Traded Jake Carlisle [traded w/ #23 and #44 for #5, #24 and Craig Bird]

[WEEVZ]

So you can't tell me when and where Carlisle and his management publicly stated the PSD wasn't an option? I can post a link to a statement that shows Carlisle and his management think that the offer put forward is a fair one.

There was an interview at the start of the process, I can't find the exact link though. Its buried underneath all the recent stories. And of course Carlisle's management are trying to say its a fair deal they want to get him there as soon as possible. The fact of the matter is you never accept the first offer especially when its a big name player (Dangerfield is an exception because that would've been worked out weeks in advance).

 

[Scotland]

Ok then what would you like. Pick 5 or 2nd and 3rd rounders to the value of pick 5

Depends on the draft, whether my club is rebuilding or contending, how many list spots are available etc.

But you miss the point. You're not trading pick 5 for later picks. You're trading pick 5 for Jake Carlisle and a later pick or picks. If those picks 'equal' pick 5 then you're getting Carlisle for free.

 

[Defacto]

The fact that your talking about digging into the salary cap even further suggests STKFC values him higher than any rubbish trade proposal thus far

We have an abundance of cap space. We dont have an abundance of pick 5s

We are better off burning part of the cap and keeping pick 5

 

[cartel]

Putting so much emphasis into the points system is like classic BF trade suggestions - three 3/10 players equal one 9/10 player cause 3+3+3=9.

 

[nickh32]

Why would that affect us getting weller or JOM?

Pay 1.5 mill for 2 years like you justs said. Bringing in freeman at 300k a year. Bringing in at least 6 draftees. Further contract extensions isnt billings out of contract next year? Whoever you drafted last year wil be due an extension.

JOM would need to be on at least 500k a year.

 

[TS74]

Ess want pick 5 for Carlisle outright, too much in my opinion.. Ess would win
Stk now want Carlisle along with 23 & 25 for picks 5 & 63. Stk would win
I think it will end Carlisle and 25 for pick 5= fair for both clubs..

 

[aussierulesrules]

Saints fans are clueless. The points system was introduced to try and quantitatively value draft picks.

1 is better than 2 which is better than 3 etc. and the value diminishes down the line. It's not a linear scale.

It's just a guide, but when it spits out that you value a player worth a pick in the 40s for a player you're offering $600k+ then it's pretty obvious that something isn't right.

A simple question for Saints/Bombers fans is what is Carlisle worth in a simple exchange for one draft pick? 5? 10? 20? 120?

Yes I'm clueless. So would you seriously trade pick 5 in a draft where the top end are as strong as most years, and pick 63, for picks 23, 25 and 41, which are all in the area that the draft is meant to have dropped off significantly in quality?

If you would do that trade I would love to trade with you!!

To get a team to trade a pick like 5 (and a junk pick) in this year's draft, for picks like 23 and 25 (which are a 50% chance of being a total bust, especially in this draft, so you're effectively trading for just one of them, statistically speaking), you'd have to add in a pick under 20 without any doubt, for that team to even consider doing the trade.

That values him EXACTLY where you yourself said you value him!

 

[Scotland]

Ess want pick 5 for Carlisle outright, too much in my opinion.. Ess would win
Stk now want Carlisle along with 23 & 25 for picks 5 & 63

Just remove 23 or 25 and remove 63 and the whole thing is easy.

 

[WEEVZ]

Why pull out at the offer stage then hey?

Got a quote from carlton stating they only want him in the PSD?

They haven't pulled out, that deal is still on the table. But given Carlisle's preference to play for St Kilda, we're trying to come to a fair and equitable trade for both parties (essentially your club is asking for Carlisle + Pick 8, which is under no circumstances even remotely close to being fair for both clubs). From what I've seen most and perhaps all of the AFL media also believe that your initial offer was unrealistic.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...557469011?sv=1e970831e22e60246946869e870a459d

 

[Pinpoint Pass]

So can someone confirm if you can infact enter the PSD or ND with a 1 year contract only?

 

[Scotland]

To get a team to trade a pick like 5 (and a junk pick) in this year's draft, for picks like 23 and 25 (which are a 50% chance of being a total bust, especially in this draft, so you're effectively trading for just one of them, statistically speaking), you'd have to add in a pick under 20 without any doubt, for that team to even consider doing the trade.

That values him EXACTLY where you yourself said you value him!

What is this I don't even?

You're applying a 50% discount to the values of picks 23 and 25 because you think only one of them will come good?

 

[TS74]

Just remove 23 or 25 and remove 63 and the whole thing is easy.

Agree

 

[Scotland]

So can someone confirm if you can infact enter the PSD with a 1 year contract only?

You cannot.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Up until last night I agreed and thought 5 for Carlisle and 23 was reasonable, but just didn't really suit us, whereas now that I've really had a think about what pick 23 might be worth in this particular draft (about pick 30 in a average draft, if that) I think it's too much, as I reckon that for a club to trade pick 5 for pick 23 in this draft, you'd probably have to throw in a pick around 8 (with 23), for them to be willing to do it. So IMO that trade values Carlisle at pick 8, which is IMO overs.

The draft may be weak according to media people and BigFooty experts, but list managers would still be backing themselves to find good talent in the 20s and probably even 30s.

Pick 23 and 25 are still decent picks... which is why St.Kilda were laughed at from almost everybody when they asked for both.

 

[Defacto]

Pay 1.5 mill for 2 years like you justs said. Bringing in freeman at 300k a year. Bringing in at least 6 draftees. Further contract extensions isnt billings out of contract next year? Whoever you drafted last year wil be due an extension.

JOM would need to be on at least 500k a year.

600k plus in veterans allowance per year from here on

Many of the kids contracts were front ended

Any draftee we bring in will be on less than the player we are letting go. For instance fisher next year will be on much more than a 1st year draftee

Also theres cap increase and the small matter of the extra 10% in cap we can use.

Basically 1m plus there. Add veterans cap and its 1.6m minimum.

 

[nickh32]

Ess want pick 5 for Carlisle outright, too much in my opinion.. Ess would win
Stk now want Carlisle along with 23 & 25 for picks 5 & 63. Stk would win
I think it will end Carlisle and 25 for pick 5= fair for both clubs..

Which is annoying because before trade week this is what so many essendon fans were suggesting and alot of saints fans saying no way we aren't giving up 5.

 

[jsd09]

Saints fans are clueless. The points system was introduced to try and quantitatively value draft picks.

1 is better than 2 which is better than 3 etc. and the value diminishes down the line. It's not a linear scale.

It's just a guide, but when it spits out that you value a player worth a pick in the 40s for a player you're offering $600k+ then it's pretty obvious that something isn't right.

A simple question for Saints/Bombers fans is what is Carlisle worth in a simple exchange for one draft pick? 5? 10? 20? 120?

Couldn't agree more, IMO he is in the rage of 8-13.

So Pick 5 is worth 1878

If Essendon Cough up Pick 44 which is worth 362 points(pretty sure thats the pick we have after compo's etc) as part of the deal.

1878 - 362 = 1516 which would value Carlisle at around Pick 8.

If Essendon Cough up Pick 25(756 points)

1878 - 756 = 1122 which is a Carlisle valuation of Pick 15.

First Scenario - Essendon slightly wins.
Second Scenario - St Kilda clearly wins.

but asking for both 23+25 is ludicrous

Seems Jake Nial agrees with me too.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...oar-and-the-other-trades-20151017-gkbo1j.html

 

[WEEVZ]

Saints fans are clueless. The points system was introduced to try and quantitatively value draft picks.

1 is better than 2 which is better than 3 etc. and the value diminishes down the line. It's not a linear scale.

It's just a guide, but when it spits out that you value a player worth a pick in the 40s for a player you're offering $600k+ then it's pretty obvious that something isn't right.

A simple question for Saints/Bombers fans is what is Carlisle worth in a simple exchange for one draft pick? 5? 10? 20? 120?

He'd be worth in a Pick 8-10 range for mine.

 

[nickh32]

600k plus in veterans allowance per year from here on

Many of the kids contracts were front ended

Any draftee we bring in will be on less than the player we are letting go. For instance fisher next year will be on much more than a 1st year draftee

Also theres cap increase and the small matter of the extra 10% in cap we can use.

Basically 1m plus there. Add veterans cap and its 1.6m minimum.

Ok 1.6 mil cap. Your saying carlisle 1.5 mil. That leaves you with 100k. No room for freeman let alone new draftees you bring in.

 

[Pinpoint Pass]

You cannot.

I didn't think you could either and seem to remember 2 years being the minimum but Saints supporters continue to mention this so wanted to check.

 

[aussierulesrules]

What is this I don't even?

You're applying a 50% discount to the values of picks 23 and 25 because you think only one of them will come good?

Picks 23 and 25 only have a 50% chance of being any good whatsoever in an average/standard draft, but this is meant to be as bad a draft in that sort of area as there has been in 10 years, so those picks are more like pick 30 or so in just an average draft. The chance of getting someone of any quality in that sort of area is so much lower than at pick 5 it isn't funny, hence you would need to add a pick below 20 to the mix to get the club with 5 and 63 to even CONSIDER the deal.

Picks like 5 are like GOLD and that's why they don't get traded often and NEVER for picks like 23, 25 and something else above 20.

How about you tell me what you think a club would have to add to the mix if you replaced Carlisle with x and x was a single draft pick in THIS DRAFT:

5 + 63 = x + 23 + 25

What do reckon x would be in this draft, the worst in 10 years, after starting off strongly.

 

[cartel]

The draft may be weak according to media people and BigFooty experts, but list managers would still be backing themselves to find good talent in the 20s and probably even 30s.

Pick 23 and 25 are still decent picks... which is why St.Kilda were laughed at from almost everybody when they asked for both.

Just like asking for Wingard...most people found that pretty laughable.

Just like asking for four for Crameri...most people found that pretty laughable.

 

[Pinpoint Pass]

Just like asking for Wingard...most people found that pretty laughable.

Just like asking for four for Crameri...most people found that pretty laughable.

You mean for the CONTRACTED Ryder who was using a ****ing shifty loophole, that had no guarantee of suceeding, to get to his destination. Of course we asked, and knew wouldnt get.

We never asked for 4 for Crameri. More BF folklore/lies.

 

[aussierulesrules]

The draft may be weak according to media people and BigFooty experts, but list managers would still be backing themselves to find good talent in the 20s and probably even 30s.

Pick 23 and 25 are still decent picks... which is why St.Kilda were laughed at from almost everybody when they asked for both.

I guess that's why you guys are so keen to get them so you can trade them for pick 8, hey?

Lets be honest here, in this draft that is about the only reason why both our clubs are so keen to have 2 picks between 23 and 25, so that they can hopefully on-trade them to a club like GWS for one much higher pick.

 

[Scotland]

I didn't think you could either and seem to remember 2 years being the minimum but Saints supporters continue to mention this so wanted to check.

Yes but St Kilda fans have no idea. They seem to think that all of their salary cap space + veterans list space can be somehow put aside and given to Carlisle and all of their draftees and other players brought in will play for free.