Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[adam10]

Knightmare, do you think the chances are high that Macrae can take his game style at TAC CUP level and quite easily transfer that to AFL level, he loves to take on players and he usually does it very easily. He also looks like he is barely under any pressure as he brushes off players.

 

[Knightmare]

Hearing Zac Williams is close to being zone selected by GWS. He was the only NSW/ACT player invited to the national draft combine and finished 6th in the agility test. Thoughts on him?

Strong inside player. Wins his own ball and big time contested ball type. Wins the clearance and tackling ability good. Performed well throughout the u18 champs and can add some real grunt to a midfield.

Potential pickup and don't mind his game so it will be interesting to see whether GWS take him. Would have to be a consideration.

Hey Knightmare two questions. Firstly you have Port down for pick 29 instead of Hawthorn. Is that who you think the hawks will take?? Also I know there has been a few questions on Jed Anderson, but do you think he has the tools to become an elite midfielder at the HFC??

Thought I had fixed up my selections but will make sure again tonight all the updated selections are correct.

I think Hawthorn might look at Pongracic or Hrovat with that first selection depending on availability.

Anderson I think has the opportunity to be a very good midfielder for Hawthorn but probably not elite. Has been an excellent junior for a number of years and has been dominant for NT for some time but probably more a versatile midfielder who is a part of the midfield rotation rather than say your next generation Mitchell/Sewell replacement. Still very hard at the footy and I think will be a very good midfielder at the next level if he can settle into life in Vic.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, do you think the chances are high that Macrae can take his game style at TAC CUP level and quite easily transfer that to AFL level, he loves to take on players and he usually does it very easily. He also looks like he is barely under any pressure as he brushes off players.

I think Macrae's game style is very tranferable to AFL level. I see him as another Pendlebury and I wouldn't be shocked if he went on to have a better career than Whitfield. It's just so effortless for him and he just dodges, weaves and has that rare ability to slow the game down and make it go at the pace he wants it to.

Special player and one I'm very excited to see develop over the next few years. Once he puts more size onto his frame and develops his inside game (with his skill set pretty confident it can develop for him) he will be an excellent player.

 

[Grockadoc]

Knightmare, I see you have Richmond taking Garner at 9. Hypothetically, If Kurt Tippett goes into the ND, you would expect him to be taken before Pick 9, so that effectively makes our pick 9, pick 8, and would most likely see one of Plowman, Macrae, Mayes, O'Rourke slide. If this happens, who would be the most likely to slide, and if they do, would you take them at pick 9 over Garner?

I know Garner presents a need for the Tigers, but so does Vlastuin, who looks to be a good to go replacement for Tuck.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, I see you have Richmond taking Garner at 9. Hypothetically, If Kurt Tippett goes into the ND, you would expect him to be taken before Pick 9, so that effectively makes our pick 9, pick 8, and would most likely see one of Plowman, Macrae, Mayes, O'Rourke slide. If this happens, who would be the most likely to slide, and if they do, would you take them at pick 9 over Garner?

I know Garner presents a need for the Tigers, but so does Vlastuin, who looks to be a good to go replacement for Tuck.

I think only Sydney will have the salary cap space to accomodate Tippett.

They are turning over their list very heavily (not only trading away talent but then delistings also) and I see them as the only potential destination - whether it be national draft or preseason draft.

Of those early selections if say a Stringer moves into that top 10 then possibly Plowman slides out of that top group with Macrae that other chance - and if available for Richmond I can highly recommend selecting him.

Garner is more an option at 9, but if a notable slider is there - say Macrae then I expect Richmond go this way on draft day.

 

[Hotpiescoldbeers]

If Ben Jacobs enters the draft, what pick do you think he will go for?

 

[Knightmare]

If Ben Jacobs enters the draft, what pick do you think he will go for?

Likely somewhere in the 2nd round. So somewhere in the 30-35 range or thereabouts. Maybe a Richmond might take a look and consider him as another rotational midfielder.

 

[halfback dasher]

Geezuss you do a great job KM ......

 

[Bert Man]

I haven't heard much about him this season to be honest. Was unlucky to have missed out last year but if selected more a rookie selection I'd expect.

I dont know if we are talking about the same Nick Murphy. I am refering to Nick Murphy from the South Adelaide Panthers. What are his chances?

 

[Stamos]

Hi Knightmare,
I'm interested that in your latest update you have Carlton taking Menzel ahead of Stringer.
Can you clarify why this is your thinking?
You do a great job.
Thanks.

 

[MR]

KM, the more I think about Vlastuin as a prospect, the more I think he is a dead-set top 10 pick. Best leader of his pool, strong body, exquisite skills, great endurance, super work rate, arguably the best pure inside player of the draft and loves the hard stuff. On top of that, one of the smarter footballers. I agree with his position on your power rankings but on your actual mock draft, there are just some players in front of him which are quite surprising.

I'll leave you with this.
I think the main reason for the drop of Vlastuin was his Championships. Plowman didn't even have a Championships, yet he is a top 10 pick. Why? Well because he has shown incredible talent at TAC level. Well, earlier in the year you had Vlastuin at pick 2 on his talent at TAC cup level and he never really did drop off from his early form.

 

[Knightmare]

Different Nick Murphy. Was thinking of the Victorian key forward from last year. The SA Nick Murphy has done well this season and has taken a step forward through the midfield. As such a young leader could intrigue but I can't say I know the level of interest.

Hi Knightmare,
I'm interested that in your latest update you have Carlton taking Menzel ahead of Stringer.
Can you clarify why this is your thinking?
You do a great job.
Thanks.

Menzel has some real ability. If not for knee queries would be a certain top 10 if not potential top 5 selection.

With Stringer there are some queries on position. Has played mostly as a key forward this year. So is he a key forward, midfielder? I see him as a midfielder but we'll see what happens. He also has a very mature body for someone at his age and probably doesn't have as much physical growth left as some of the other top end prospects.

Could go either way though. Both are 1st rounders and just where they land in the 1st round is yet to be determined.

KM, the more I think about Vlastuin as a prospect, the more I think he is a dead-set top 10 pick. Best leader of his pool, strong body, exquisite skills, great endurance, super work rate, arguably the best pure inside player of the draft and loves the hard stuff. On top of that, one of the smarter footballers. I agree with his position on your power rankings but on your actual mock draft, there are just some players in front of him which are quite surprising.

I'll leave you with this.
I think the main reason for the drop of Vlastuin was his Championships. Plowman didn't even have a Championships, yet he is a top 10 pick. Why? Well because he has shown incredible talent at TAC level. Well, earlier in the year you had Vlastuin at pick 2 on his talent at TAC cup level and he never really did drop off from his early form.

Not sure Vlastuin quite goes top 10 on draft day but looks a certain 1st rounder. The general feel seems that he is more a mid-late 1st rounder so I'll mostly keep him more in the range he is expected to go on draft day even if I rate him probably that little bit more highly.

I agree with many of your comments about Vlastuin but I do have other mids ahead of him still. Wines as a similar inside mid is the stronger inside ball winner. Vlastuin I have more starting off a back flank and later in his career working into a midfield.

With Plowman it is a speculative call and missing such a large portion of the season you'd think that there is the chance he slides, but he is rated very highly by those who have had the opportunity to see him in the past and then this season before injury. Generates some meaningful drive like few other key defenders by foot. He almost has the feel of a classy midfielder and has really rare evasiveness for someone his size and just does some really rare things you don't often see in a KPP.
I think he will be rated pretty similar to Tomlinson from last year and I have Plowman going in that similar range as a result being that better KPP this year.

 

[Thunderstruck]

Wayne Carey was a tool.
Nathan Buckley was a tool.
Michael Voss was a tool. (On the field mostly)
Jack Riewoldt is a tool.
Taylor Walker is a tool.
Hayden Ballantyne is a tool.
Stephen Milne is a tool.

1000 other examples of this.

What do they all have in common apart from being self centered and arrogant?

I'm fairly new to this "100kg as a junior ruckman is a disadvantage" angle with Grundy.

Since when has that ever been the case with young players? It's a hell of alot easier to put on muscle when you have the existing frame, than trying to stack 20kg's onto a stringbean.

Grundy's strength doesn't match his size, when it does, he will be a genuine gorilla ruck/forward.


The other angle that's hilarious is the Hickey is "new" to football angle of Grundy, Grundy only picked up football a couple of years ago also!

You should know me by now Pykie that I am not trying to take the tool out of the footballer but more the fact that I am pointing out what he is like. I'm hoping he would grow out of his teenage type of immaturity because despite what those other guys are that you mention, there is a difference on the field. Grundy won't change in a hurry either, and it won't affect his ability in my eyes and nor should it in anyones.

 

[Thunderstruck]

Self-centred not so sure:



But like so many driven people could be taken the wrong way at times.

And nothing wrong with that at all! That is excellent and shows he has matured since his Under 16 days. He still has that streak but there is good in there and shows a character that can be built up into a fine young man.

 

[Thunderstruck]

Interesting to note.

I don't see it hurting his career - so many similar self-centred types have gone on to have success. Some later develop as people, others don't but in any case with the improvement he has shown, he like others before him can go on to have success. Self-centred or not.

Well that's the thing and like I've said in the above posts, I'm much more interested in the fact that he CAN play footy. And is a very good ruck. The best junior ruck since NN easily and is on a similar level to where he was at the same age, just perhaps lacking that absolute freak factor but that aside his ruck work and strength is unrivalled for a teenage ruckman about to be drafted. He isn't my #1 or my #2 but he's in my top 5.

 

[WWSD]

Knightmare what sort of player do you think the Hawks will get with pick 29? An inside midfielder, an outside midfielder or a young key forward?

 

[Bert Man]

KM I just wanted to thank you for answering all my questions your an absolute star!

 

[SumTingWong]

Hi KM,
I'm interested if you have any more info or a further opinion on Harley Walshe. On paper sounds too good to go at #77. Any reasons he could go earlier or reasons he will go so late? Surely a kid who has played well on both Daniher and Membrey would go higher considering the seemingly lack of good KPD's this year?

#77 St Kilda – Harley Walshe (VIC – KPD)
Height: 197cm, Weight: 83kg, DOB: 23/02/1994
Recruited from: Western Jets
Style: Nathan Brown
Player comparison:
Range: 30-rookie
Profile: Tall key defender best known for his shutdown game and has had success against many of the better TAC key forwards in Daniher and Membrey demonstrating that he might have something. Nice height for a key defender and has demonstrated good closing speed and ability to play close, accountable football to a high level. Rebounding game can improve but as a shutdown player there is plenty of promise.

 

[Yoda_]

Knightmare

If Essendon take James Stewart at 35, think the Essendon board will go into meltdown. Gumbleton resigned, Daniher incoming, Hooker stayed allowing Hurley to stay forward. All points to a KPP being taken later in the draft. A highly rated mid looks increasingly likely to fall to 35, watch this space for a Rory Atkins or Laine Wilkins to pop up. My bet would be Josh Simpson, but I anticipate him to be gone by 35.

 

[Yoda_]

Also Knightmare

Humble Minion seems to think that Jacob Ballard is eligible for next years draft. is this true?

 

[Focal#32]

Also Knightmare

Humble Minion seems to think that Jacob Ballard is eligible for next years draft. is this true?

Minion is probably confusing Billings and Ballard.
Ballard in this year and is late draft somewhere.
Billings is next year and top 5 somewhere.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare what sort of player do you think the Hawks will get with pick 29? An inside midfielder, an outside midfielder or a young key forward?

Most likely an inside midfielder. If Hrovat is available I can see Hawthorn snapping him up pretty quickly but I can also see Pongracic as another Hawthorn would really like.

Mitchell and Sewell are both nearing the back end of their respective careers so probably time to add that next inside midfielder first if an appropriate one is available with those outside types, even after losing Young still a clear strength with maybe a Hill to come in as a regular next year.

A key forward is possibly but I see Hawthorn liking a structure with Franklin, no.1 ruckman, no.2 ruckman who can play forward then Gunston without that extra KPP some other teams have.

Hi KM,
I'm interested if you have any more info or a further opinion on Harley Walshe. On paper sounds too good to go at #77. Any reasons he could go earlier or reasons he will go so late? Surely a kid who has played well on both Daniher and Membrey would go higher considering the seemingly lack of good KPD's this year?

#77 St Kilda – Harley Walshe (VIC – KPD)
Height: 197cm, Weight: 83kg, DOB: 23/02/1994
Recruited from: Western Jets
Style: Nathan Brown
Player comparison:
Range: 30-rookie
Profile: Tall key defender best known for his shutdown game and has had success against many of the better TAC key forwards in Daniher and Membrey demonstrating that he might have something. Nice height for a key defender and has demonstrated good closing speed and ability to play close, accountable football to a high level. Rebounding game can improve but as a shutdown player there is plenty of promise.

Probably less exposed relative to some of the other KPPs. I like his game and at his size is promising - but haven't not made the metro squad might be a sneaky later draft option.

Also top end there are some really good key defence options in Plowman and Clurey with some viewing Jaksch as a key defender and others liking T.Smith and others Rodda so with that many key defenders potentially going high it's unlikely Walshe features anywhere early and likely goes later/rookie.

Knightmare

If Essendon take James Stewart at 35, think the Essendon board will go into meltdown. Gumbleton resigned, Daniher incoming, Hooker stayed allowing Hurley to stay forward. All points to a KPP being taken later in the draft. A highly rated mid looks increasingly likely to fall to 35, watch this space for a Rory Atkins or Laine Wilkins to pop up. My bet would be Josh Simpson, but I anticipate him to be gone by 35.

I'm not so convinced with Essendon's KPPs.

Daniher is coming. Hurley is a star.

Outside of this I'm not so convinced and depth reasonably limited. Carlisle is the most promising of the rest. Haven't liked Hooker's game at all this year. Pears ok but again there are better key defenders. Gumbleton I don't see lasting with Daniher to go ahead of him and Fletcher is surely in his final season so I can see that depth shrinking pretty quick and it's probably time for that next generation group to come through depending on how the strength of mids is seen.

Atkins could go in around that range. Wilkins another potential possibility.

Simpson probably won't be available. I'd probably like to see him land with an SA club - really played his better footy in 2011 when he moved to SA and I think his football would really benefit from playing there again.

Also Knightmare

Humble Minion seems to think that Jacob Ballard is eligible for next years draft. is this true?

Ballard is certainly available this year. 18 years old currently.

 

[fronkalicious]

Km, dogs fan here. Very nervous that the top 4 goes as follows:

1. Whitfield
2. Toumpas
3. O'rourke
4. Macrae

Who would you take if you're the dogs in that scenario?

 

[Knightmare]

Km, dogs fan here. Very nervous that the top 4 goes as follows:

1. Whitfield
2. Toumpas
3. O'rourke
4. Macrae

Who would you take if you're the dogs in that scenario?

I'd take Grundy and Wines and still walk away pretty happy with things. Might mean more KPPs + outside pace come later but early it's all about getting the best possible players and Grundy and Wines would be big long term pieces.

 

[fronkalicious]

I'd take Grundy and Wines and still walk away pretty happy with things. Might mean more KPPs + outside pace come later but early it's all about getting the best possible players and Grundy and Wines would be big long term pieces.

Thanks km.

You seem convinced stringer is too big a risk at 5 or 6. Dogs board seem more in favour of taking him.

Any chance he could become a pavlich style full forward for us?