Back and wide with the tempo against and had an allergic reaction to being eaten by a million bugs that day. If you're using that race as your main form reference for the horse you're going to have a bad time
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Back and wide with the tempo against and had an allergic reaction to being eaten by a million bugs that day. If you're using that race as your main form reference for the horse you're going to have a bad time
iluvparis
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Tempo so much against him that the second horse came from behind him and gave him a solid smashing
A big peak performance coming in the US with his next best form in Germany is enough warning lights if ever you needed them.
Had a good laugh reading about Tiberian's breeding today.
Can obviously gallop but he's bred by a teaser stallion for a sire that I think only I like called Authorized (Complacent, Signoff). They thought they'd throw the teaser a bone with a G2 winning mare and Tiberian is one of his results!
Can obviously gallop but he's bred by a teaser stallion for a sire that I think only I like called Authorized (Complacent, Signoff). They thought they'd throw the teaser a bone with a G2 winning mare and Tiberian is one of his results!
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The points you made would apply exactly the same to Marmelo and he ran fine first up in the Caulfield Cup.[/QUOTE]
As the influence of Northern Hemisphere horses has grown, the complexion of the race has changed. Stamina has become far more important than it used to be. Look at the last 5 years:
2016 Almandin and Heartbreak City finished well clear. Almandin had winning form at 2,400 but had stamina in it's breeding (DI = 0.43) and Heartbreak City had winning form over 3,200m
2015 Slowly run freak year most would agree. Max Dynamite should really have won and had winning form over 3,200m
2014 Protectionist beat Red Cadeaux. Protectionist had won over 3,000m and was bred to stay (DI = 0.65) Red Cadeaux had clearly had top class form over 3,200m!
2013 Fiorente beat Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos. First two home had previously finished 2nd in Melbourne Cups so 3,200m not a problem, Mount Athos had won over 3,200m
2012 Green Moon beat Fiorente. Green Moon had won at 2,300m and was bred to stay (DI = 0.55), Fiorente had winning form over 2,400m and was bred to stay (DI = 0.54)
It seems pretty clear that unless we get a slowly run sit and sprint you need either winning form in the bag over 3,200m or you need to won at around 2,400m+ and be bred to stay. Dosage Index is the best guide we have as to whether a horse can run out a longer distance. Using 1.5 as a maximum is a fair guide for 3,200m
Looking at this year's field in numerical order to see which horses qualify....
Boom Time NO. Won at 2,400m but DI =3.0
Amelie's Star. Won at 2,400m but DI =2.33
Hartnell 3,200m winner and DI 0.86
Almandin YES 3,200m winner and DI 0.43
Jon Snow NO. DI = Won at 2,400m but DI =2.0
Humidor NO. Not won over 2,400m+ though interestingly DI is quite low at 1.0
Tiberian NO. Won at 3,000m but DI = 3.0
Rekindling YES 2,800m winner and DI = 0.8
Red Cardinal YES 3,200m winner and DI = 0.73
Marmelo YES 3,000m winner and DI = 0.77
Single Gaze NO. Not won over 2,400 and DI = 3.0. No on both counts!
Johannes Vermeer. NO. Not won over 2,400m though a DI of 0.66 and Caulfield Cup run give some hope.
WTSB. YES. Won at 3,200m and DI 1.4
Max Dynamite. YES. Won at 3,200m and DI 1.29
Ventura Storm. YES? Won at 2,400m and DI 1.50. Slight doubt as DI figure is at upper reaches and no winning form beyond 2,400m
Wicklow Brave. YES Won at 2800m and DI 0.73
Bondi Beach. YES. Won at 2,800m and DI = 0.78
USAR. YES. YES Won at 2,400m and D 0.52
Big Duke. NO. Won at 2,600m but DI = 1.91
Gallante. YES. Won at 3,200m and DI = 0.82
Libran. YES. Won at 2,600m and DI = 0.82
Qewy. YES. Won at 3,200m though DI of 1.86 is high
Nakeeta. YES. Won at 2,800m and DI = 0.64
Wall of Fire. YES. Won at 2,800m and DI = 0.52
Abbey Marie. NO. Not won at 2,400m+ and DI = 3.0
Thomas Hobson. YES. Won at 4,000m and DI = 1.13
Harlem YES. Won at 2,400m and DI = 1.25
DI is not an exact science but that figure of 3.0 on Tiberian is enough to put me off!
WTSB is the best roughie for me. Place only. 9yo but there is a precedent for stayers to hold their form at that age. Doesn't appear to be deteriorating just yet and is well weighted this year.
The next question is will we get a truly run race? Where will the pace come from?
As the influence of Northern Hemisphere horses has grown, the complexion of the race has changed. Stamina has become far more important than it used to be. Look at the last 5 years:
2016 Almandin and Heartbreak City finished well clear. Almandin had winning form at 2,400 but had stamina in it's breeding (DI = 0.43) and Heartbreak City had winning form over 3,200m
2015 Slowly run freak year most would agree. Max Dynamite should really have won and had winning form over 3,200m
2014 Protectionist beat Red Cadeaux. Protectionist had won over 3,000m and was bred to stay (DI = 0.65) Red Cadeaux had clearly had top class form over 3,200m!
2013 Fiorente beat Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos. First two home had previously finished 2nd in Melbourne Cups so 3,200m not a problem, Mount Athos had won over 3,200m
2012 Green Moon beat Fiorente. Green Moon had won at 2,300m and was bred to stay (DI = 0.55), Fiorente had winning form over 2,400m and was bred to stay (DI = 0.54)
It seems pretty clear that unless we get a slowly run sit and sprint you need either winning form in the bag over 3,200m or you need to won at around 2,400m+ and be bred to stay. Dosage Index is the best guide we have as to whether a horse can run out a longer distance. Using 1.5 as a maximum is a fair guide for 3,200m
Looking at this year's field in numerical order to see which horses qualify....
Boom Time NO. Won at 2,400m but DI =3.0
Amelie's Star. Won at 2,400m but DI =2.33
Hartnell 3,200m winner and DI 0.86
Almandin YES 3,200m winner and DI 0.43
Jon Snow NO. DI = Won at 2,400m but DI =2.0
Humidor NO. Not won over 2,400m+ though interestingly DI is quite low at 1.0
Tiberian NO. Won at 3,000m but DI = 3.0
Rekindling YES 2,800m winner and DI = 0.8
Red Cardinal YES 3,200m winner and DI = 0.73
Marmelo YES 3,000m winner and DI = 0.77
Single Gaze NO. Not won over 2,400 and DI = 3.0. No on both counts!
Johannes Vermeer. NO. Not won over 2,400m though a DI of 0.66 and Caulfield Cup run give some hope.
WTSB. YES. Won at 3,200m and DI 1.4
Max Dynamite. YES. Won at 3,200m and DI 1.29
Ventura Storm. YES? Won at 2,400m and DI 1.50. Slight doubt as DI figure is at upper reaches and no winning form beyond 2,400m
Wicklow Brave. YES Won at 2800m and DI 0.73
Bondi Beach. YES. Won at 2,800m and DI = 0.78
USAR. YES. YES Won at 2,400m and D 0.52
Big Duke. NO. Won at 2,600m but DI = 1.91
Gallante. YES. Won at 3,200m and DI = 0.82
Libran. YES. Won at 2,600m and DI = 0.82
Qewy. YES. Won at 3,200m though DI of 1.86 is high
Nakeeta. YES. Won at 2,800m and DI = 0.64
Wall of Fire. YES. Won at 2,800m and DI = 0.52
Abbey Marie. NO. Not won at 2,400m+ and DI = 3.0
Thomas Hobson. YES. Won at 4,000m and DI = 1.13
Harlem YES. Won at 2,400m and DI = 1.25
DI is not an exact science but that figure of 3.0 on Tiberian is enough to put me off!
WTSB is the best roughie for me. Place only. 9yo but there is a precedent for stayers to hold their form at that age. Doesn't appear to be deteriorating just yet and is well weighted this year.
The next question is will we get a truly run race? Where will the pace come from?
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Big duke sneaking under the radar. Almost forget it went around at the valley, never got a clear run at them, looks like will get the trip and seems it wont be an issue if wet
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And he’s got the right trainer
As the influence of Northern Hemisphere horses has grown, the complexion of the race has changed. Stamina has become far more important than it used to be. Look at the last 5 years:
2016 Almandin and Heartbreak City finished well clear. Almandin had winning form at 2,400 but had stamina in it's breeding (DI = 0.43) and Heartbreak City had winning form over 3,200m
2015 Slowly run freak year most would agree. Max Dynamite should really have won and had winning form over 3,200m
2014 Protectionist beat Red Cadeaux. Protectionist had won over 3,000m and was bred to stay (DI = 0.65) Red Cadeaux had clearly had top class form over 3,200m!
2013 Fiorente beat Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos. First two home had previously finished 2nd in Melbourne Cups so 3,200m not a problem, Mount Athos had won over 3,200m
2012 Green Moon beat Fiorente. Green Moon had won at 2,300m and was bred to stay (DI = 0.55), Fiorente had winning form over 2,400m and was bred to stay (DI = 0.54)
It seems pretty clear that unless we get a slowly run sit and sprint you need either winning form in the bag over 3,200m or you need to won at around 2,400m+ and be bred to stay. Dosage Index is the best guide we have as to whether a horse can run out a longer distance. Using 1.5 as a maximum is a fair guide for 3,200m
Looking at this year's field in numerical order to see which horses qualify....
Boom Time NO. Won at 2,400m but DI =3.0
Amelie's Star. Won at 2,400m but DI =2.33
Hartnell 3,200m winner and DI 0.86
Almandin YES 3,200m winner and DI 0.43
Jon Snow NO. DI = Won at 2,400m but DI =2.0
Humidor NO. Not won over 2,400m+ though interestingly DI is quite low at 1.0
Tiberian NO. Won at 3,000m but DI = 3.0
Rekindling YES 2,800m winner and DI = 0.8
Red Cardinal YES 3,200m winner and DI = 0.73
Marmelo YES 3,000m winner and DI = 0.77
Single Gaze NO. Not won over 2,400 and DI = 3.0. No on both counts!
Johannes Vermeer. NO. Not won over 2,400m though a DI of 0.66 and Caulfield Cup run give some hope.
WTSB. YES. Won at 3,200m and DI 1.4
Max Dynamite. YES. Won at 3,200m and DI 1.29
Ventura Storm. YES? Won at 2,400m and DI 1.50. Slight doubt as DI figure is at upper reaches and no winning form beyond 2,400m
Wicklow Brave. YES Won at 2800m and DI 0.73
Bondi Beach. NO. Won at 2,800m but DI = 2.0
USAR. YES. YES Won at 2,400m and D 0.52
Big Duke. NO. Won at 2,600m but DI = 1.91
Gallante. YES. Won at 3,200m and DI = 0.82
Libran. YES. Won at 2,600m and DI = 0.82
Qewy. YES. Won at 3,200m though DI of 1.86 is high
Nakeeta. YES. Won at 2,800m and DI = 0.64
Wall of Fire. YES. Won at 2,800m and DI = 0.52
Abbey Marie. NO. Not won at 2,400m+ and DI = 3.0
Thomas Hobson. YES. Won at 4,000m and DI = 1.13
Harlem YES. Won at 2,400m and DI = 1.25
DI is not an exact science but that figure of 3.0 on Tiberian is enough to put me off!
WTSB is the best roughie for me. Place only. 9yo but there is a precedent for stayers to hold their form at that age. Doesn't appear to be deteriorating just yet and is well weighted this year.
The next question is will we get a truly run race? Where will the pace come from?[/QUOTE]
The DI figures are no more accurate then a cursory glance at the pedigree. According to Pedigree Query, Makybe Diva’s DI is 2.30, but she had a habit of popping up in these sorts of races...
Dunaden’s is 3.80.
I know from harsh experience the limitations of it, having owned a few with decent DI who couldn’t stay the trip on a greyhound track.
I think the figure you’ve quoted for Bondi Beach may be wrong - Pedigree Query have it at 0.78.
Mobythepom
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The DI figures are no more accurate then a cursory glance at the pedigree. According to Pedigree Query, Makybe Diva’s DI is 2.30, but she had a habit of popping up in these sorts of races...
Dunaden’s is 3.80.
I know from harsh experience the limitations of it, having owned a few with decent DI who couldn’t stay the trip on a greyhound track.
I think the figure you’ve quoted for Bondi Beach may be wrong - Pedigree Query have it at 0.78.[/QUOTE]
Yeah agree the 0.78 on Bondi Beach......that puts him in the Yes camp.
Horses like Dunaden will come along every now and then that outrun their DI figure (Red Cadeaux was quite high too at 1.67). Dunaden clung on in the renewal it won from Red Cadeaux and bombed out twice afterwards. Not saying it wasn't a worthy winner on the day but I'm not sure that stamina won the day that renewal.
It's definitely got it's limitations but for every Dunaden there are many more Jameka's (DI = 3.0)
GreyCrow
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I must admit to not being across DI figures before but the above point you made is something I think most of us did when checking fields. Zabeel (Jezabeel) was the one I usually looked for and if it was by Sir Tristram (Empire Rose, Gurners Lane and GrandSire to Jezabeel)
Almandin and Protectionist share the same Sire and GrandSire. So those 2 now get put into the memory bank. Little things like this to give an edge. But quantifying it in DI , I dont mind
Mobythepom
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In Makybe Diva's day there weren't a dozen stamina laden European horses to beat. That's going to upset a few people
GreyCrow
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Which is where I think the DIs do come in handy. Just getting across them all , for casuals , is difficultIn Makybe Diva's day there weren't a dozen stamina laden European horses to beat. That's going to upset a few people
Mobythepom
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Interesting that Abbey Marie and Single Gaze are the only runners to fail both criteria. Wouldn't be rushing in to backing those two if there's a decent pace.
Where will the pace come from? No Big Orange types this year. Have to assume US Army Ranger and /or Bondi Beach are going to be asked to take them along. I can see Willie using Wicklow Brave or even Max to help set it up for Thomas Hobson if needed too.
Must be some sort of a chance that Wicklow or Max will be taken out if TH needs one to step aside. Possibly Max given same ownership. It may have run a decent 400m at Weribee but it's been way below form since it came 2nd in the race a couple of years ago. Looks way too short in the market to me.
Doubt is not an option
iluvparis
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Lol sorry mate but if we are going down the voodoo path of dosage there's no point even entering into a discussion
iluvparis
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Not many fail to win a Sydney Cup and come out and win a Melbourne Cup let alone get belted in the Moonee Valley Cup as their last lead up. Looked very plain on Saturday - doubt he is good enough.
Mobythepom
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Lol sorry mate but if we are going down the voodoo path of dosage there's no point even entering into a discussion
One word. Dinosaur
Fight, Fight, Fight. 
iluvparis
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Looking at the list you barely have to do any calcs anyway - raiders and imports qualify - locals don't - I should package this up and sell it
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All I read was that Ventura Storm is twice the stayer Makybe Diva was.
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Going for history. Launceston cup/ Melbourne cup in the same year.
I just carn't back a horse with Launceston form.
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Is he still going through the Lexus? Weir reckoned after the MV Cup on Saturday he'd go to the Lexus as his run was "shithouse" and needed another run after a pretty weak outing.
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Not sure but is 19th in order of entry, so is already in the field.
If he runs in the lexus, then goes to the cup it would be his 3rd run in 10 days.
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Yeah I think there was 3 confirmed Melbourne Cup entrants looking at having a hit out in the Lexus. Guess we'll find out today (tomorrow?) with final fields.
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Duke goes straight to MC according to connections yesterday.
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