]

What's with all these essendon supporters still going on about hawthorn? Obviously missed the bit from Carlisle's manager saying he wants to go to the saints and only the saints.

You don't think the Hawks will still be keeping in contact with Jake's manager ?
Discussing terms, opportunities, perhaps reviewing their player payments to see if they can come up with a package to satisfy Jake.

You better hope they don't make a convincing case !

 

[The GOAT]

This is going to PSD. Can't see either team agreeing to anything

No way he goes in the PSD. He will go to Hawthorn before it comes to that - too big a risk.

That said I expect a trade with the Saints will be worked out

 

[Defacto]

Surely Carlisle + 23 OR 25 for pick 5 is relatively fair for both parties without needing to get other clubs involved.

pick 5 = 1878 points
pick 23 = 815 points
pick 25 = 756 points

Carlisle + 23 + 25 for pick 5 effectively values Carlisle at pick 47/48. Are St Kilda serious?

The points system has no relevance outside father son and academy selections

It under values top end picks and over values lower ones

I mean would anyone trade pick 1 for a handful of 2nd and 3rd rounders...

 

[Duckworth]

It may well be the reason he's coming to the Saints but it's not the reason he's leaving Windy Hill.

It is one of the reasons. I'm sure EFC has been a pretty rubbish place to be around the last 3 years. All of that stuff together with his best friends leaving.

 

[Daniel Bradford]

Considering that Carlisle was choosing between Carlton and StKilda anyway I don't see what it would matter to him if Carlton were to pick him up in the psd. Carlisle or his management haven't come out and said that they would take Hawthorn as a fall back option that was just bs and speculation by Dildoro.

Apparently Cartlon wont pay him what he wants that why he decided against them, Hawks arent going to pay him what STKFC were going to. So, if you have 2 clubs willing to pay say $500k and one club is at the top of the ladder and 1 club is likely to win another wooden spoon and described by terry Wallace as having the worst list in recent memory. Which club do you think he is going to choose? Seriously?

And please don't reply with a simple "Oh Terry Wallace, what would that flog know?" Give us a decent reason as to why he would choose the PSD and end up at Carlton with still the possibility of going to Brisbane or GC?

PLEASE, 1 decent reason!!!!!

 

[The Falcon Strike]

The points system has no relevance outside father son and academy selections

It under values top end picks and over values lower ones

I mean would anyone trade pick 1 for a handful of 2nd and 3rd rounders...

It is relevant if the clubs involved intend to use those picks to subsequently get earlier picks by trading with Sydney or GWS

I'd imagine the Saints strategy would be to give up pick 5 and then try and get back in to GWS pick 8 or perhaps the Swans pick 14

 

[Defacto]

I dont think essendon fans realise how comfortable carlisle and the saints are with the PSD option

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Apparently Cartlon wont pay him what he wants that why he decided against them, Hawks arent going to pay him what STKFC were going to. So, if you have 2 clubs willing to pay say $500k and one club is at the top of the ladder and 1 club is likely to win another wooden spoon and described by terry Wallace as having the worst list in recent memory. Which club do you think he is going to choose? Seriously?

And please don't reply with a simple "Oh Terry Wallace, what would that flog know?" Give us a decent reason as to why he would choose the PSD and end up at Carlton with still the possibility of going to Brisbane or GC?

PLEASE, 1 decent reason!!!!!

If Carlton aren't meeting his wage demands - then how would they secure him in the PSD?

 

[Port182]

I dont think essendon fans realise how comfortable carlisle and the saints are with the PSD option

What makes you say that?

His manager says they would rather trade. JC says he wants Essendon to get fair compo.

If he goes PSD, Essendon will just pick him up again. And that if Blues/GC/Lions pass on him which they won't. Jake doesn't want to move interstate. He won't risk it.

 

[aussierulesrules]

The points system has no relevance outside father son and academy selections

It under values top end picks and over values lower ones

I mean would anyone trade pick 1 for a handful of 2nd and 3rd rounders...

My mind boggles at those who are putting a lot of stock in that new points system, which takes ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about this particular draft into account when allocating points.

 

[cartel]

5 for Carlisle+23 is reasonable.
5 for Carlise + 35 is stupid.

Using the points system to somehow conclude Carlisle is worth 40 is stupid. It's like using a Wagyu beef tenderness scale to grade tofu.

Think 5 for Carlise+23 is still slanted in Essendon's favour (and yes, I am very biased) - primarily because the quality for this draft is stated to be at the top end only. In this draft, it would be better for Essendon to have five than Hawthorn's picks.

We were thinking about taking 4 and 7 for pick 1 last year, having picks 4 and 5 would be a brilliant outcome for Essendon.

This is for a player that is definitely behind Hooker and Hurley.

 

[underthestars]

Think with how Carlisle feels about essendon he'll happily go in the psd and give them a big up yours! which they deserve from all their guinea pigs. carlisle just has to demand a contract only st kilda will meet - which he already has.

 

[Defacto]

What makes you say that?

His manager says they would rather trade. JC says he wants Essendon to get fair compo.

If he goes PSD, Essendon will just pick him up again. And that if Blues/GC/Lions pass on him which they won't. Jake doesn't want to move interstate. He won't risk it.

That statement occurred before dodoro went on two radio stations and threatened carlisle with a pay cut stating he would send him where he wanted too.

As per his managers statement, hawthorn just isnt an option anymore. Hell even hawthorn supporters accept it. Its why their coach said he thinks he will be a saint. The money just isnt there for him at hawthorn.

Like i said the saints have absolutely no problem with the PSD option and it probably will be their preferred destination if dodoro doesnt accept that deal.

 

[Rack Watts]

Think with how Carlisle feels about essendon he'll happily go in the psd and give them a big up yours! which they deserve from all their guinea pigs. carlisle just has to demand a contract only st kilda will meet - which he already has.

Do you have any insight into anything, at all?

 

[WEEVZ]

I dont think essendon fans realise how comfortable carlisle and the saints are with the PSD option

Carlisle and his manager have stated publicly they have no interest of going to the PSD so, that statement right there is complete nonsense.

 

[Defacto]

Do you have any insight into anything, at all?

So far your only insight has been to suggest a poor trade and then abuse anyone who doesnt agree

 

[Pinpoint Pass]

What makes you say that?

His manager says they would rather trade. JC says he wants Essendon to get fair compo.

If he goes PSD, Essendon will just pick him up again. And that if Blues/GC/Lions pass on him which they won't. Jake doesn't want to move interstate. He won't risk it.

There is zero chance that Essendon will pick him up. The other 3 though...

 

[aussierulesrules]

5 for Carlisle+23 is reasonable.

Up until last night I agreed and thought 5 for Carlisle and 23 was reasonable, but just didn't really suit us, whereas now that I've really had a think about what pick 23 might be worth in this particular draft (about pick 30 in a average draft, if that) I think it's too much, as I reckon that for a club to trade pick 5 for pick 23 in this draft, you'd probably have to throw in a pick around 8 (with 23), for them to be willing to do it. So IMO that trade values Carlisle at pick 8, which is IMO overs.