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Lyon inherited a team that had made finals once in the last 5 years...
Much like the team JLo is in control of today.
Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2
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Lyon inherited a team that had made finals once in the last 5 years...
Much like the team JLo is in control of today.
The Feeder Club
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McCrae took over a team that finished 17th. Prelim in his first year. Kingsley a team that finished 16th. Prelim in his first year.
Exactly, ready to pop. Just as we are now. 5 years ago we were rebuilding. GWS and Coll, had the list profile to contend apart from a few to finish off. If JL can’t get us to the finals this year he is gone.
Have a look at the players in that team and their age profile when Lyon took over
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What will that tell me that I didn't just tell you?
The Feeder Club
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100% he should be gone (though I have my doubts that he will be the way this club is run).
But the post I originally responded to said he shouldn't be gone, he should be given 'as long as it takes' because the next coach would take 3-5 years to find his groove. Just no
Lyon is an experienced “finishing” coach and JL was a rookie
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If we are 0-5 , Justin Longmuir is in trouble.
Yeah it's 23 games but very likely we are in for a long season if things don't pan out well
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Oh.
Ok, fair enough. Lol, the way you wrote it I thought you disagreed with me and thought JLo was a good choice as coach.
Indeed. I know seasons can turn around, but a slow start would probably by the worst thing for him.
Round 15 last year Carlton were bottom 4 on 4 wins and Voss was a dead man walking. The club backed him in and they played in a Prelim. It's a good lesson.
DocT
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It seems to me that both sides of the for/agin Jlo argument are cherry picking examples to support their case. Fair enough, it's a very difficult area to derive some sort of objective, established measuring stick, there are too many variables/intangibles.
For me, as the season goes on, if we are not doing well AND on-field it looks like same-old-same-old then JLo is cooked, clearly his method/message is not getting through. When he goes would depend on who else is available.
The problem I see (which had been pretty widely acknowledged) is that the 'rebuild' started as a 'restump' and then didn't work due to A) players leaving, which meant we had to keep going over old ground, which meant we couldn't B) Finish the rebuild - ie the forward line. And, C) rotten luck.
Career ending injuries to Apeness, Morobito and Pitt can't be understated, nor the injuries to SHill and Fyfe which kept them out for significant periods. In an alternate universe this would have saved Lyon's career.
Josh Simpson's career never got off the ground either, which is on him but still a shame. Very very good skills.
The 'rebuild' team could have looked something like this:
Logue/Walker Pearce Ryan
Wilson/Clarke Cox Young
Hill/Acres Neale Langdon
Bennell Hogan DeBoar
Walters Apeness Schultz
Darcy Fyfe Mundy/Morobito
Switta, Hamling, Henry, Serong, Cerra (Amiss), Brayshaw (Weller), Pitt, Simpson, Matera, McCarthy, Lobb, Aish
In bold are the players that went to other clubs, making them stronger and us weaker. It's the single reason we are the 2nd least experienced club.
How much of this can JL control on game day? None of it. He's fighting with one arm tied behind his back.
If you just look at the midfield and forward line, it's been a complete disaster. I'm surprised we aren't dead last to be honest.
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They came out this year to say age is no longer an excuse. We will see how that goes. Can’t think of many teams in the last 25 years that have had sustained success at such a young age demographic. Obviously there are outliers (baby bombers etc) but the league is a lot closer in quality now, especially the top 12 or so teams so match hardened quality players become critical.
I think that messaging is for the players more than us. We're still defying the odds even playing finals this year let alone being in the top 4 mix.
They cheekily extended the 5 year plan out with Garlick's "best decade ever" speech though. Not sure it will sooth the masses if this year doesn't go to (fan) plan.
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I do wonder what it's like to be so selective in the data one uses to make their arguments.
You are clearly aware of the differences in the list profiles, so you're being wilfully and disrespectfully ignorant.
Who the hell tries to make points about who is a good coach and just ignores the most important variable of list age and experience?
No one has buying what you're trying to sell.
I doubt we will be 0-5 like seriously if we are 0-5 heading into the derby then i reckon JL shouldn't be the only one in trouble.
The whole of the football operations should be in the gun including Garlick and the executives team to the recruiters and list management.
Because if we get to that stage something is clearly not right with the joint and needs a cleanout from top to bottom.
DocT
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Hi Mattis,
If you are right and it is all so cut and dried that the most important variable of list age and experience matters so much above all else, how did those teams finish 17th and 16th? How did the lists age so rapidly and gain so much experience from Rd 23 to Rd 1?
DocT
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Hi all,
So much of our discussion about JLo's performance centers around our list age. But really it's the age/experience of the best 23 (26 if you allow for some injuries) that matters most. Does anyone know how we can access that info for the whole comp? That way we might get a more meaningful comparison.
So much of our discussion about JLo's performance centers around our list age. But really it's the age/experience of the best 23 (26 if you allow for some injuries) that matters most. Does anyone know how we can access that info for the whole comp? That way we might get a more meaningful comparison.
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The best you can probably do is to check the round 1 teams and account for missing players (if any).
We were consistently putting out the 2nd youngest or youngest playing squad last year.
I say bring back Gerad Neesham! At least he delivers a game style of attacking and flare - years ahead of his time, this time though he might have the cattle to execute it! We didn’t win many games but gee we had so much flare when he coached. At the least we were exciting.
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There is some selective arguments being used on both sides of this debate here I reckon. Whilst the pies were definitely a more experienced side than our current list when they jumped from 17th to a prelim, and unfair to compare to JL, it’s equally one sided when folk who are supporters of JL point to Damian Hardwick as the classic example of a coach that was nearly sacked in his 5th or 6th year before embarking on a blaze of glory for the next 5 or 6 years.
The reality is there are probably a dozen other coaches that could (and should) have been sacked much earlier than they were in recent AFL history. Actually, Buckley and Leon Cameron are two of them.
The fact is the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. JL is probably an average to good coach. Maybe the 7-10th best in the league. He’s not that bad, probably, but it’s equally likes he ain’t no Hardwick in disguise either. That’s at the very extreme end of the bell curve unfortunately for us.
The question then becomes - does a good to average coach win a flag with freo? I would say no. It would require some freakish luck that’s beyond even extreme probability. I think we need almost the best coach in the league to win a flag. And even then, things are stacked against us in this biased joke of a league.
So in summary, JL gets his 5th season but the pressure is on, big time. Bottom 6 again won’t cut it in 2024.
The reality is there are probably a dozen other coaches that could (and should) have been sacked much earlier than they were in recent AFL history. Actually, Buckley and Leon Cameron are two of them.
The fact is the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. JL is probably an average to good coach. Maybe the 7-10th best in the league. He’s not that bad, probably, but it’s equally likes he ain’t no Hardwick in disguise either. That’s at the very extreme end of the bell curve unfortunately for us.
The question then becomes - does a good to average coach win a flag with freo? I would say no. It would require some freakish luck that’s beyond even extreme probability. I think we need almost the best coach in the league to win a flag. And even then, things are stacked against us in this biased joke of a league.
So in summary, JL gets his 5th season but the pressure is on, big time. Bottom 6 again won’t cut it in 2024.
Great post although I don’t think we need to wait the whole 5th season. If his game style hasn’t improved he needs to go early.
I still maintain though he’s probably a fantastic senior assistant, but just isn’t savvy enough to lead a club. Almost a shame he ever took the top job as he’s just not suited for it in my opinion. He’s better suited as the levelling brains behind someone with more dare, flare and attack.
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