Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Stewart2Austin Reborn]

Hey Knightmare, at this stage who would you rate as the best small defenders?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, at this stage who would you rate as the best small defenders?

No real standouts yet. Aaron Heppell late draft might be one to look out for.

With the small defenders I see more clubs looking at the mature options as happened this year with the majority of those mature agers being those small and medium defenders so this might be something to look out for next year with more clubs looking for those more mature options down back with the high success rate those types have had of late.

 

[CallumBartlett]

--
*Potentially high level AFL footballers*
11. Dwayne Wilson (SA – Mid)
12. Luke Reynolds (SA – Fwd/Mid)
13. Trent Dumont (SA - Mid)
14. Matt Scharenberg (SA – Mid/Def)
15. Kurt Heatherley (NZ – KPD – Haw)
16. Lewis Taylor (VIC – Mid)
17. Christian Salem (VIC - Mid)
18. James Tsitas (VIC – Mid)
19. Billy Hartung (VIC - Mid)
20. Nicholas Bourke (VIC - Mid)
21. Clayton McCartney (VIC – Fwd/Mid)
22. Nicholas Robertson (WA – Mid)
23. Jarman Impey (VIC – Fwd)
24. Isaiah Miller (VIC – Mid)
25. Aiden Franetic (VIC – Mid)
26. Nathan Freeman (VIC – Mid)
27. Darcy Hourigan (SA – Fwd/Def)
28. Alex Spina (SA – Mid)
29. Eli Templeton (TAS - Mid)
30. Ben Lennon (VIC - Fwd)
31. Jacob Coniglio (WA – Mid)
32. Cameron Conlon (VIC – KPF/Ruck)
33. Blake Acres (WA – Mid)
34. Isaac Conway (Brisbane – QLD – Mid)
35. Cain Tickner (QLD – KPP)
:

Tickner is already committed to Brisbane through the academy.

EDIT: Does that mean you think Brisbane will have a very good draft even before it starts by grabbing Conway, Tickner who you consider High level players?

 

[Asgardian]

Round 1:


#2 Port Adelaide – Luke Dunstan (SA –Mid/Fwd)
Height: 184cm, Weight: 82kg, DOB: 29/01/1995
Recruited from: Woodville-West Torrens
Style: Dustin Martin
Player comparison:
Range: 2-10
Profile: Dunstan is a dominant inside midfielder with a really strong body. Really damaging player who will not only win his own footy every time he goes in for it but then will do big damage with it. Dunstan has very damaging footskills and is a really natural finisher anywhere near goal. Not only is Dunstan an exceptional inside player but he can also swing forward, take a mark and hit the scoreboard when given the opportunity and I expect he will continue to be a very damaging player at the next level.

Don't much like Port at 2nd last ...

#12 Adelaide - Dwayne Wilson (SA – Mid)
Height: 177cm, Weight: 72kg, DOB: 17/01/1995
Recruited from: Sturt
Style: Lewis Jetta
Player comparison:
Range: 10-25
Profile: Wilson is a very damaging outside player who you just want the ball in the hands of. Has some genuine linebreaking pace but then also has the damaging footskills to go with it. Has some penetration on his kick and on a wing any time he gets forward of centre he loves a goal and generally hits the scoreboard really doing some damage. He will need to get stronger and start winning his own ball more but plenty to like.

The crows are excluded from the 1st 2 rounds next year.

 

[dlanod]

Tickner is already committed to Brisbane through the academy.

EDIT: Does that mean you think Brisbane will have a very good draft even before it starts by grabbing Conway, Tickner who you consider High level players?

Gribble is also in there - another Lions academy kid.

 

[Knightmare]

Tickner is already committed to Brisbane through the academy.

EDIT: Does that mean you think Brisbane will have a very good draft even before it starts by grabbing Conway, Tickner who you consider High level players?

There is certainly strong potential for next season to be a strong draft with Conway and Tickner strong possibilities. It's really comes down to what they do in 2013 and being a draft so far out and with so much footy to be played things change, but at this point there is certainly reason for optimism.

Quigley has seen plenty of both Conway and Tickner and listed both inside his top 15 (Conway inside his top 10 and ahead of McDonald!) so it's fair to say both are at this point rated highly and do have strong best 22 potential - if projecting ahead. They are both proven performers with Conway in particular through the midfield as that stronger bodied type in the u18 champs really impressing.

 

[Knightmare]

Don't much like Port at 2nd last ...

The crows are excluded from the 1st 2 rounds next year.

The battle for last place has already started before the season. Melbourne and Western Bulldogs could well both be in that mix also as those other teams in that bottom region along with Gold Coast.

You are correct about Adelaide. I've had my 2013 draft ready for some time now so Adelaide probably still had those selections at the time of writing.

When I add a second round - so as not to cut players/writeups for the time being I'll get rid of Adelaide from those first two rounds. At this point it's more about getting some awareness out there about some players and giving people a feel for some of the names to look out for next year.

 

[Sin City]

Good work Knightmare

If Martin and Hogan were available I would have Martin a clear #1 with Hogan just ahead of Boyd and Aish for #2.

Dumont hasn't had a lot of discussion yet (probably because there are quite a few other good SA prospects) but he is a beauty and should be very productive next year. He, Billy Hartung, Nick Robertson and Tom Cutler I feel are all a bit underrated at the moment.

I can see the talent in McCartney but he needs to become a productive midfielder similar to Allen Christenson or he might not get noticed all that much.

Big Cam Conlon has to play at FF all year surely!

I agree with Quigley about Conway, looks a real good prospect with a good head on his shoulders.

A bit of a bummer at this stage is the guys with a bit of X factor about them such as Billings, Wilson, McCartney etc all lack size.

I think my list at the moment looks something like this but it's always changing as I've been re-watching a few games lately with more focus on next year's crop.

We've got a few worth watching in Tassie next year. Eli Templeton is a very good, powerful athlete who should come on well after another year in the seniors at the strong Burnie Dockers. Zac Webster is a very talented running player. The K twins are solid prospects and I really like Ryan Wiggins who hasn't generated much talk yet but has performed very well down here.

Another year where Vic Metro and SA will stand out. Hope to see QLD right up there in div 2, not sure NT will be able to compete as well as they did this year.

For QLD, any chance Aliir gets another year as an overage player?

1. Boyd
2. Aish
3. Scharenberg
4. Billings
5. McDonald
6. Dunstan
7. Conlon
8. Dumont
9. Crouch
10. Sheed
11. Kelly
12. Hartung
13. Salem
14. Taylor
15. Wilson
16. Robertson
17. Conway
18. Hourigan
19. Templeton
20. Impey
21. McCartney
22. Tsitas
23. Franetic
24. Cutler
25. Reynolds
26. Webster

 

[CallumBartlett]

Gribble is also in there - another Lions academy kid.

True but from what I understand they haven't actually committed to Gribble as yet opposed to the other two.

 

[CallumBartlett]

Good work Knightmare

If Martin and Hogan were available I would have Martin a clear #1 with Hogan just ahead of Boyd and Aish for #2.

Dumont hasn't had a lot of discussion yet (probably because there are quite a few other good SA prospects) but he is a beauty and should be very productive next year. He, Billy Hartung, Nick Robertson and Tom Cutler I feel are all a bit underrated at the moment.

I can see the talent in McCartney but he needs to become a productive midfielder similar to Allen Christenson or he might not get noticed all that much.

Big Cam Conlon has to play at FF all year surely!

I agree with Quigley about Conway, looks a real good prospect with a good head on his shoulders.

A bit of a bummer at this stage is the guys with a bit of X factor about them such as Billings, Wilson, McCartney etc all lack size.

I think my list at the moment looks something like this but it's always changing as I've been re-watching a few games lately with more focus on next year's crop.

We've got a few worth watching in Tassie next year. Eli Templeton is a very good, powerful athlete who should come on well after another year in the seniors at the strong Burnie Dockers. Zac Webster is a very talented running player. The K twins are solid prospects and I really like Ryan Wiggins who hasn't generated much talk yet but has performed very well down here.

Another year where Vic Metro and SA will stand out. Hope to see QLD right up there in div 2, not sure NT will be able to compete as well as they did this year.

For QLD, any chance Aliir gets another year as an overage player?

1. Boyd
2. Aish
3. Scharenberg
4. Billings
5. McDonald
6. Dunstan
7. Conlon
8. Dumont
9. Crouch
10. Sheed
11. Kelly
12. Hartung
13. Salem
14. Taylor
15. Wilson
16. Robertson
17. Conway
18. Hourigan
19. Templeton
20. Impey
21. McCartney
22. Tsitas
23. Franetic
24. Cutler
25. Reynolds
26. Webster

I hope so, really great guy as I've said before it would be a fantastic story his sister was actually in my grade at school. He moved here as a kid after his dad was killed and had a really tough time for a while before really straightening out, just be a real heartwarming tale but unfortunately once you get past his leap and athleticism there isn't a whole lot to his game.

 

[Super Hans]

From St Pats I'd say Crouch is a lock for top 10, the only other player I'd have as a lock to get drafted (going 40-50 range at this stage) would be Dallas Wilsmore. Not a great year for us compared to the previous two.

Player comparison wise Crouch is much more polished than Sewell, I's compare him to Kieran Jack.

 

[Super Hans]

Also great work Knighmare, terrific effort this early . Really hope we get Boyd.

 

[Pykie]

Not sure I agree with the whole "Jack Martin clear number one" as has been said a number of times. Yes he was taken #1 in the minidraft, but only about 30% of the pool was available, and Quayle says Gold Coast would of taken McDonald anyway.

He's not as good as O'meara imo, and his output doesn't come close to Whitfield's at the same stage, nor some of the other mids in this draft atm, a little overrated at this stage.

There's a couple of really elite potential midfielders in 2013, more so than 2012 imo.

 

[typewriter]

Awesome effort KM, just wondering if their were any WJets boys you considered for your top 50?

 

[DREAM TEAM BUFF]

The crows are excluded from the 1st 2 rounds next year.

You had to bring that up

 

[Knightmare]

Good work Knightmare

If Martin and Hogan were available I would have Martin a clear #1 with Hogan just ahead of Boyd and Aish for #2.

Dumont hasn't had a lot of discussion yet (probably because there are quite a few other good SA prospects) but he is a beauty and should be very productive next year. He, Billy Hartung, Nick Robertson and Tom Cutler I feel are all a bit underrated at the moment.

I can see the talent in McCartney but he needs to become a productive midfielder similar to Allen Christenson or he might not get noticed all that much.

Big Cam Conlon has to play at FF all year surely!

I agree with Quigley about Conway, looks a real good prospect with a good head on his shoulders.

A bit of a bummer at this stage is the guys with a bit of X factor about them such as Billings, Wilson, McCartney etc all lack size.

I think my list at the moment looks something like this but it's always changing as I've been re-watching a few games lately with more focus on next year's crop.

We've got a few worth watching in Tassie next year. Eli Templeton is a very good, powerful athlete who should come on well after another year in the seniors at the strong Burnie Dockers. Zac Webster is a very talented running player. The K twins are solid prospects and I really like Ryan Wiggins who hasn't generated much talk yet but has performed very well down here.

Another year where Vic Metro and SA will stand out. Hope to see QLD right up there in div 2, not sure NT will be able to compete as well as they did this year.

For QLD, any chance Aliir gets another year as an overage player?

Dumont has some ability but needs improve his disposal efficiency and really clean up his footskills before he becomes a genuine top 10 selection, though well in that mix.

I agree with your comments of McCarthy and does need that Christensen type edge to him to find that next level. He is one who could slide down the draft order and I was tossing up who is that final first rounder but slipped in there for West Coast more as someone I saw as a fit but he does have something.

Wiggins is one I hope to see more of this year on your recommendation. Templeton in my mind is that clear no.1 Tasmanian with Webster that no.2. Josh Fox is one I've been told to watch out for and am familiar with the Kolodjashnjj boys.

At this stage I'll back SA in for Div 1 and QLD for Div 2. NT not as strong with that whole group drafted though Willy Rioli will be a factor but Tasmania are clearly that next best after QLD in Div 2 for next year with Vic Metro the no.2 in my mind of those Div 1 sides.

Very high rating for Scharenberg, footskills I've found some way off where I'd like it really lacking consistency but otherwise he has some game. Ahead of Dunstan though? Otherwise really strong list for this stage.

With Aliir he needs to continue to develop his game. I don't need to tell anyone who impressive he is athletically but just needs to add some more strings to his bow. With his athleticism if he does show that improvement then he certainly can get drafted, but that is the question as right now he is all athlete, not enough footballer.

Not sure I agree with the whole "Jack Martin clear number one" as has been said a number of times. Yes he was taken #1 in the minidraft, but only about 30% of the pool was available, and Quayle says Gold Coast would of taken McDonald anyway.

He's not as good as O'meara imo, and his output doesn't come close to Whitfield's at the same stage, nor some of the other mids in this draft atm, a little overrated at this stage.

There's a couple of really elite potential midfielders in 2013, more so than 2012 imo.

I see Martin in a pretty similar way. Incredible athlete and has a load of talent but has a very light body and I just don't see why he is better than a McDonald, Aish or Dunstan. Certainly in that conversation but really any of that top 10 can be taken in any order.

Awesome effort KM, just wondering if their were any WJets boys you considered for your top 50?

Mark Orr is probably the one at this stage I strongly considered for my top 50 from the Jets as that strong bodied kpp/ruck. With a good year can get drafted.

 

[typewriter]

Mark Orr is probably the one at this stage I strongly considered for my top 50 from the Jets as that strong bodied kpp/ruck. With a good year can get drafted.[/quote]
i was going to suggest Orr as well as probbaly armstrong/weston as the athletic KPD (but so hard to pick these guys).

 

[Asgardian]

You had to bring that up

I figured you'd prefer not to see what players you will not be drafting. ...

Thanks to Knightmare for this effort, great reading thank you.

 

[juzzo]

Matthew Boyd could go boom and do a Jonathan Patton or Dominic Sheed could break out and take his game to that next level again so this will be interesting to watch.

Heh, Matthew and Boyd just go together don't they?

Enjoyed reading, though Freo outside the 8 is surely just to stir Chris . A few questions:
How does the overall strength/depth of the draft compare to previous years?
Any other likely father/sons apart from McDonald?
Do you think Edwards will go straight on to the senior list?
Where did you rate Witts in his draft year?

 

[Knightmare]

Heh, Matthew and Boyd just go together don't they?

Enjoyed reading, though Freo outside the 8 is surely just to stir Chris . A few questions:
How does the overall strength/depth of the draft compare to previous years?
Any other likely father/sons apart from McDonald?
Do you think Edwards will go straight on to the senior list?
Where did you rate Witts in his draft year?

They do indeed! I'm going to mix that one up enough time this year and I'd be very surprised if I was the only one!

Fremantle I'm finding difficult to place and I think their potential range is wide - could be top 4 if things go right, or could finish 11th if those stars break down. They've got Fyfe back this year as well as a healthy Sandilands which makes a big difference but with 3 of their best 4 players (Sandilands, Pavlich and McPharlin) 30 or older I'm struggling to see the growth of the list and I think some other clubs have the opportunity to go past them with some more meaningful offseason additions. So less to poke fun at Chris and more just where I have them finishing at this point with a really competitive top 11 all with genuine top 8 chances.

The strength is moderate. I like the mids with the outside group in particular strong but limited top end KPP options and ruck options poor at this point with no top end options. The top 10, not sure what others think but I rate that very top end slightly below this year. But depth is much stronger.

McDonald is the main father son at this point but perhaps some others pop up with strong performances as the year progresses but at this stage no second father son has caught my eye with more the QLD zone/NSW/NZ types connected with particular clubs the more interesting and better talents.

With Edwards it's speculative. May go senior list. May go as a rookie. May not get drafted at all. It comes down to what he does this coming year and as a super small if you like it's unclear what comes of Edwards but from what I hear the club at this stage are happy with his progress and where he is at rating his talent highly so at this point I'd say he has the opportunity to be selected with that final selection with a strong season but very much a wait and see and we'll see more of him in the TAC this year and in the u18 champs to get a more concrete idea of where he is at.

I rated had Witts at 8 in his draft year in my power rankings so it will be interesting to see just how well he goes from here on with his debut likely this year which will be very interesting to watch. I suspect he might struggle running out games, just not sure his endurance is yet there to allow him to run out a full senior match through the ruck so I wouldn't be trusting him in a finals game yet with Hudson the better choice to come in for the time being if required but long term injuries permitting he has the opportunity to become something.

 

[LemmingMaster]

#10 Fremantle – Matt Scharenberg (SA – Def/Mid)Height: 189cm, Weight: 88kg, DOB: 18/09/1995

This kid here is going to be one bloody good player.

Aish, I have a feeling that he may drop down the radar a little. I could be massively wrong, but just a feeling I am getting.

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

Knighta is it too early for the Pies to start tanking for Aish?

 

[Knightmare]

Knighta is it too early for the Pies to start tanking for Aish?

We might not need to tank with the way Grundy conveniently slid to us. You really can never say never.

But hard to see Aish sliding outside of that top 3 I would have thought.

I find as a club it's better to just keep winning then draft as well as you can with the picks you have. Geelong showed in 2009/2010 despite those top end finishes that they probably won those drafts and ended up with the best talents and Collingwood didn't do so bad with Sidebottom and Beams in 08 so put a quality draft prospect on a winner and they'll be better player. No value with tanking and the recent Melbourne team and the lack of development from those very top ends is really a prime example of why tanking no longer wins.

The top end is even so no real advantage to a team finishing with the no.1 overall pick relative to say pick 5/6 at this point anyway.

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

I tend to agree (was obviously tongue in cheek).

It is interesting that it's often the bloke who goes around number 7 or thereabouts that turns out to be the Rising Star, as opposed to the number 1, so I think you're right about that eveness.

The other club that really defy the tank/bottom out approach is the Swans. They have made an artform out of finding quality whatever their picks, recycling journeyman players to perfection and moulding a competitive and optimistic team culture. I think that's the real problem with tanking, particularly for clubs that (allegedly) do it for more than a year or two is it just kills the culture of a club. It must drain the hope and optimism, especially from the younger blokes. I think on the whole the Pies have done a good job as well since the terrible '90's where we just so often got it wrong at the draft table. Like Sydney and Geelong we seem to have that whole moneyball, numbers game working well.

Nice effort getting the 2013 form guide up so soon. You've really excelled yourself this time. I'm wondering whether you'll want to change your power rankings and first round order once you've seen the champs and exposed form players have in senior comp etc. As you know they will shuffle a bit between now and next year.

 

[Knightmare]

I tend to agree (was obviously tongue in cheek).

It is interesting that it's often the bloke who goes around number 7 or thereabouts that turns out to be the Rising Star, as opposed to the number 1, so I think you're right about that eveness.

The other club that really defy the tank/bottom out approach is the Swans. They have made an artform out of finding quality whatever their picks, recycling journeyman players to perfection and moulding a competitive and optimistic team culture. I think that's the real problem with tanking, particularly for clubs that (allegedly) do it for more than a year or two is it just kills the culture of a club. It must drain the hope and optimism, especially from the younger blokes. I think on the whole the Pies have done a good job as well since the terrible '90's where we just so often got it wrong at the draft table. Like Sydney and Geelong we seem to have that whole moneyball, numbers game working well.

Nice effort getting the 2013 form guide up so soon. You've really excelled yourself this time. I'm wondering whether you'll want to change your power rankings and first round order once you've seen the champs and exposed form players have in senior comp etc. As you know they will shuffle a bit between now and next year.

It is curious how the hit rate is so high with pick 7s and Oliver Wines this year I think is every chance to continue that tradition this year. It's one of those relative mysteries but my theory with the draft is more it's better to have draft picks in the relative strong points. In 2012 it was picks inside that top 20 and the more the better and with that even top 20 I think Collingwood specifically could really capitalise in a rare way getting lucky and moving into those selections in that sweet spot. Some years it can be a top 15, some years a top 30 so it does vary.

I think Geelong and Adelaide are probably those two recent standouts in a draft sense with the way they have gone without bottoming out but Sydney have always through trade continued to remain up which for such an extended period just goes without equal.

I'll be changing the order of both the power rankings and the first round order plenty as I find out more and watch more footy. More names will emerge, some will drop off through poor form. Plenty changes so expect a very different order after the u18 champs and another very different order again as we approach the draft and things become more clear.