Racing March Daily Punt - Coronavirus > Caulfield

[iluvparis]

Geez they have come for Brandenburg early $9 into $6.50 fav

Utter madness*

#3yofappers

*said same about Brutal last year off similar run

 

[TBellicious]

Utter madness*

#3yofappers

*said same about Brutal last year off similar run

he profiles almost identical to Brutal

 

[iluvparis]

he profiles almost identical to Brutal

Yup - looks like the lazy form analysts are in early

 

[iluvparis]

And the money has come for the Squib!

Don't personally feel the need to take a 3 handle here when you could get it last start in a race that was perfect for him.

 

[FallingLiefs]

"lazy form"

Of last 40 years, 17 3yo's have won.

Horses to win within 1kg of WFA weight or more in last 40 years: 5 (More Joyous, Sunline, Emancipation, Super Impose, Winx)

Average weight behind WFA scale of winner 4kg

Horses to place in this race at or above WFA scale in last 40 years. Pierro + Sunline.

Lazy form is saying a horse that hasn't won a WFA race in Australia in 3 goes or any of her starts this prep deserves to be favourite carrying a WFA horses weight in a Handicap. Not only that she gets back and needs a swamp and be able to make ground. False fave.

Well done to all those found her in the Myer to beat Aristia with everything going right but she's a beaten fave last 3 and 5 times in Australia. How on earth this is a doncaster style horse amazes me.

 

[iluvparis]

Victoria bringing in field size restrictions

COVID-19 Update – Race and field limits introduced

Racing Victoria (RV) wishes to advise of the following update about arrangements for Victorian racing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.racingvictoria.com.au

 

[juice t]

I'm thinking the April thread title could just be the next step in the chain

Coronavirus > Randwick

 

[iluvparis]

I'm thinking the April thread title could just be the next step in the chain

Coronavirus > Randwick

Danon Premium Self Isolates from Antipodean Camels

 

[54Dogs]

I'm thinking the April thread title could just be the next step in the chain

Coronavirus > Randwick

Racing > Rugba League

 

[juice t]

Racing > Rugba League

I believe it's spelled Rugbaleeg

 

[LFC2010]

Damien Lane self isolates to escape the victorian stewards!.

or something to do with wrong saddle cloth number to avoid Covid-19 detection.

 

[FallingLiefs]

If you are having a bet midweek and have access to best tote it should now be the only way you are betting.


Prior to pubs/tabs closing there was enough of a pool size for the big guys to clean the pools up post jump.


2 months ago around 111% B3totes on a monday/tuesday

Last 2 days 106%, Today as low as 105%. If you can best tote+SP which one would assume is even better you could be betting into figures as low as football/sports at the SPs.

Last 7 days BSP around 1.2% better BEFORE commissions so returns are now better on tote. Last 2 days have tote better even before commission.


I suspect saturdays will remain a high takeout due to more mug money in totes however midweek i do not expect to see best tote available for long.

 

[come on oliver]

If you are having a bet midweek and have access to best tote it should now be the only way you are betting.


Prior to pubs/tabs closing there was enough of a pool size for the big guys to clean the pools up post jump.


2 months ago around 111% B3totes on a monday/tuesday

Last 2 days 106%, Today as low as 105%. If you can best tote+SP which one would assume is even better you could be betting into figures as low as football/sports at the SPs.

Last 7 days BSP around 1.2% better BEFORE commissions so returns are now better on tote. Last 2 days have tote better even before commission.


I suspect saturdays will remain a high takeout due to more mug money in totes however midweek i do not expect to see best tote available for long.

Thanks mate. Just need to be pointed in the direction of a winner now .

 

[Viva la Mattner]

And the money has come for the Squib!

Don't personally feel the need to take a 3 handle here when you could get it last start in a race that was perfect for him.

Can bet $10 Pierata with odds boost

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Brutal joins the retired brigade

 

[FallingLiefs]

Thanks mate. Just need to be pointed in the direction of a winner now .

Unfortunately you are on the wrong board for that, cannot help you there.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Brutal joins the retired brigade

Is he on the same pathway as all the Rupert Legh B graders and off to stand at Yulong?

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Is he on the same pathway as all the Rupert Legh B graders and off to stand at Yulong?

Will stand at Newgate Farm

 

[FallingLiefs]

Will stand at Newgate Farm

Ah of course, forgot they bought him after the Donny. Good people there but unfortunately have stumbled across more then their fair share of flops. Between Wandjina, Flying Artie and Dissident and the not so strong shooters Extreme Choice, Criterion and Menari it's been a rough start although Deep Field doing fantastic.

 

[king rising]

Ah of course, forgot they bought him after the Donny. Good people there but unfortunately have stumbled across more then their fair share of flops. Between Wandjina, Flying Artie and Dissident and the not so strong shooters Extreme Choice, Criterion and Menari it's been a rough start although Deep Field doing fantastic.

Don’t mind the job Wandjinas doing

 

[FallingLiefs]

Don’t mind the job Wandjinas doing

Mamaragan? See my last rant but he's cooked as a stallion if mamaragan doesn't win a G1.

I couldn't even name another reasonable one.

 

[HeathySure]

If you want a good idea of how good a sire is you can dig deep off these tables

Sire Tables Australia | Breednet

www.breednet.com.au

it you click on a sire you can see winners, stakes winners etc. You might see some sires have lots of winners but when you dig deep they dont have many stakes winners at all. Rubick is 5th on the general sires list, but that is skewed by Yes Yes Yes winning the Everest, He has had only 4 stakes winnners. Wandjina has had 1 stakes winner from 83 runners its pathetic. Deep Field has lots of winners, but his stakes winners are minimal too. I actually think breeding is a good part of form study, horses from certain sires had similar traits and can stop you backing losers.

 

[AvantGardener]

Castelvecchio just wins the Derby doesn't he?

Left Warning for dead last start, that Vic Derby form behind Thought of That is trash.

Quick Thinker good last start but this is a big step up.

Shadow Hero got Castel in the Spring Champion but thats because Castel has a crap campaign with weird races up to that point. Admittedly Castel had better run in transit but he smoked Shadow Hero last start.

I think he just wins. Hindsight is wonderful but you'd be looking back and saying 1st Aussie horse home in Cox Plate of course he would have won the Derby.

 

[AvantGardener]

TJ Smith there is a number that can win on their day, but if they all have their day none beat Nature Strip. I'm on the JMac train well and truly! Probably too short to back though, maybe waste a bit of the Castel winnings!

Couldnt back Biv at $5. Pierata probably a touch of overs for mine. $2.70 the place!

 

[AvantGardener]

Mamaragam appears the only top class 2yo in the race. Also having to follow Bartley with J Mac.