Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2010 Mock Draft

[Knightmare]

Hey knight, just interested as to why Brad Harvey didn't make your top 80 odd? With his great testing I would have expected he might get a gig with a club's late picks, or is it still rookie draft for him?

I see him as more of a rookie. Could go late, but not a whole lot seperating any of those.

Tested very well, but probably didn't quite show enough throughout the year.

Will be late-rookie in any case.

 

[Knightmare]

Did a pretty serious update of the draft order today.

Added in the compensation picks I expect to get used. From the 2nd round have a number of different players much higher than previously. Also added allot of rookie upgrades, late selections and added some who I think might slip through, but also be really handy rookies.

The number of selections per club will likely be a long way off at this stage but will probably fix up last minute.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Interested to know why you think the Hawks would go with a ruckman with their second pick Knightmare?

We have Bailey, Renouf, Hale, Lowden and Grimley on the list and two of those were picked up in the last few years. Appreciate we are light on with experience, but selecting Hickey won't fix that.

I would have thought if we went for a ruck we would in the rookie draft and grab an experienced back-up a la Skipper last year.

Thoughts???

 

[Knightmare]

Interested to know why you think the Hawks would go with a ruckman with their second pick Knightmare?

We have Bailey, Renouf, Hale, Lowden and Grimley on the list and two of those were picked up in the last few years. Appreciate we are light on with experience, but selecting Hickey won't fix that.

I would have thought if we went for a ruck we would in the rookie draft and grab an experienced back-up a la Skipper last year.

Thoughts???

Hickey might still go as a QLD Zone Selection and if he does I expect you will wait till the rookie draft to add another ruckman. It's more so on the basis of a best available selection. Had a great finish to the season and looks really promising. On quality is a top 40 guy in this draft.

I think there is a hole in the ruck division and another could be added. Don't have any faith in Bailey and Grimley is probably more of a KPP so I would add another. But it can be at any time. Not the no.1 priority by any means.

Top priority is adding to the forwardline + adding more outside speed. With a big bodied KPD + ruckman handy additions if an appropriate one is available.

In the bigfooty phantom draft will probably just go best available fit for the Hawks at each selection. Got some bargains last time with Joel Wilkinson (now QLD Zone Selection who I think will develop into a monster from this draft), Jamie Cripps who is worth a late 1st -early 2nd and Cameron O'Shea who is worth a 2nd-3rd round.
Will probably keep with the speed theme again.

 

[sharks attack]

Knightmare well done!
You had Chalwell at 113 he is from Esat fremantle. ive heard Collingwood and West coast keen. Has heaps of talent. Menagola too has a lot of upside as u meantioned.

 

[dlanod]

Hickey might still go as a QLD Zone Selection and if he does I expect you will wait till the rookie draft to add another ruckman. It's more so on the basis of a best available selection. Had a great finish to the season and looks really promising. On quality is a top 40 guy in this draft.

He already has, last week.

http://www.aflq.com.au/index.php?id=5&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=402&tx_ttnews[backPid]=4&cHash=499f346b2c

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare well done!
You had Chalwell at 113 he is from Esat fremantle. ive heard Collingwood and West coast keen. Has heaps of talent. Menagola too has a lot of upside as u meantioned.

Chalwell I haven't seen but going by limited footage he looks very draftable. Probably will go higher up the draft order but since I haven't seen enough of him I am hesitant to put him higher.

Menegola is in the same boat. Really don't have a great feel for the draft range of either of these. But again very draftabke.

He already has, last week.

http://www.aflq.com.au/index.php?id=5&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=402&tx_ttnews[backPid]=4&cHash=499f346b2c

Thanks for that. Heard he might but didn't have confirmation. Will update order again over the coming days.

 

[swansfan51]

I don't get the sudden burst of hype over Tyler Chalwell. What's the difference between him and someone like James Craig? Except for the fact Craig wasn't running around in Colts, he was winning selection as the u18 All Australian ruckman.

Like Craig, Chalwell is too short to play ruck at AFL level, and will probably end up as a tall defender. Unlike Craig, he doesn't have the 3rd highest vertical leap ever tested at draft camp. Yes he is more mobile and has a strong edge in disposals per game, but has not been tested against the very best of his age group like Craig was at the u18 championships. I use Craig as a comparison because he went pick 61 in a much weaker draft than this one. Maybe he should have asked his manager to make a cool highlights video.

 

[Quicky]

I don't get the sudden burst of hype over Tyler Chalwell. What's the difference between him and someone like James Craig? Except for the fact Craig wasn't running around in Colts, he was winning selection as the u18 All Australian ruckman.

Like Craig, Chalwell is too short to play ruck at AFL level, and will probably end up as a tall defender. Unlike Craig, he doesn't have the 3rd highest vertical leap ever tested at draft camp. Yes he is more mobile and has a strong edge in disposals per game, but has not been tested against the very best of his age group like Craig was at the u18 championships. I use Craig as a comparison because he went pick 61 in a much weaker draft than this one. Maybe he should have asked his manager to make a cool highlights video.

I don't consider him so much as a ruck option as a KP prospect. I personally think there is alot to like in Chalwell and as a KPP that may fall to later picks one of the few that I think offers value. His combination of having a great contested mark, good positional sense, strong endurance for a big guy (beep of 14.6) which is important in modern KPP, a tidy kick, the right size and that bit of mongrel. Plenty to like with Chalwell.

 

[Plugga]

If Jack Darling is available at Pick 20 - Freo will take him without a doubt

 

[JasRulz63]

Awesome work Knightmare.

I reckon the Lions would be absolutely wrapped if they got Heppell, Darling, Cripps, Hallahan and Green out of this draft, especially Darling at 25. Hope it happens!

 

[Knightmare]

If Jack Darling is available at Pick 20 - Freo will take him without a doubt

I don't think it is super clear cut. Certainly an option but I feel Lamb and Conca are the higher on the list.

A KPF is the need and Darling is from WA so on the surface is a logical one. But I think there will be varied views on Darling from clubs. There will be some KPFs available in the 2nd + 3rd round. One could be taken at any of these selections.
One thing on Darling stylistically, I think he will look allot better on a smaller ground than a Subiaco.
Intense tackler, physically strong presence and has a nice 55-60m kick. In Sydney would look fantastic.

Awesome work Knightmare.

I reckon the Lions would be absolutely wrapped if they got Heppell, Darling, Cripps, Hallahan and Green out of this draft, especially Darling at 25. Hope it happens!

Would be a very good draft for Brisbane if things work out this way. Darling is an ideal long term Jonathan Brown replacement. For the time being might be used as an Aaron Hamill type and hopefully he can develop out of that and into a KPF with time. Some really good immediate players in there and a good variety. Brisbane would be one of the "winners" if the draft works out like this.

 

[SydneyPhilly]

hey Knight, would love to get your thoughts on Jordan Treloar, 17 year old KPP. Could you see Sydney getting him at all?

 

[ajsuperstar]

do you think Zephi Skinner will be picked up if he isn't zoned by the GC?

 

[Knightmare]

hey Knight, would love to get your thoughts on Jordan Treloar, 17 year old KPP. Could you see Sydney getting him at all?

With the whole draft pretty even after about pick 35 Treloar is one of many who could find himself drafted. Really versatile tall who works hard and seems very draftable. Really wants to become an AFL footballer by my obserations. Hard to get a guage on that range, could go anywhere from the 50s through to a rookie selection with the evenness of this draft. Would be very surprised to see him go undrafted.

I think a number of clubs will have Treloar on their list. Sydney certainly could get him with a late selection if they are interested.

do you think Zephi Skinner will be picked up if he isn't zoned by the GC?

He's a really exciting kid. Haven't seen a whole lot of him but from all reports has a great personality and is a good kid. One who you'd want to see get a go. I think he would get a go as a rookie or with a bit of luck get picked up late in the national draft.

 

[ziad]

Thats the national Comp

WC take a Vic at 4. 1 & 2 are from WA and #3 is from SA and his motehr is from WA.

 

[Knightmare]

Thats the national Comp

WC take a Vic at 4. 1 & 2 are from WA and #3 is from SA and his motehr is from WA.

With my picks I usually put a fair weighting on home state. Probably more than I should. But would be very interesting if these picks work out this way for the WCE with all Victorians early.

 

[Basti28]

End of First Round Compensation Pick: (Brisbane) - Jamie Cripps (WA)
Height: 182cm, Weight: 78kg, DOB: 23.4.1992
Recruited from: Northampton GNFL
Style: Bradley Sheppard
Range: 14-37
Why: Linebreaking mid in Bradley Sheppard mold/ Travis Colyer. Plays with confidence. Quick run and carry player. Picks up the ball cleanly. Doesn’t fumble. Works hard and will provide the 2nd and 3rd efforts consistently. Chases hard. Small defender who can play up the ground. Reminds me a little of Bradley Sheppard. Good reader of the play. Kicking is ok on both sides. Applies good defensive pressure around the stoppages. His tackling doesn’t stick as much as I’d like but the effort he gives is nice and with time I think that is an area he will become quite good at. Has a bit of fire in him. Could be a late riser and could go 1st round after having a great finish to the season.

End of First Round Compensation Pick: (North Melbourne) – Luke Parker (VIC)
Height: 182cm, Weight: 82kg, DOB: 25/10/1992
Recruited from: Dandenong
Style: Marc Murphy
Range: 8-30
Why: Parker at this stage really represents outstanding value here if available and could very easily go 10 + positions higher, but with very little separating anyone in the top 35 someone will have to slide. Parker is a big time accumulator who was not as good as expected this season which has probably seen him drop to this stage but he has a really high work rate and wins plenty of contested possessions. Very strong mark overhead for his size. Not super speedy but has good body strength for his size. Handy goal kicking midfielder who could fit into this team well, sooner rather than later. Upside is questionable but a very solid selection who at this stage is an absolute bargain.

Knightmare, do you think North might look at Cripps seeing as it is becoming likely that North will have pick 27? Cripps seems much better suited to our needs.

http://www.kangaroos.com.au/latestnews/newsarticle/tabid/4912/newsid/104845/default.aspx

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, do you think North might look at Cripps seeing as it is becoming likely that North will have pick 27? Cripps seems much better suited to our needs.

http://www.kangaroos.com.au/latestnews/newsarticle/tabid/4912/newsid/104845/default.aspx

Will be interesting, but not completely unexpected that North Melbourne will be the only club using their compo pick. Probably quite a good move if none of the other clubs are.

It comes down to whether North Melbourne take Isaac Smith 1st round as I suggested will happen in my mock draft.

If you take Smith at 17 and if there are no appropriate KPPs available, then I'd look to a best available (which I suggested as Parker because he does represent superior value at that stage to the others available in the way Bastinac did last year).

But if you take perhaps for example Jayden Pitt at 17, every chance you take Cripps with your compo pick if he is available. Would be a very good choice considering needs.


My recommendation to North Melbourne is don't wait around till the compo pick to add Smith/Cripps. If you like Smith just take him at 17 and take best available at the compo pick because there will be plenty of good players available there regardless of the earlier selection order. Not a whole lot seperating the compo pick and a pick 10 positions higher, so you might be able to snag a very good value player even if it isn't necessarily a need.

With Smith there is the possibility he becomes a star and I feel he would be a really good compliment to your excisting players so he isn't one I'd pass up.

 

[Axel.]

Hey Knight what are your thoughts on Cook? As in his strengths and weaknesses. I was a big fan of him at the start of the year and do you think he'll be available at 25?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knight what are your thoughts on Cook? As in his strengths and weaknesses. I was a big fan of him at the start of the year and do you think he'll be available at 25?

I think there is a good chance that he is available. Far from certain but I think enough players have just pushed ahead of him to see him fall.

I'm not a super big fan of Cook. Not one i've watched in great detail because I also thought he would go a little higher, but I'm not sold on him.

Strengths: Very accurate set shot goal kicker. Strong overhead. Strong on the lead. Agile. Good height. Fairly athletic. Good versatility.

The weakness is upper body strength and can't really out muscle his opponents. Will struggle at first at AFL level, but that should develop without too much difficulty. Strength can always improve.

My main criticism of Cook isn't so much a weakness. But I don't think he has that intangible something required for a forward to be a star forward. Just doesn't seem to have that something that makes him "special" in the way a Lance Franklin, Brendan Fevola, Steve Johnson or Alan Didak do. In forwards I look for talent over personality because you are looking for that something rare rather than someone with the character of a Brett Kirk or Nick Maxwell up forward.

I don't use this logic for mids or backman which infact I usually prefer personality over talent, but for forwards it is the thing I look for most and put an almost unfair weighting on.

This isn't to say Cook is without talent. This is far from true. But just not the standout talent I would personally want from a potential 1st round KPF.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If you think Geelong are likely to be keen on Smith, Knightmare, then why do you think they'll give North a crack?

If we are keen, I reckon there's every chance we take Smith at 15 (if Watson/McCarthy are gone), in the knowledge that there will be plenty of good mids available in the 20's, as you say. Having 2 first round picks gives us a certain degree of flexibility with out strategy.

 

[Knightmare]

If you think Geelong are likely to be keen on Smith, Knightmare, then why do you think they'll give North a crack?

If we are keen, I reckon there's every chance we take Smith at 15 (if Watson/McCarthy are gone), in the knowledge that there will be plenty of good mids available in the 20's, as you say. Having 2 first round picks gives us a certain degree of flexibility with out strategy.

I don't think Geelong will take Smith at 15 as the recent herald sun mock draft suggests. But if he is available at 23 I think he would be "one of the guy who would get closely looked at". Good fit because he does have that speed and hurt factor that would add allot, but pick 15 would for mine be boarderline overpaying for a guy who while he might become an out an out star is at the same time far from a sure thing.

McCarthy I feel might go to Gold Coast because they could do with a developing key position defender. Bock isn't young and they need a key position defender to be developing, so McCarthy is a logical, high upside choice.

If available he would be an option, but there are other better value players available for mine. Lycett with my predicted order represents the best value at 15 and is for mine too good to let slide further. 23 I'd add the appropriate midfielder, Brodie Smith if available is a bargain and in a good team I think he could be a really good player. Otherwise a Luke Parker or Cameron Guthrie could be available and again be great value selections.
So I'd wait till 36 to add your KPD. Litherland or possibly the recently popular Chalwell are the better options.

There is a bit of flexibility with the approach, but pick 15 I would look for best available, then address the needs like this to maximise the value you get at both 23 + 36.

Watson from all recent sources is expected to go somewhere in the 2nd round which is really interesting. Obviously they are looking for more athletic KPPs rather than the big bodied ones which is interesting.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I don't think Geelong will take Smith at 15 as the recent herald sun mock draft suggests. But if he is available at 23 I think he would be "one of the guy who would get closely looked at". Good fit because he does have that speed and hurt factor that would add allot, but pick 15 would for mine be boarderline overpaying for a guy who while he might become an out an out star is at the same time far from a sure thing.

McCarthy I feel might go to Gold Coast because they could do with a developing key position defender. Bock isn't young and they need a key position defender to be developing, so McCarthy is a logical, high upside choice.

If available he would be an option, but there are other better value players available for mine. Lycett with my predicted order represents the best value at 15 and is for mine too good to let slide further. 23 I'd add the appropriate midfielder, Brodie Smith if available is a bargain and in a good team I think he could be a really good player. Otherwise a Luke Parker or Cameron Guthrie could be available and again be great value selections.
So I'd wait till 36 to add your KPD. Litherland or possibly the recently popular Chalwell are the better options.

There is a bit of flexibility with the approach, but pick 15 I would look for best available, then address the needs like this to maximise the value you get at both 23 + 36.

Watson from all recent sources is expected to go somewhere in the 2nd round which is really interesting. Obviously they are looking for more athletic KPPs rather than the big bodied ones which is interesting.

Certainly. High risk high reward. Some might see at as overreaching, but Wells has shown several times, with Mackie way back when, and with Mitch Brown in 08 to a certain extent, that if he sees a player he really likes, he's prepared to go with the first pick even though it's perceived as overpaying. Hence my point about if Geelong like Smith, pick 15 is a possibility.

FWIW, while I respect your material, I don't think we'll take a ruckman early, we may not even do so at all.

My main point re Smith was in response to your rationale that North would be willing to reach for him at 17, in the knowledge that there'll be plenty of good mids 10 picks later. Which is probably true, and of course applies equally to us. Hence if Wells likes Smith, and is going with mids the first 2 picks, then there's no reason to let North have a look at him, because there will be plenty of good mids at 23 also. If Geelong wanted Smith, the only reason to risk someone else taking him would be if the 2nd first round pick is someone we have to take at 15 because they won't be there at 23 (i.e. thus probably not a mid) such as Watson or McCarthy, or in your example, Lycett.

It will be interesting if Watson goes later. Personally, I'd be happy to take him in the first round, and I don't see him getting past Carlton. But hey, you could well be right and I could well be wrong. If we can't get Watson, I reckon we'll wait til later for a KPD, on that, you and I are in total agreement.

 

[Knightmare]

Certainly. High risk high reward. Some might see at as overreaching, but Wells has shown several times, with Mackie way back when, and with Mitch Brown in 08 to a certain extent, that if he sees a player he really likes, he's prepared to go with the first pick even though it's perceived as overpaying. Hence my point about if Geelong like Smith, pick 15 is a possibility.

FWIW, while I respect your material, I don't think we'll take a ruckman early, we may not even do so at all.

My main point re Smith was in response to your rationale that North would be willing to reach for him at 17, in the knowledge that there'll be plenty of good mids 10 picks later. Which is probably true, and of course applies equally to us. Hence if Wells likes Smith, and is going with mids the first 2 picks, then there's no reason to let North have a look at him, because there will be plenty of good mids at 23 also. If Geelong wanted Smith, the only reason to risk someone else taking him would be if the 2nd first round pick is someone we have to take at 15 because they won't be there at 23 (i.e. thus probably not a mid) such as Watson or McCarthy, or in your example, Lycett.

It will be interesting if Watson goes later. Personally, I'd be happy to take him in the first round, and I don't see him getting past Carlton. But hey, you could well be right and I could well be wrong. If we can't get Watson, I reckon we'll wait til later for a KPD, on that, you and I are in total agreement.

It's really up to interpretation and at this stage there is no wrong answer. Would be a little surprised if anyone else had the same top 15 to be honest.

For mine I just have the top 15 pretty much set. A ruckman isn't a need, but when you have the chance to add a ruckman of this quality its what I'd recommend.

I.Smith is every chance, but I do feel there is more of a difference between 15 and 17 than there is between 17 and 27 which is why I have him slightly lower. I do like him and took him in the bigfooty phantom draft at 19 for Hawthorn, it comes down to where his value starts to kick in and for mine he starts to around pick 17. I have enjoyed Geelong's recent tendency to take an interesting player with their first selection, but they can't go wrong with Lycett even if it isn't a super high need. Such a high quality ruckman who would without a doubt go higher if any club had a slight future need for a ruckman.

Watson I also view a 1st rounder on quality. But without great speed he does get exposed on the lead and clubs probably don't view his upside as super high. I think he will turn out fine, just his draft position might be lower than anyone on here yet realises.

If a KPD is such a high level need as many fans seem to suggest, then I think at 36 there will be a range of possibly very good options available. Litherland and Chalwell at present are the popular options.