Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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AnEmptyChair said:
Sam Skinner trained during the preseason with us with the view to possibly picking up in that pre-season supplemental period. Needless to say, he didn't show enough to get a spot. I might be wrong, but I think we had some inside info that with his injuries, he just wasn't athletic and agile enough to play KPP at the next level.
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You would guess that coming from Brisbane, you had some pretty good intel on Skinner.
 
Knightmare said:
Horne's weight I'd consider likely above what he's listed at. He's strong for his age. Legs, core, hips, arms. He's not skinny and has clearly spent time in the gym.

I have Horne at #2 on my draft board and there is little danger at this stage of him being displaced unless Darcy or Callaghan close out the year to an incredible level.

The way a lot of people on bigfooty in particular are talking about Horne, the expectations from my perspective at least are unrealistic and not in keeping with how he's performing, nor how his game projects at the next level. He's not Ablett, nor is he Danger.

The more I analyse drafts past, League play doesn't support as much as the perception around League the development of young footballers. Looking at the SANFL. Whether it's Dylan Stephens, James Aish, Matthew Scharenberg, Bryce Gibbs back in the day. These guys had advanced games at young ages, but they've failed to develop to expectation in the AFL system despite spending significant time developing at League level. Horne is that next guy, and I'm not necessarily convinced the lack of touches and involvement you get that at that level v an U19 level is necessarily beneficial for a young players development. We've even seen it with those minidraft guys. Jaeger O'Meara, Jack Martin, Brad Crouch and Jesse Hogan. What are the themes? Injuries. Development not to expectation. None of them have become superstars of the game as expected at that that time. And I'm not sure even being in an AFL system that year early helped them.

Curiously the point I would be disagreeing with other observers on despite being relatively down on junior prospects playing in the state leagues is that mature agers are too often overlooked and not given the respect they should as there are state leaguers running around who are a lot better than a good numbers of players on AFL lists, including players at their positions of the same ages.

My estimation is Horne in the NAB League would averaged 28d along with a goal per game. He'd find less than Daicos (and that should be obvious for those who saw the difference between the two finding the footy in the AFL Academy v Geelong game) because he doesn't have the same outside accumulation capabilities where you can't play through him in the same way in general play. And he's not really your inside bully either (not that Daicos is either as neither are that way stylistically) as someone who likes winning the loose balls off the bounce when there is the space to run onto it more than he does the ball in heavy traffic - which is a great way to win it because it makes him highly effectual inside but it does to some degree cap his volume of ball as he is reliant on winning it that way inside.

And if he's doing 28d, 1g, applying himself defensively to a best in draft standard. That's still terrific football and a clear second only behind Daicos on performance who has been this year's dominant performer in every game he has played.
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https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2021-draft-general-discussion.1232857/post-71661980

Looks pretty skinny there
 

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Knightmare said:
Compared to a Christian Petracca at the same age, sure. See other photos and while he's lean and cut in build, he does have relatively good size on his arms and legs.
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It's all in the shoulders. Coathanger shoulders atm. Lot's of room for development there. Will be scary when he fills out!
 
ummmbont said:
What if Bulldogs give Lipinski,Richards pick 1 2021/22
For pick 1 - 2021

Dogs get Horne,Darcy,Rakk,spec pic last
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What is the Roos give Dumont & Garner 2nd round picks 2021/22.
For Darcy.

Roos get Horne, Darcy, Van Rooyan spec pics.

Looks about the same.
 
Hi, what is your view of Jai Newcombe last year and this year, did it change? What attributes came to the for.
What do you think his ceiling is?

Sent from my SM-A526B using Tapatalk
 
Huge legs on Petracca and Dusty. They're as I've been saying at the same age physically much bigger and stronger boys, Petracca in particular.

JD1992 said:
Hi, what is your view of Jai Newcombe last year and this year, did it change? What attributes came to the for.
What do you think his ceiling is?

Sent from my SM-A526B using Tapatalk
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With no season last year, there wasn't any seeing Newcombe as he hadn't come through the junior pathways before that. I'd heard positive things and spoke about him in some of my draft videos as one to watch this year. I'd have heard the ball winning and explosive speed but didn't know much else having not seen until this year.
 
Knightmare said:
With no season last year, there wasn't any seeing Newcombe as he hadn't come through the junior pathways before that. I'd heard positive things and spoke about him in some of my draft videos as one to watch this year. I'd have heard the ball winning and explosive speed but didn't know much else having not seen until this year.
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Thanks


Sent from my SM-A526B using Tapatalk
 
briztoon said:
So you’ll be happy when we trade our future second round pick and a 2021 fourth round pick to you for Ed Richards.
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Ed Richards has re-signed so If it was too occur the price would be steeper than a future 2nd and a fourth this year.
Personally don't think we let him go, unless it is part of a trade for a position of need i.e. Ruck or quality KPD
 

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The reason there is no excuse for your club not meeting their key defence needs this offseason:

Former AFL players, young out of contract players and veterans - retired, delisted or yet to be contracted are among those I explore.

My favourites I cover: Blake Schlensog, Jake Riccardi and Sam Skinner

Point of discussion: If you made a preference list of the key defenders I list, who would be your top-3?

Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNU0XdDgocE
 
Knightmare said:
The reason there is no excuse for your club not meeting their key defence needs this offseason:

Former AFL players, young out of contract players and veterans - retired, delisted or yet to be contracted are among those I explore.

My favourites I cover: Blake Schlensog, Jake Riccardi and Sam Skinner

Point of discussion: If you made a preference list of the key defenders I list, who would be your top-3?

Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNU0XdDgocE
Click to expand...

Bulldogs are desperate for more coverage down back.

Pick 54, Western Bulldogs…Blake Long Schlong!
 
Knightmare said:
The reason there is no excuse for your club not meeting their key defence needs this offseason:

Former AFL players, young out of contract players and veterans - retired, delisted or yet to be contracted are among those I explore.

My favourites I cover: Blake Schlensog, Jake Riccardi and Sam Skinner

Point of discussion: If you made a preference list of the key defenders I list, who would be your top-3?

Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNU0XdDgocE
Click to expand...

Jake Riccardi will play forward next year. Doesn’t want to play back, as much as I want him too.
 
LittleG said:
Jake Riccardi will play forward next year. Doesn’t want to play back, as much as I want him too.
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It could be a bit like Jeremy Howe before joining Collingwood didn't want to keeping play back, then became a beast in defence for Collingwood anyway.

If a club outline a best-22 vision from round 1 to Riccardi in defence, that would be hard for him to say no to if it's made clear that he just needs to be himself and fly for his marks to ensure he holds down that position for the long term. The game has transitioned very quickly to one where intercept marking beasts in defence are difference makers and allowed to go take a higher volume than ever before, so I'd be assuming he'd be comfortable with that vision and opportunity as long as it's made clear there is no plan to keep flipping him around.
 
Knightmare said:
It could be a bit like Jeremy Howe before joining Collingwood didn't want to keeping play back, then became a beast in defence for Collingwood anyway.

If a club outline a best-22 vision from round 1 to Riccardi in defence, that would be hard for him to say no to if it's made clear that he just needs to be himself and fly for his marks to ensure he holds down that position for the long term. The game has transitioned very quickly to one where intercept marking beasts in defence are difference makers and allowed to go take a higher volume than ever before, so I'd be assuming he'd be comfortable with that vision and opportunity as long as it's made clear there is no plan to keep flipping him around.
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Clubs have made a case to him for Round 1 forward. Yes, clubs plural. Dogs out of the running as far as I am aware.
 
Hi knightmare, do you think this is a good draft to find KPD stoppers? Eg Roughead, Talia, Ashbury.

Not the sexiest players, but very important to the team. Collingwood need a long term replacement of Roughead. Thanks.
 
Chrispiesssss said:
Hi knightmare, do you think this is a good draft to find KPD stoppers? Eg Roughead, Talia, Ashbury.

Not the sexiest players, but very important to the team. Collingwood need a long term replacement of Roughead. Thanks.
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I'd ignore key defenders in this draft and look at those available from opposition lists and state leagues as that's where the value is, as per in my YouTube video yesterday.

Schlensog and Skinner from outside the AFL are my two picks. They're both balling.

The indicator that makes it so clear that it's not a draft for key defenders is when Josh Gibcus gets spoken about as a top-10 pick. He's not someone I'd be prepared to take inside the top-20, with Schlensog in my view much better certainly now, but also a higher probability choice over the long term for mine.

I part from popular opinion in that I don't necessarily see any key defenders as having to be elite stoppers. If they're an okay stopper, that's more than adequate to me. I'd even consider in Collingwood's situation playing Moore against the opposition's best key forward, and having them stress about Moore intercepting and rebounding in a similar way to how opponents worry about McGovern as an intercepter.

To get a feel for Schlensog and Skinner. Skinner might be a good one to pair with Moore to allow him to play higher because he's so good 1v1, he seems that ideal deeper defender v Schlensog who you even could play forward/ruck, but he's more someone you want higher and given the freedom to read the ball off the opposition's boot, which he does to a level just about as good as I've seen.
 
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