Racing March Daily Punt - Coronavirus > Caulfield

[iluvparis]

Really?

why?

bias aside the optics of rail that far out on clubs biggest autumn day is dreadful

Because they raced there yesterday so need fresh ground.

 

[iluvparis]

Can you all put Avilicat in your supercoach side please

thanks

Nah he already costs 500k so even though he'll win you don't get the 50k price increase.

 

[iluvparis]

Horses that sit outside the leader in races over 2000m or further win about 5 percent of races. Write off too close to the sun at your own peril

Look given the trainer he could easily 'bounce back' at his next start but his last 150m was absolutely pathetic against walkers - even Kementari would have out toughed him. Any decent horse would have put that race to bed.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Garner my bet of the day Saturday if he brings his spring form will smack thier heads in

 

[iluvparis]

Garner my bet of the day Saturday if he brings his spring form will smack thier heads in

Wrong Adelaide horse

 

[TBellicious]

51mm of rain in Melbourne overnight and still raining

 

[iluvparis]

51mm of rain in Melbourne overnight and still raining

#blueATM

 

[TBellicious]

#blueATM

The Exceedance Avilius big race double looking better by the minute

 

[Gavin Excell]

Because he beat him home in the Cox Plate. Avilius first two runs this prep have been better than last prep. Beaten by Samadoubt twice, compared to 2L loss to TAS (when beaten 3.5L in Cox Plate by TAS).

Feirce Impact and Kings Will Dream equally suited in 1400m race first up and FI narrowly beat him. FI narrowly beat Avi last week. So Avi about level with Kings Will Dream who beat Harlem in Peter Young so Avi should be beating Harlem home here.

Harlem smashed by Life Less Ordinary in Mackinnon. Life Less Ordinary hugged rails and couldn't beat Avi on the weekend.

Ok Avi came in with winning form last year but he's just faced better opposition this time in. Still going about equal and he started $1.90 last year and ran well below his best.

Avilius last 3 runs at 2000m in Melb are pretty average

5th Australia Cup (winner Harlem)
4th Caulfield stakes (Cape of G F..ng Hope)
7th Cox Plate (LDG)

It's not a compelling case is it

 

[iluvparis]

Avilius last 3 runs at 2000m in Melb are pretty average

5th Australia Cup (winner Harlem)
4th Caulfield stakes (Cape of G F..ng Hope)
7th Cox Plate (LDG)

It's not a compelling case is it

Might be an issue if there was a top line horse in the race. News just in...there isn't.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Wrong Adelaide horse

You thinking Sisstar!

 

[bigdog43]

Harlem looks a very strong place bet at $4

 

[iluvparis]

You thinking Sisstar!

Wrong Adelaide horse

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Wrong Adelaide horse

Lil Kontra

 

[Slipps]

Lil Kontra

Little Rich Boy

#keen

 

[rideclutch]

Best horse in the race by some margin at his best and getting more than enough in the price for his Melbourne/dry track discount. Has started odds on in these before remember. First time I am back on the #blueATM bandwagon for a while.

Savers SF and KWD

Good race though - V&D, Harlem, Fifty Stars and Mirage look the best lays at current prices

Yeah I can see the case, but I think it's either him or literally anything. Since I don't like him, I'll have to stay out.

Given the recent winners of this race, COGH turning it around wouldn't surprise me.

 

[LFC2010]

Gytrash absolutely loves the sting out the ground. Loves the straight, barrier & weight concerning though.

 

[come on oliver]

Little Rich Boy

#keen

love the Forklift

 

[mcnulty]

Worse than a soft 5 I think Avilius is a good thing, and he’s been backed early. Any other track in the country I’d be loading up at $4 but Flemington drains so well. Not much more rain predicted, and it seemed to come after the racing yesterday.

Will wait andsee the track rating on the day because I think it makes a huge difference to what odds I want to back him at.

 

[AvantGardener]

Avilius last 3 runs at 2000m in Melb are pretty average

5th Australia Cup (winner Harlem)
4th Caulfield stakes (Cape of G F..ng Hope)
7th Cox Plate (LDG)

It's not a compelling case is it

Nothing split Harlem and Avi in the Caulfield Stakes or Cox Plate. I'm not saying its clear cut Avi beats him, its pretty line ball if the track is a Good 3 but to say there is no way he beats Harlem is just wrong imo.

 

[TBellicious]

Only one horse in 100 years has won the Newmarket first up.

 

[Slipps]

Only one horse in 100 years has won the Newmarket first up.

Only two in the race first up.. so that means Gators best bet cant win

 

[FallingLiefs]

Only one horse in 100 years has won the Newmarket first up.

Yeah but it has a 33% strike rate in the last 3 years.

Programs be changing, The Newmarket use to be the grand final now there's money everywhere from here on for 12-1400m horses. Good horses no longer go to the Oakleigh and it seems they're now also avoiding the Lightning if they are not pure 1000m horses.

Off the top of my head BHB run close 2nd FU too. It's a non-issue for me, asses the horse as first up but it doesn't carry any extra weight because it's a newmarket.

 

[iluvparis]

Only one horse in 100 years has won the Newmarket first up.

Damn - completely forgot about that stat actually - not great for fans of Exceedance

 

[mcnulty]

Yeah but it has a 33% strike rate in the last 3 years.

Programs be changing, The Newmarket use to be the grand final now there's money everywhere from here on for 12-1400m horses. Good horses no longer go to the Oakleigh and it seems they're now also avoiding the Lightning if they are not pure 1000m horses.

Off the top of my head BHB run close 2nd FU too. It's a non-issue for me, asses the horse as first up but it doesn't carry any extra weight because it's a newmarket.

Agree with this. Historically the good ones have come through the Lightning or OP.

Pretty sad indictment on our trainers if they can’t have a horse ready to rumble first up over a sprint trip. Non issue for me.