Racing May Daily Thread - Melham’s Multi Madness

[HeathySure]

Will trust the people who know what they're doing, the JRA ratings for now on which the Japenese handicappers have LG the clear superior horse.

They might give AE the better one after yesterday first up the mile but then there would be question marks on her ability to do it over 2500 for at least a start or two. (not saying she cannot run 2500).

she won the japan cup over 2400 in world record time....

 

[FallingLiefs]

she won the japan cup over 2400 in world record time....

I know this, record times mean little to me as they should to anyone.

That said I am not saying she is not a mile and a half horse she may be superior over the mile or 2 mile. What I am saying is a peak performance over a mile wouldn't indicate to me she would suddenly improve to beat LG over 2500 she may well do but the question would have to arise is she better over 1600 It might only be half a length or so she might be very consistent across all distances.

This is all basis yesterday being a PB, if the field was weaker than norm, it likely isn't better than her 124 previous and she will gradually step up to her natural previous distances and take improvement.

It's a fact of the run was that good something would be amiss so 3 likely options. She's improved. She's a miler. The race was weaker than normal (cannot confirm on japanese form)

 

[Gavin Excell]

Japan have rolling times and run on bitumen so time does not mean too much in general sense. Also IMO when horses run at high tempo and are untouched it generally means they're doing it themselves in their own rhythm so they do not necessarily improve on it next start under heavy riding.

Now that negatives are out of the way, it was an extremely impressive performance when she was able to produce gaps as late as she did. Normally you see the field break open a bit earlier and margins appear earlier in the straight for big margin wins like that where 5L in one race doesn't equal 5L in another race. It's a key metric, how much a horse can do very late when they're positioned on speed. I think back to Russian Camelot BM70 he really took them to the cleaners in the last 200 and extending late a sign it was nowhere near his top.

What do you mean by rolling times?

 

[FallingLiefs]

What do you mean by rolling times?

Was always told they don't time at the exact second barriers open but I cannot find anything to confirm. Always thought it was small lag time after I may be wrong.

Regardless tracks that hard....

 

[iluvparis]

ARCHANNA - that thing of Arrowfields that was like even money out to a billion/1 before being vetted at the barrier and bolting in at Warwick Farm is in a the Kenso on Wednesday (R5)

 

[Gavin Excell]

Was always told they don't time at the exact second barriers open but I cannot find anything to confirm. Always thought it was small lag time after I may be wrong.

Regardless tracks that hard....

It is interesting the hard tracks

Doesn't it rain in Japan?

 

[iluvparis]

It is interesting the hard tracks

Doesn't it rain in Japan?

It does rain - they just don't have shithouse tracks.

And to be fair we could have equally hard tracks a lot of the time if we didn't water.

 

[Gavin Excell]

ARCHANNA - that thing of Arrowfields that was like even money out to a billion/1 before being vetted at the barrier and bolting in at Warwick Farm is in a the Kenso on Wednesday (R5)

Sister to Autumn Sun

 

[rideclutch]

Yeah and I guess Almond Eye just fell over the line yesterday

SP profile in the AK tells you all you need to know - it beat Saturnalia further in the race directly before the AK.

AE would start fave for certain in a rematch - sadly we will never see it

No I was just asking. That Mosheen mare started like 3rd fave yesterday, so on paper I assumed it was a weaker race than the Arima Kinen.

 

[iluvparis]

No I was just asking. That Mosheen mare started like 3rd fave yesterday, so on paper I assumed it was a weaker race than the Arima Kinen.

Yeah and if she had come here without running in the AK she'd have been a 10/1 on shot - that was the only question mark

 

[FallingLiefs]

Might be a weak race, All the big guns probably still in the sheds, Had Danon Premium been there AE would have been 50:1.

 

[iluvparis]

Not sure if it's just because he throws more shit at it but Hayes horses seem to often outperform on the synthetic

 

[HeathySure]

I know this, record times mean little to me as they should to anyone.

That said I am not saying she is not a mile and a half horse she may be superior over the mile or 2 mile. What I am saying is a peak performance over a mile wouldn't indicate to me she would suddenly improve to beat LG over 2500 she may well do but the question would have to arise is she better over 1600 It might only be half a length or so she might be very consistent across all distances.

This is all basis yesterday being a PB, if the field was weaker than norm, it likely isn't better than her 124 previous and she will gradually step up to her natural previous distances and take improvement.

It's a fact of the run was that good something would be amiss so 3 likely options. She's improved. She's a miler. The race was weaker than normal (cannot confirm on japanese form)

if a horse has won a race over a distance faster than any horse EVER before i am pretty sure the distance is not a worry.

 

[HeathySure]

Not sure if it's just because he throws more shit at it but Hayes horses seem to often outperform on the synthetic

he has a synthetic training track at Euroa

 

[iluvparis]

he has a synthetic training track at Euroa

Explains a lot

 

[FallingLiefs]

if a horse has won a race over a distance faster than any horse EVER before i am pretty sure the distance is not a worry.

Sigh, It's relative. For the record Happy Grin broke the previous track record that day beaten into 7th just under 10L at 350:1

Winx could run a track record at 1200 winning by 1L and it wouldn't mean she's a 1200m horse. It would be a fast track and genuinely run race. Same for 3200m by 1L would it mean she was a 3200m horse? Probably not. She would just be a freak who's good over a range of distances and who's best is not actually that distance.


Anyway this is not the debate, the debate is why was she so visually dominant when first up mile which i'm left with the same 3 outcomes. The race was average, she's improved, or...... she's (very slightly) better over the mile. Will wait to see what JRA come up with as trust them more than my eye.

 

[FallingLiefs]

My personal opinion is the race was average, horses shouldn't do that to top fields but just an estimation because she had 10lb on ratings on second horse. She may be slightly better than last year and didn't do her best yesterday and is likely a 2000-2400m horse. So a bit of everything

 

[HeathySure]

My personal opinion is the race was average, horses shouldn't do that to top fields but just an estimation because she had 10lb on ratings on second horse. She may be slightly better than last year and didn't do her best yesterday and is likely a 2000-2400m horse. So a bit of everything

When she wins she is always dominant. You should be querying why she failed and given shes a mare and regumate is not allowed in Japan that might be your answer

 

[FallingLiefs]

When she wins she is always dominant. You should be querying why she failed and given shes a mare and regumate is not allowed in Japan that might be your answer

Alligator Blood likes this

 

[iluvparis]

SIR BACCHUS retired. An ultimate darling of the speed fappers (G1 figures!!!!!) who couldn't even win a National Sprint in Canberra in the end.

 

[Cash is King]

Short favourites been getting rolled all day at Pinjarra. Alta Cinderella is about as good as interest rates

 

[IKnowtheDog]

I wonder who the naming inspiration of Moe Race 1 N4 is

 

[Mazza1234678]

Was thinking of a little flutter today and then I see Moe lol

Would rather play Happy Valley

 

[iluvparis]

Was thinking of a little flutter today and then I see Moe lol

Would rather play Happy Valley

10 of the best at Rocky

#chipsin

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Would rather play Happy Valley

Tomorrow night mate! I know you can’t wait!