Make the 8 and anything can happen

[George Kramer]

More realistic is missing the 8

To make the finals we are going to need 1-2 wins against Lions, Swans and GWS, the latter 2 teams have had our measure and not drop any games that we should win.

There’s a reason the history of teams making it from 0-4 is so low, it’s bloody hard

 

[FR0GGY]

To make the finals we are going to need 1-2 wins against Lions, Swans and GWS, the latter 2 teams have had our measure and not drop any games that we should win.

There’s a reason the history of teams making it from 0-4 is so low, it’s bloody hard

Can’t see us losing from here on out if I’m honest.

 

[Samcro24]

Can’t see us losing from here on out if I’m honest.

 

[George Kramer]

Can’t see us losing from here on out if I’m honest.

Does that make you a tool or troll?

 

[kirky]

We can only afford to lose 5 games from here at most to make 8th position. so we'd have to hypothetically finish the season with a 10 & 5 record, it may even have to be 11 & 4 if the results continue to be so lopsided. Its not impossible but I haven't seen anything that convinces me we are back. We are 2 games away from 8th spot as it stands. too far back. Not to mention, teams such as Brisbane and Collingwood who are currently out will start snaring games and make a run as well.

I'd say the Brisbane game is our GF. If we lose this game its over.

Brisbane are done.

Too many long term injuries.

Collingwood will probably end up replacing Essendon or Fremantle.

 

[cleanhands]

Brisbane are done.

Too many long term injuries.

Collingwood will probably end up replacing Essendon or Fremantle.

Port?

 

[Redline]

We're better than our ladder position states.

Has anyone had a tougher fixture thus far than us?

I am sure someone has analysed it but I don't think we have had a tough draw. We haven't had Sydney or GWS.

If i had to guess Brisbane have had it tough. They have had GWS, Freo, Geelong, Melbourne, Carlton, Gold Coast and Collingwood. Also an easy one against the Kangaroos

 

[MarcusP2]

I am sure someone has analysed it but I don't think we have had a tough draw. We haven't had Sydney or GWS.

If i had to guess Brisbane have had it tough. They have had GWS, Freo, Geelong, Melbourne, Carlton, Gold Coast and Collingwood. Also an easy one against the Kangaroos

We've played 6 of the 8 teams you listed. Port and Essendon instead of Collingwood and GWS. Close to a wash. Only played one team below 10th each.

 

[rabidcrow]

To make the finals we are going to need 1-2 wins against Lions, Swans and GWS, the latter 2 teams have had our measure and not drop any games that we should win.

There’s a reason the history of teams making it from 0-4 is so low, it’s bloody hard

Genuinely good sides don’t lose 4 in a row - that’s why history is so against them.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[maxlilly]

We will get to the last round and needing a win to get into the 8 and we will bottle it... again.

 

[Billy_01]

Watch us lose to the walking dead this weekend

 

[kirky]

Port?

They will win enough games at home to make it.

 

[Rotayjay]

I'd like to believe we're top eight quality, but we're not. Winning against Carlton away was good, but Port didn't make us pay and other sides will. I concur that we'll finish pretty much where we did last year.

 

[jackster83]

We won't make the finals all the while we keep shitting the bed against mid table sides.

I still don't think the club is equipped to deal with any sort of expectation.

 

[NSolis]

We're better than our ladder position states.

Has anyone had a tougher fixture thus far than us?

As much as I believe we're a top 8 quality side. I don't believe we're premiership material. 5-10 range.

Best case scenario is fluking a prelim. More realistically is losing the elim.

Looking at the difficulty of each draw over the first 8 rounds based on the win/loss record of the opposition against other teams we have had the equal second hardest draw behind Collingwood (33 opposition wins) and tied with Brisbane (32.5 opposition wins). We've played a lot of the same teams as Brisbane.

Collingwood has played 5 top 8 teams and have yet to play either of the bottom two. Both Brisbane and Adelaide have played 7 out of 8 games against teams in the top 10, but played the 8th game against North which drags the average down below Collingwood. We've played the most teams in the 8 with 6/8 games against current top 8 teams.

The easiest draw has been Fremantle by some distance (19 opposition wins). They've only played two top 8 sides and have played 3 of the bottom 4. They are followed by Gold Coast (23), Geelong (24) and North Melbourne (26). Other teams with fairly hard draws have been Hawthorn (31), West Coast (30.5) and Sydney/Richmond (30).

So yeah, we've had a hard draw. However it isn't going to get that much easier aside from a run of 3 games before the bye, so we'll probably need to sweep those to have a reasonable shot at finals.

 

[1970crow]

Are we back?

3-5

Have banked two wins against decent teams... plus one against Port.

The 0-3 start and eye-gougingly bad football thankfully seems to be behind us.

The competition doesn't seem super-strong this year.

Is this little good patch just a big tease? Is our 0-3 start plus ongoing selection missteps and midfield A Grader shortage going to prevent us from reaching the 8?

Or are we back in business baby?

We were beaten in general play by both Port and Carlton, but could also have snaffled a win in 2 of our losses and been 5-3. I can't see us making finals based on how the ladder looks right now. Brisbane and Pies more likely than us to go in, which would mean 3 of the current 8 need to drop out. And from at least 2 games ahead of our position. Dons % means they might be the most likely to succumb. But reckon we need 2 more.

My prediction would be we hang around where we are.

 

[1970crow]

Nah, that's pessimism.

From 3-5 with our upcoming draw it's realism.

 

[TRP1996]

Think there'll probably be a bit of a 10-13 win logjam between the lower reaches of the 8 and ~12th.

Assuming you need 13-10 to make it, and looking at our current draw and being reasonably optimistic.

• Brissie - Home, they're injury decimated -> Win (4-5)
• Collingwood - Melb, we pushed them last year, but don't have any faith -> Loss (4-6)
• WCE -> Win (5-6)
• Haw - Away, barely beat them last year, but they're pretty average -> Win (6-6)
• Rich - Home, and they're pretty average -> Win (7-6)
• Syd - Home, vengeance for last year, but they're pretty good -> Loss (7-7)
• GWS - Home, but we're pretty shit against them -> Loss (7-8)
• Brissie - Away, we pushed them there last year, and possibly their season is done by this point -> (Optimistically) Win (8-8)
• Saints - Home, should win, but this is the kind of game we choke -> Win (9-8)
• Ess - Away, Marvel -> Lose (9-9)
• Haw - Home, they're pretty average -> Win (10-9)
• Geel - Shithole stadium -> Lose (10-10)
• Bullies - Home, Crazy Bevo, possibly they've blown another season by this point -> Win (11-10)
• Port - We have sorta had their measure recently -> Win (12-10)
• Syd - Away, possibly playing off for a spot in the finals, redemption, depending on how the ladder pans out they may have nothing to play for -> (Optimistically) Win (13-10)

To be a bit more pessimistic, let's categorise things:

• 4x really should wins vs bottom 4 - WCE, Rich, 2x Haw
• 4x home game should wins - Bris (at home next week, injury decimated), Saints, Bullies, Showdown
• 7x games that I would currently categorise as worse than 50-50 - Collingwood (away), Syd x2, GWS (home), Brissie (away), Ess (away), Geel (away)

Assuming (and this is possibly a big assumption) we don't stuff up our games in the next month vs Brissie and bottom 4 candidates, I think we'll really live and died on the basis of that stretch either side of the bye - Syd (home), GWS (home), Brissie (away), Saints (home), Ess (away). Snagging anything less than 3 of those probably makes things really difficult.

 

[SugarShane]

I'm not cashing out my bet on us to miss the 8 just yet.

 

[daniel_4tw]

Essendon loss really killed us.

It’s certainly possible but we need to win all the games we’ll be favourite for and pinch a couple we will go in as underdogs.

Geelong, Collingwood and GWS you can forget about it.

Leaves Essendon, Sydney and obviously Port as must wins.

Top 4 are safe + Collingwood.

Essendon and Fremantle to come out IMO. So that leaves one spot at least. Not impossible for Carlton and Port to fall in a heap, but less likely.

One thing is for sure, whoever loses between Crows and Lions this week, is done.

 

[rocket18]

Agree. We are good enough to win a lot of games but the hurdle.......

is Nicks selections and game plan, has been his achilles heel for 5 seasons.

 

[croweater 41]

Think there'll probably be a bit of a 10-13 win logjam between the lower reaches of the 8 and ~12th.

Assuming you need 13-10 to make it, and looking at our current draw and being reasonably optimistic.

• Brissie - Home, they're injury decimated -> Win (4-5)
• Collingwood - Melb, we pushed them last year, but don't have any faith -> Loss (4-6)
• WCE -> Win (5-6)
• Haw - Away, barely beat them last year, but they're pretty average -> Win (6-6)
• Rich - Home, and they're pretty average -> Win (7-6)
• Syd - Home, vengeance for last year, but they're pretty good -> Loss (7-7)
• GWS - Home, but we're pretty s**t against them -> Loss (7-8)
• Brissie - Away, we pushed them there last year, and possibly their season is done by this point -> (Optimistically) Win (8-8)
• Saints - Home, should win, but this is the kind of game we choke -> Win (9-8)
• Ess - Away, Marvel -> Lose (9-9)
• Haw - Home, they're pretty average -> Win (10-9)
• Geel - Shithole stadium -> Lose (10-10)
• Bullies - Home, Crazy Bevo, possibly they've blown another season by this point -> Win (11-10)
• Port - We have sorta had their measure recently -> Win (12-10)
• Syd - Away, possibly playing off for a spot in the finals, redemption, depending on how the ladder pans out they may have nothing to play for -> (Optimistically) Win (13-10)

To be a bit more pessimistic, let's categorise things:

• 4x really should wins vs bottom 4 - WCE, Rich, 2x Haw
• 4x home game should wins - Bris (at home next week, injury decimated), Saints, Bullies, Showdown
• 7x games that I would currently categorise as worse than 50-50 - Collingwood (away), Syd x2, GWS (home), Brissie (away), Ess (away), Geel (away)

Assuming (and this is possibly a big assumption) we don't stuff up our games in the next month vs Brissie and bottom 4 candidates, I think we'll really live and died on the basis of that stretch either side of the bye - Syd (home), GWS (home), Brissie (away), Saints (home), Ess (away). Snagging anything less than 3 of those probably makes things really difficult.

Quick ladder predictor on my thoughts only difference was last game vs Sydney so I have us 12-11 and finishing 9th % only to Freo.

Season may come down to round 19 vs Essendon at Marvel (if we do everything right to that point with no surprises) win and its 7th instead of Essendon lose and its 9th.

But this is pending on all other 17 teams either a) not shitting the bed when not needed or b) shitting the bed when needed. Which we all know won't happen so likely a 10th place finish incoming at the end of year.

 

[WetCrow1991]

We'll finish high enough so idiots can point to the season and say, "look we were ok, will improve on it next season when Milera is back, as he will be like a new draftee". We won't finish low enough to get a good draft pick.

 

[kirky]

Think there'll probably be a bit of a 10-13 win logjam between the lower reaches of the 8 and ~12th.

Assuming you need 13-10 to make it, and looking at our current draw and being reasonably optimistic.

• Brissie - Home, they're injury decimated -> Win (4-5)
• Collingwood - Melb, we pushed them last year, but don't have any faith -> Loss (4-6)
• WCE -> Win (5-6)
• Haw - Away, barely beat them last year, but they're pretty average -> Win (6-6)
• Rich - Home, and they're pretty average -> Win (7-6)
• Syd - Home, vengeance for last year, but they're pretty good -> Loss (7-7)
• GWS - Home, but we're pretty s**t against them -> Loss (7-8)
• Brissie - Away, we pushed them there last year, and possibly their season is done by this point -> (Optimistically) Win (8-8)
• Saints - Home, should win, but this is the kind of game we choke -> Win (9-8)
• Ess - Away, Marvel -> Lose (9-9)
• Haw - Home, they're pretty average -> Win (10-9)
• Geel - Shithole stadium -> Lose (10-10)
• Bullies - Home, Crazy Bevo, possibly they've blown another season by this point -> Win (11-10)
• Port - We have sorta had their measure recently -> Win (12-10)
• Syd - Away, possibly playing off for a spot in the finals, redemption, depending on how the ladder pans out they may have nothing to play for -> (Optimistically) Win (13-10)

To be a bit more pessimistic, let's categorise things:

• 4x really should wins vs bottom 4 - WCE, Rich, 2x Haw
• 4x home game should wins - Bris (at home next week, injury decimated), Saints, Bullies, Showdown
• 7x games that I would currently categorise as worse than 50-50 - Collingwood (away), Syd x2, GWS (home), Brissie (away), Ess (away), Geel (away)

Assuming (and this is possibly a big assumption) we don't stuff up our games in the next month vs Brissie and bottom 4 candidates, I think we'll really live and died on the basis of that stretch either side of the bye - Syd (home), GWS (home), Brissie (away), Saints (home), Ess (away). Snagging anything less than 3 of those probably makes things really difficult.

So say we are 12-10 and need to win in Sydney in the last round, the AFL will have that goal umpire to umpire in Sydney (it isn’t Adelaide Oval so all good).

And us playing Sydney in Sydney in the last round? Who would have thought.

 

[StonesThrow]

I don't think we played well though. Was a terrible game.

Think that was our best footy aside from the first half against Port. North doesn't count.

Problem was we went back to horrid football the week after against essendon. So who knows where we're at.