Looking ahead to 2024

[Section 5]

Let's hope the SEN survey is spot on.

Who will win the AFL premiership in 2024? We surveyed thousands of fans for their thoughts

We asked. You answered.

www.sen.com.au

Who will win the premiership in 2024?​

(According to SEN’s 2023 AFL Fan Survey)

29.5% - Brisbane
21.8% - Collingwood
16.4% - Carlton
6.9% - Melbourne
6.8% - GWS Giants
4.6% - Sydney
2.6% - Port Adelaide
2.5% - Geelong
2.3% - Western Bulldogs
1.8% - Adelaide
1.2% - Richmond
0.9% - St Kilda
0.9% - Essendon
0.6% - Hawthorn
0.4% - Fremantle
0.4% - Gold Coast
0.3% - North Melbourne
0.2% - West Coast

 

[dlanod]

Do you think you solution then is to get guys like Cameron, McCarthy, Wilmot and McKenna to be able to play through the midfield more than they do? OR replace some of those guys in the team with more midfielders, and then having them pinch hit forward or back as required?

We tend to keep our back 6 or 7 fairly stable, but other teams do tend to roll more guys through half back.

Just to take a contrarian position - I think the degree people's natural max level of fitness (twitch fibres, O2 capability, etc) affect results a lot more in the men's game than the women's game, because the men's game has already seen a lot of the low hanging fruit around fitness already harvested over the last 30 years.

In the women's we see our improved and competition leading fitness giving us a substantial advantage for the moment. In the men's, that level of fitness is the base expectation or you're going to be uncompetitive. It's often the reason you see young kids and teams improve substantially in years 2 and 3, because of fitness improvements. Back in the 90s it was a different story.

Even our team, in the women's, I don't think are hitting their natural peak for fitness. They're not professional sportswomen with year round training for example. Guys like McCarthy and Cameron and Rayner, however, are likely as close to their peak fitness-wise as they're going to get and just won't be permanent midfield options as a result. Wilmot potentially has development still in him though, and could transition into the middle.

 

[McIvor]

Have numbers dropped for the new boys?

 

[Nathan Barley]

Have numbers dropped for the new boys?

Probably but because we don't have a media department they haven't announced anything yet

Possibly they're just focusing their limited resources on AFLW coverage

 

[Nunez]

Fitness is not an issue imo. You don't lose a GF by a kick if you're not a fit team.

That's not to say some players don't need to improve - Rayner is the obvious one there.

Besides that, I think the solution is getting better runners into the team. As Nathan Barley said - Dev for Gun was a big step in that area. If Berry moves into the midfield this year, we can look at Sharp on the wing (assuming his physical development has come on again in 2024). Ultimately, we only need a few tweaks to improve that side of our game and honestly think Rayner and Bailey should be the guys leading the way - both should come back fitter than ever and ready to make a proper impact in the midfield.

 

[Pride of lions]

Fitness is not an issue imo. You don't lose a GF by a kick if you're not a fit team.

That's not to say some players don't need to improve - Rayner is the obvious one there.

Besides that, I think the solution is getting better runners into the team. As Nathan Barley said - Dev for Gun was a big step in that area. If Berry moves into the midfield this year, we can look at Sharp on the wing (assuming his physical development has come on again in 2024). Ultimately, we only need a few tweaks to improve that side of our game and honestly think Rayner and Bailey should be the guys leading the way - both should come back fitter than ever and ready to make a proper impact in the midfield.

I think Fletcher will move into the midfield part time next year, which is his natural position I believe. Or certainly by 2025 anyway. He seems to have the pace, grunt, fitness and ball sense to be a pretty decent midfielder. And he definitely wants to play in there which is a big positive.

 

[Nunez]

I think Fletcher will move into the midfield part time next year, which is his natural position I believe. Or certainly by 2025 anyway. He seems to have the pace, grunt, fitness and ball sense to be a pretty decent midfielder. And he definitely wants to play in there which is a big positive.

I think that's more of a 2025 prospect. No need to rush him in. Berry will be ready for proper midfield minutes if all goes to plan.

 

[M Malice]

I think Fletcher will move into the midfield part time next year, which is his natural position I believe. Or certainly by 2025 anyway. He seems to have the pace, grunt, fitness and ball sense to be a pretty decent midfielder. And he definitely wants to play in there which is a big positive.

Adrian definitely sees him as a balanced midfielder.

 

[StevoJenkins]

Berry will be ready for proper midfield minutes if all goes to plan.

Pretty sure this has been said for the past 4 years - never eventuates past a couple of games.

 

[Nunez]

Pretty sure this has been said for the past 4 years - never eventuates past a couple of games.

He's in great shape physically. If there was ever a year he'd do it it's next year. I think he is ready for it.

 

[StevoJenkins]

He's in great shape physically. If there was ever a year he'd do it it's next year. I think he is ready for it.

The real question is whether his shoulder or calf thinks he's ready for it.

 

[RU_]

I think the SEN ratings are underestimating GWS a bit.

They are going to be breathing fire next year.

 

[Nathan Barley]

I think the SEN ratings are underestimating GWS a bit.

They are going to be breathing fire next year.

They do have a history of being pretty fragile.

 

[RU_]

They do have a history of being pretty fragile.

1 point from a grand final is very different to what Richmond did to them though.

 

[Dalions]

I don't think fitness is the issue, it's team selection. Don't rotate enough mids through the middle and play old guys like Zorko

Interesting talking about team fitness and Dayne Zorko specifically, I was listening to a podcast earlier today where Zorks said that he finished the year last year 4-5kgs heavier than where he started the year, to be able to cope with the rigours of week to week afl footy.
I thought he was covering the ground much better earlier in the year and appeared to get worse as the year wore on. Explains why to an extent.

Maybe this year we keep him fitter and leaner but give him rests more often throughout the year when required.
A fit and firing Zorko is better than anything we have in the reserves.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Just to take a contrarian position - I think the degree people's natural max level of fitness (twitch fibres, O2 capability, etc) affect results a lot more in the men's game than the women's game, because the men's game has already seen a lot of the low hanging fruit around fitness already harvested over the last 30 years.

In the women's we see our improved and competition leading fitness giving us a substantial advantage for the moment. In the men's, that level of fitness is the base expectation or you're going to be uncompetitive. It's often the reason you see young kids and teams improve substantially in years 2 and 3, because of fitness improvements. Back in the 90s it was a different story.

Even our team, in the women's, I don't think are hitting their natural peak for fitness. They're not professional sportswomen with year round training for example. Guys like McCarthy and Cameron and Rayner, however, are likely as close to their peak fitness-wise as they're going to get and just won't be permanent midfield options as a result. Wilmot potentially has development still in him though, and could transition into the middle.

Possibly, but this does little to explain the weird situation where Melbourne went from steamrolling teams late in games in 2021, to having massive 2nd half fadeouts all through the back half of 2022 (including against us in the finals) after the departure of Darren Burgess, then back to steamrolling teams again (in general play, at least) in 2023, after a concerted fitness regime last summer, where they would play practice matches then do some more running straight after.

 

[SizeMatters]

Fitness is an issue and its mind boggling some people don't think it is. To compensate for our overall shit fitness levels of our best 22 Fagan resorted to dropping back players in red time. Wouldn't need that if the fitness was at the required standard as a premiership contending side.

We were one of the worst 'red time' teams in the comp. Having a few poor runners such as Zorko, Rich, Lyons and Gunston out of the team still didn't really impact the ability to run out the game - still a poor finishing team. It's a whole list issue and I hope the team focuses more on repeat sprints and 3km runs.

It's a disgrace the two main blokes who have been pegged as 'going into the midfield' the past few seasons are still pathetic runners. Rayner, Bailey need to pull their fingers out. They get to the level of professionalism required and we will win the fourth premiership as the Brisbane Lions. The overall team impact of having more midfield minutes spread to others will be HUGE.

 

[Morbidly_Obese]

It is Fagan's fault the players did not play to a high enough standard.

 

[M Malice]

Fitness is an issue and its mind boggling some people don't think it is. To compensate for our overall s**t fitness levels of our best 22 Fagan resorted to dropping back players in red time. Wouldn't need that if the fitness was at the required standard as a premiership contending side.

We were one of the worst 'red time' teams in the comp. Having a few poor runners such as Zorko, Rich, Lyons and Gunston out of the team still didn't really impact the ability to run out the game - still a poor finishing team. It's a whole list issue and I hope the team focuses more on repeat sprints and 3km runs.

It's a disgrace the two main blokes who have been pegged as 'going into the midfield' the past few seasons are still pathetic runners. Rayner, Bailey need to pull their fingers out. They get to the level of professionalism required and we will win the fourth premiership as the Brisbane Lions. The overall team impact of having more midfield minutes spread to others will be HUGE.

After being just 1 goal from a flag this season imagine how many flags we will win when we actually get fit... incoming 4Peat if our lazy players actually decide to put some effort into this off season.

 

[Grasshopper17]

After being just 1 goal from a flag this season imagine how many flags we will win when we actually get fit... incoming 4Peat if our lazy players actually decide to put some effort into this off season.

Going above and beyond certainly didn't hurt our ladies' chances during their preseason after losing their Grand Final by less than a goal.

 

[Dalions]

Going above and beyond certainly didn't hurt our ladies' chances during their preseason after losing their Grand Final by less than a goal.

It’s not like as if we will ever know about it because our media team is pretty useless.

 

[M Malice]

Going above and beyond certainly didn't hurt our ladies' chances during their preseason after losing their Grand Final by less than a goal.

Who's to say our players aren't and haven't gone above and beyond last off season and the off season before etc etc and they are just not good enough yet.

Can't comment on AFLW as I didn't watch/follow it at all this season. I have watched a little of it in previous seasons and from my viewing while the ladies showed great intensity, desire, courage and want for the contest the standard of skills was deplorable and not watchable for me.

A bit like comparing the NBA to the WNBA or the EPL to ladies soccer.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Who's to say our players aren't and haven't gone above and beyond last off season and the off season before etc etc and they are just not good enough yet.

If I don't see jerry cans it didn't happen.

 

[SizeMatters]

After being just 1 goal from a flag this season imagine how many flags we will win when we actually get fit... incoming 4Peat if our lazy players actually decide to put some effort into this off season.

we conceded 30 scoring shots.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. End of day it doesn't matter how many points we lost in the Grand Final. The shows over.

We were damn lucky the game done and dusted by three quarter time the way the Pies were wasting chances and kept us in the game right until the final 5 minutes.

Improved fitness and we concede 24 scoring shots and we win. How many goals did they snag in red time? yeah exactly.

Not good enough.

Let's hope having one hand on the Cup drives these professionals to the next level. Because let's face it on paper we are a far superior side to the Pies but they are just a better drilled, team first and top tier fit team. It's what we should aspire too. I don't buy into this weird group think that has crept into this board this season that we are not good enough. BS we aren't. How are we not good enough compared to the Pies?

You're right if this team can get on the Pies level we would win 3 in a row.

 

[Section 5]

The Pies were a bit lucky to beat GWS in the PF.
Our ladies were a bit lucky to beat the Cats in the PF.

Both teams made the GF, and both teams got the win.

I am not sure fitness was the big reason both teams came away with the Premiership Cup.
Teams always strive to be as fit as they can.
A lot has to go your way to make the finals then get through to the GF.

Looking ahead to 2024 my hope is we can make top 4 again. That won't be easy.
From this position teams are a better chance to win the GF.