Cherry picking is fun. Let's give it a try.
Etihad crowds vs interstate clubs.
Round 1 - 2018 - Essendon vs Adelaide - 43,016
Round 1 - 2018 - Carlton vs Gold Coast - 28,015
Round 5 - 2017 - Bulldogs vs Brisbane - 31,822
Round 15 - 2017 - Essendon vs Brisbane - 41,246
Hell you can even cherry pick a few Collingwood crowds in there.
Round 2 - 2015 - Collingwood vs Adelaide - 33,771
Round 16 - 2015 - Collingwood vs West coast - 36,527
Not shocked that Carlton only drew 21,340 against Freo. They are running last and playing dreadful footy. Despite this they were still averaging higher home crowds in Melbourne than we were. This despite being crap, having been crap for the most part of almost a quarter of a century and having a lower membership base than us. We are having a few leanish years coming off a golden era and our crowds crater - and we wonder why Richmond fans giggle at our fans being bandwagoners? I personally would love to prove them wrong - however at least they show up continually even when their team was woeful.
I really don't care if we are better than some teams at drawing versus interstate teams. This is Hawthorn - we should never settle about being middle of the pack at anything. Who cares if we are playing an interstate team? I am going to watch the Hawks play. I don't care which opponents Sicily is making look silly or who Mitchell is slaughtering in the clearances.
We have supporters who throw tantrums about crowds in Tassie yet probably don't show up to home games in Melbourne (not saying you didn't turn up against Adelaide and Sydney). These same fans also overlook the millions of dollars Tasmania hand over to us as well as the handy membership boost. All those that rant and moan about Tasmania never have a workable solution to this. Forgive me if I don't fawn over the hand-wringing over games in Tassie from people who have zero alternatives to the benefits we get from playing there.
Until Hawks fans start showing up to games in Melbourne people can quit it with the Tassie bashing. Once we have a compelling case to mount that Melbourne members are missing out on watching blockbusters against the Suns and St Kilda - then I will happily keep pocketing the Tassie cash and banking on the uptick in memberships.
Not cherry picking at all...
The reason I brought up the most recent Richmond and Collingwood Docklands crowds is because they, like us, are MCG tenant clubs and have their own issues with getting reserve seat allocated seating for their season ticket holders. Essendon, Carlton and for that matter W Bulldogs (who lets not forget were playing their 3rd home game after an unexpected premiership at the time) are less relevant given they have pre-existing reserve seat arrangements with the stadium...
As for Carlton outdrawing us to Melbourne home games, they've played 6 home games so far this season in Melbourne (against Gold Coast, Collingwood, West Coast, Essendon, Melbourne and Fremantle drawing 39,119).
Hawthorn have played home games in Melbourne against Collingwood, Melbourne, Sydney, West Coast and Adelaide drawing 37,515). Not making excuses (those Sydney and Adelaide home crowds were extremely poor) but Carlton have played an extra home game against a Victorian club (Essendon - and we outdrew the equivalent Essendon game by 9,000 this year (Ess v Haw drew 53,018 in round 7 2018, Carl v Ess drew 44,669 in round 8 2018). To say that Carlton have outdrawn us for Melbourne home games this season whilst true is a little deceptive.
In terms of drawing crowds against low drawing non Victorian clubs in Melbourne, Hawthorn sits 3rd behind Collingwood and Essendon since 2000 (around 32,000). This was posted on the crowd thread last year, will seek to find the table...
I believe that our crowds against Sydney and Adelaide had mitigating factors and were exceptions rather then the norm. Last season, when we were at our baseline (spending most of the seasons several games outside the top 8) we drew somewhat respectable crowds against West Coast (28,997 in the Sunday Twilight slot, after being 0-4 and coming off successive 86 point beltings to the Suns and Cats), Gold Coast (27,394 on a Saturday Afternoon, after being 4-7) and Sydney (52,181 on a Friday Night, after being 7-1-9 leading into the match).
Take time to consider that in 2018 (when we were 6-2) our match against the Swans also on a Friday Night drew 19,397 lower then the same game last year. Our games against Adelaide also drew much greater numbers in 2016 and 2017 with 37,420 turning out in round 2 last season and 45,781 turning up for Burgoyne's 300th in 2016
I posted this in the crowd thread on the main board...
Oh please. Hawthorn’s ‘home’ game against West Coast (28,077) at Docklands outdrew your matches against Hawthorn (27,983) and comparable with Richmond on Easter Sunday (29,153) and the Good Friday ‘blockbuster’ (33,966). And that was an early Sunday fixture too. So if Hawthorn, with its pathological hatred for Docklands can outdraw you to your home ground you really are in a world of trouble...
If your model relies on more then 15,000 opposition fans rocking up to your most desirable home games in order to draw 30,000 you really are buggered. Regardless of whether you have 45,000 ‘members’ or not.
The reality is that Hawthorn’s last 3 MCG home games have been impacted by mitigating factors (deplorable weather and the Socceroos). This is demonstrated in the MCC forecast attendances...
Hawthorn v Melbourne - 41,983 (MCC est 50,000)
Hawthorn v Sydney - 32,784 (MCC est 46,000)
Hawthorn v Adelaide - 26,784 (MCC est 35,000)
Now naturally those numbers would be a dream for North Melbourne but they are well down on corresponding fixtures in previous seasons. Namely the Sydney and Adelaide numbers...
Sydney
Rd 19 2017 52,181 at the MCG
Rd 9 2016 61,118 at the MCG
Rd 8 2015 63,319 at the MCG
Rd 21 2014 72,724 at the MCG
Rd 8 2013 54,724 at the MCG
So the Hawks v Swans game was 27,500 down on the 5 game average
Adelaide
Rd 2 2017 37,460 at the MCG
Rd 5 2016 45,782 at the MCG
Rd 3 2012 33,524 at the MCG
Rd 21 2009 32,824 at the MCG
Rd 10 2004 22,840 at the MCG
Including 2004 (when Hawthorn crowds were at their baseline) yesterday’s game was 8,000 down on the 5 game average.
What we have with our Melbourne fixtures are two lower then expected crowds (both with mitigating circumstances) which cost us about 27,500 and 8,000 in crowd attendance. What we have in Tasmania is a decade of declining, lower then expected attendances after reaching a Launceston peak in 2008/09 of about 17,500