Racing Melbourne Cup 2017

[Mobythepom]

Lol wut? The only people claiming that are those who were on antepost at poison unders before the Kergolay.

No excuses - beaten pointlessly fair and square.

Belmont win was good but there is zero depth in those US G1s.

As I said earlier - he is the price he is due to the connections. No value there whatsover.

Connections of the horse have said that it wasn't a well horse that day - so that offers some hope. Plenty of confidence behind it (possibly misplaced!) - prior to them seeing what Admire Deus could do they thought it would win the MC
With it's form and trainer I'd be very wary of saying it's price is too short. This is the problem this year.......several of them look too short but this is an open and possibly sub standard renewal so you have to factor that in. The law of averages tells you that 50% of the market will be overs.

My main hopes this year are Wall of Fire, Marmelo, Red Cardinal and Thomas Hobson (if it makes the 24). I can see Wall of Fire certainly starting at a single figure price as people search for something that hasn't blotted it's copybook recently. Awful lot of dead wood this year.

 

[half_back_flank]

On the topic of world class jockeys, Dirty Dean has kicked off Williams for the Amelie's Star ride.

Weir still pissed off at her CC ride this morning on RSN.

 

[GreyCrow]

Subscribed. Thanks for all your expertise gents

Why would a jockey seeing a track for the first time and not know how the locals race be a boost? i would consider it a negative not a positive, i dont care how many group 1s he has won. Have seen so many slaughter jobs by over seas jockeys in the cup i avoid them like the plague

Like many I have built up a few rules over the years and this is one of them. Have to be a stone cold favourite for me to back a 1st time jockey

Not talking about 1st time MC jockey, first time in Oz

 

[Turnover]

Red cardinal looks the one, in watching its two wins over 3k it can certainly sprint at the end of a long distance. All going well in travel and training?? Looks a great bet.

 

[Mobythepom]

Starting to think Thomas Hobson could miss a berth in the 24.
There must be 50/50 chance that the Geelong Cup launches another one into the race meaning that TH would become 34th in the OOE.
Looking at the entries, the horses that look certain to scratch are Bonneval and Inference.
Of the rest the only ones that haven't been given the green light (from what I can see) are:

Hartnell
Who Shot Thebarman
Ventura Storm
Sir Isaac Newton
Libran
Chocante
Assign
Lizzie L'Amour
Annus Mirabilis

The rest seem pretty sure to run baring mishaps.
TH could need 7 of those 9 horses above to come out and maybe 8 if the Geelong Cup adds a runner to the 24.

Anyone shed any more light on running plans?

 

[rideclutch]

Don't like Red Cardinal, even without the Kergolay flop I didn't really fizz up over his US win. Not for me but good luck if you're on at overs.

Realistically I probably shouldn't write him off though, it's just such a vanilla year. Even horses I'd never normally entertain like Rekindling are just gross unders and it puts you off before even doing any form. I like him best of the unseen though, might back him on the day hoping he gets out.

 

[rideclutch]

Yup - screams Fame Game v2 to me where people were absolutely fapping themselves over a run that just wasn't that good and then started poison unders of the day.

Was Wall of Fire in replay - settled way back, scrubbed along 600-700 - run past tired horses late without getting anywhere near the winner. How far back is he going to be at Flemington running like that?

Disagree - was a better effort than Wall Of Fire. WOF had perfect race shape, Marmelo ugly race + track bias.

Poison unders yes, but going through the opposition I can see why.

 

[Mobythepom]

Guessing that they could sacrifice Max Dynamite if they needed to. Possibly Wicklow Brave too, but different owner.
Harlem must also be a doubt to get in as it's one below TH.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

I just hope Katelyn can get Sir Isaac to settle.

If he doesn’t overrace again, is in it up to his ears.

 

[Jugada]

I just hope Katelyn can get Sir Isaac to settle.

If he doesn’t overrace again, is in it up to his ears.

I feel like im missing the punch line

 

[Watts4Dinner]

I just hope Katelyn can get Sir Isaac to settle.

If he doesn’t overrace again, is in it up to his ears.

I’m not sure how you come to that conclusion.

 

[iluvparis]

Connections of the horse have said that it wasn't a well horse that day - so that offers some hope. Plenty of confidence behind it (possibly misplaced!) - prior to them seeing what Admire Deus could do they thought it would win the MC

These connections always do

They thought similar before Articus was flogged at single figures in last years Caulfield Cup and it can't even win a country cup now! I have no doubt it will be tipped up all over the shop by the local personalities as well and will probably start single figures but he is already poison and will only get worse.

Agree that Wall Of Fire/Marmelo are going to only firm from here as most people don't rate the locals and neither has had an observed 'bad run' in Australia. I expect Tiberian to come into $15 or so along the same lines as people desperately search for a fresh form line.

 

[iluvparis]

Red cardinal looks the one, in watching its two wins over 3k it can certainly sprint at the end of a long distance. All going well in travel and training?? Looks a great bet.

Sprinted pretty well in his last 3000m effort

 

[iluvparis]

I just hope Katelyn can get Sir Isaac to settle.

If he doesn’t overrace again, is in it up to his ears.

Punters would burn the grandstands down if it got up.

Last 4 beaten 35-11-6-20

 

[Duritz]

Punters would burn the grandstands down if it got up.

Last 4 beaten 35-11-6-20

Has Boom Time form though.

 

[Mobythepom]

Chocante is heading home and misses the gig, so that's one more to cross off the OOE (#27).
Humidor a lost cause over 3,200 surely, but it's not been ruled out.
Pricing up the market for the likely field I have Wall of Fire as the same price as Marmelo at around 9.0. Whether you think it will win or not, I expect the current price of around 14.0 to look generous on the day.

 

[iluvparis]

Mobythepom - chat yesterday was Humidor is going Cox Plate which would mean 3 runs in 3 weeks if he also ran in the Melbourne Cup - so I'd have him on my doubtful list.

 

[Mobythepom]

Mobythepom - chat yesterday was Humidor is going Cox Plate which would mean 3 runs in 3 weeks if he also ran in the Melbourne Cup - so I'd have him on my doubtful list.

Yeah must be a big doubt. Sensible decision would be to chase prize money in the Cox Plate surely.

 

[Jugada]

Chocante is heading home and misses the gig, so that's one more to cross off the OOE (#27).
Humidor a lost cause over 3,200 surely, but it's not been ruled out.
Pricing up the market for the likely field I have Wall of Fire as the same price as Marmelo at around 9.0. Whether you think it will win or not, I expect the current price of around 14.0 to look generous on the day.

How are you rating Wall Of Fire that short? On International form he has to start longer in the market than both Marmelo and Red Cardinal. Even US Army Ranger had him covered overseas and would SP much shorter in the market

 

[iluvparis]

How are you rating Wall Of Fire that short? On International form he has to start longer in the market than both Marmelo and Red Cardinal. Even US Army Ranger had him covered overseas and would SP much shorter in the market

Red Cardinal awful last time out; US Army Ranger awful all season v Wall Of Fire showing he has turned up and can at least match the locals - obvious he will start shorter for mine.

 

[Jugada]

Red Cardinal awful last time out; US Army Ranger awful all season v Wall Of Fire showing he has turned up and can at least match the locals - obvious he will start shorter for mine.

Red Cardinal flogged him 2 starts ago at Belmont. You cant trash him and then talk up a horse who couldnt get near him.

Well done he can match Gallic Chieftan like every other international would

I reckon he will start shorter as well but what i think he will start in the market and what i rate him are 2 different things

 

[iluvparis]

Red Cardinal flogged him 2 starts ago at Belmont. You cant trash him and then talk up a horse who couldnt get near him.

Yes you can - things change - and Red Cardinal was awful last time out and hasn't run here so has to have some risk premium in his price. Wall Of Fire has run well here beating home one of the great Caulfield Cup winners so his risk premium has been priced out.

Sure if Red Cardinal and Wall Of Fire were both first up here out of Belmont you prices might apply but they aren't so they don't.

It's like how Red Cadeaux would always start way too short here based on his European form where he would be repeatedly flogged by horses he met (and generally beat home) in the Melbourne Cup.

 

[Jugada]

Yes you can - things change - and Red Cardinal was awful last time out and hasn't run here so has to have some risk premium in his price. Wall Of Fire has run well here beating home one of the great Caulfield Cup winners so his risk premium has been priced out.

Sure if Red Cardinal and Wall Of Fire were both first up here out of Belmont you prices might apply but they aren't so they don't.

Solid back flip from a guy who was agreeing Wall of Fire was gross unders at 34s a month ago

 

[Mobythepom]

How are you rating Wall Of Fire that short? On International form he has to start longer in the market than both Marmelo and Red Cardinal. Even US Army Ranger had him covered overseas and would SP much shorter in the market

The British handicapper rates Marmelo as 2lbs superior to WOF. The Racing Post have them as the same horse. Marmelo has to concede 4lbs in the Cup, so don't get why it's a much shorter price given the key ingredient.....ie they appear to have acclimatised and run equally promising trials. I have them both around the 9.0 mark.
Red Cardinal also has to concede 4lbs (roughly equivalent to 4 lengths) and is off the back of a disappointing run and has not proven that it has acclimatised so I'm happy to favour WOF.

 

[Jugada]

Red Cardinal gets in 1kg better off for flogging him at Belmont after starting favourite when Wall of Fire went around at double figures

Seems a solid overreaction to the Kergolay run where he had valid excuses