Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Kaboodleer]

Hi Knightmare, love the thread.

It's interesting you have us taking Josh Kelly now. My worry with taking Kelly would be that both our wings are then smallish outside players. Both, as I understand, have neat disposal and decent speed but aren't going to be particularly damaging with a single possession. If that's the case our midfield wouldn't be particularly well balanced.

Would you say Kelly is a better prospect than Gaff? Faster? Better kick? If he's not clearly a best available at our pick I don't think he really fits our needs.

 

[Knightmare]

Any ideas on Queensland boys? Boys that have been playing neafl all year. Like Rogerson, Mills, Hay and Rutledge. All could and would be good enough for a list.

There were some years there I was a big wrap for some of the Queensland talent (particularly in that 2008-2011 period).

I'm not such a big wrap for the Queenslanders this year with Conway and Tickner not performing to the level I had hoped as those clear top 2 in my mind.

Rogerson, Rutledge and Cornish are the two "others" I'd look at but they're more your rookie prospects.

Next year with Queensland is the group that intrigue me more. Dawson looks very good. Weller looks good and Hammelmann I also think can get drafted. But then again I have similar hopes every year with those Queenslanders and then as 18 year olds they rarely progress as far as I hope so I have to lower my expectations so it will be interesting to see whether Dawson and Weller particularly can get drafted somewhere in the first two rounds as they look like they probably could at this point.

Knightmare or anyone else for that matter, are you able to direct me
Somewhere or have a list of the Victorian state screening? I believe they
Were released today

I've only seen the combine invitees list at this point but I'm sure someone will at some point find the state screenings list.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, love the thread.

It's interesting you have us taking Josh Kelly now. My worry with taking Kelly would be that both our wings are then smallish outside players. Both, as I understand, have neat disposal and decent speed but aren't going to be particularly damaging with a single possession. If that's the case our midfield wouldn't be particularly well balanced.

Would you say Kelly is a better prospect than Gaff? Faster? Better kick? If he's not clearly a best available at our pick I don't think he really fits our needs.

Kelly if available at 6 is probably that largely consensus choice at this stage with AFL recruiters typically calling: Boyd, Aish, Scharenberg, Billings and Kelly those top few along with McDonald as that father son.
Not that we all agree - I know I don't with only Boyd and Aish of those in my personal top 5.

Kelly is similar to Gaff. He's another incredibly high motor outside type who will run all day, find plenty of the footy but then use it exceptionally well and hit his targets every time by foot.

Gaff this year is getting tagged out of games but add a second guy who does the same things as a 16+ beep test type guy and it's not so easy to take both out of the game. It's something that can work and with Embley looking gone and not much extra outside help with particular issues with not enough guys who can run the field and I think Kelly is an excellent fit and a guy who would be a very good fit in West Coast's situation as a round 1 ready outside midfielder who can play good footy right away.

If I was picking for West Coast I'd go with the taller Bontempelli who has that better ability inside with ability also outside the contest along with excellent athleticism at his height. In saying that he's not even in all that many top 20s at this point and with this being a mock draft with the objective of being representative of where I think players will go on draft day, I'm instead giving clubs who I think they are more likely to take/look at with each selection (Kelly) rather than who I think they should take (Bontempelli).
But with my mock draft likely to change another 100 times over the next 3 months it will probably be someone different at that selection next week.

 

[Sydswans0512]

Any chance Nankervis getting picked up?

 

[Knightmare]

Any chance Nankervis getting picked up?

He's in the mix.

I like his game and the improvement he's made this past year, just you can't comment with certainty that he will get drafted because athletically I'm not certain clubs will be 100% convinced.

He'd be a savy selection for a club not afraid of making an unfashionable selection.

 

[Sydswans0512]

He's in the mix.

I like his game and the improvement he's made this past year, just you can't comment with certainty that he will get drafted because athletically I'm not certain clubs will be 100% convinced.

He'd be a savy selection for a club not afraid of making an unfashionable selection.

What player would you compare him to?

 

[TheWhiteRhino]

Knightmare - could you share your views on Lloyd Perris? Where would he likely be drafted if he wasn't an Academy player?

 

[JasRulz63]

I'm not such a big wrap for the Queenslanders this year with Conway and Tickner not performing to the level I had hoped as those clear top 2 in my mind.

Do you think that it may have anything to do with them being Academy players, and Brisbane trying to 'hide' them away as such? There tends to be a trend of F/S players that aren't first rounders falling later in the draft than expected, wonder if this carries on with Academy players. They did have disappointing Championships though, as did the Queensland side as a whole. On paper they looked much better than they ended up performing.

Next year with Queensland is the group that intrigue me more. Dawson looks very good. Weller looks good and Hammelmann I also think can get drafted. But then again I have similar hopes every year with those Queenslanders and then as 18 year olds they rarely progress as far as I hope so I have to lower my expectations so it will be interesting to see whether Dawson and Weller particularly can get drafted somewhere in the first two rounds as they look like they probably could at this point.

Dawson and Hammelmann are both Brisbane Academy players (Weller is apart of the GC Academy), so hopefully they both have good seasons!

 

[Ducky Tie]

Knightmare Apologies if this has already been covered. With you second pick for St. Kilda being Nicholas Robertson, what similarities between him and Fyfe have led to your comparison? The description you gave him (more of an outside player who plays more off the back flank but can go through the midfield) doesn't scream Fyfe. I know you're not saying he will be like Fyfe, just curious as to the similarities. Cheers in advance.

 

[Knightmare]

What player would you compare him to?

Nankervis reminds me a little of Chris Dawes. Nankervis is the taller of the two but the less athletic. He could develop into that no.2 ruckman perhaps.

Knightmare - could you share your views on Lloyd Perris? Where would he likely be drafted if he wasn't an Academy player?

Perris is a good one. High character guy. Runs all day and runs both ways. Not a big body but has hardness and some class. He's another of those recent Sydney style midfielders.
He's probably be a 2nd rounder if not linked to Sydney so he'll be an excellent get. I wouldn't hesitate taking him first round.

Do you think that it may have anything to do with them being Academy players, and Brisbane trying to 'hide' them away as such? There tends to be a trend of F/S players that aren't first rounders falling later in the draft than expected, wonder if this carries on with Academy players. They did have disappointing Championships though, as did the Queensland side as a whole. On paper they looked much better than they ended up performing.

Dawson and Hammelmann are both Brisbane Academy players (Weller is apart of the GC Academy), so hopefully they both have good seasons!

You could be right about Brisbane trying to hide those Queenslanders. Conway particularly having played inside last year but then more outside this year which just isn't his game and as a result he's not living up to expectations.

Those father son types tend to go later than they probably should because a team bids meaning the club only need to use that next selection on them meaning more often than not if you have the same evaluation on the player as the club who bid, you'll more likely than not be getting them on the relative cheap which is the benefit of the rule.

Knightmare Apologies if this has already been covered. With you second pick for St. Kilda being Nicholas Robertson, what similarities between him and Fyfe have led to your comparison? The description you gave him (more of an outside player who plays more off the back flank but can go through the midfield) doesn't scream Fyfe. I know you're not saying he will be like Fyfe, just curious as to the similarities. Cheers in advance.

Fyfe wasn't an inside player either having played more forward as a junior. But Robertson is one where I can't help but get the sense as a taller, strong marking type that there is a hint of Fyfe. Robertson hasn't played this year after those first couple of rounds of the season so we haven't seen as much of him but with more size on his frame he could become more inside. There will be better comparisons. Perhaps a Mackie is closer to who he is but I just can't help but think with Robertson that perhaps he has something different and untapped that we may not have seen last year which was also the story with Fyfe.

 

[Dikembe]

Thoughts on Harrison Green from NSW? Noticed he was in the best most games coming off that half back line.

 

[Knightmare]

Thoughts on Harrison Green from NSW? Noticed he was in the best most games coming off that half back line.

Harrison Green is one of the better talents from NSW and very much in the draft mix.

He's productive, has a high motor, uses it well and has a late year birthday so he might be one of the NSW names called out on draft day by a savy recruiter because there is something there.

 

[JPod_31]

Hey KM

Will Paddy McCartain get drafted this year and which club are looking into him? Also will Freo and WB consider Mitch Thorp?

Thanks

 

[HereIam86]

jeremy cameron if he was in the 2011 draft Where would he have gone?

 

[aussierulesrules]

jeremy cameron if he was in the 2011 draft Where would he have gone?

GWS.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM

Will Paddy McCartain get drafted this year and which club are looking into him? Also will Freo and WB consider Mitch Thorp?

Thanks

McCartin will be drafted next year. Not yet draft eligable. He's looking promising though.

A team may consider Mitch Thorp. Teams haven't been afraid to take a more mature Tasmanian, there is usually one taken every year or so and Thorp could be that guy this year depending on how clubs evaluate his game.

jeremy cameron if he was in the 2011 draft Where would he have gone?

Jeremy Cameron would have gone top 5. Perhaps around pick 3.

You'd take him no.1 now though now that his talent is obvious. He just about singlehandedly killed Collingwood and Nathan Brown doesn't often get bags of goals kicked on him. Young Cameron is big time. Just does so many things to such a high level. He's a good mark but great at ground level, leading patterns perfect, burns you running back into goal.
He'll have 10 goals on you from 10 kicks one day. Just about did against Collingwood with the 7 in 7 kicks.. 4 from 4 kicks in a quarter. He's a star.

 

[JPod_31]

Also, have you herd of a guy for next years draft named Rhys Mathieson. If so, what pick would he be?

 

[dlanod]

Jeremy Cameron would have gone top 5. Perhaps around pick 3.

You'd take him no.1 now though now that his talent is obvious. He just about singlehandedly killed Collingwood and Nathan Brown doesn't often get bags of goals kicked on him. Young Cameron is big time. Just does so many things to such a high level. He's a good mark but great at ground level, leading patterns perfect, burns you running back into goal.
He'll have 10 goals on you from 10 kicks one day. Just about did against Collingwood with the 7 in 7 kicks.. 4 from 4 kicks in a quarter. He's a star.

The funny thing was that he wasn't rated amongst the best handful of the 17 year olds that the Giants picked up at the time. The talk was all about Shiel, Treloar, Golds, Ugle and Bugg (to a lesser extent). Obviously that could've changed after he presumably played TAC if he hadn't been picked up by the Giants.

 

[Knightmare]

Also, have you herd of a guy for next years draft named Rhys Mathieson. If so, what pick would he be?

Rhys is in the u16s. Still another couple of years away but he has the opportunity to be a high end selection.

 

[swansfan51]

Who are the 1-2 Nick Smiths of this year's draft? The efficient, intelligent footallers who a bunch of incompetent recruiters will overlook multiple times for players with more flair but will end up playing more AFL matches than most of them. Last year I was tipping Jason Ashby and Adam Carter to be the Nick Smiths, and I love those sorts of players, so keen to know who to watch out for. I ask you because I remember you rating both of those guys last year.

 

[Knightmare]

Who are the 1-2 Nick Smiths of this year's draft? The efficient, intelligent footallers who a bunch of incompetent recruiters will overlook multiple times for players with more flair but will end up playing more AFL matches than most of them. Last year I was tipping Jason Ashby and Adam Carter to be the Nick Smiths, and I love those sorts of players, so keen to know who to watch out for. I ask you because I remember you rating both of those guys last year.

Guy Dickson and Zac Jones for me are those guys this year down back as your disciplined stoppers.

Dickson I think is a really special player and while I still like him more as a forward I really respect what he's achieved out of position in the back half this season. You don't hear any AFL recruiters talk about him but anyone who's seen him play APS footy in the past knows he's got some rare talent with that ability in the air something. But down back he's another Joel Patful as that premier shutdown defender.

Zac Jones is another and has been spoken about more but again he's a solid citizen who can play a role for you in the back half. He shuts down his guy no fuss and just plays a good brand of footy. He's a guy I'd have no problems drafting as a disciplined defender, though he does have some rebounding ability also.

 

[JAMES_B_101]

McDonald I think will be excellent. He's really struggled badly with injury this year which is why he hasn't performed all that stronger in the VFL or u18 champs relative to what he can achieve at his best. When healthy he's a harder Trent McKenzie or something similar to a Goddard so he's an exciting and absolute top end talent. If healthy there is no reason why he can't play round 1 - he's more talented than the vast majority of the North Melbourne list which is less a criticism of the talent on North's list as it is a compliment to McDonald.
He won't be good for 30 touches. But a damaging 15 disposals is more what he can produce in his first season and once developed probably somewhere around 20, perhaps low 20s which is still excellent from a guy who does the damage McDonald does.

I'd say Matt Crouch is the Wines of this draft who can give you that immediate production as that inside midfielder. He's not quite as tall or strong bodied but he can play round 1 and really have that impact right away if you want him to.

I would have to agree, Crouch seems to have a very polished inside game from what I've heard. I am a big fan of the draft, and I have picked a few bolters over the years such as clay smith (wanted him at the dogs from the start!!!) but this year have deliberately started following it AFTER the champs in an attemp to avoid playing favourites and having my views on other talented youngsters clouded. Looking at stats and intangibles though, I feel as though Dunstan is a fair chance of going around 10 on the day, despite many rating him 15-20. Seems to have the ball winning ability, and ability to keep his feet and break tackles that are real intangibles which can't be taught. Also captain of SA, MVP for SA, Playing a lot of senior footy in the SANFL and all australian. To me just screams out top 10 quality.

 

[BlueMaster1]

KM what do you know about ciaran Byrne and witch team do you reckon bailey rice will play for under f/s

 

[DexterTan]

KM,

Looking through your phantom draft, I wonder if the dogs will look at the next best available KPP or go for an outside midfielder with skills.

The two midfield names I see are Billings and Kelly .

From what I've read Billings is more forward than mid.

Looking at our list, we have enough half forward flankers, do you think Kelly would be a better pick up than Billings?

Unless Matt Scharenberg isn't picked up by the Saints, then I reckon it's out of Billings and Kelly.

 

[paul scholes]

Would Hunter be a similar type to Billings?( I know not as vaunted a player as Billings)