Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, if the Crows end up with pick 10 and another around 16-20, which players do you see as a good fit for the list?

Harry Petty may be a Lever replacement of interest 16-20. Balta another alternative. For pace, Matthew Ling is worth consideration.

O'Brien around 10 may be a good choice to add some pace/ball use. Brander could be consider.

Lots of good talls 10 - 20.

What pick would you envision Cassidy Parish going at? Seems to have slid a bit lately.

Late to rookie chance. He's viewed as one dimensional and a poor kick.

I like the value he represents in that range though. Few if any 190cm mids with his ball winning capabilities and hands that clean.

G'day KM. Fogarty (Lachlan), Moore and Starcevich are three midfielders I like who are probably available in the second-round or maybe late in the first. Interested to hear you thoughts on the weaknesses with those three?

Cheers!

Starcevich - size, movement, skills, vision good. Endurance and numbers can improve.

Moore - clean, has genuine footy smarts, good skills, endurance good, good fwd or mid.

Fogarty - similar to Moore though marginally less impressive in those areas mentioned but excels more in hard stuff - tackling ball winning.

Nick Shipley. A 190cm, really solid build of kid ran a 2.84 20m sprint earlier this year. I see him playing midfield in future. Lookout.

Mid is his best spot. Tackling and contested elements are his strengths. Offers no real hurt factor or offense though.

Hi Knighmare

Have seen both play a lot this year and I cant see how Balta is not in contention before Brander.

I am certain Balta will be a true key forward or back plays like a taller Rance in defense

Brander's stocks have dropped. May drop outside of top 10.

Like you, I favour Balta of the two

Last year we really didn't see the kids transfer their games into the AFL McGrath, SPS and SPP being the only 3 to really establish themselves in their first year. Do you see a similar amount in this crop or are they more AFL ready?

15 - 20 I felt had strong debut seasons from last years crop at AFL level.

Number may be 15 from this draft, if it was 17 or 18 last year.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

hey km who do you think the tigers should take with their first rounders

 

[marty36]

Last year we really didn't see the kids transfer their games into the AFL McGrath, SPS and SPP being the only 3 to really establish themselves in their first year. Do you see a similar amount in this crop or are they more AFL ready?

You didn't watch the GF

Graham pick 53 kicks 3 and holds his own against Sloane


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[GoGrows]

It seems like forever since we've seen Cerra play.

In that time, it feels like Cerra is dropping and guys like Brayshaw have risen.

I suspect teams that are looking for mids after the top 3-4 players are off the board will be debating between these two.

How would you compare the two and who do you rate higher?

 

[Knightmare]

It seems like forever since we've seen Cerra play.

In that time, it feels like Cerra is dropping and guys like Brayshaw have risen.

I suspect teams that are looking for mids after the top 3-4 players are off the board will be debating between these two.

How would you compare the two and who do you rate higher?

I'm a Cerra fan. He's firmly planted inside my top 3/4 (power rankings). Contested ball winning bull, but at the same time has the class, composure and ball use.

Brayshaw is of the two while more athletic, the less impactful. I rate him around 10.

Cerra probably goes closer to 5, Brayshaw closer to 10, though clubs may rate them more closely than I do.

hey km who do you think the tigers should take with their first rounders

I'd be looking at KPPs. That's where the value is and with Riewoldt and Rance nearing 30. Now is a good opportunity.

Noah Balta is right in that range. Jarrod Brander may slide. Sam Hayes may receive consideration as a ruck/fwd. Harry Petty. There are a few around that point.

 

[cairo tiger]

Out of interest km where did u have jack graham last year? -and also which tall do u think tigers should target given they have 17 and 19?

 

[Knightmare]

Out of interest km where did u have jack graham last year? -and also which tall do u think tigers should target given they have 17 and 19?

Had Graham 39th in my power rankings - see 2016 thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2016-draft-almanac.1131236/

No surprise he has performed as well as quickly as he has to those who watched his junior footy. Always had the size, competitiveness, contested ball winning and tackling to have an immediate impact. Would have had him top 20 if he could kick, and I still expect that is what will hold him back from being a top liner.

Noah Balta and Harry Petty are two around those selections I'm high on and would recommend as long term kpps who represent strong value around those two choices.
Two other talls around 17/19: Oscar Allen and Connor Ballenden (Brisbane Academy) who could be bid on around that point are two others around that point who could be worth a look.

 

[cairo tiger]

Had Graham 39th in my power rankings - see 2016 thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2016-draft-almanac.1131236/

No surprise he has performed as well as quickly as he has to those who watched his junior footy. Always had the size, competitiveness, contested ball winning and tackling to have an immediate impact. Would have had him top 20 if he could kick, and I still expect that is what will hold him back from being a top liner.

Noah Balta and Harry Petty are two around those selections I'm high on and would recommend as long term kpps who represent strong value around those two choices.
Two other talls around 17/19: Oscar Allen and Connor Ballenden (Brisbane Academy) who could be bid on around that point are two others around that point who could be worth a look.

Thanks mate now you mentioned the word top liner- I reckon 3 goals in a g final and him blanketing Sloane is worthy of top liner status...,

 

[Heaps of fun]

Thanks mate now you mentioned the word top liner- I reckon 3 goals in a g final and him blanketing Sloane is worthy of top liner status...,

Boyd, Dickson and Picken all kicked 3 goals in a flag winning side. Are they top liners?

 

[chels]

"I'd be looking at KPPs. That's where the value is and with Riewoldt and Rance nearing 30. Now is a good opportunity.

Noah Balta is right in that range. Jarrod Brander may slide. Sam Hayes may receive consideration as a ruck/fwd. Harry Petty. There are a few around that point."

Greeting Knightmare,
how do you rate this year's KPPs against last year's group. Specifically could you use Todd Marshall as a reference point.

 

[foodles05]

Knightmare is there anywhere I can get a list of all the combine results rather than just the top ten in each category. Also why do the 20m sprint results seem very slow?

 

[DaveLister]

Knightmare is there anywhere I can get a list of all the combine results rather than just the top ten in each category. Also why do the 20m sprint results seem very slow?

I don't think you can, sort of like how you can't see past the top 5 in the telstra tracker they want to protect the poorer athletes from criticism. As for the sprint times they seems close enough to average, maybe a touch below http://www.topendsports.com/sport/afl/testing-draft-results.htm

 

[The Grover]

Do you know if Rayner did the 2km? I read somewhere he was doing it.

 

[GoGrows]

Thanks mate now you mentioned the word top liner- I reckon 3 goals in a g final and him blanketing Sloane is worthy of top liner status...,

you can have a "top liner" performance without being a "top liner" player.

happens all the time.

refer to Tom Boyd for someone who someone who has previously had elite performances but not yet considered an elite player.

 

[JDavey]

Hey KM - who were your biggest movers based on combine testing?

 

[Chris25]

Mid is his best spot. Tackling and contested elements are his strengths. Offers no real hurt factor or offense though.

I think you're underselling Shipley there. His work as a forward option earlier in the year was good, even if it was against lesser opposition. But he showed he could play to his size as a forward, and knew where the goals were. His speed also allows itself to a role in offense. I think he's a more well rounded player than someone like Matthew Kennedy.

 

[HedgeFund]

Do you know if Rayner did the 2km? I read somewhere he was doing it.

Nup - Rayner did no athletic or skill testing, just the aptitude and interview.

 

[THE_GUN]

Whats peoples thoughts on Naish not participating, how would that effect recruiters preception of him
I had doubts on his pace and tank and was looking foward to his results

 

[Gosha]

Had Graham 39th in my power rankings - see 2016 thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2016-draft-almanac.1131236/

No surprise he has performed as well as quickly as he has to those who watched his junior footy. Always had the size, competitiveness, contested ball winning and tackling to have an immediate impact. Would have had him top 20 if he could kick, and I still expect that is what will hold him back from being a top liner.

Noah Balta and Harry Petty are two around those selections I'm high on and would recommend as long term kpps who represent strong value around those two choices.
Two other talls around 17/19: Oscar Allen and Connor Ballenden (Brisbane Academy) who could be bid on around that point are two others around that point who could be worth a look.

Graham’s kicking at AFL level has been exceptional. Not sure why there were knocks on his disposal. Very clean, especially under finals intensity.

 

[HedgeFund]

Graham’s kicking at AFL level has been exceptional. Not sure why there were knocks on his disposal. Very clean, especially under finals intensity.

Despite copping a bad injury early this year, he was able to translate his underage game into AFL footy seamlessly (which was the nature of the earlier post).

To have played 5 games, 0 losses and win 3 finals (including a flag) is a very handy start.

Fact is he was huge in the biggest game of 2017. He clearly transitioned into AFl footy as well as all the others mentioned (albeit late in the season).

 

[footy24seven]

I don't think you can, sort of like how you can't see past the top 5 in the telstra tracker they want to protect the poorer athletes from criticism. As for the sprint times they seems close enough to average, maybe a touch below http://www.topendsports.com/sport/afl/testing-draft-results.htm

Reports stadium flooring had ‘bounce’ and deteriorated as the days went on


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks mate now you mentioned the word top liner- I reckon 3 goals in a g final and him blanketing Sloane is worthy of top liner status...,

It was one game.. but a terrific game that hopefully launches a strong career.

Greeting Knightmare,
how do you rate this year's KPPs against last year's group. Specifically could you use Todd Marshall as a reference point.

This years KPPs all fare fairly evenly. There are a lot of players who compare very similarly to Marshall this year in that several have shown genuine glimpses but haven't fully put it together, or conversely there are some who are better performed - Naughton and Allen and would be rated in the same conversation, but with perhaps less perceived upside. Just as Marshall wouldn't be, none of the genuine KPPs this year are clear top 10 choices, but can still fit into the first round. Naughton, Brander, Balta, Allen, maybe Petty top of mind all fit into that same sentence.

Knightmare is there anywhere I can get a list of all the combine results rather than just the top ten in each category. Also why do the 20m sprint results seem very slow?

Nothing publicly available with all times.

As for the 20m sprint times, a lot of the better players were missing. Petruccelle didn't run his best time, but there are a lot of players missing who would have rated much more highly.

Do you know if Rayner did the 2km? I read somewhere he was doing it.

Did no testing. Same with LDU, Dow, Cerra and countless others.

Hey KM - who were your biggest movers based on combine testing?

I'll talk about some of them in my weekly piece.

Bonar is the big name. Was probably already going first round and maybe top 10. Really consolidated his chances with strong results.

I think you're underselling Shipley there. His work as a forward option earlier in the year was good, even if it was against lesser opposition. But he showed he could play to his size as a forward, and knew where the goals were. His speed also allows itself to a role in offense. I think he's a more well rounded player than someone like Matthew Kennedy.

Shipley better or more well rounded than Matthew Kennedy? I can't agree with either of those comments.

What you see in Shipley, I see in Kennedy and vice versa.

Kennedy is an out and out gun and I think he may prove to be the value pickup through the trade period. He's a contested ball winning bull through the mids with the size and height, but up forward also is very capable and can take a grab and hit the scoreboard. He has the scope to become one of the games elite mids.

Shipley by contrast, and while I haven't seen the testing, I'd imagine he is the slightly faster of the two, it might just be the games I've seen, but all I've seen that I've liked is his tackling. I've found him otherwise to lack impact and have quiet 20 disposal games. He plays like a late selection with some scope to develop, but a far from certain future.

Whats peoples thoughts on Naish not participating, how would that effect recruiters preception of him
I had doubts on his pace and tank and was looking foward to his results

The thing with the combine is, clubs have the data on these kids going back from u16s and taken several times during each year. They have data, get the on the field data, so big picture, it doesn't really change anything.

Naish is quick, his pace is one of his strengths. I haven't seen any of his testing, but he can break the lines on game day. Endurance I haven't found myself concerned with either, with his work rate and running appearing pretty good in game.

It's more the contested side that Naish lacks that concerns me somewhat, as a light bodied, outside type.

 

[DaveLister]

Reports stadium flooring had ‘bounce’ and deteriorated as the days went on


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Makes sense given it was laminated wood on top of grass, not sure why they feel the need to use etihad if they're not going to be in sprigs on grass.

 

[HedgeFund]

Bonar is the big name. Was probably already going first round and maybe top 10. Really consolidated his chances with strong results.

Strong results?

Obviously you're overlooking his 2km time trial effort (7 mins 9 secs - bottom 17%) and Yo-Yo (new beep) score (20.4 - bottom 12%)

Given this field he competed against included "Clydesdales" like Meek, Payne, Miller Reeves, Hayes, etc. and plenty of the elite running kids didn't test, that suggests Bonar currently runs distance more like a 200cm/104kg block of flats than an elite burst midfielder.

He only beat home a handful of the rucks and bigger KPPs. For example Hayden McLean and Toby Wooller were 30 - 40 secs quicker than Bonar, which equates to about 150 - 200m over the 2km run.

Hardly a strong result - would you agree?

Apologies if it appears I'm having a dig at him (which I'm not) as we all know he's coming off an ACL but if you're thinking about using a top 10 pick well........

It's great to be able to leap high and run 20m quickly, but not much point in the modern game if you can only do two minutes of effort before you blow up and have to come off for a rotation.

If you're going to punt a first round pick in Bonar, either expect him to play VFL next year, or get a S&C program into him which turns his empty tank into a full one without compromising jump and pace. Not easy to do as far as I'm aware.

 

[The German Hunter]

I hear that freo are very keen on Sam Hayes. Could you possibly see him going so early?