Racing Melbourne Cup 2017

[iluvparis]

Looking at antepost markets I have never been less confident about my top selection so close to the race.

Marmelo - poison - ok run but people massively going OTT for it
Almandin - ???? Lloyd?
JV - not even sure he goes - surely doesn't stay 3200 down a well
Wall of Fire - see Marmelo
Red Cardinal - awful last time out
Thomas Hobson - too slow
Rekindling - B grade 3yo poison odds now as people look for anything that hasn't run yet
Tiberian - looks the best value currently as at least has consistent good older horse form
Max Dyanamite - going heaps worse than the year he couldn't beat POP
Nakeeta - not good enough
Big Duke - couldn't win a Sydney Cup

The only ones of those that interest me at the prices is Tiberian. At this stage I'd be looking for a strong Geelong Cup/Lexus winner.

 

[iluvparis]

2 of his last 5 have been pretty good

If you can get $40 on the day its worth the gamble

Fair - it is basically a complete hail mary though unless you have contacts at the stable. Given nothing is likely to line up with consistent form maybe its worth the risk this year.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

One international that hasn’t been mentioned at all is Nakeeta
iluvparis i know how little you rate the Ebor formline
Heartbreak City so close last year, thought there’d have been fapping over Nakeeta with that form
But not a cracker

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Looking at antepost markets I have never been less confident about my top selection so close to the race.

Marmelo - poison - ok run but people massively going OTT for it
Almandin - ???? Lloyd?
JV - not even sure he goes - surely doesn't stay 3200 down a well
Wall of Fire - see Marmelo
Red Cardinal - awful last time out
Thomas Hobson - too slow
Rekindling - B grade 3yo poison odds now as people look for anything that hasn't run yet
Tiberian - looks the best value currently as at least has consistent good older horse form
Max Dyanamite - going heaps worse than the year he couldn't beat POP
Nakeeta - not good enough
Big Duke - couldn't win a Sydney Cup

The only ones of those that interest me at the prices is Tiberian. At this stage I'd be looking for a strong Geelong Cup/Lexus winner.

I’m willing to forgive the run of Red Cardinal, track didn’t suit if I’m correct at Kergolay?

Belmont run was huge against others that were/are going to run at Flemington

Disappointed St Michel isn’t running would have been a great chance

 

[Jugada]

Any chance of Gailo Chop pulling off a Green Moon style win?

 

[Jugada]

I’m willing to forgive the run of Red Cardinal, track didn’t suit if I’m correct at Kergolay?

Belmont run was huge against others that were/are going to run at Flemington

Disappointed St Michel isn’t running would have been a great chance

They walked in the Kergolay and he had no chance

 

[Viva la Mattner]

They walked in the Kergolay and he had no chance

Correct
Bring his best he’ll carve them up
Fingers crossed

 

[iluvparis]

One international that hasn’t been mentioned at all is Nakeeta
iluvparis i know how little you rate the Ebor formline
Heartbreak City so close last year, thought there’d have been fapping over Nakeeta with that form
But not a cracker

Did you watch the Ebor this year? Heartbreak City absolutely flogged them in the Ebor last year bursting clear with a great turn of foot.

Nakeeta came from way back in a massive grindfest and there were 3 or 4 horses across the line together.

Its basically like saying Might And Power's CC and Boom Time's should be rated equal because they won the same race

 

[iluvparis]

I’m willing to forgive the run of Red Cardinal, track didn’t suit if I’m correct at Kergolay?

Lol wut? The only people claiming that are those who were on antepost at poison unders before the Kergolay.

No excuses - beaten pointlessly fair and square.

Belmont win was good but there is zero depth in those US G1s.

As I said earlier - he is the price he is due to the connections. No value there whatsover.

 

[iluvparis]

Any chance of Gailo Chop pulling off a Green Moon style win?

See earlier post re JV and wells

 

[iluvparis]

They walked in the Kergolay and he had no chance

So you're going to back him here and hope you get a decent gallop? Not the walkathons you get about 60-70% of the time these days?

 

[iluvparis]

Correct
Bring his best he’ll carve them up
Fingers crossed

Lol solid overreaction - there a plenty of far superior horses in this line up whose best will kill him.

He was a barely black type UK galloper beating up on D graders in Germany and the US. His one real test back against decent horses in the Kergolay he was belted.

If the pace was so slow in the Kergloay how come Desert Skyline managed to finish second having settled last.

Red Cardinal was AWFUL with NO EXCUSES and will probably start <$10 - yuck

 

[Viva la Mattner]

So you're going to back him here and hope you get a decent gallop? Not the walkathons you get about 60-70% of the time these days?

Don’t put it past Lloyd to run a pacemaker

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Lol solid overreaction - there a plenty of far superior horses in this line up whose best will kill him.

He was a barely black type UK galloper beating up on D graders in Germany and the US. His one real test back against decent horses in the Kergolay he was belted.

If the pace was so slow in the Kergloay how come Desert Skyline managed to finish second having settled last.

Red Cardinal was AWFUL with NO EXCUSES and will probably start <$10 - yuck

I’m happy with my $26 talking through my pocket but hey...

 

[Jugada]

So you're going to back him here and hope you get a decent gallop? Not the walkathons you get about 60-70% of the time these days?

24 horse field will get more speed than that sit and sprint he raced in last time

Plus Lloyd the crook will take care of that anyway

 

[HeathySure]

Everyone looking for something when i think the winner is staring everyone in the face. Almandin as good a thing as i have seen this far out from the race. Forget the Bart Cummings run he beat the same horses with contempt the start before. If something pops out at the Geelong cup then maybe, but its a even money chance in my mind at the moment
And Paris is right, the Caulfield Cup form is poo this year. Can only see Marmelo doing a Protectionist and improving out of sight from that race otherwise all the other horses will be struggling for a top 10 spot

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Everyone looking for something when i think the winner is staring everyone in the face. Almandin as good a thing as i have seen this far out from the race. Forget the Bart Cummings run he beat the same horses with contempt the start before. If something pops out at the Geelong cup then maybe, but its a even money chance in my mind at the moment
And Paris is right, the Caulfield Cup form is poo this year. Can only see Marmelo doing a Protectionist and improving out of sight from that race otherwise all the other horses will be struggling for a top 10 spot

Thing most people are looking for is value
And no doubt at this very moment that is by far and away Tiberian

Perhaps US Army Ranger on the Tote come Cup day

 

[Jugada]

Everyone looking for something when i think the winner is staring everyone in the face. Almandin as good a thing as i have seen this far out from the race. Forget the Bart Cummings run he beat the same horses with contempt the start before. If something pops out at the Geelong cup then maybe, but its a even money chance in my mind at the moment
And Paris is right, the Caulfield Cup form is poo this year. Can only see Marmelo doing a Protectionist and improving out of sight from that race otherwise all the other horses will be struggling for a top 10 spot

He didnt beat the same horses the start before though. He beat a very average bunch after getting all the favours on the rails

 

[HeathySure]

He didnt beat the same horses the start before though. He beat a very average bunch after getting all the favours on the rails

true but he has the record on the board. Already won a MC and it was 4 lengths to 3rd and 2nd horse dead. I dont see any overseas horse that stands out.

 

[Jugada]

true but he has the record on the board. Already won a MC and it was 4 lengths to 3rd and 2nd horse dead. I dont see any overseas horse that stands out.

There are definitely overseas horses at least equal to Heartbreak City coming over

I couldn't even back Almandin to be the first local home after his last start. It was awful

 

[TBellicious]

I'm heading to the TAB tomorrow and nabbing the 15s about Marmelo before his price is slashed after an eye-catching CC run.

Don’t say I didn’t tell you so

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Don’t say I didn’t tell you so

I got 13s kicking myself didn’t take the 31/1 on offer a few weeks back
But always hesitant to back until they get to Werribee and settle in

 

[iluvparis]

24 horse field will get more speed than that sit and sprint he raced in last time

Plus Lloyd the crook will take care of that anyway

Such a slow sit and sprint that the second horse settled at the tail of the field and motored past him in the straight - how is that possible when they went so slow?!?!?!

 

[iluvparis]

He didnt beat the same horses the start before though. He beat a very average bunch after getting all the favours on the rails

#boomtimeboard

 

[iluvparis]

Can all the Red Cardinal fappers seriously look at the Kergolay and not tell me it is an awful run. Compare the run of the second horse with your bratwurst eater and tell me with a straight race it didn't suit.