Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

What sort of player comparison do you have for Damien Cavka

He is a high motor midfielder/forward. I'll get a bio up over the next week or two for Cavka. He is of roughly similar quality to Luke Russell and can play a similar role.

 

[master bate]

I'll even just go none key position players for you.

Pickett, Weller, Langford (more a flanker), Laverde (also more a flanker at this stage), Menadue, De Goey, Bampton, T.McLean (more a forward though capable mid), Garlett, Blakely, Neal-Bullen, Gore, C.Daniel, Cockatoo, Duggan, Ahern, Vickers-Willis, Lamb, C.Smith (doesn't have the tank to play midfield), D.McKenzie (more a back flanker), Cavka and so on. I will continue to make some changes to this order but that's roughly what I'll stick with.

I reckon so much of that list is flankers. Maybe it's just because I'm seeing them as skinny kids but that list starts with outside small types who I think are heading more for the flanks these days like Weller and Pickett. Then Laverde, McLean are flankers. De Goey doesn't seem to find a lot of the footy, that makes me think flanker. Ahern, Vickers-willis, smith, Langford all better at one end of the ground. Obviously there's guys like Gore and Blakely mixed in there as well.

I just see Geelong they way they developed top class junior midfielders in Guthrie, Christensen and Duncan on the flanks before they took over (or didn't) in the midfield as a nice way to do it. Same with the Pies in their glory days when Sidebottom and Beams were the small forwards and both were probably considered vanilla midfielders (even with Sidebottoms goal kicking record) when coming through. This year if you're picking between 5 and 20 there's so much talent but I'm not enthralled by production. Am I being too harsh? I'm scarred by Melbourne taking Blease and Strauss and forgetting to take guys who find the footy. You can't use it if you don't have it. I'd much rather 2 pick 20's in this draft than a pick 10 if I was a club that wasn't a fan of getting the gun tall who slips.

 

[Knightmare]

I reckon so much of that list is flankers. Maybe it's just because I'm seeing them as skinny kids but that list starts with outside small types who I think are heading more for the flanks these days like Weller and Pickett. Then Laverde, McLean are flankers. De Goey doesn't seem to find a lot of the footy, that makes me think flanker. Ahern, Vickers-willis, smith, Langford all better at one end of the ground. Obviously there's guys like Gore and Blakely mixed in there as well.

I just see Geelong they way they developed top class junior midfielders in Guthrie, Christensen and Duncan on the flanks before they took over (or didn't) in the midfield as a nice way to do it. Same with the Pies in their glory days when Sidebottom and Beams were the small forwards and both were probably considered vanilla midfielders (even with Sidebottoms goal kicking record) when coming through. This year if you're picking between 5 and 20 there's so much talent but I'm not enthralled by production. Am I being too harsh? I'm scarred by Melbourne taking Blease and Strauss and forgetting to take guys who find the footy. You can't use it if you don't have it. I'd much rather 2 pick 20's in this draft than a pick 10 if I was a club that wasn't a fan of getting the gun tall who slips.

I tend to agree with your view that it's not a midfielders draft, many are flankers and the production is of many is below average.

Despite this is does surprise me that guys like Bampton, Blakely, Neal-Bullen and Gore don't get spoken about more as some genuine midfielders with production against good competition in this draft.

With Jason Taylor as national recruiting manager at Melbourne and coming from Collingwood, with Collingwood relatively speaking very much a team who go after guys who have produced, I imagine Taylor won't make the mistakes of his Melbourne predecessors. Issues will be more likely to occur from a lack of veteran experience perspective to help the youth develop and to help the team elevate it's eventual ladder position.

With the picks this year different positions give you different things. If you have a pick in the 5-9 range you've got a terrific opportunity to add a key defender. In the 10-14 range you've got a terrific opportunity to add a flanker. In the 20s and perhaps even early 30s there will be more misses but those who have scouted well will likely notice some midfielders who slide through later than they should and represent value. It's relatively speaking from 4 onward more even than most years and the value after the first two or three does drop away, but there are still if you need the things those positions from 4 onward offer have a real opportunity to add some guys.

 

[pugsville]

I would have thought Brisbane in they have pick 5 would go with key position types and would take Wright if available and if not the best back available. they talls at either end of the ground.

 

[jpsmith]

KM,
any news on teia miles?
any clubs interested and what range will he be taken in?

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

KM,
any news on teia miles?
any clubs interested and what range will he be taken in?

I would hope WCE are interested in him, he reminds me a lot of Don Pyke.

 

[Knightmare]

I would have thought Brisbane in they have pick 5 would go with key position types and would take Wright if available and if not the best back available. they talls at either end of the ground.

Brisbane may go well Weller for all we know, or Pickett if they retain the pick. There are any number of guys who would make sense.

Maybe and this has been widely speculated, they don't value pick 5 highly and don't particularly like their options there. If the Beams deal doesn't go down tomorrow I wouldn't be surprised to see Geelong moving Christensen and their first round pick for pick 5 - probably to get Jake Lever who

KM,
any news on teia miles?
any clubs interested and what range will he be taken in?

No specific rumours regarding Miles.

Miles if drafted most likely goes in the latter portion of the draft.

In saying that like him. Hard, quick, improving and disposal efficiency good particularly late season. No guarantee to get drafted but he's got a real chance.

 

[master bate]

KM I was looking through EQ's draft whatever the heck name they call it this year on the medium midfielders and besides the overage guys so many are born in the first few months.

Starting from the top where Brayshaw and Petracca are both born in the first week of January. Coincidence? Overall I would've though by 18 things have evened out a bit but the collection of top mids stem so much from the first 4 or so months of the year.

Corey Ellis and Connor Menadue are two with birthdays later in the year. Has anyone studied whether late birthdays might represent draft value? It could be a reasonably easy study. Do you think 6 months of physical develop in an 18 year old is significant. I was just thinking if you have 2 players who you really can't split then take the younger guy, in 2 years time (if they are off the same work ethic and physical traits) he'll have closed the gap and you'll have a better player. Have you ever thought about that?

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

KM I was looking through EQ's draft whatever the heck name they call it this year on the medium midfielders and besides the overage guys so many are born in the first few months.

Starting from the top where Brayshaw and Petracca are both born in the first week of January. Coincidence? Overall I would've though by 18 things have evened out a bit but the collection of top mids stem so much from the first 4 or so months of the year.

Corey Ellis and Connor Menadue are two with birthdays later in the year. Has anyone studied whether late birthdays might represent draft value? It could be a reasonably easy study. Do you think 6 months of physical develop in an 18 year old is significant. I was just thinking if you have 2 players who you really can't split then take the younger guy, in 2 years time (if they are off the same work ethic and physical traits) he'll have closed the gap and you'll have a better player. Have you ever thought about that?

Yeah, early birthday draftee's doing well isn't a new phenomenon, google 'nhl drafting birthday bias' for plenty on the subject.

 

[BorisDawg]

KM, for argument's sake, say GWS send 4 & 7 our way in exchange for the traitorous ****. If we choose to keep all 3, I would imagine that we'd grab Wright at 4 and one of Lever and Durdin at 6.

As we need some outside run, who would you pick as the best option for that? I'm of the opinion that a Weller or Pickett would be best for us, but interested to hear your thoughts.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Knightmare,

There's a few rumours doing the rounds the Melbourne are into Jake Lever, with the hope of turning him into a midfielder down the track.

Do you see this as plausible?

Just jump onto the first page for a detailed description of Lever, Knight does say he thinks he's got midfield scope!

 

[CatRiot]

KM

Is there big difference in the quality of the top defenders in this draft such as Lever, Durdin, Marchbank then say compared to Oscar McDonald?

Cheers

 

[Derrick45]

Just jump onto the first page for a detailed description of Lever, Knight does say he thinks he's got midfield scope!

Sorry, I don't think I articulated what I was asking very well. I meant how likely is it that Lever can go as high as pick 3.

 

[Squirk]

Hey Knighmare
Im just wondering with the hawks trading away their first pick who do you think they will look at with their picks.
Thanks in advance.

 

[blueiris]

I would have thought Brisbane in they have pick 5 would go with key position types and would take Wright if available and if not the best back available. they talls at either end of the ground.

Brisbane would draft a forward if one is available or medium shutdown defender and play Merrett down back with Clarke Goose and Gardiner. And switch McStay forward

 

[nottenthagain]

I think there is a strong age bias at the draft. I think Turner (North) is only 5 days older and Hewett (Swans) about 7 or 8 days older than Petracca. Be fascinated to know where they'd go in this draft (I think KM had mentioned Hewett in the late teens in a previous post) as I think clubs generally under rate late birthdays. If you back your culture and development team I reckon it's pretty fertile ground for clubs.

 

[Knightmare]

KM I was looking through EQ's draft whatever the heck name they call it this year on the medium midfielders and besides the overage guys so many are born in the first few months.

Starting from the top where Brayshaw and Petracca are both born in the first week of January. Coincidence? Overall I would've though by 18 things have evened out a bit but the collection of top mids stem so much from the first 4 or so months of the year.

Corey Ellis and Connor Menadue are two with birthdays later in the year. Has anyone studied whether late birthdays might represent draft value? It could be a reasonably easy study. Do you think 6 months of physical develop in an 18 year old is significant. I was just thinking if you have 2 players who you really can't split then take the younger guy, in 2 years time (if they are off the same work ethic and physical traits) he'll have closed the gap and you'll have a better player. Have you ever thought about that?

You are right about the theory on the first few months of the year.

It's just a case of if a guy is producing, you pick them, if they're not, there isn't all that much evidence to suggest they should be get selected.

In the cases of Brayshaw and Petracca they are a class above because they've got the tricks others in this draft don't by position. Petracca with his rare ability forward of centre and Brayshaw with his perfect duel sided footskills as something like a bigger Sam Mitchell.

Late birthdays often represent value. Kayne Turner is the most recent example of that last year as a December 31 birthday. And to be frank he was pretty ordinary for Murray but to his credit he has really stepped up this year and is performing on a completely different level. Bontempelli also last year had a late November birthday and he has also found a completely different level to his play.

With those late birthdays I look at how their development is tracking and whether it is trending upward. If their formline is trending upward and they have a mix of traits that suggest they can become AFL players then I will put extra consideration into that. Duggan is one as a December birthday I'm putting some further consideration into as he is a high character guy who interviewed well, travelled long distance to school then to footy showing a strong commitment etc. Langford similarly is a December birthday, thin build, that's going to change and has done some dominant things and he similarly is someone I've got higher than he would otherwise be if he had an early year birthday.

Rightly or wrongly I use the late birthday concept more with the higher and middle end prospects. Those who are marginal I'd be more inclined to leave out of my draft as until they're looking AFL relevant they're not. But you can only pick guys who you feel strongly can play rather than wishing and hoping development will happen.

The weighting clubs put on it? I imagine it would be there and some consideration would be given, but not all that much with clubs similarly looking for guys who look like they will perform rather than wish and hope they perform which for me is about right.

KM, for argument's sake, say GWS send 4 & 7 our way in exchange for the traitorous ****. If we choose to keep all 3, I would imagine that we'd grab Wright at 4 and one of Lever and Durdin at 6.

As we need some outside run, who would you pick as the best option for that? I'm of the opinion that a Weller or Pickett would be best for us, but interested to hear your thoughts.

Pickett is more your Lewis Jetta as that genuine linebreaker. Weller is more a versatile, skilled, better rounded type who still in his own right can run. Probably Weller for WBD if available given his skillset. He is also reasonably well regarded as a leader which as a younger team is always needed.

KM

Is there big difference in the quality of the top defenders in this draft such as Lever, Durdin, Marchbank then say compared to Oscar McDonald?

Cheers

Lever/Goddard/Durdin/Marchbank are better but I don't have McDonald all that far behind. I'd take one from that first group if given the choice but McDonald did win the Morrish Medal for the best player in the TAC Cup. It helped that he didn't play U18 champs but he still has strong long term chances to establish himself and if missing on the others I'd still be happy to get McDonald in the second round.

Sorry, I don't think I articulated what I was asking very well. I meant how likely is it that Lever can go as high as pick 3.

20/80 Lever goes pick 3. So still possible but likely McCartin or Wright are favoured given the greater hype surrounding the pair of forwards.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knighmare
Im just wondering with the hawks trading away their first pick who do you think they will look at with their picks.
Thanks in advance.

Cooney might be another to join Hawthorn, or that's something that would further elevate the team in the immediate while the premiership window is open, at his age and with his degenerative knee he will if Hawthorn want him/have salary cap space to get him come cheaply. O'Rourke could really learn some tricks off him.

After the top 10 and certainly after the first round it's dartboard stuff from a guessing who which club will take. And this year is about as even after the first 20 or 30 as it gets.

I can only speak if I was picking for Hawthorn but if that pick 43 but if a Bampton or Gore as onballers fall through would be my picks. Toby McLean if available mid-late draft would be a terrific value selection as a forward who can rotate through the midfield.

 

[Knightmare]

I think there is a strong age bias at the draft. I think Turner (North) is only 5 days older and Hewett (Swans) about 7 or 8 days older than Petracca. Be fascinated to know where they'd go in this draft (I think KM had mentioned Hewett in the late teens in a previous post) as I think clubs generally under rate late birthdays. If you back your culture and development team I reckon it's pretty fertile ground for clubs.

A lot of it can be attributed to how young these guys are getting drafted.

If it was like a college basketball or football system where they're mostly in their early 20s it's much easier to project ahead and know roughly who every is as the sample size of years is larger and they are more advanced in age and have less development still to come.

 

[eaglespremiers]

I'd be lowering my expectations for Cockatoo. Top 30? Nah, just getting drafted would be the goal.

You take that back.

 

[Chris25]

Lowering expectations would still be good advice in regards to Cockatoo.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Lowering expectations would still be good advice in regards to Cockatoo.

Tell that to West Coast supporters who want to use pick 11 on him.
I'd prefer Weller, but what do I know.

 

[KissKiss]

Lowering expectations would still be good advice in regards to Cockatoo.

He seems to be the flavour of the month

 

[CatRiot]

You are right about the theory on the first few months of the year.

It's just a case of if a guy is producing, you pick them, if they're not, there isn't all that much evidence to suggest they should be get selected.

In the cases of Brayshaw and Petracca they are a class above because they've got the tricks others in this draft don't by position. Petracca with his rare ability forward of centre and Brayshaw with his perfect duel sided footskills as something like a bigger Sam Mitchell.

Late birthdays often represent value. Kayne Turner is the most recent example of that last year as a December 31 birthday. And to be frank he was pretty ordinary for Murray but to his credit he has really stepped up this year and is performing on a completely different level. Bontempelli also last year had a late November birthday and he has also found a completely different level to his play.

With those late birthdays I look at how their development is tracking and whether it is trending upward. If their formline is trending upward and they have a mix of traits that suggest they can become AFL players then I will put extra consideration into that. Duggan is one as a December birthday I'm putting some further consideration into as he is a high character guy who interviewed well, travelled long distance to school then to footy showing a strong commitment etc. Langford similarly is a December birthday, thin build, that's going to change and has done some dominant things and he similarly is someone I've got higher than he would otherwise be if he had an early year birthday.

Rightly or wrongly I use the late birthday concept more with the higher and middle end prospects. Those who are marginal I'd be more inclined to leave out of my draft as until they're looking AFL relevant they're not. But you can only pick guys who you feel strongly can play rather than wishing and hoping development will happen.

The weighting clubs put on it? I imagine it would be there and some consideration would be given, but not all that much with clubs similarly looking for guys who look like they will perform rather than wish and hope they perform which for me is about right.



Pickett is more your Lewis Jetta as that genuine linebreaker. Weller is more a versatile, skilled, better rounded type who still in his own right can run. Probably Weller for WBD if available given his skillset. He is also reasonably well regarded as a leader which as a younger team is always needed.



Lever/Goddard/Durdin/Marchbank are better but I don't have McDonald all that far behind. I'd take one from that first group if given the choice but McDonald did win the Morrish Medal for the best player in the TAC Cup. It helped that he didn't play U18 champs but he still has strong long term chances to establish himself and if missing on the others I'd still be happy to get McDonald in the second round.



20/80 Lever goes pick 3. So still possible but likely McCartin or Wright are favoured given the greater hype surrounding the pair of forwards.

Thanks KM,

It looks like the Cats will have active picks 14, 21 and 35.

Who do you see the Cats picking up with their improved draft choices?

I'd say a KPD will be in the mix, just a question of which one.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks KM,

It looks like the Cats will have active picks 14, 21 and 35.

Who do you see the Cats picking up with their improved draft choices?

I'd say a KPD will be in the mix, just a question of which one.

Lever, Durdin, Goddard or Marchbank if they slide to 14 would be the selections as key defenders. The latter two are the more realistic chances of that group. If missing out on key defenders Oscar McDonald at 35 if available is worth a shot.

At 21 I see Cockatoo appealing if available.

At 35 there might be a Bampton or Gore who slides through and represents value.

All those guys I can see appealing to Geelong.