Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[FlowersByIrene]

Alright in on this years Phantom knightmare
Cant wait to read

 

[Dan12]

KM how would you rate Michael Apeness? Seems a similar size to Kurt Tippett, can take a grab forward and ruck too, also came to the sport late from another code like Tippett.

 

[imabowss]

Haha, fair enough. I suppose my question was more related to his apparent speed and evasiveness? Surely a bigger body then makes him harder to tackle and perhaps a better tackler if he is so quick and evasive? Therefore more ready for senior footy?

yeh hes fairly chubby but that only harms in his endurance i think, still moves really well

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

How do you see Hodgson from WA as a late pick for a defensive mid? I liked the look of him in the last coupla U/18s games.

Fantasia also impressed me from SA, and I dig his name.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Hey Km
Do WCE have to use there ther pick 40 they got from Collingwood this year ?

Also do you think Essendon will be kicked out of this years draft or at least first two rounds,
like adelaide will do.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, If Honeychruch has another good game against VC this week can you see him being drafted? Thought he did quite well ageist SA on Friday and has dominated other games in the championship. I've noticed you and other mock drafters rate him pretty low but surely you can't argue with the numbers he's putting out?

He was playing injured pre champs so his form wasn't super strong. I'll be looking for him to finish the season off strong in the TAC but with further strong form he can get drafted. At 175cm 65kg he's not going early but mid-late draft as a guy who despite his lack of size can go inside win the ball, find it outside and then go forward and kick a goal he's worth drafting. Just with Hartung and Taylor the two clear standout smalls at this point not in the first round.

G'day KM,

Love your revised draft order - can't wait for your 3rd round to be released. Also enjoyed reading your thoughts on the Essendon - GWS trade scenarios.

Two thoughts on your updated draft order:

1) Billings appears to be on the slide. Reasons? (although I'm happy - makes him more of a chance to get to the Dons)

2) Garlett to be taken by Carlton at pick #30. I would have thought with Yarran, Betts and a Garlett of their own it might be a touch of overkill on their part?

I have Billings sliding because I don't feel he'll make the transition to a full time midfielder. Some scouts still see him as a midfielder but I see his best position as being somewhere up forward whether it be as a creative forward flanker or a marking small forward - both of which he's elite at but as a midfielder other than his footskills I'm not seeing too many midfielders he'd star in.

Mick is ok with guys who have their problems. He won with the "rat pack" so I think he could also win with Garlett. Carlton need to be in win now mode with Judd no longer Judd and Garlett with his ability midfielder (inside/outside) and forward is a guy who can give them that immediate boost. They're a team in a position where they can probably take the risk and get in a touch before Essendon who were keen and very close to picking him last year which I'm sure they won't mind so much either.

And here's a question for anyone in the know regarding Willie Rioli.

Can we get a clear description on him as a player. We've basically only heard 'body shape issues' and 'highly skilled small forward'. But that doesn't paint a clear picture.

How does he go speed wise? How are his hands at ground level? What's his decision making like? Tackling? Kicking (set shot, shots from general play, field kicking)? Evasiveness?

Cheers in advance

Rioli is a short but overweight forward. He's one of it not the most talented small forward in this draft with his goal sense, crumbing ability, finishing ability from anywhere. He's that dream small forward offensively and also can be a real playmaker with his vision and ability to hit the forward 50 targets also excellent. He does have some evasiveness to him.

It's defensively where he breaks down. Work rate poor. Doesn't work up the field. Doesn't chase/tackle. Rarely finds the footy with his running game so limited he rarely gets to it.

He's a rookie project where you really need to get him into a good program and teach the guy diet, professionalism and how to play within a teams structures first before he becomes anything. But if he could drop the weight, build his endurance and become much better with that forward pressure then he can be as good as he wants to be.

Knightmare don't know if this has been asked before but what do you think Hartung's weaknesses are apart from his height?

Not a major contested ball winner. Very outside and against bigger bodies will remain that way being a shorter type.

Hey Knightmare,

why the sliding of Billings? Not that it upsets me - more a chance he slips to Essendon.

Also, would a player comparison perhaps be Mark Le Cras?

I largely made my statement about Billings earlier in this post. I feel he's more a forward than a midfielder. Really anywhere from pick 5 he can go with around pick 10 that lower region of his range the feeling seems to be at the moment.

LeCras is an ok comparison. Not as freakish from the boundary and not as quick either but is every bit as strong overhead and 1v1 if not stronger, from set shots you won't find anyone better and hitting targets inside 50 is equal if not better than LeCras so by foot while it's not he doesn't produce that same "magic" everything he touches is just class and by foot special but in a different way.

I liken him more to Jimmy Bartel when played forward. Or an Alex Fasolo if looking for a more direct player comparison but with perhaps a touch less penetration on his kick with his range 50m rather than the 55-60m Fasolo can launch when up and about.

 

[Knightmare]

Awesome write up, but have to say that St.kilda will no way take a defender/utility with pick 3 no matter how good he is. We need inside mids and Dunstan is that.

I've only really updated the writeups to around pick 10 last night with most of my other writeups from last year so by the end of next week if I can find the time it should be more up to date.

I'd be surprised to see Dunstan go top 4 with Boyd/Aish/Scharenberg/Kelly the consensus top 4 with Billings/Lennon considered at 5/6 typically but I shifted them down a touch for this update and gave some of the next teams the players they needed more than those who best represent that position.

St Kilda can always add more midfielders later. There is three rounds of midfield depth to the savy recruiter and a Merlo or Dumont could pretty easily be had in the second round.

Early picks are almost always best availables with the later picks typically more used to fill out needs.

After all it wouldn't have been pretty back in 2001 if West Coast used picked 3 on Graham Polak instead of Chris Judd..

Knightmare How would you say this draft compares to previous years?

Strong. Not a super draft but strong.

Excellent year to add to your midfield stocks. I wouldn't be wanting an elite young ruck prospect this year though, none project as guys you'd take within the first two rounds.

KM how would you rate Michael Apeness? Seems a similar size to Kurt Tippett, can take a grab forward and ruck too, also came to the sport late from another code like Tippett.

Apeness is an interesting one and I'm still making up my mind on him. He's a big guy who probably most resembles Mike Pyke if anyone as a raw big who can compete in the ruck but then play forward and really present as a contested marking target. Kicking all over the place but if looking for a player specifically of his type he could be a fit as a rookie. Perhaps higher with continued improvement.

How do you see Hodgson from WA as a late pick for a defensive mid? I liked the look of him in the last coupla U/18s games.

Fantasia also impressed me from SA, and I dig his name.

Hodgson has competed well and could work his way up the draft but more of a rookie prospect until he really breaks out and past everyone else. At this stage just seems like a good solid player without any real point of difference.

Fantasia is one who I could see getting drafted. Thin build but has played senior footy from what I understand and has some pace and can do some damage with his ball use. Dangerous when used forward and can hit the scoreboard but also has the range to play up the field on a wing or back flank. Late/rookie prospect with a couple of clubs looking at him as a possible.

Hey Km
Do WCE have to use there ther pick 40 they got from Collingwood this year ?

Also do you think Essendon will be kicked out of this years draft or at least first two rounds,
like adelaide will do.

I'm rarely the one to ask for clarification about draft rules. Changes every year so I don't follow it too closely.

The second question is an interesting one. I'd like to see Jobe Watson retain his brownlow but I do believe it likely that Essendon will be stripped of draft picks, perhaps for the next two years, similar to Adelaide last year. But we'll have to wait and see and until we hear the outcome you just don't know.

 

[DeeWong6996]

Hey Knightmare,

I know this is a very unfavourable topic to talk about, but if Melbourne were to secure a priority pick, either immediately after our first, or just a mid first round selection, who do you think we will consider?

Do you think Scharenberg can be a proficient midfielder at AFL level? Strikes me as a taller Grimes, brilliant at reading the play but only decent in the middle.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare,

I know this is a very unfavourable topic to talk about, but if Melbourne were to secure a priority pick, either immediately after our first, or just a mid first round selection, who do you think we will consider?

Do you think Scharenberg can be a proficient midfielder at AFL level? Strikes me as a taller Grimes, brilliant at reading the play but only decent in the middle.

If it was say picks two and three with Boyd off the table I'd take Aish and Freeman. Aish has the outside class and Freeman the inside power and explosion.

Freeman is mostly rated outside the top 10 and more as a 10-20 type pick by most but I view him as the best midfielder in the draft and a guy who can make any midfield more dynamic as that Dangerfield type with that ability to change games.

In saying that more likely is Aish and Kelly who I'd expect Melbourne take to add to that outside running and ball use with both absolute class acts.

If mid 1st round I'd be taking a Freeman or Bontempelli to really add that explosion either inside or a tall but freak athletic guy who with time a few years in him could become something but Lewis Taylor and Billy Hartung would likely also be very strongly considered as immediate but explosive talls who find it easily and could both play from game one as those guys who will come into the team from day one and be better than almost the whole list with the way both have such advanced games already.

Scharenberg I think could become a very good midfielder but having likely not player there much would still need to learn the position. He just hasn't been given the opportunity, or at least in any of the games I've seen of him.

 

[Masked Magician]

I would compare Freeman with Luke Shuey

 

[imabowss]

KM with Cam Mccarthys broken leg, where do you see him being taken?

 

[LouisCK]

So I hear you rate Boyd higher than Hogan.

So how many punches in the balls would you like, exactly?

 

[dlanod]

I continue to hear conflicting reports. Some are saying it works as F/S does. Other say it works as it did last year where it will take the final national draft selection.

I'll let the experts clear it up at seasons end as the rules seem to change year to year.

They literally have changed from last year to this year.

The four NSW/Qld clubs have academies that kids from will use the father/son bidding system.

However there's still some NSW scholarship kids floating around (like Walker and Witts were, etc) - Clothier (Essendon) is one, Elijah Edwards (Collingwood) is another, Perris (Sydney) may be another. These guys can just go directly on to the senior or rookie list at the club's choice, using up the club's last pick in whichever they pick.

 

[SchuPie]

KM - a few thoughts (+ questions) about yesterday's SA v WA game

SA
2015 Draft: liked the look of Durdin as a KPD coming through

27 - like everyone else, though he looked really polished, perhaps didnt get as much of it as i thought he would (always running to the right spot?)

Didnt mind the look of 6 - McKay / 17 - Lemmens / 3 - Karpany. I thought they all played well, little errors here and there but solid games. McKay seems tough with scope to get bigger?

Liked the look of all 3 KPFs for one reason or another - as a Pies supporter, i'd take any...but if pushed for an order then Harvey (needs to fix yips - a common prob?) / Reynolds / Hourigan

WA

Who do you think would be better, 13 Pickett (like the him at start of game) / 14 Smith (he seemed to take over)?

Impressed with 10 - Main and 33 - Jansen

Looking forward to seeing more of Keitel for 2015

 

[Chris Grant]

They literally have changed from last year to this year.

The four NSW/Qld clubs have academies that kids from will use the father/son bidding system.

However there's still some NSW scholarship kids floating around (like Walker and Witts were, etc) - Clothier (Essendon) is one, Elijah Edwards (Collingwood) is another, Perris (Sydney) may be another. These guys can just go directly on to the senior or rookie list at the club's choice, using up the club's last pick in whichever they pick.

Slight correction, it's only three that have to use the F/S bidding system this year. GWS still have one more year before they have to use the F/S bidding system.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

WA

Who do you think would be better, 13 Pickett (like the him at start of game) / 14 Smith (he seemed to take over)?

Impressed with 10 - Main and 33 - Jansen

Looking forward to seeing more of Keitel for 2015

Pickett and Smith have had very different years and very different championships. Smith was playing backwards of center while Pickett was player forward, but if i did have to pick it would be Smith. Pickett has had the better colts season so far but Smith is the smarter footballer and more athletic, it's a shame about his kicking and lack of on field discipline.

Main and Jansen are in that second group from WA. I'm especially a fan of Jansen, has a lot of things that are transferable to AFL.

 

[zephskinner26]

Hey Knightmare,​

Your write-up of Nathan Freeman sounds like a #1 pick. I was also pretty impressed by him from the limited amount I've seen. Why hasn't he had any top 5 pick buzz?​

 

[dlanod]

Slight correction, it's only three that have to use the F/S bidding system this year. GWS still have one more year before they have to use the F/S bidding system.

GWS has a double dip - they have zone selections, but they also have father/son bidding. Practically though you're correct. Father/son bidding would only come into play if GWS uses up all their remaining zone selections (unlikely).

 

[swansRgunBRUH!]

NSW prospects not a strong point. I'm sure to see more of Perris this year but plenty of excitement around him from those I've spoken to and I suggest a strong choice to get drafted at seasons end.

yeh perris to the swans i like the bontempelli kid saw him and looks a player.but do u think he'll go to the swans?

 

[Knightmare]

I would compare Freeman with Luke Shuey

He has been compared to Shuey.

Freeman could be compared to any of Dangerfield/Shuey/Prestia.

KM with Cam Mccarthys broken leg, where do you see him being taken?

I don't think it will hurt his stocks massively. He's played some productive footy and given the clubs some very positive signs through the champs with his ability to read the ball in the flight and with his pressure game for a big as well as the general improvement he has shown throughout the year.

Some say he might even go top 20 but somewhere in the 2nd round may still be a possibility. Particularly with the way his game has grown in my view that impressive aspect for me.

So I hear you rate Boyd higher than Hogan.

So how many punches in the balls would you like, exactly?

I rate them largely the same. Both are dominant big bodied forwards. Boyd is taller and kicks straighter so I'd take him first with both looking like top 10 league key forwards with some years in the system.

I'd be pretty happy with either.

KM - a few thoughts (+ questions) about yesterday's SA v WA game

SA
2015 Draft: liked the look of Durdin as a KPD coming through

27 - like everyone else, though he looked really polished, perhaps didnt get as much of it as i thought he would (always running to the right spot?)

Didnt mind the look of 6 - McKay / 17 - Lemmens / 3 - Karpany. I thought they all played well, little errors here and there but solid games. McKay seems tough with scope to get bigger?

Liked the look of all 3 KPFs for one reason or another - as a Pies supporter, i'd take any...but if pushed for an order then Harvey (needs to fix yips - a common prob?) / Reynolds / Hourigan

WA

Who do you think would be better, 13 Pickett (like the him at start of game) / 14 Smith (he seemed to take over)?

Impressed with 10 - Main and 33 - Jansen

Looking forward to seeing more of Keitel for 2015

It was a strong game from Durdin and he has put his name up for the 2014 draft as a guy clubs will strongly consider.

Scharenberg (27) is a good one and is rated highly in this draft for a reason. Hard to miss with all the intercept marks he takes down back.

McKay missed out last year having missed much of the season with injury but coming in was highly rated as an inside mid. He can and likely will get bigger and better but just won't ever be tall. Likely he'll have to work his way up through dominant play.

Lemmens has put his name up for selection and has really entered the draft mix through the champs. He's an improved player and another who is that year older.

Karpany is well in the mix and as a mid draft type could be a solid choice.

Clem Smith is probably the more highly rated - ahead of Pickett but they've both got something.
Smith is a real Byron Pickett with explosive pace but then a real insane hunger for the contest to the extent that he crosses the line. I can't help but like him but how he performs next year and how he develops will determine where he gets drafted. Just needs a touch more polish and a few tweaks here and there to go high next year.
Pickett has really started to hit some form in recent weeks and his pace is absolutely electric so he's another likely high draft selection if he continues his recent improvement and continues to build on his recent strong form.

Jensen has a very strong body on him. Not quick big body and an improved player from this time last year and that real strong bodied midfielder clubs are looking to bring in.

Hey Knightmare,​

Your write-up of Nathan Freeman sounds like a #1 pick. I was also pretty impressed by him from the limited amount I've seen. Why hasn't he had any top 5 pick buzz?​

He's not yet a consistently dominant player at TAC Cup level.

He can have 4 goal 25+ disposal game some weeks and a 10 disposal game in other weeks so he doesn't yet have that consistency of those consensus top end guys such as a Crouch who will find it 30 times more games than not so Freeman is a guy you buy based more on the way he turns game when he can get his hands on it.
He also lacks any real established outside game at this point with his ball all inside, which personally doesn't phase me so he's far from the complete player.

yeh perris to the swans i like the bontempelli kid saw him and looks a player.but do u think he'll go to the swans?

I have him at the Swans selection at present but after the first 10 selections anyone can go anywhere. He could well be gone by the Swans selection if he has a strong second half to the season.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Knightmare who do you reckon will have the bigger impact out of the two Crouch's?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare who do you reckon will have the bigger impact out of the two Crouch's?

I favour Brad.

Matt has the stronger inside game but I'll back in Brad with his additional explosiveness and the extra year in the system having started that bit earlier.

 

[Lazar Goz]

KM do you have any info or a write up on meryick buchannan?

 

[Knightmare]

I'd also add on Freeman that he's very kick happy. Would rather than jam it on the boot than find a guy by hand.

 

[Knightmare]

KM do you have any info or a write up on meryick buchannan?

Gave up footy a couple of years ago for cricket and is back this year. Likely would have been drafted.

He's a small forward who can push into the midfield. Classy ball user and a guy who can find it up the field pretty easily. Has some creativeness and is a playmaker up front with his ability to find those inside 50 targets.

It will be interesting to see whether he gets drafted. Clubs are certainly very aware he is back but he may need a year of strong form in the VFL next year if he misses out.