Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[sasaint]

Hi KM. As always, very insightful read. Apologies as I am sure you have been asked this many times but haven't spotted it in the thread. How do you rank this years draft compared to previous years? I thought that 2013 was pretty much a AA draft in terms of quality if not depth and say 2010 was pretty much a C grade draft IMOH at least. Your thoughts?

 

[x_les_x]

Hey KM any rumors as to who port are thinking? Apparently we've been linked to Daniel Nielson and James Rose but not sure that is 100%

 

[jpsmith]

Knightmare,

What are the chances of Reece Mckenzie to Bulldogs for pick 26 or 27 do you think?

 

[footyfan97]

what is the likelihood of miller getting through to west coats 4th round/rookie pick? been a lot of talk on our board about getting him

 

[fronkalicious]

Knightme we now have picks 6,26,27,32,42 and really Cordy in the first 50 we could shorly set our selves up for years here as thid draft looks strong to 45

Lever,Menadue,McKenzie,Gore,Lonie would be a massive coup for the Dogs

Where did pick 32 come from??

 

[Wizard17]

Where did pick 32 come from??

 

[Dan87]

Hi KM, I've been thinking of my player comparison for Heeney and I came up with one that hasn't been mentioned so I thought I'd leave it with ya.

I thought Luke Hodge was accurate.

Signed,

A happy new owner.

 

[Zephiisdaman]

Where did pick 32 come from??

Trading Mark Austin

 

[Godogs247]

Where did pick 32 come from??

wait cooney lol

 

[CatRiot]

Knightmare,

Which clubs are interested in Oscar McDonald and Josh McGuinness?

What draft range are you expecting for each player?

Also, for the Cats who do u see as the likely 14th pick - think it's either Laverde, Weller, Duggan, DeGoey or Cockatoo.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

Knightmare,

Which clubs are interested in Oscar McDonald and Josh McGuinness?

What draft range are you expecting for each player?

Also, for the Cats who do u see as the likely 14th pick - think it's either Laverde, Weller, Duggan, DeGoey or Cockatoo.

You'd have to think Laverde will be long gone, and probably Weller too. Cockatoo is obviously the bolter, but DeGoey looks a good fit for that Cats.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

Cal Twomey's top 25 is out, and not a lot of surprises - Weller and Lever moving up, Lamb and Durdin dropping a little.

One thing that strikes me is that the best 22 or so prospects would make a pretty nicely balanced team. This is thanks largely to the wealth of tall talent, though Wright as the only ruck isn't ideal. But yeah, there seems to be a nice spread of talent across the various positions, and I dare say few drafts would have yielded such a strong and balanced side.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightme we now have picks 6,26,27,32,42 and really Cordy in the first 50 we could shorly set our selves up for years here as thid draft looks strong to 45

Lever,Menadue,McKenzie,Gore,Lonie would be a massive coup for the Dogs

Good outcome for the Dogs if that happens. Just no certainty each guy is available at each of those selections.

Hi KM. As always, very insightful read. Apologies as I am sure you have been asked this many times but haven't spotted it in the thread. How do you rank this years draft compared to previous years? I thought that 2013 was pretty much a AA draft in terms of quality if not depth and say 2010 was pretty much a C grade draft IMOH at least. Your thoughts?

Overall weaker than the last few years. There may not be a franchise quality talent in this draft, after the top 2 and Heeney, maybe Moore and maybe McCartin, it fizzles out some and not a whole lot of top end talents. Not a super deep either with clubs limiting their list turnover this season for a reason.

Good year from a key position depth perspective early and through the later rounds there will be a number of good talls so that will be something clubs should and presumably will take out of this draft.

Hey KM any rumors as to who port are thinking? Apparently we've been linked to Daniel Nielson and James Rose but not sure that is 100%

There will be guys Port Adelaide will rate higher than other clubs may but the reality is Port Adelaide as with other clubs will more likely than not just pick the highest rated talent on this draft board. It will be the same process as with all the other clubs. With those picked outside the top 10 it's just guesswork as it is every year as to who each club will select.

Knightmare,

What are the chances of Reece Mckenzie to Bulldogs for pick 26 or 27 do you think?

50/50. May be there. May not be there. It's around the range he is expected to go so he is a chance to be available. Good selection if there.

what is the likelihood of miller getting through to west coats 4th round/rookie pick? been a lot of talk on our board about getting him

Touk Miller is a good one. He isn't tall but just so strong over the ball. Also can push forward and take a mark and hit the scoreboard so late draft if there he would be a good get.

I expect Miller goes earlier than that. Probably more around the 2nd/3rd round mark. In saying that not out of the question he falls into the later regions of the draft, but I'm not expecting that to be the outcome.

Where did pick 32 come from??

I assume the assumption about the picks in that range is based around the Shaun Higgins compensation and a Liam Jones trade when eventually it happens.

Hi KM, I've been thinking of my player comparison for Heeney and I came up with one that hasn't been mentioned so I thought I'd leave it with ya.

I thought Luke Hodge was accurate.

Signed,

A happy new owner.

Heeney isn't as versatile, penetrating by foot and isn't that same back half sweeper so I wouldn't compare him to Hodge or have him in that same conversation.

His game more closely resembles David Swallow. Jude Bolton would be another comparison for Heeney and is more the type of game he plays. Jack Redden. Rory Sloane. That's more the category he fits into and still a terrific outcome if it happens given the pick used to get him.

Heeney is number three on my draft board for a reason and Melbourne bid pick 2 for a reason thinking he is a top 3 pick and if Heeney wasn't associated with Sydney's Academy they likely at 2/3 would have taken Brayshaw and Heeney.

Knightmare,

Which clubs are interested in Oscar McDonald and Josh McGuinness?

What draft range are you expecting for each player?

Also, for the Cats who do u see as the likely 14th pick - think it's either Laverde, Weller, Duggan, DeGoey or Cockatoo.

Gold Coast may like McGuinness given they like their Tasmanian talent. Maybe a Richmond.

Oscar McDonald might be looked at by Melbourne. With Frawley going they'll be on the lookout for another key defender. Any other club looking at key defenders - Fremantle, Western Bulldogs among others likely look at him.

Geelong I can see liking Lever but he likely is gone. Any of those you list could be considerations. Goddard is another I see Geelong liking as a key defender.

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Cal Twomey's top 25 is out, and not a lot of surprises - Weller and Lever moving up, Lamb and Durdin dropping a little.

One thing that strikes me is that the best 22 or so prospects would make a pretty nicely balanced team. This is thanks largely to the wealth of tall talent, though Wright as the only ruck isn't ideal. But yeah, there seems to be a nice spread of talent across the various positions, and I dare say few drafts would have yielded such a strong and balanced side.

Twomey has a pretty good grasp of it and that is his interpretation and a very Victorian interpretation.

I can't help after seeing that be tempted myself to make a best 22 based on this years draftees..

B: Connor Menadue Hugh Goddard Sam Durdin
HB: Lachlan Weller Jake Lever Jarrod Garlett
CEN: Billy Stretch Angus Brayshaw Jarrod Pickett
HF: Jayden Laverde Darcy Moore Kyle Langford
F: Christian Petracca Patrick McCartin Jordan De Goey
FOLL: Peter Wright Isaac Heeney Jack Steele
BENCH: Peter Bampton Toby McLean Connor Blakely Alex Neal-Bullen
EMG: Caleb Marchbank Dean Gore Caleb Daniel

Reece McKenzie and Oscar McDonald left out for team balance. Same story with Marchbank.

 

[crows101]

Knightmare , what do you think the crows will target with pick 10 some examples?

 

[fronkalicious]

Km have you updated your mock? Still seems to have gws at pick 3 or am I missing something?

 

[iBeng]

Hey KM, what do you think of Brisbane nominating Andrews over Hammelmann? I believe you had him going at our second round pick if we nominated him?

Have we bluffed it to try and rookie him, and do you think we should have bluffed with Andrews instead?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare , what do you think the crows will target with pick 10 some examples?

I see the Crows adding a key defender. So much key defence depth this year and a number of them are likely to fall somewhere around Adelaide's pick.

Durdin if he slides would be hard to pass on as a local talent but a perfect fit as a key defender and someone who if available would represent strong value. Marchbank and Goddard are also logical fits.

Km have you updated your mock? Still seems to have gws at pick 3 or am I missing something?

I did the update prior to free agency and father son bidding.

I'll probably this weekend start a new thread as I'll have new profiles coming which won't all fit onto page one. I'll have all the father son and compensation picks fixed up then.

Hey KM, what do you think of Brisbane nominating Andrews over Hammelmann? I believe you had him going at our second round pick if we nominated him?

Have we bluffed it to try and rookie him, and do you think we should have bluffed with Andrews instead?

Skipping on Hammelmann was to me a surprise to an extent but he is a one trick pony so I get it, but his one trick is so good I would definitely have nominated him and I can only assume Brisbane don't want that many picks and like their other nominations slightly more.

The Andrews pick doesn't surprise me though. He has a late year birthday, is getting stronger and improving in a hurry, good height, can play both ends. I really like his scope to continue to improve and no surprise North Melbourne put in a bid for him. Over Hammelmann? I don't necessarily disagree, he has the extra versatility and probably the scope to develop a few further tricks. In reviewing Andrews' game and Hammelmann's game last week I as Brisbane do also slightly prefer Andrews from a long term perspective.

It may happen, it may not but I can see another club taking Hammelmann in the national draft somewhere around pick 50. I know if I had a pick around that range he would be on my shortlist anyway. It's entirely possible as with Tickner last year that Brisbane if Hammelmann slides into the rookie draft overlook him completely. It will be interesting to see what the outcome is.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Listening to the Crows new coach tonight on 6pr, he stated that Crows had good attack but there defence is weak.
14th defence in the afl.
He will be looking for a good key back first pick after hearing him.

Its a pity Adelaide lost Phil Davis would of been handy for them.

 

[jpsmith]

KM
Who do you see the dogs taking with pick 6 if a trade cant be made for an earlier pick.
We desperately need big KF talent but i cant see Pat Mccartin or Peter Wright slipping down to pick 6.
Sam Durdin is definetly in the mix but looking at highlights and reading bios it seems he is suited to key defender position
In saying that, we also do need key backman so Lever could also be one to choose from and could form a handy partnership with Zaine Cordy

 

[CatRiot]

It appears these clubs may seek a KPD in the draft- Melbourne, Dogs, Swans, Freo, Cats, Crows.

Lever, Marchbank, Durdin, Goddard, McDonald, Cordy. Is there enough to go around?

Think I like the sound of McDonald for the Cats.

 

[Knightmare]

KM
Who do you see the dogs taking with pick 6 if a trade cant be made for an earlier pick.
We desperately need big KF talent but i cant see Pat Mccartin or Peter Wright slipping down to pick 6.
Sam Durdin is definetly in the mix but looking at highlights and reading bios it seems he is suited to key defender position
In saying that, we also do need key backman so Lever could also be one to choose from and could form a handy partnership with Zaine Cordy

Wright isn't out of the question to slide to 6.

No guarantee GWS go with Wright as a club who often spring surprises and may be more inclined to add something different and maybe add a key defender. Collingwood may not take Wright either and may if they get pick 5 as is mostly assumed go different. So I wouldn't discount Wright as a possibility but if he doesn't get through there will be some good key defenders available - with at least two or three of Lever, Durdin, Goddard and Marchbank to be available.

It appears these clubs may seek a KPD in the draft- Melbourne, Dogs, Swans, Freo, Cats, Crows.

Lever, Marchbank, Durdin, Goddard, McDonald, Cordy. Is there enough to go around?

Think I like the sound of McDonald for the Cats.

A club could take a shot on a Michael Hartley as a rookie as an example if looking for an immediate stopper. Another club may look to trade for an established talent. In any case compared to most years there is a real chance for a number of clubs to add a good key defence prospect.

 

[Phil85]

Given our need for KPD and our first 3 picks most likely being used on mids or trade who could you see us picking with our 4th or 5th round;4 (61) or 5 (79)?
Some names I've heard are sean mclaren, Keenan Ramsay and hugh beasly. What can you tell me about these 3

Cheers

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

KM, as a Pies man, and if you were a betting man, right now who would you say they'd take with #5 (assuming Beams...)?

Currently I find this the hardest one to call. I feel GWS will overlook Wright and probably take one of Pickett or Lever. Does it also come down to these three for Collingwood? I lean towards Lever at this stage (with GWS taking Pickett), but Laverde would no doubt fill a greater void in the Pies' list.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

KM
Who do you see the dogs taking with pick 6 if a trade cant be made for an earlier pick.
We desperately need big KF talent but i cant see Pat Mccartin or Peter Wright slipping down to pick 6.
Sam Durdin is definetly in the mix but looking at highlights and reading bios it seems he is suited to key defender position
In saying that, we also do need key backman so Lever could also be one to choose from and could form a handy partnership with Zaine Cordy

Wright now a very good chance to be available, but certainly McCartin is gone by #6. One thing is for sure - at least one of Wright, Durdin and Lever will be available for you at this pick so you can happily assume the likes of Marchbank, Goddard, Lamb, Vickers-Willis won't need to be called upon so early to satisfy that need for talls.

 

[Knightmare]

Given our need for KPD and our first 3 picks most likely being used on mids or trade who could you see us picking with our 4th or 5th round;4 (61) or 5 (79)?
Some names I've heard are sean mclaren, Keenan Ramsay and hugh beasly. What can you tell me about these 3

Cheers

McLaren is more an undersized ruckman who can as required play back but he at this stage isn't an established key defender and has had little exposure at the position. He is a nice height, size, good mark and mobile enough so the hope would be that he makes the transition into the back half over time.

Ramsay can play some key defence. He is a versatile, skilled type and a competitor. Not tall and not a freak athlete.

Beasley is a short key defender at only 190cm and is an overager but he is a very well performed key defender. Excellent stopper and capable rebounder.

KM, as a Pies man, and if you were a betting man, right now who would you say they'd take with #5 (assuming Beams...)?

Currently I find this the hardest one to call. I feel GWS will overlook Wright and probably take one of Pickett or Lever. Does it also come down to these three for Collingwood? I lean towards Lever at this stage (with GWS taking Pickett), but Laverde would no doubt fill a greater void in the Pies' list.

It's a question I have been pondering for a good week now and I don't have an answer for you as to who the Pies take at 5. I don't even know who I would pick at that stage. It's just a really unappealing selection to and one I'd rather not have in an awkward position in the draft, particularly for a team not needing further key defenders.

Petracca, Brayshaw and McCartin will be gone by pick five and then one other to be determined. Wright if there while I'd pick him I don't see him as a certainty as the Pies have Grundy and Witts as the long term ruck combination and Moore, Cloke and Reid as key forwards who they're happy with. The key defenders I generally rate among those next few in Durdin, Goddard and Lever but the Pies have more than enough key defenders with Frost, Keeffe and Brown all AFL quality and Reid and Moore both able to shift back. Perhaps they look at a Pickett, Weller or Laverde who logical fits for the team given the clubs relative lack of outside types but the value is iffy with those more guys it would really be at the very top end of where they could land.

In any scenario the Pies get that pick 5 from Brisbane I would be looking to trade down the draft a few spots and get a useful player in addition to a lower first round pick. I'd move pick 5 to Carlton for pick 7 and Jeff Garlett if they wanted to move up a few spots. Or perhaps Geelong would move pick 14, Varcoe and upgrade one of Collingwood's later picks for pick 5. Or North Melbourne with pick 16 and Greenwood for pick 5. Something along those lines would be what I would be exploring as other clubs could benefit more from having pick 5 than Collingwood. Just depends entirely on whether there are any takers.