Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[BlueMaster1]

KM can you make me a list of F/S players up to 2015

 

[igloo dweller]

KM can you make me a list of F/S players up to 2015

and can you make me a toasted sandwich?

 

[swansRgunBRUH!]

Apparently Perris is a Scholarship player (as well as part of the Academy), which means that we don't have to bid for him. Looks like we'll be putting him straight on the list with our last pick!

true but reading posts someone thought he would go to the bulldogs!BULLDOGS?!really?

 

[Chris25]

Don't rate Cameron Giles at all I see? On track to be named the U18 AA full back, and his rebounding game is as good as any 195cm players in recent years.

 

[Knightmare]

Don't rate Cameron Giles at all I see? On track to be named the U18 AA full back, and his rebounding game is as good as any 195cm players in recent years.

Not hard to rebound when Vic Metro don't have a forward 50 target with Boyd out.

A pretty easy run when you avoid Boyd and there is no real second quality key forward to face off against with those next better two forwards in Hourigan and M.Harvey on his team.

After Darcy Gardiner, Giles is probably that next key defender and you are probably right about him being that best rebounder at his height in recent drafts but I consider that title as his more by default with most of those better key defenders coming through differently. Some making the shift from key forwards, some making the shift from ruckman and those other quality key defenders either below 195cm or shut down specialists.

 

[Chris25]

Not hard to rebound when Vic Metro don't have a forward 50 target with Boyd out.

A pretty easy run when you avoid Boyd and there is no real second quality key forward to face off against with those next better two forwards in Hourigan and M.Harvey on his team.

You make it sound like it was a one off performance. Yet, he has done it all season long in the SANFL. And if we're judging on opposition, we should discount all performances against Divison 2 sides. Giles has done everything right this year, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't in most recruiters' top 80.

 

[Mr_Catt]

Wow, Chris25, what are the chances of allowing someone to have their opinion? Especially on something as subjective as Recruiting and Scouting!!

End of the day scouting/ recruiting is all just prospecting for talent - and each persons interpretation of the talent differs from the next. Your constant clashing feedback is annoying to read. Not because you are simply sharing your opinion (which is fine), but mainly because you question and denounce Knightmare's method and rankings in favour of your own.

There has been some pretty solid cases in point throughout this topic in particular. It seems that the proof is in the pudding, with 37 pages worth of responses for this topic versus 13 for yours. Obviously a lot of people value knightmare's opinion.

There are all things that we disagree / agree on, especially when it comes to drafting and player speculation. In MY opinion, I believe you are too heavily biased to SA based players. Your Giles case is noted, and he is a tidy mover for someone of his height. But if there is one thing we know about the draft - key defenders rarely get taken in the first round/ early rounds of a draft. And if AFL performed defenders were taken early, chances are they were drafted as key forwards originally (Ben Reid, Nathan Brown). Notable exceptions being Hansen (who is more a utility/ swingman but was drafted AA CHB), Mitch Brown (swapped from FF to FB), and Hurley (Again, another utility/ swing man type player. More or less of both positions).

As Knightmare so eloquently pointed out - S.A, and in particular your boy Giles were only victorious and seemingly superior on the day because the No.1 pick in the draft at 199cm + 100kg was missing through injury. Had he played, VM would have won, and Giles' rebounding ability limited/ impacted guarding the number one ranked player in the country (arguably). Strong draft candidate as he is, I haven't seen enough to suggest were he would likely go in the draft.

Luckily for super coach Phillips and S.A, a top 5 midfielder and dead set jet (Sheed) will also be missing through injury, most likely handing the championship to S.A (throw in Hogan and S.A quickly become 3rd rank as opposed to their likely first).

 

[Chris25]

Wow, Chris25, what are the chances of allowing someone to have their opinion? Especially on something as subjective as Recruiting and Scouting!!

End of the day scouting/ recruiting is all just prospecting for talent - and each persons interpretation of the talent differs from the next. Your constant clashing feedback is annoying to read. Not because you are simply sharing your opinion (which is fine), but mainly because you question and denounce Knightmare's method and rankings in favour of your own.

Block me then, if it's so annoying.

If I didn't appreciate Knightmare's work, would I keep following this thread as I do? The fact that we differ on opinions is why I keep coming back, and I'm sure Knightmare doesn't really care if I'm blunt with my thoughts. As you say, scouting is all about valuing players differently. I just do my best to make sure the South Aussies (who most would agree have the strongest side this year, and are about more than just one player carrying them) aren't forgotten.

But hey, let's not derail Knightmare's thread with petty arguments.

 

[Chrizzt]

Hey KM, been a big fan of your work the last few years. Bit of an arbitrary question just out of interest, but I imagine Port will finish considerably higher than what you've got them down as, does this change your draft order considerably? I.e. do you have a strong factor for what teams will be after or do you personally have the draft order of players roughly set (at any given time) and just tweak where you feel a team might be after someone in particular?

 

[Knightmare]

I just do my best to make sure the South Aussies (who most would agree have the strongest side this year, and are about more than just one player carrying them) aren't forgotten.

Hard to see SA beating a healthy Metro. Very lucky not to have Boyd and Freeman beating SA up in the forward half and through the midfield respectively. Add a close to useless McDonald who due to injury has struggled and that's why SA look like they'll win the carnival.

Hey KM, been a big fan of your work the last few years. Bit of an arbitrary question just out of interest, but I imagine Port will finish considerably higher than what you've got them down as, does this change your draft order considerably? I.e. do you have a strong factor for what teams will be after or do you personally have the draft order of players roughly set (at any given time) and just tweak where you feel a team might be after someone in particular?

Keep in mind my last update was back before Port Adelaide beat Sydney and Collingwood, but credit to Port Adelaide you fellas have really come from nowhere and really found something under new coach Hinkley who probably should have found a senior coaching position 5 years ago the way he was being endorsed and considered a major factor in Geelong's initial premiership success.

I plan to complete a major draft update next week which will include draft position updates (Port will be in a more up to date and accurate position), draft profile updates (which are woefully out of date and in some cases now incorrect as many players have since elevated their games since I wrote up their bios) and will also while I'm at it add a 3rd round (with bios) and possibly a 4th round if I can find the time.

My whole draft will be looking very different in a couple of weeks time so something for regular phantom draft followers to bookmark and look out for then.

 

[Chris25]

Hard to see SA beating a healthy Metro. Very lucky not to have Boyd and Freeman beating SA up in the forward half and through the midfield respectively. Add a close to useless McDonald who due to injury has struggled and that's why SA look like they'll win the carnival.

I respectfully disagree. SA have the most well rounded squad, much more physically developed than their opponents and the best forward half of all the teams. And they play the most AFL-like game. No doubt that Boyd being injured helped, but one player wouldn't make that much of a difference. Plus we would have simply lined up differently, knowing that they'd kick it to him every single time. I'm confident they still would have gotten the job done.

Look forward to the update. Mine will get done soon too, and if yours is anything like mine, then there will be some big bolters working their way up the order.

 

[BlueMaster1]

KM can you make me a list of F/S players up to 2015

Can you please

 

[Dazb86]

I wouldn't be calling the messiah close to useless.

 

[Nemisis]

SA has probably the best bunch of kids I have seen - I reckon there are 10 that could make afl.

 

[Knightmare]

I respectfully disagree. SA have the most well rounded squad, much more physically developed than their opponents and the best forward half of all the teams. And they play the most AFL-like game. No doubt that Boyd being injured helped, but one player wouldn't make that much of a difference. Plus we would have simply lined up differently, knowing that they'd kick it to him every single time. I'm confident they still would have gotten the job done.

Look forward to the update. Mine will get done soon too, and if yours is anything like mine, then there will be some big bolters working their way up the order.

Better forwardline than Boyd/Lennon/Billings? Those guys could all go top 10!

Add a healthy Conlon (possibly the second best key forward in the draft if there) and Kennedy-Harris and Honeychurch when playing forward also very good so I see the forwardlines very differently. As good as Hourigan/Harvey/Reynolds are I'm not seeing any top 10 talents in that SA front half.

Can you please

I don't have a full list but off the top of my head:

2014:
Luke McDonald (NM - 1st round quality tall utility. Has struggled this season and in recent weeks with injury but is all class with the way he can break games open with his penetrating kick and linebreaking ability those points of difference)
Jydon Neagle (Ess - missed out last year but as a medium forward could be looked at as a rookie after strong form with NSW through the champs)
Billy Stetch (Melb - linebreaking outside type who has shown some in recent weeks. Worth a shot as a rookie for Melbourne with their outside deficiencies)

2015:
Alec Waterman (WCE - In my top 10 at this point - mid/def - all class with his ball use by foot)
Darcy Moore (Coll - KPF - In my top 15 at this point - more hyped than he probably should. hasn't yet done anything in u18s but in fairness hasn't been healthy until last week. Ruck size key forward with good mobility and can take a grab. Has also played down back some but looks very ordinary behind the ball and doesn't provide any rebound)
The WBD have some further F/S boys. Zaine Cordy is the one I'm aware of I believe is also draft age next year and is more KPP than ruck but haven't seen a whole lot yet. Josh Wallis I also think may be available next season and he's one late year we'll probably see more of.

I'm sure I've missed plenty and others will no doubt add to this list but this is a starting point for those F/S boys to look out for.

 

[Chris25]

Better forwardline than Boyd/Lennon/Billings? Those guys could all go top 10!

Add a healthy Conlon (possibly the second best key forward in the draft if there) and Kennedy-Harris and Honeychurch when playing forward also very good so I see the forwardlines very differently. As good as Hourigan/Harvey/Reynolds are I'm not seeing any top 10 talents in that SA front half.

It's more about depth and balance than just two or three really good players. Harvey, Hourigan and Reynolds is the best 'tall' trio. They all just work so well together, and compliment each other perfectly. Throw in the likes of Wilson, Bates, Karpany and Fantasia as the small forwards. Then you've got someone like Hewett who goes under the radar. Maybe they aren't the biggest names, but it all just works.

 

[BlueMaster1]

Better forwardline than Boyd/Lennon/Billings? Those guys could all go top 10!

Add a healthy Conlon (possibly the second best key forward in the draft if there) and Kennedy-Harris and Honeychurch when playing forward also very good so I see the forwardlines very differently. As good as Hourigan/Harvey/Reynolds are I'm not seeing any top 10 talents in that SA front half.



I don't have a full list but off the top of my head:

2014:
Luke McDonald (NM - 1st round quality tall utility. Has struggled this season and in recent weeks with injury but is all class with the way he can break games open with his penetrating kick and linebreaking ability those points of difference)
Jydon Neagle (Ess - missed out last year but as a medium forward could be looked at as a rookie after strong form with NSW through the champs)
Billy Stetch (Melb - linebreaking outside type who has shown some in recent weeks. Worth a shot as a rookie for Melbourne with their outside deficiencies)

2015:
Alec Waterman (WCE - In my top 10 at this point - mid/def - all class with his ball use by foot)
Darcy Moore (Coll - KPF - In my top 15 at this point - more hyped than he probably should. hasn't yet done anything in u18s but in fairness hasn't been healthy until last week. Ruck size key forward with good mobility and can take a grab. Has also played down back some but looks very ordinary behind the ball and doesn't provide any rebound)
The WBD have some further F/S boys. Zaine Cordy is the one I'm aware of I believe is also draft age next year and is more KPP than ruck but haven't seen a whole lot yet. Josh Wallis I also think may be available next season and he's one late year we'll probably see more of.

I'm sure I've missed plenty and others will no doubt add to this list but this is a starting point for those F/S boys to look out for.

What about carltons next f/s

 

[carnthepies19]

Where abouts would you have Jake Kelly KM? TAC future stars show said he was the son of Craig, so f/s prospect for the pies, apparently he came 2nd to Elijah Edwards last year in the scotch B&F as an underager, so he's of draft age this year. Do you reckon he's a chance to get drafted by us?

 

[Knightmare]

Where abouts would you have Jake Kelly KM? TAC future stars show said he was the son of Craig, so f/s prospect for the pies, apparently he came 2nd to Elijah Edwards last year in the scotch B&F as an underager, so he's of draft age this year. Do you reckon he's a chance to get drafted by us?

Is Jake the son of Craig? He may well be and I'm just not aware of it.

I've seen Jake play some for Scotch over the past couple of seasons alongside Billings/Edwards and J.Stewart when he was there.

Stands at around 188cm and an ok size but more a receiver. Pace ok, reasonable user of the footy and above average overhead but lacks that point of difference to set up apart from the next guy at this point.

Rookie possible and would go in a weak draft but probably not this year unless he closes out the season strongly and finds that next level to his game.

 

[fronkalicious]

Hey km, is aish a better prospect than toumpas??

 

[carnthepies19]

Is Jake the son of Craig? He may well be and I'm just not aware of it.

I've seen Jake play some for Scotch over the past couple of seasons alongside Billings/Edwards and J.Stewart when he was there.

Stands at around 188cm and an ok size but more a receiver. Pace ok, reasonable user of the footy and above average overhead but lacks that point of difference to set up apart from the next guy at this point.

Rookie possible and would go in a weak draft but probably not this year unless he closes out the season strongly and finds that next level to his game.

Yep TAC future stars said he was and I've seen him captioned in a photo with Craig at the unveiling of the new Olympic park training oval where Eddie and maxy etc were kicking the first ball on the ground with lots of kids.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey km, is aish a better prospect than toumpas??

Yes indeed. His game is more advanced and he's a better player today than Toumpas.

Aish is the more composed in traffic but then is as good by foot with his ability on the opposite side better. Also a match for pace with Toumpas and can find as much if not more of the footy.

I'd take Aish anyday.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Knightmare,

Given GWS position with seemingly an abundance of forward talent (Cameron/Patton/Jaksch and probably Franklin) do you think they would be wise to give up pick 1 for a star mature player or players or take the stand out in Boyd??

By all reports Boyd is a better version of Patton but with the ability to pinch hit in the ruck (one of our biggest weaknesses).

Would we be too top heavy with another key forward or could one or more be converted into key defenders?? Patton is such a good mark but not an elite kick, could he be that player or would that be a wasted resource??

Looking at our team I think we lack a mature bodied midfielder (Josh Kennedy type), a nippy goalsneak (Jake Neade), gorilla defender (Heath Grundy) and a ruckman (Shane Mumford). If we could bring in 3 or 4 players like this to supplement our existing talent I think we would be super competitive very quickly.

How do you rate Boyd not only against other key forwards but against previous number 1 picks??

My concern with Patton is that he is coming back from an ACL. Will he be the same player??, will he lose that quickness?? Will he end up like Kruezer?? With that prospect shouldn't we buy insurance and if we're overstocked trade out next year??

Looking over history when teams like Fremantly traded early picks it rarely ended well. Having said that if we could use pick 1 to lure a Shane Mumford or Ryan Griffen across maybe it's worth it.

What do you think will eventuate?

 

[Ethicz]

Hey Knightmare, If Honeychruch has another good game against VC this week can you see him being drafted? Thought he did quite well ageist SA on Friday and has dominated other games in the championship. I've noticed you and other mock drafters rate him pretty low but surely you can't argue with the numbers he's putting out?

 

[Rancid Trogs]

G'day KM,

Love your revised draft order - can't wait for your 3rd round to be released. Also enjoyed reading your thoughts on the Essendon - GWS trade scenarios.

Two thoughts on your updated draft order:

1) Billings appears to be on the slide. Reasons? (although I'm happy - makes him more of a chance to get to the Dons)

2) Garlett to be taken by Carlton at pick #30. I would have thought with Yarran, Betts and a Garlett of their own it might be a touch of overkill on their part?